Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

I'd rather stay at #5 than trade up honestly.

If we are wasting picks to trade up, we should have lost more games like our fan base wanted to begin with.

We made our bed, let's not get LESS out of it by trading picks to move up a couple slots unless the loss is absolutely minimal.

I do believe Tua will be there at #5 if we want him though.

It also helps that while I'm not against either, I'm not sold either Burrow or Tua is good enough to trade up for.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

I'd rather stay at #5 than trade up honestly.

If we are wasting picks to trade up, we should have lost more games like our fan base wanted to begin with.

We made our bed, let's not get LESS out of it by trading picks to move up a couple slots unless the loss is absolutely minimal.

I do believe Tua will be there at #5 if we want him though.

It also helps that while I'm not against either, I'm not sold either Burrow or Tua is good enough to trade up for.

The entire point of getting so much capital was to allow us to maneuver regardless of wins, not necessarily to draft 14 rookies.

I 100% agree with Galant, we will need to move up to #3. Bengals will need to be blown away by a record offer unless Burrow does something crazy like pull an Eli - unlikely. Skins might be more amenable to moving, but doubt they will want to give up the rights to Young. That leaves the Lions at 3, who likely WILL want to trade down unless Young falls into their laps. Their biggest needs are guys like Okudah or Brown, but taking a DT or CB at 3 isn't great value. Moving down to 5 and picking up another first rounder though? Not so bad. The only way we stay at 5 is if we have equal grades on someone like Love or Herbert or if Tua's medical progression falls off track.

You either try to go to #1 and get Burrow or you draft Love. I do not in any way shape or form trust that Tua will be a guy that stays healthy. I think that Love may be the guy. NOT Herbert!

"Tin Indian wrote:

You either try to go to #1 and get Burrow or you draft Love. I do not in any way shape or form trust that Tua will be a guy that stays healthy. I think that Love may be the guy. NOT Herbert!

A LOT depends on how Tua's evaluations go from here on out, but assuming nothing goes drastically wrong then I think the Dolphins will pull the trigger IF they can't get Burrow or prefer Tua's game. Dolphins will be in the position they were with Brees - a top QB with an injury... they don't make the same decision twice.

Unless Miami wants to sell the farm for Burrow, there’s no need to move up for Tua. He’s going to be there.

Cincinnati will take Burrow
Washington drafted Haskins 15th overall last year
Detroit is still stuck on the Stafford wagon
The Giants just drafted Jones 6th overall

But going back to Detroit, that would be the only team that would possibly draft him. They are carrying 3 QBs on their roster as it is but the other 2 are no names

If Miami wants Tua, I’d roll the dice and not trade

Well, Tua declared for the draft, no surprise, so we will see what happens now. Tua has great skill but the last great QB I remember coming out of college with injury problems is Sam Bradford and that did NOT work out well. I'd be extremely careful about this.

It's obvious Tua was told he is going in the top 10. Patricia is a defense guy he is going to take Okudah.

Get Tua at 5! You can all slobber over Fitzpatrick again for another year and Tua will be healthy for 2021.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Unless Miami wants to sell the farm for Burrow, there’s no need to move up for Tua. He’s going to be there.

Cincinnati will take Burrow
Washington drafted Haskins 15th overall last year
Detroit is still stuck on the Stafford wagon
The Giants just drafted Jones 6th overall

But going back to Detroit, that would be the only team that would possibly draft him. They are carrying 3 QBs on their roster as it is but the other 2 are no names

If Miami wants Tua, I’d roll the dice and not trade

But you can't rule out other teams trying to leapfrog Miami for Tua. I don't think Miami take that chance. They will try to trade up with anyone above them.

"Galant wrote:

But you can't rule out other teams trying to leapfrog Miami for Tua. I don't think Miami take that chance. They will try to trade up with anyone above them.

From what I've read, interest in Tua so far comes down to Miami and Miami only. That doesn't mean other teams aren't doing their homework on him and/or wouldn't take him in the teens or 20's, but I'd be SHOCKED to see any team spend multiple picks to move up and take a QB who may never play an NFL down. That would be a career-ending move for a GM if Tua doesn't end up playing well.

I think the only question is whether we take him at #5 or #18.

I would be happy trading up to #1 overall for Burrow regardless of the cost...but I could also make the same case for Lawrence next year as well. So it is possible that we don't draft anyone, try to unload a few of our 1st round picks for selections next season, then make the same type of move for Lawrence.

It would be stupid to trade up. You should have tanked properly if you know you wanted a top 3 pick. You better hope he falls to #5 if that is who you want. Live with the consequences.

Personally, none of the QBs in this draft give me that Lamar Jackson feel. I've seen none of them carry garbage college football programs like a Louisville. All the top QB prospects this year were surrounded by tons of talent. Tua does have some dog in him, though. I liked how he played that last game injured. I don't feel he's a game changer though.

Knowing this front office, they'll probably draft a DB or DT. Like that will make a difference, lol.

If the trade makes sense for Burrow, I say pull the trigger.

"Galant wrote:

But you can't rule out other teams trying to leapfrog Miami for Tua. I don't think Miami take that chance. They will try to trade up with anyone above them.

Trading up one spot to #4 actually has merit. We could do that with a 4th, and at worst a 3rd if a bidding war starts. The reason is because trading up to #3 is truly prohibitive for other teams if you go by draft pick value charts:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Even if those charts aren't totally accurate, the point remains that the jump to #3 is generally much harder than to #4, especially for the Chargers who pick right after us and might pick a QB since Rivers is on his last legs. They'd have to give up their 2nd (or a future 1st) and a good deal more if a bidding war starts just to get to #3, not to mention the cost is much higher for QB needy teams down the list.

So as a GM I might try trading up one spot to #4 if a 4th rounder suffices. I still think Tua will fall to 5, but might as well be safe(r).

The important factor in this isn't knowing whether or not other teams are interested in Tua or Burrow -- it would be helpful but I've no idea just how much GM's are or can be aware what others are thinking,so I'll assume that Grier can't be certain -- it's whether the Dolphins want to be sure they can get their man. The only way to be CERTAIN of getting the guy you want is picking before anyone else and not allowing anyone else to leapfrog you. How can Grier be certain that no-one else will jump before #5 and take Tua or Burrow? He can't be certain, so either he gambles on a player he wants at #5 being there, or he makes the necessary moves to just acquire him and be certain of it.

We can talk all we want about what we think people want and where a given player might be picked but the draft produces surprises every single year. So, does Grier want to be surprised or does he want to get the player he wants? I think the latter, I think that's the point of this year and all the trades. He has himself said that this has been done so that they can be confident of getting anyone they want. There are obviously limitations to that, but the point is, they aren't going to be afraid to pay a high price to get the guys they want. They've got the capital and flexibility to do it. So they WILL do it.

As for the idea that the Dolphins should have lost more games in 2019 if they wanted to go higher... have you been paying attention to what Grier and Flores have been saying all year? This is not, and has not been, a one man tank show. Flores has intended to win from the beginning, and Grier and Ross knew that, so they aimed to be as flexible with trades as possible to get as much ammo as they can, gutting bad contracts, or older players, to rebuild the roster while Flores rebuilds the team in terms of strategy, ethos, discipline etc. All of that points to the Dolphins getting all this capital precisely so that they can move up from a lower spot to a higher one. If you don't see that then I don't think anyone show it to you. But that's reality.

If they think Tua is a franchise QB and a level above the other talents (Love, Herbert, Eason, Hurts, etc) and they think Tua is their guy, their target ... they will make a trade unless they know none of the teams ahead are moving.

Lots of people projecting their own feelings here, but that's not really meaningful when discussing what Grier will do.

Trading up would enrage me. I would be so angry that I might have to step away from football for a while.

My number one preference is to trade down. If they take a QB at 5, then I'll have to live with it.

I wouldn't trade up for Tua. The risk is too great. Even if he plays next season, which isn't guaranteed, that hip is just a huge huge risk to be reinjured. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe he never gets hurt again, but if I were the GM I wouldn't be willing to trade more than maybe an extra 2nd or 3rd to move up a single spot, at the very most.
Now Burrow...I'd trade up for him. I think he's the real deal.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Trading up would enrage me. I would be so angry that I might have to step away from football for a while.

My number one preference is to trade down. If they take a QB at 5, then I'll have to live with it.

That sounds unhealthy frankly.

QB is THE most crucial position on the field. This is the best position we have had to draft a high level prospect in awhile, we need to take it. Not a time to get cute and dance around. Identify your guy - whomever it may be - and get him. It's why we have the warchest we do

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I wouldn't trade up for Tua. The risk is too great. Even if he plays next season, which isn't guaranteed, that hip is just a huge huge risk to be reinjured. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe he never gets hurt again, but if I were the GM I wouldn't be willing to trade more than maybe an extra 2nd or 3rd to move up a single spot, at the very most.
Now Burrow...I'd trade up for him. I think he's the real deal.

What medical expertise are you basing this on? Most medical experts familiar with the situation that I am seeing note the possibility of long-term issues (namely arthritis) but not any great risk of reinjury or other problems.

"Galant wrote:

All of that points to the Dolphins getting all this capital precisely so that they can move up from a lower spot to a higher one. If you don't see that then I don't think anyone show it to you. But that's reality.

I think the part you're missing is that the team needs a safety, a CB, a LB, a DB, at least two DE's, two tackles, at least one guard, possibly a center, two RB's, a WR, a blocking TE AND a QB. Free agency is certainly an option but the reason we stockpiled those picks was to have flexibility...including (but definitely not limited to) moving up in the draft.

I'm not saying we won't move up. I'm not saying it's not a viable option if there's someone we're in love with. But it is certainly not the only route to a successful draft and it could end up hurting more than helping.

"cbrad wrote:

Trading up one spot to #4 actually has merit. We could do that with a 4th, and at worst a 3rd if a bidding war starts. The reason is because trading up to #3 is truly prohibitive for other teams if you go by draft pick value charts:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Even if those charts aren't totally accurate, the point remains that the jump to #3 is generally much harder than to #4, especially for the Chargers who pick right after us and might pick a QB since Rivers is on his last legs. They'd have to give up their 2nd (or a future 1st) and a good deal more if a bidding war starts just to get to #3, not to mention the cost is much higher for QB needy teams down the list.

So as a GM I might try trading up one spot to #4 if a 4th rounder suffices. I still think Tua will fall to 5, but might as well be safe(r).

Here's my only problem with that- moving up to #4 only makes sense if the team picking #4 (Giants) will likely take the same player we'd want at #5. If that's the case, then there's no way they'd take a 4th rounder as compensation for the top person on their boards. And if that's not the case, then there's no reason for Miami to give away a 4th rounder (or higher) for nothing since they could have the same exact player at #5.

Now, your case makes sense if another team is suddenly pushing hard for the #4 pick (likely signaling they want Tua), but we may not be privy to that information until after the fact. So I just don't see the point unless you know for a fact "team x" is trying to move into #4 specifically for Tua. To me, that team would be more sly trading us for the #5 pick since they'd be in direct contact and could claim they're trying to grab whoever would go #6...one of the beefy tackles or stud DE's maybe.

"KeyFin wrote:

Here's my only problem with that- moving up to #4 only makes sense if the team picking #4 will likely take the same player you'd get at #5. If that's the case, then there's no way they'd take a 4th rounder as compensation for the top person on their boards. And if that's not the case, then there's no reason for Miami to give away a 4th rounder (or higher) for nothing since they could have the same exact player at #5.

Now, your case makes sense if another team is suddenly pushing hard for the #4 pick (likely signaling they want Tua), but we may not be privy to that information until after the fact. So I just don't see the point unless you know for a fact "team x" is trying to move into #4 specifically for Tua. To me, that team would be more sly trading us for the #5 pick since they'd be in direct contact and could claim they're trying to grab whoever would go #6...one of the beefy tackles or stud DE's maybe.

Wait.. your first paragraph doesn't make sense. If the team at #4 (Giants) is NOT taking a QB, then they'd have no issue trading picks with us, and yes they'd probably do that for a small amount of draft capital because from their perspective it doesn't change the likelihood of drafting who they'd want to draft at #4 (he'll be there at #5).

And my case makes sense as a preventive measure for any team that MIGHT try to leapfrog us. I'm just saying that leapfrogging to #3 entails a much higher cost, but not necessarily to #4, so it makes sense for us to move up to #4 as soon as possible spending little for it (a 4th).

Hope the logic is clearer now.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Trading up would enrage me. I would be so angry that I might have to step away from football for a while.

My number one preference is to trade down. If they take a QB at 5, then I'll have to live with it.

Better step away now.

Miami did not dump everything and make all those trades to not get their quarterback

Listening to Detroit Sports Radio post-Tua and there is an early consensus forming that the Lions and Phins would be a good trade partner, most likely us getting the 3rd overall in exchange for #5 and either the Texans first rounder (28ish) or our top second rounder. Some folks clamoring for 18, but that doesn't work on strict trade value and is not likely.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I wouldn't trade up for Tua. The risk is too great. Even if he plays next season, which isn't guaranteed, that hip is just a huge huge risk to be reinjured. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe he never gets hurt again, but if I were the GM I wouldn't be willing to trade more than maybe an extra 2nd or 3rd to move up a single spot, at the very most.
Now Burrow...I'd trade up for him. I think he's the real deal.

What about that specific injury have you heard means its more likely to be reinjured?