Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

"KeyFin wrote:

I'm not disputing that...but it also has no bearing since Burrow is just as likely to be a bust as Tua or any of those other picks.

If your a Gm and you truly believe in a guy
you must be all in!

"KeyFin wrote:

I'm not disputing that...but it also has no bearing since Burrow is just as likely to be a bust as Tua or any of those other picks.

I don't think he's as likely to be a bust as Tua. I think Tua and Burrow have an equal chance at being a bust talent/skill wise but Tua has about twenty times the chance to be a bust physically due to that injury, either from reaggravating it or simply by not being as fast as he used to be.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Most of those guys were never considered NFL prospects though.

Winning the Heisman doesnt say anything about whether you'll fail or succeed IMO.

I'd also argue a few on your list were successful enough to not be on the list of failures.

What???

Most of those guys were 1st round picks.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, I really don’t but has anyone actually taken a look at the history of Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks in the league?

I’ll give Murray, Mayfield and even Jackson a pass thus far (even though Jackson has been to the playoffs twice already) but the list of these college elites?

Mariotta
Winston
Manziel
Griffin III
Newton
Bradford
Tebow
Smith
Leinart
Palmer
Crouch
Weinke
Wuerffel
Ward
Torretta
Detmer
Ware
Testaverde
Flutie

with the exception of a couple that had some flashes, this is a list of who’s who in NFL failures. And keep in mind, everyone was just as excited about each and every one of them as folks are excited about Burrow.

All I’m saying is Heisman quarterbacks don’t have a good history in the league

Half of that list had respectable NFL careers. 1st rd QBs in general don't do any better. And Burrow is the only one to win a National Championship and have a season like he just did. Good odds I think.

"KeyFin wrote:

Folks say they're okay with trading up for Burrow, but let's ask this a different way. Would you trade-

- Tua
- a top 3 tackle in the draft
- the best RB in the draft
- a top 5 DE/DT/NT in the draft
- the top LT/LB/CB/DE or S in the draft in 20201

for

- Burrow

It sounds great when we're looking at straight up numbers, but once you realize the talent we're passing on it's a completely different story in my book. So even though I'd love to have Burrow, I don't know if he's worth that much if Tua gets a clean bill of health. It's a very tough decision that will literally shape the face of our franchise for the next 10 seasons.

Or think about it like this.

Would you trade, #5 + Tunsil+ Minkah Fitzpatrick for Joe Burrow, the future?

I'd run you over with my truck to get that to the podium.

Would you do that for Tua?

I think you trade that bevy of picks acquired to move up to #1 and get Burrow, if the Bengals are responsive.

"Galant wrote:

Per Benjamin Albright of PFN:

“The Dolphins have no interest in trading up for Joe Burrow nor for the 1st overall pick. The Dolphins are supposedly in on QB Tua Tagovailoa and are looking to move up to the 3rd overall pick - or 2nd - if it is neccesary.”

— Alejandro 🇨🇴 (@MiamiAlejandro) January 18, 2020

How stupid can they be to let that info out, if it's true? Almost guaranteed that we get leveraged to have to move up, if this info is true.

"Galant wrote:

Per Benjamin Albright of PFN:

“The Dolphins have no interest in trading up for Joe Burrow nor for the 1st overall pick. The Dolphins are supposedly in on QB Tua Tagovailoa and are looking to move up to the 3rd overall pick - or 2nd - if it is neccesary.”

— Alejandro 🇨🇴 (@MiamiAlejandro) January 18, 2020

Ain't no way Washington is trading down further than the third pick. They really want Chase Young.

"cbrad wrote:

Trading up one spot to #4 actually has merit. We could do that with a 4th, and at worst a 3rd if a bidding war starts. The reason is because trading up to #3 is truly prohibitive for other teams if you go by draft pick value charts:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Even if those charts aren't totally accurate, the point remains that the jump to #3 is generally much harder than to #4, especially for the Chargers who pick right after us and might pick a QB since Rivers is on his last legs. They'd have to give up their 2nd (or a future 1st) and a good deal more if a bidding war starts just to get to #3, not to mention the cost is much higher for QB needy teams down the list.

So as a GM I might try trading up one spot to #4 if a 4th rounder suffices. I still think Tua will fall to 5, but might as well be safe(r).

Interesting. I think we had an opportunity to move to #4 with little compensation. we just let two of our coaches go, seemingly with out compensation, to the team that currently holds the #4 pick. is it possible that we have an agreement in place with the Giants in the case of a panic moment?

"resnor wrote:

Wasn't Bo Jackson's career cut short cause he dislocated his hip? I know medicine has improved since then, but still...

Bo's injury, though a dislocation, was different than Tua's. If i remember correctly he did develop AVN and that was the issue. could be wrong on that.

"DOLPHAN1 wrote:

Bo's injury, though a dislocation, was different than Tua's. If i remember correctly he did develop AVN and that was the issue. could be wrong on that.

Actually Bo's injury was not initially as bad as Tua's. It was a partial dislocation. Tua had a complete dislocation and fractured his hip socket. Yes medicine has advanced some since the 80s, but I would not take a chance on Tua. That is a major injury which not many people come back from. He has already shown he cannot hold up physically in college even with a pretty good oline. What makes us think he will not be injury prone in the NFL?

"resnor wrote:

How stupid can they be to let that info out, if it's true? Almost guaranteed that we get leveraged to have to move up, if this info is true.

I doubt that was said with any knowledge and is merely conjecture.

"resnor wrote:

How stupid can they be to let that info out, if it's true? Almost guaranteed that we get leveraged to have to move up, if this info is true.

If we have learned anything this year from the staff we have now, any of this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt because they do not let information out

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Tell me how many of the draft picks we've used in the last ten years are still with the team and then I'll answer your question.

You can't keep bringing up past history, it has no bearing on this year. Grier might have had some influence but not a lot and we have a much better FO in place. The draft is always a crap shoot and there are no guarantees regardless of where you draft.

"Patster1969 wrote:

You can't keep bringing up past history, it has no bearing on this year.

Sure it does. It shows that ownership has no history of hiring GMs that know what the hell they're doing. Why should I think this GM is any better?

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Sure it does. It shows that ownership has no history of hiring GMs that know what the hell they're doing. Why should I think this GM is any better?

Appreciate that but what else can we do. I think Flores has a great handle on what he wants (he's done a great job on the waiver wire & raiding practise squads) and MacKenzie & Allen also have a good track record. Also, if you have a look at the last few drafts, Grier has done ok (even if a few of these have been traded to other teams).
They have absolutely got to knock it out of the park but I am optimistic.

"Patster1969 wrote:

Appreciate that but what else can we do. I think Flores has a great handle on what he wants (he's done a great job on the waiver wire & raiding practise squads) and MacKenzie & Allen also have a good track record. Also, if you have a look at the last few drafts, Grier has done ok (even if a few of these have been traded to other teams).
They have absolutely got to knock it out of the park but I am optimistic.

The way I see it, with all these picks the Phins got, they should be SB favorites in about 4years. If that does not happen than Grier will be exposed for who he truly is....

The Titans draft picks in 2015 are finally paying off 4 years later, lets see how the Dolphins do.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Sure it does. It shows that ownership has no history of hiring GMs that know what the hell they're doing. Why should I think this GM is any better?

If you flip a coin and it lands on heads 9 times in row, then flip again ... it's still a 50/50 shot between heads and tails.

"texanphinatic wrote:

If you flip a coin and it lands on heads 9 times in row, then flip again ... it's still a 50/50 shot between heads and tails.

This isn't random chance. Our personnel choices would have been better if we'd thrown darts at names on a board.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Sure it does. It shows that ownership has no history of hiring GMs that know what the hell they're doing. Why should I think this GM is any better?

All Grier has really proven, to this point, is that he can disassemble a roster...soundly proven. His trade-offs of talent weren't impressive. I don't give him any credit for the Tunsil windfall...that was straight up Houston desperation. Hopefully the "by committee" GM'ing can have a much better showing going forward. I have faith in Flo, at least.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

This isn't random chance. Our personnel choices would have been better if we'd thrown darts at names on a board.

We are hardly unique in that regard however. Sports is littered with failure. The point is, that we may have had some subpar GMs and coaches doesn't mean Flores and/or Grier will fail.

"texanphinatic wrote:

We are hardly unique in that regard however. Sports is littered with failure. The point is, that we may have had some subpar GMs and coaches doesn't mean Flores and/or Grier will fail.

Sports is indeed littered with failure. But we've had consistent draft failures for the better part of fifteen years now. There are few franchises who've shown this sort of ineptitude at personnel decisions, and the one constant that whole time has been Stephen Ross.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Sports is indeed littered with failure. But we've had consistent draft failures for the better part of fifteen years now. There are few franchises who've shown this sort of ineptitude at personnel decisions, and the one constant that whole time has been Stephen Ross.

For me it is like people have never had jobs before.

I have seen many situations where there person in top makes terrible decisions and the people underneath are good at thier job.

If Grier messes up the next few years he is too blame. For the past I do not know

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

All Grier has really proven, to this point, is that he can disassemble a roster...soundly proven. His trade-offs of talent weren't impressive. I don't give him any credit for the Tunsil windfall...that was straight up Houston desperation. Hopefully the "by committee" GM'ing can have a much better showing going forward. I have faith in Flo, at least.

Tunsil windfall only happened because Grier contacted them about Stills