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Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 6, 2020.

  1. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    If your a Gm and you truly believe in a guy
    you must be all in!
     
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  2. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I don't think he's as likely to be a bust as Tua. I think Tua and Burrow have an equal chance at being a bust talent/skill wise but Tua has about twenty times the chance to be a bust physically due to that injury, either from reaggravating it or simply by not being as fast as he used to be.
     
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  3. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    What???

    Most of those guys were 1st round picks.
     
  4. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Half of that list had respectable NFL careers. 1st rd QBs in general don't do any better. And Burrow is the only one to win a National Championship and have a season like he just did. Good odds I think.
     
  5. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Or think about it like this.

    Would you trade, #5 + Tunsil+ Minkah Fitzpatrick for Joe Burrow, the future?

    I'd run you over with my truck to get that to the podium.

    Would you do that for Tua?
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think you trade that bevy of picks acquired to move up to #1 and get Burrow, if the Bengals are responsive.
     
  7. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How stupid can they be to let that info out, if it's true? Almost guaranteed that we get leveraged to have to move up, if this info is true.
     
  9. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Ain't no way Washington is trading down further than the third pick. They really want Chase Young.
     
  10. DOLPHAN1

    DOLPHAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

    Interesting. I think we had an opportunity to move to #4 with little compensation. we just let two of our coaches go, seemingly with out compensation, to the team that currently holds the #4 pick. is it possible that we have an agreement in place with the Giants in the case of a panic moment?
     
  11. DOLPHAN1

    DOLPHAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

    Bo's injury, though a dislocation, was different than Tua's. If i remember correctly he did develop AVN and that was the issue. could be wrong on that.
     
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  12. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Actually Bo's injury was not initially as bad as Tua's. It was a partial dislocation. Tua had a complete dislocation and fractured his hip socket. Yes medicine has advanced some since the 80s, but I would not take a chance on Tua. That is a major injury which not many people come back from. He has already shown he cannot hold up physically in college even with a pretty good oline. What makes us think he will not be injury prone in the NFL?
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I doubt that was said with any knowledge and is merely conjecture.
     
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  14. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If we have learned anything this year from the staff we have now, any of this type of comment can be taken with a pinch of salt because they do not let information out
     
  15. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can't keep bringing up past history, it has no bearing on this year. Grier might have had some influence but not a lot and we have a much better FO in place. The draft is always a crap shoot and there are no guarantees regardless of where you draft.
     
  16. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Sure it does. It shows that ownership has no history of hiring GMs that know what the hell they're doing. Why should I think this GM is any better?
     
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  17. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Appreciate that but what else can we do. I think Flores has a great handle on what he wants (he's done a great job on the waiver wire & raiding practise squads) and MacKenzie & Allen also have a good track record. Also, if you have a look at the last few drafts, Grier has done ok (even if a few of these have been traded to other teams).
    They have absolutely got to knock it out of the park but I am optimistic.
     
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  18. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    The way I see it, with all these picks the Phins got, they should be SB favorites in about 4years. If that does not happen than Grier will be exposed for who he truly is....

    The Titans draft picks in 2015 are finally paying off 4 years later, lets see how the Dolphins do.
     
  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    If you flip a coin and it lands on heads 9 times in row, then flip again ... it's still a 50/50 shot between heads and tails.
     
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  20. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    This isn't random chance. Our personnel choices would have been better if we'd thrown darts at names on a board.
     
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  21. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    All Grier has really proven, to this point, is that he can disassemble a roster...soundly proven. His trade-offs of talent weren't impressive. I don't give him any credit for the Tunsil windfall...that was straight up Houston desperation. Hopefully the "by committee" GM'ing can have a much better showing going forward. I have faith in Flo, at least.
     
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  22. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    We are hardly unique in that regard however. Sports is littered with failure. The point is, that we may have had some subpar GMs and coaches doesn't mean Flores and/or Grier will fail.
     
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  23. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Sports is indeed littered with failure. But we've had consistent draft failures for the better part of fifteen years now. There are few franchises who've shown this sort of ineptitude at personnel decisions, and the one constant that whole time has been Stephen Ross.
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    For me it is like people have never had jobs before.

    I have seen many situations where there person in top makes terrible decisions and the people underneath are good at thier job.

    If Grier messes up the next few years he is too blame. For the past I do not know
     
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  25. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Tunsil windfall only happened because Grier contacted them about Stills
     
  26. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Half the league has been about the same. We aren't unique. And again, it has no bearing on the present or future. Look at the Bills - decades of futility without even a playoff appearance, now they have 2 in a row and appear on the upswing.
     
  27. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That is exactly why we are going through this short term plan, otherwise we were likely stuck in that 6-9 win cycle.
    No idea if it will work but I am excited to see the next few years.
     
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  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Guys get taken in the first round every year that most people can tell arent valid prospects.

    Jamarcus Russell went #1 overall and everyone and their mother knew he was a joke.

    EJ Manual? Find me anyone who thought he was actually a good prospect, yet a void in that draft put in him in the first.

    QB is a position so valued by teams that draft position doesnt even reflect the prospects ability.
     
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  29. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Keep in mind that when a bone heals, the healed part is often thicker, i.e. stronger, then the surrounding bone.

    It seems to me that if a force were applied to the thick area of a healed bone, the junction between the thicker healed bone and the rest of the bone is where any new damage will occur. This would be due to the fact that if a bone was all the same thickness, any force would be absorbed by bending equally across a given area. Of course, too much force will break the bone, but less force will cause the bones to bend a little.

    The thicker bone at the point of healing wont bend as easily as the surrounding bone. This means the force bending the bone is no longer evenly distributed across the healed area and could cause a break with less applied force then if the bone was uniformly strong across that area. It's the difference of bone strength between a healed portion of bone and undamaged bone at the point of force, rather then just the bone strength itself, that makes this area more susceptible to getting re-broken.

    The degree to which this is a problem is probably very small, but in sports related injuries, whatever situation occurred to break the bone in the first place seems likely to reoccur. I remember seeing Tua's hit, and it looked like a lot of sacks QB's take during a game.

    For this reason I'd not consider Tua in the upcoming draft. Also to be considered, another year of healing will make a tremendous difference in showing if the healing was complete.

    The good news is that we are not desperate for a QB next season. We are in a situation with an effective, but aged QB, with a young backup who could possibly be our next QB. No one knows at this time, and the best information about Rosen's situation is in the heads of the coaching staff, not with our posters.

    In this scenario, I would not trade up for a QB. I would consider drafting a QB in any round if the Front Office sees meaningful potential. This meets my criteria of always getting good QB's when they are available without going crazy in the first round of the draft. Like many others have said here, we have so many areas that can be improved upon that we should try and make improvements across the entire team; probably based on BPA.

    In my opinion, it would be a good approach to focus our draft on the trenches, picking up other positions if that player represents a significant improvement to the team overall, either as a first string player or rotational depth.

    Keep in mind that we have to protect the team from the loss of performance due to injury by having several competent players available at each position.

    We can worry about hero status after we start getting into the playoffs on a regular basis!
     
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  30. DOLPHAN1

    DOLPHAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

    what you say is generally true. however, we are talking about the rim of the socket that broke. the part of the bone that was note broken gets thicker. I'm sure the broken area was also reinforced medically during the operation. with any injury that is severe, as this one is, you are always taking a chance. I know that there are some discounting the Brees/Saban issue as not the same since there was no "history" of injury prior but looking just at the injury and risk factor it is similar. Brees had as much chance of re injuring the shoulder or having setback/s to not recovering at all. In my opinion, with as little investment as possible, I think you have to take that chance if it presents it's self. The talent is off the charts and with patience this coming season I believe it will pay off. JMO
     
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  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    WADR, until we find our QB we are desperate for one.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    FO actually has some data on whether starters in the NFL are more "injury-prone" based on their history of injuries. It looks like it is true statistically that the total number of injuries (that made it into the injury report) in the previous 2 seasons increases the chances of missing a game or more due to injury in the next season:
    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/what-does-injury-prone-mean-nfl

    [​IMG]

    The error bars are also pretty small so that does suggest Tua may have a higher chance of missing a game (or more) in future seasons than QB's with no injury history in the past 2 years.

    Not that it changes my opinion on Tua. He's a high quality prospect when healthy and I personally am not sacrificing quality (when healthy) for injury risk. Also, even if it means little, all the mock drafts I'm seeing have us taking Tua. Love it.
     
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  33. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I want to throw up..
     
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  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I don't like that at all. At this time of year it's "Game of Thrones- GM Style" and they're all bluffing on their intentions. Miami is undoubtedly hearing that a few teams are willing to trade up for Tua, so we will try to trade up even higher. That's incredibly frustrating because I doubt anyone else actually tries to move up.
     
  35. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    The entire league are playing the dolphins like the fools we have been known for. Theyre going to force the dolphins to trade another first round pick and other picks for the little guy.
     
  36. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If Tua is who they want and he's gone before 5, we should trade down.
     
  37. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    No team above us wants tua, no team but the dolphins are willing to pick him top 15..
     
  38. danmarino

    danmarino Quarantining like a MoFo Club Member

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    "Keep in mind that when a bone heals, the healed part is often thicker, i.e. stronger, then the surrounding bone."


    This is not true...it's a widely believed myth. So, basically, everything else you're suspecting in regards to the fracture is also not true.
     
  39. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    It was not the rim of the socket that I saw broken in the x-rays. This x-ray was shown on the internet but its possible you didn't see it. It was the one of the big flat plates of the pelvis and it was cracked and partially open near the top. This is not as bad as a total separation kind of break, but it is bad enough. Apparently, one of the secondary issues is the loss or reduction of blood flow to the damaged area causing an increase in the time to heal and can lead to the localized death of some of the bone. It will be a few months before it is known to what extent, if any, this may have occurred.

    I understand that Bree's injury was tissue and ligament damage in his shoulder. Back then, there was not as good a success rate curing those injuries as there is now. An incredible NFL rookie QB named Greg Cook had one of these shoulder injuries a year or two before Bree's had his and it took him out of football. Look him up. He was considered the best QB prospect ever seen, prior to his injury.

    I don't know what the final result of Tua's injury will be, but I hope he gives himself enough time for a full recovery.
     
  40. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I don't know that I believe that.
     

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