On the heels of Mario Williams 3.5 sack performance the subject of draft analysis came up this morning on Sirius NFL radio. Dan Reeves is one of the cohosts. The host mentions how quick everyone was to chalk up Williams as a bad pick and annoit Reggie Bush and Vince Young as future hall of famers. This is just background for the topic. I picked up something interesting that Dan Reeves said in response. "We usually gave it three years to see if the pick had paid off. That is how long I think it took for us to see if we were right about the pick." So when I arrive home I check the Dolphins draft history (again). What I took from Reeves comment was that the rookie or second year player would show growing pains at various points of their seasons. We see it more often than not and as fans we are too quick to judge the player. It was interesting to here Coach Reeves analysis on the topic. Three years huh? If it is three years that one must reserve judgement then you would have to go back to the 2004 draft. It was around the 2003-2004 draft that we noticed that GMs were requiring rookies to sign five year deals. So in the grand scheme of a draft picks final analysis and their rookie contracts is a two year window for observation. For most of the elite talent in the league, the payoff point is their second contract in the league. 2004 Vernon Carey G Miami (FL) Will Poole DB USC Tony Bua DB Arkansas Rex Hadnot C Houston Tony Pape G Michigan Derrick Pope LB Alabama 2003 Eddie Moore LB Tennessee Wade Smith T Memphis Taylor Whitley G Texas A&M Donald Lee TE Mississippi State J.R. Tolver WR San Diego State Corey Jenkins DB South Carolina Tim Provost T San Jose State Yeremiah Bell DB Eastern Kentucky Davern Williams DT Troy State Are we paying for our sins of the past?
Yep, I'd say only 1 starter from the 2003 draft is pretty sad. 2004 wasn't too bad though considering we got 2 "slightly above average" starters, however I certainly wouldn't consider it a "good" draft. 2003 was an absolute killer though...
Donald Lee sure looks great in Green Bay lately. Has great hands, playing tight end for Favre. Makes tough catches.
Actually, a lot of receivers have testified over the years that catching balls from Favre is difficult - apparently he throws a "heavy ball" with a lot of smoke. No...Lee just stunk when he played here, and we cut him as a result. He had countless passes hit him right in the hands at critical times that he dropped. Anyway, a lot of players seem to up their game when they get out of Miami for some reason. Maybe he was never coached properly about how to hang onto the ball. Who knows...
It depends. There's also something called "Length to Impact" (LTI) that most teams take into consideration when drafting a player. Generally speaking, a first round pick - especially a top 10 choice - should be able to significantly contribute from day one (as in start). A 2nd round pick, on the other hand, is supposed to contribute by the start of his second season. And so forth. That, by the way, was one of the reasons analysts called the Ginn pick a reach; not because the kid hadn't any talent but because the kid was viewed as too raw to start right away and therefore didn't justify a top 10 selection. As we see with Ginn (or Williams, for that matter) LTI isn't everything of course. There are some positions (QB comes to mind) that have an entirely different LTI chart than others. But generally speaking, a first round choice should be able to contribute right away and it's fair game to criticise an FO that reaches for a player whose LTI doesn't match with his draft position. The real problem - especially concerning fan reaction - is that most people have a black and white conception of the whole thing: Either the guy's a complete bust or he's the real deal. In reality, a franchise can and should afford the luxury of allowing a player three years to grow while it also should try to avoid getting into this position in the first place by keeping an eye on the LTI issue.
Either way, how many seasons did Donald Lee have here? His rookie and sophmore season? I will absolutely go with coaching was the biggest problem he had here, because he obviously is a good talent, averaging 12.4 yards per reception and is a huge target at 6''4.
