Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

"KeyFin wrote:

I am a huge Burrow fan but I'm pretty sure I hate this idea. Three 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd to move up 4 spots? That's a massive gamble and I would personally pass. I'm just super conservative when it comes to picks and rebuilding.

At the same time though, I don't think I'd ultimately be upset if Miami pulled the trigger...Burrow is one of the most complete prospects I've seen in a very long time. I think his game will translate to the NFL and he could be a 15 year starter.

It's really only 2 firsts, because we're getting a 1st back.

It is worth it if Burrow ends up a stud and is your franchise QB for 15 years.

"resnor wrote:

It's really only 2 firsts, because we're getting a 1st back.

It is worth it if Burrow ends up a stud and is your franchise QB for 15 years.

My aversion isnt to Burrow himself. It's that we could have had Burrow plus the additional picks if we really wanted them.

Instead we have decided that the wins were more important than the picks, which I think is silly.

The trade itself could turn out fine if we did it but I'd still consider it something we did to hinder ourselves.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

My aversion isnt to Burrow himself. It's that we could have had Burrow plus the additional picks if we really wanted them.

Instead we have decided that the wins were more important than the picks, which I think is silly.

The trade itself could turn out fine if we did it but I'd still consider it something we did to hinder ourselves.

You can't ask a coach and players to intentionally lose and go 0-16. That's just an unrealistic "fantasy" scenario. Having Flores show the potential of being an excellent coach is worth four draft spots anyway.

If Grier and Flores feel strongly enough to put their careers on the line like this, then more power to them. Make no mistake, giving up a boatload of picks like that is a career defining move. Either it works great and Burrow leads us to dominance over the AFC East and regular title contention, or it's a failure and Burrow is middling to bad over a 4-5 year span with Grier and Flores gone by year 3-4 of the Burrow era.

I'd still say this is likely smoke and due diligence rather than serious discussions. Either the Bengals feel as strongly about another QB as they do Burrow, in which case, why don't we? Or they just aren't sold on Burrow, in which case, why are we? You don't pass on an elite potential QB for mid/late rounders if you need a QB. If the Bengals make that trade and Burrow immediately leads us to the playoffs, how does any Bengals fan not revolt immediately?

"texanphinatic wrote:

You can't ask a coach and players to intentionally lose and go 0-16. That's just an unrealistic "fantasy" scenario. Having Flores show the potential of being an excellent coach is worth four draft spots anyway.

If Grier and Flores feel strongly enough to put their careers on the line like this, then more power to them. Make no mistake, giving up a boatload of picks like that is a career defining move. Either it works great and Burrow leads us to dominance over the AFC East and regular title contention, or it's a failure and Burrow is middling to bad over a 4-5 year span with Grier and Flores gone by year 3-4 of the Burrow era.

That's if it is coming from them. Ross might feel the need to step in and make a decision. This is a turning point for the team. The Pats are starting to fade, the Bills have stepped up but still aren't dominant. The time is right to try to make the leap.

"texanphinatic wrote:

You can't ask a coach and players to intentionally lose and go 0-16. That's just an unrealistic "fantasy" scenario. Having Flores show the potential of being an excellent coach is worth four draft spots anyway.

If Grier and Flores feel strongly enough to put their careers on the line like this, then more power to them. Make no mistake, giving up a boatload of picks like that is a career defining move. Either it works great and Burrow leads us to dominance over the AFC East and regular title contention, or it's a failure and Burrow is middling to bad over a 4-5 year span with Grier and Flores gone by year 3-4 of the Burrow era.

I'd still say this is likely smoke and due diligence rather than serious discussions. Either the Bengals feel as strongly about another QB as they do Burrow, in which case, why don't we? Or they just aren't sold on Burrow, in which case, why are we? You don't pass on an elite potential QB for mid/late rounders if you need a QB. If the Bengals make that trade and Burrow immediately leads us to the playoffs, how does any Bengals fan not revolt immediately?

Being realistic, all we had to do was not start Fitz because we got the exact win count the majority if us predicted if he started.

Basically as much as I love Fitz, I consider his signing to be a potential mistake. I'd personally have been much happier starting Rosen even if he bombed horribly.

Of course when we signed Fitz we didnt have Rosen.

At the end if the day, to me there is no way to justify giving up a ransom you absolutely didnt have to. Its poor vision for the future.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Being realistic, all we had to do was not start Fitz because we got the exact win count the majority if us predicted if he started.

Basically as much as I love Fitz, I consider his signing to be a potential mistake. I'd personally have been much happier starting Rosen even if he bombed horribly.

Of course when we signed Fitz we didnt have Rosen.

At the end if the day, to me there is no way to justify giving up a ransom you absolutely didnt have to. Its poor vision for the future.

I won't dispute that last statement - it's a huge risk. However, I just don't think there is any way to force a coach to intentionally lose. If Grier came down to Flores' office and said "you aren't sucking bad enough, bench Fitz" and got any other response other than "F you man" then we hired the wrong guy. Again, the idea of an organizationally wide tank in the NFL just is not feasible and is a fan construct. I understand the academic disappointment behind the struggles of the offseason and start to the season not leading to a #1 overall, but I would still rather be us than any of the teams ahead of us.

Once we beat the Jests, if I was Ross, I'd have demanded that Rosen start the rest of the way to 'see if he is the future at QB'. I'd have started Fitzmagic at the end to try and mess over the Pats too -IF the #1 pick was secured.

On the other hand, the team grew to believe in Flores and we saw a lot from Preston Williams. Parker saved his entire NFL career (or at least his career in Miami) thanks to Fitz building up his confidence with all those contested catches. Parker is probably a bust playing most of the season with Rosen. So we actually SAVED a draft pick need by having Fitz play most of the season.

Whether Burrow, Tua, or someone else, as long as Miami can get a QB of the future I'll be thrilled.

"texanphinatic wrote:

I won't dispute that last statement - it's a huge risk. However, I just don't think there is any way to force a coach to intentionally lose. If Grier came down to Flores' office and said "you aren't sucking bad enough, bench Fitz" and got any other response other than "F you man" then we hired the wrong guy. Again, the idea of an organizationally wide tank in the NFL just is not feasible and is a fan construct. I understand the academic disappointment behind the struggles of the offseason and start to the season not leading to a #1 overall, but I would still rather be us than any of the teams ahead of us.

Like I said I'm not necessarily advocating losing on purpose.

It's not as cut and dry as that to me. You can also say we spent a 2nd round pick on Rosen and he needs to be given a chance to play, at least at some point.

We didnt need to go 0-16 necessarily, a loss to the Bengals gives them another win for instance.

I'm not necessarily arguing the logistics of losing, just that its painful to give up a lot of value you didnt necessarily have to.

We could have drafted Burrow and used those picks to surround him with talent. Instead, if we made this trade it's just Burriw.

Dont get me wrong, I'd take Burrow but getting him on such poor value would stink.

How weird for Etienne and Najee Harris to play in their senior season... i know Saban gave Najee the Heisman talk.. Alabama plans on running the ball more next season and be less reliant on their pass..

But they were both first round picks IMO..

"KeyFin wrote:

I am a huge Burrow fan but I'm pretty sure I hate this idea. Three 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd to move up 4 spots? That's a massive gamble and I would personally pass. I'm just super conservative when it comes to picks and rebuilding.

At the same time though, I don't think I'd ultimately be upset if Miami pulled the trigger...Burrow is one of the most complete prospects I've seen in a very long time. I think his game will translate to the NFL and he could be a 15 year starter.

I feel Burrow we be the next Joe Montana.
If the offer is on the table take it.Never seen a college kid with such poise in big game after big game like this kid.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

My aversion isnt to Burrow himself. It's that we could have had Burrow plus the additional picks if we really wanted them.

Instead we have decided that the wins were more important than the picks, which I think is silly.

The trade itself could turn out fine if we did it but I'd still consider it something we did to hinder ourselves.

Wins are not silly, the right thing to do is always play to win and then take the cards as they are dealt - that is how successful teams do it. This is exactly what we haven't done for 20 years. Instead we have had no plan but instead gone for the shiny toy, which has got us precisely nowhere

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Being realistic, all we had to do was not start Fitz because we got the exact win count the majority if us predicted if he started.

Basically as much as I love Fitz, I consider his signing to be a potential mistake. I'd personally have been much happier starting Rosen even if he bombed horribly.

Of course when we signed Fitz we didnt have Rosen.

At the end if the day, to me there is no way to justify giving up a ransom you absolutely didnt have to. Its poor vision for the future.

By not starting Fitz, we would not have been able to evaluate the entire offense. Instead, we would have been nowhere close to seeing what we had, particularly in Parker and Gesicki. Also, if we had started Rosen and it been a dumpster fire, the majority of the fanbase would have been calling for Flores' head plus Rosen would likely have been destroyed, physically and mentally

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Like I said I'm not necessarily advocating losing on purpose.

It's not as cut and dry as that to me. You can also say we spent a 2nd round pick on Rosen and he needs to be given a chance to play, at least at some point.

We didnt need to go 0-16 necessarily, a loss to the Bengals gives them another win for instance.

I'm not necessarily arguing the logistics of losing, just that its painful to give up a lot of value you didnt necessarily have to.

We could have drafted Burrow and used those picks to surround him with talent. Instead, if we made this trade it's just Burriw.

Dont get me wrong, I'd take Burrow but getting him on such poor value would stink.

But what is the point of starting someone who clearly isn't ready to lead the team. He may well have needed the year to get his head round it, particularly as he was chucked into a worse situation as a rookie - at least the Dolphins got better by the end of the season, you cannot say the same about the 2018 Cardinals. With a season sitting behind and learning from Fitz, you may well see a completely different Josh Rosen (also, isn't he younger than Burrow?)

"pumpdogs wrote:

I feel Burrow we be the next Joe Montana.
If the offer is on the table take it.Never seen a college kid with such poise in big game after big game like this kid.

That's why I really like him as well (besides the physical and mental attributes)- they ended up beating 7 out of the top 10 teams this season and the only time I saw him rattled at all was early in the 3rd quarter versus Clemson (which is understandable since he got leveled). His pocket presence is fantastic and I absolutely love his instincts; he's so decisive out there and literally doesn't miss a beat. Folks have said he doesn't have the strongest arm and I do agree, but he can make every throw accurately and seems to have excellent vision.

I'll be honest- I haven't watched a ton of college ball before this season so I can't make fair comparisons to Mahomes, Jackson, etc. when they were in college. Joe Burrow is probably the best all-around college QB I've ever seen though and I've been singing his praises all year long. I think the part that impresses me the most is that he only started that one season...the kid is still raw and so much of what he does is just natural instinct. Heck, he looks like a baby and when that kids develops, I have a feeling that he will be one of the next all-time greats.

But again, I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to college quarterbacks....that's just what I see with the eye-test after watching every game this season. He plays like a veteran NFL quarterback out there with his poise and confidence- I'm just nuts over him. But at the same time, I WOULDN'T trade the farm to get him because grading QB's isn't my thing...I could be completely wrong and I wouldn't trust myself to make that decision. If Miami pulls the trigger though then I'd be ecstatic!

Fair warning....if I see anyone who screamed at us for tanking when we weren't, but then lament the fact that we didn't....I will rain down hellfire.......

ok, maybe not rain down hellfire, but I will silently judge the shit out of you.

"Fin D wrote:

Fair warning....if I see anyone who screamed at us for tanking when we weren't, but then lament the fact that we didn't....I will rain down hellfire.......

ok, maybe not rain down hellfire, but I will silently judge the **** out of you.

I had no problem with tanking, though I did and still do have my doubts about trading away our talent for picks because I don't think we're going to use them wisely.
I would trade for Burrow. I think it's a wise use of the picks. Or I would draft BPA and take a QB later. I would NOT draft Tua at 5 or, God forbid, trade up for him. But I think they're going to do it. Which brings me back to my problem with trading all that talent...

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I had no problem with tanking, though I did and still do have my doubts about trading away our talent for picks because I don't think we're going to use them wisely.
I would trade for Burrow. I think it's a wise use of the picks. Or I would draft BPA and take a QB later. I would NOT draft Tua at 5 or, God forbid, trade up for him. But I think they're going to do it. Which brings me back to my problem with trading all that talent...

Tua will be great.

"KeyFin wrote:

That's why I really like him as well (besides the physical and mental attributes)- they ended up beating 7 out of the top 10 teams this season and the only time I saw him rattled at all was early in the 3rd quarter versus Clemson (which is understandable since he got leveled). His pocket presence is fantastic and I absolutely love his instincts; he's so decisive out there and literally doesn't miss a beat. Folks have said he doesn't have the strongest arm and I do agree, but he can make every throw accurately and seems to have excellent vision.

I'll be honest- I haven't watched a ton of college ball before this season so I can't make fair comparisons to Mahomes, Jackson, etc. when they were in college. Joe Burrow is probably the best all-around college QB I've ever seen though and I've been singing his praises all year long. I think the part that impresses me the most is that he only started that one season...the kid is still raw and so much of what he does is just natural instinct. Heck, he looks like a baby and when that kids develops, I have a feeling that he will be one of the next all-time greats.

But again, I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to college quarterbacks....that's just what I see with the eye-test after watching every game this season. He plays like a veteran NFL quarterback out there with his poise and confidence- I'm just nuts over him. But at the same time, I WOULDN'T trade the farm to get him because grading QB's isn't my thing...I could be completely wrong and I wouldn't trust myself to make that decision. If Miami pulls the trigger though then I'd be ecstatic!

I have never seen any qb in all my years of watching college football(and I am 52)play this type of schedule and perform at an elite level in every game.Blows my mind.Pocket presence,anticipation,leadership and accuracy are off the charts!I would not be shocked if he ends up a hall of famer someday.Pisses me off we won 5 games but yes If I was the GM I would put my job on the line for him.

"Fin D wrote:

Tua will be great.

You can't know that. You can't know how risky the hip injury makes him because even he doesn't know that yet.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

You can't know that. You can't know how risky the hip injury makes him because even he doesn't know that yet.

If we cannot know how risky it is, why are you sure it is risky?

"Fin D wrote:

If we cannot know how risky it is, why are you sure it is risky?

It's risky not knowing. It's Flores and Grier risking their jobs, it's this team risking spending another 6-7 years screwing around, wasting time and money and talent. If Tua doesn't get reinjured but the hip slows him down to where he's never the QB he once was, that 5th overall pick was wasted, which is bad, but probably years of time will be wasted, which is horrible. Too big of a risk on something we KNOW is a big risk.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

It's risky not knowing. It's Flores and Grier risking their jobs, it's this team risking spending another 6-7 years screwing around, wasting time and money and talent. If Tua doesn't get reinjured but the hip slows him down to where he's never the QB he once was, that 5th overall pick was wasted, which is bad, but probably years of time will be wasted, which is horrible. Too big of a risk on something we KNOW is a big risk.

Every pick is a risk.

Truth be told, this franchise has done literally everything it can int he past 20+ years to change its fortune......except be bold.

Folks say they're okay with trading up for Burrow, but let's ask this a different way. Would you trade-

- Tua
- a top 3 tackle in the draft
- the best RB in the draft
- a top 5 DE/DT/NT in the draft
- the top LT/LB/CB/DE or S in the draft in 20201

for

- Burrow

It sounds great when we're looking at straight up numbers, but once you realize the talent we're passing on it's a completely different story in my book. So even though I'd love to have Burrow, I don't know if he's worth that much if Tua gets a clean bill of health. It's a very tough decision that will literally shape the face of our franchise for the next 10 seasons.

"KeyFin wrote:

Folks say they're okay with trading up for Burrow, but let's ask this a different way. Would you trade-

- Tua
- a top 3 tackle in the draft
- the best RB in the draft
- a top 5 DE/DT/NT in the draft
- the top LT/LB/CB/DE or S in the draft in 20201

for

- Burrow

It sounds great when we're looking at straight up numbers, but once you realize the talent we're passing on it's a completely different story in my book. So even though I'd love to have Burrow, I don't know if he's worth that much if Tua gets a clean bill of health. It's a very tough decision that will literally shape the face of our franchise for the next 10 seasons.

Tell me how many of the draft picks we've used in the last ten years are still with the team and then I'll answer your question.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

Tell me how many of the draft picks we've used in the last ten years are still with the team and then I'll answer your question.

I'm not disputing that...but it also has no bearing since Burrow is just as likely to be a bust as Tua or any of those other picks.