The initial over/unders have come out and I was mildly surprised to see the Fins at 7.5. I guess we did win a lot of close games last year. Is there anything more to this number than that? Any bad news I wasn't aware of? http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...guars-liked-bettor-go-initial-2017-win-totals
1. Yes we did win a lot of close games last season which we could have easily lost. 2. Our schedule will be significantly tougher next season than it was last year. 3. We were very conservative in both free agency and the draft. We still have some holes on the roster and it is not clear that the team has gotten much better talentwise. Sent from my F3111 using Tapatalk
Ive been betting sports for 15+ years. I know for a fact Vegas is smarter than us. But they are underestimating the Phins. Yes, the schedule is significantly harder...yes we were 1-5 vs teams with a winning record....I get why they would have us taking a step back. But not even a .500 team? We didn't need a big FA signing or a star studded draft. We need health and another year under Adam Gase. As long as we don't lose our best back 7 player, solid CB's, Pro Bowl lineman or our ascending starting QB then we will pass that 7.5 mark in early to mid November. And yes, I plan on putting my $$ where my mouth is my next trip out west.
The only reason we weren't a 13 win team last year was because of the slow start due to learning new offense and defense and later on injuries. People are sleeping on us.
I have to say though, when you go through that schedule looking for wins it's hard to get to a confident 8.
Meh, I may be in the minority here, but I don't think our schedule is as tough as people are saying it is. Before the 2016 season started, we had the 11th hardest schedule in the league and the majority of the media was down on Miami; no more than five wins, it seemed. Now, looking back, most would say we had a fairly soft schedule. These things are very fluid; it's just too difficult to predict how teams will perform relative to previous years after an entire off-season of shuffling their roster, and often times coaching and front office personnel. Our schedule could very well turn out to be easier than expected, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does. Baltimore, Carolina and Denver are being overestimated this year due to previous achievement; their rosters, on paper, are rather flawed. Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City and New England (x2) will be our toughest tests, but we're at home for three of those five contests. If we can go 3-2 through that stretch, I don't see anything less than 11-5 on the season.
The schedule currently looks very difficult, but things change, injuries happen, and teams that were good last year will regress this year. We won't know until the games actually kick off. Anything can happen. Now....if everything stays the exact same as last season with who we are facing this season, then I'd be hard pressed to find seven games we win on this schedule. Some of the matchups are definitely not in our favor, but I'll wait and see before pushing the panic button. Kinda like with our draft picks.
I was thinking about 7-8 games as well, but over the past few days, I thought some more and I think we should win 8 or maybe 9 this year. I think our schedule is tougher travel wise and teams usually suffer a little setback in year 2 of a new coach's tenure. I thought about which second year and third year players will hopefully contribute more and rookies as well (Asiata). I like the addition of Timmons via FA at LB. With all of that I felt like it might be around 7-8 wins, but then I thought about something else; I think Gase would be pissed to have a losing record on his resume and can will at least an even record out of nearly any situation with his intensity alone, one ingredient this team has missed for many years. So now I'm thinking 8, but hopefully 9 wins. Well, actually I'm thinking 8, but hopefully 19 wins!
This. If I was betting against the Dolphins it would be due to the lack of putting together back to back winning seasons.
We are in the midst of a culture change. This is where IMO Vegas has a blind spot. Us being another year into Adam Game to me is as important as any FA or draft pick we could've gotten. ALL of our offensive playmakers will be back with another year in the system. We are getting a top 3 S back and have added a solid LB in Timmons. This isn't "sexy". Normally Vegas is so much smarter than everyone else that I would look at the 7.5 and be scared. Take out the kids college fund, your 401K, 2nd mortgage and go to Vegas and BEG them to let you put it all on Miami OV 7.5. (They have limits for these types of bets unless you are a VIP). Then sit back enjoy the season and pray we don't get devastated by injuries.
At least Vegas acknowledges we improved. Last year they expected us to win 7 games with a weaker schedule (0.516) whereas this year it's 7.5 with a tougher schedule (0.547). If one assumed we were perfectly average that 0.547 translates to 7.25 wins. So basically Vegas is saying they think we're average. If you think we're above average, take the over.
This. We didn't experience a lot of roster turnover with our starters, which should be huge for continuity. And as of this very second, our roster is healthy... We lost a ton of important starters last year at very stretches. Staying healthy in 2017 is a bigger concern than our schedule, IMO.
I brought this up in another thread but it does seem more relevant here. I'm worried about our first 5 games just due to the amount and length of travels the team has to endure... Home against the Yucks Miami to LA (Chargers) LA to NY (Jests) NY to London (A'ints) London to MIA (Tampons) 12,613 miles in 4 weeks. If we can survive this first 5 game stretch at 3-2, I'm confident we'll be alright for a successful season but if crossing so many time zones, enduring nauseating airline food & living out of suitcases takes its toll and we finish this stretch 1-4, we're going to have our hands full trying to salvage the season.
Yea, that's rough. Winning week 1 will be critical for us. I don't expect a W vs The Chargers. I think we will win all be it on the road vs the Jets. The Saints is a toss up. Will have to see how our defense looks before guessing on that one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
that over under is about right, everyone is riding coat tails from a favorable schedule last year. we still haven't proved we can stop the run. we play 4 nationally televised games and if history suites us right those are 3 if not 4 losses, saints, raiders, panthers and pats. we may go 4-6 before the bye and after the bye I have no idea 4 of the 6 are pats-2 den, kc. Its going to be a rough year if RT don't show up that's all I know. I would say there's a reason its 7.5 and not 7 or 8 im sure the bills twice in 3 weeks at the end is what Vegas cant decide on. If I was on the outside and not a fan I would take the under looking at matchups I see a 7-9 year but as a fan I m disappointed if its not a 9-7 year they have to win a couple tough games.
BB.. William Hayes..Reshad Jones...X...Kwon...Timmons... All very good to excellent players against the run...all players we didn't have the services of last year for the most part...5 upgrades at their prospective positions.
Like I said still haven't proved. On paper it looks great but there huge ifs and ifs. It has to be proven first cant automatically give 5 extra wins because 3 guys are coming back. we play the top tier of RB this yr its a tough schedule and I hope we prevail for 10 wins. im just trying to speak with no bias.
Me too...are they upgrades or not?...we're talking about betting and winning the over, would you take those five upgrades into account when projecting your team to improve? It's a lot of upgrades, these are proven players, and we know the players they are replacing.
Like I would bet money Hayes is a better run defender than Mario Williams. I would bet money Kwon plays the run better than a one armed Kiko. I would bet money X is a better run defender than Lippett or Maxwell.. I would bet money that Timmons is better than anyone we had starting last year I would bet money that reshad Jones is the best in the box run defender in the game and he missed most of the season.. No on paper BB....just real solid evidence on projection...our defense is gonna be better..
in all honesty being a betting man even with the "upgrades" I still don't see the offensive production of tannehill being consistent enough to win the close games. 19 and 12, td to int isn't going to cut it and that's only through 13 games I think. Like I said Im hoping the over by 2 games or more, but being a betting man its a tough call I can see them winning 6 games based off all the matchups but then I can see them pulling out 3 close games we are supposed to lose and having 9 wins but the safer bet to me not "knowing" defensive production as it stands right now would be to take the under.
well then it sounds like you are guaranteeing that all those guys play 16 games, you arent accounting for injuries and you have to so if you say the team is going to be 9-6 then you automatically have to take 2 games into limbo based of what if injuries so that's where vegas is getting their lines. they base it off matchups the probabilities of injuries and game day rosters. that's why when second string qbs come in and kill it or in the sense ajayi comes in and has 2-200 yard games vegas always losses because they cant count for that as much as fans may have seen it. know what im saying?
I agree with a lot of people on this thread. We have added/retained considerable run stopping talent on D. On offense, we have all the same starters and added Thomas who thrived in this system for Gase. So without a doubt, we added at least 6 Td's with him alone not to mention all offensive players being more comfortable in their second year. I agree that historically, we haven't fired off consistent playoff years since #13 was under center. Based on our up and down history, once you take the Aqua colored glasses off, it's hard for a non-fan to think we can do it again and to do it against tougher teams and 4 prime time games. I get it. With that said, I think we end up 11-5 and make it back to the playoffs. Vegas can suck our contrail.
Every year, people overreact to the schedule. Last year, we weren't supposed to win back to back west coast games, yet we did. Last year, Bills and Jets were supposed to be scary games. We swept them. That's 6 games right there we were supposed to be anywhere from 0-6 to 2-4 on, and we ended up 6-0.
Like i said weeks back, this team is due for a huge regression. there are additions and returns from injury that can give you hope, but this team still has gaping holes in so many places and we got so lucky in so many games against terrible teams last year and the schedule gets harder this year. I have some what hope, but not too much, last year was a very over achieving team and it showed based on how we played vs good teams and how close we played really really bad teams.
I'm not sure I agree, Seattle could say the same and we played NE later and lost. Either way, that isn't really the point, we got very lucky last year that many of the teams we faced were not as good as expected, so the question is, are you hoping for us to get lucky in that fashion again? 2 things I would say towards that, 1) playing vs lesser opponents doesn't make us any better and 2) if you are hoping for that then your confidence in our team must not be very high.