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Dolphans, you need to breathe

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Dec 13, 2017.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Lots of scenarios so I'm not sure how best to present this, but let's use a simple coin flip model which predicts 7.6% probability of the Dolphins making the playoffs (not a bad model given that it's between that 5% and 9% range).

    So, using a coin flip model, here are some scenarios:

    IF Baltimore loses a game and we have 3 games left, the probability we make the playoffs is 10.9%. If we have 2 games left and Oakland won their last game it's 18.75%, otherwise if Oakland lost it's 25%. If there's only 1 game left and Oakland won both their previous games it's 25%, otherwise it's 50%.

    If Baltimore never loses a game and we have 3 games left, the probability we make the playoffs is 4.7%. If we have 2 games left and Tennessee won their first game, the probability of making the playoffs is 6.25%. However, if we have 2 games left and Tennessee lost their first game, the probability of making the playoffs is 12.5%. If we have only 1 game left and Tennessee won both their previous games, we're eliminated. If we have only 1 game left and Tennessee was 1-1 their previous 2 games, the probability is 25%, and if Tennessee lost both their previous games the probability is 50%.

    Maybe that gives you an idea of where things would stand depending on what Baltimore or Tennessee does.
     
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you're a fan, you root for your team to win. I don't see how anyone who calls themself a fan can be offended by that.
     
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  3. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    who said I was rooting them to lose?
     
  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your anger towards everyone who's hoping we don't lose.
     
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  5. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    my ENTIRE PREMISE is not for us to sit on our laurels. Just two weeks ago, the abyss happened. are we going to ignore those issues? Aren't you sick of having a losing record for part of the season for several seasons back? This team is shaky at best, 6-7, and this winning, I don't hope like last year, will make us content
     
  6. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    What, the, ****, is, this, supposed, to, mean,?
     
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  7. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    it means last year we were 10-6, got creamed the last two games and didn't do enough to fix our roster.
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This team was supposed to be bad this season without Tannehill...every team is bad without their franchise QB. We would be content to have him on the field and get the year 2 everyone was waiting to see. So no matter what happens in the next 3 weeks, that's what 99% of the people here are the most interested in. This season stopped mattering a long time ago.

    However, we could still make the playoffs this year with the hurricane, without our QB1, our RB1, our starting right tackle, our starting middle linebacker, firing our head line coach and so on. That speaks to what a FANTASTIC job Gase has done despite the season crumbling in front of him. That's why most people here have changed their opinion from "it doesn't matter" to "holy ****, we might actually have a shot at this thing!"

    Make no mistake- we can win the Super Bowl this year or finish out 0-3...Gase and Tannehill are 100% guarantees for 2018. Tannenbaum isn't going anywhere the way our youth is playing. But you keep grinding that axe anyway instead of being a fan and actually listening to what the organization has been saying all along. That's why nobody here agrees with you and why you're proven wrong week after week after week.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2017
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  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    If we win the Superbowl, you think they wouldn't stick with Cutler?
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know...I started the "What If" thread on it because I really don't know. But I think even if we did win the SB and Cutler got comeback player of the year, Tannehill would be a lock on this roster in 2018. It would just be a competition instead of a given that Tannehill is starting.

    I don't think those things are going to happen, of course, but I couldn't help wonder the same thing. If we manage to squeak into the playoffs anything can happen, it's a new season.
     
  11. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    I think everyone is sick of losing but people approach that differently. The type of rebuild you want can take years if it even works at all. Thats why teams rarely do it. We need to continue to build but this isnt the nba where tanking offers more of a guarantee. Hence, we choose to root for winning over draft pick position.
     
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  12. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I got mine today. Don't know if it's "dream job" material but it is what I want to be doing now. And maybe wifey monster won't throw me out for the third and final time now so me happy!!!!!

    Your turn now brah. Go get it!
     
  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Awesome! So happy for you!
     
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  14. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Thank You :ffic:
     
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  15. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agree that it's a bit early for playoff hype and part complacency of the FO. However, they did try & plug some of the holes in the offseason (brought in Larsen, Timmons plus drafted McMillian), there was just a few too many holes and they probably did underestimate the OL situation
     
  16. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sorry Key, should have clarified that the bit of luck we had was Gronk being out for the game - certainly there was no luck with the result & the way we played.
     
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  17. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Sooooo before this gets going again how about we just end it now? I have no idea why you guys have this feud going but for all the other forum posters please don't go into another flame war. I honestly get a kick out of all of your posts for different reasons, and I enjoy having people with differing opinions cause it allows for good discussion on the forums, but last time the flame war kicked up it was not a fun read.
     
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  18. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I will say this about us and hitman and danmarino......we sure have unconventional thinking. You don't have to always like the coach (have his picture on your profile) and have to defend everything. You also don't have to have patience for certain players. To me, this entire team is open for business. What's our record since 1995? Or 1993? Which one was the last AFC Championship? It's been over 20 years since we sniffed a game like that, and there are posters here that think more of the same (after seasons of mediocrity) is the solution?
     
  19. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Got it. Good point. Sorry to everyone else. I'm done now.
     
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  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I think you are the same person, because you are.
     
  21. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I don't understand the "more of the same" argument. Every time you get a new coach, new GM, and new defensive and offensive Coordinators, isn't that the very definition of trying something different? Maybe I'm not understanding what exactly you think is "the same" in your example. I know your wanting to move on from Tannehill, but I assume he can't be part of your more of the same, since the last time we saw him he was winning us games leading us to a playoff appearance.

    Is it the way we draft? How we approach Free agency? The team attitude? Cause none of those things seem to be the same with our general approach over the last 5 years even. I know you have alluded to mediocrity, but that's vague, nobody is making decision specifically to become mediocre. Help me to understand your point of view on this.
     
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  22. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I'm ok with RT here, but we need true competition at qb. Maybe he develops after that. I just think year after year, we have a losing record for part of the season. We don't have sustainable offensive linemen, to start. Can you agree to that? We always end up playing 3rd stringers by this time. Parker is another example. Miami needs to push him. Don't keep hoping he will turn it around
     
  23. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think what you do not understand is that what you are calling for is exactly what the problem is.....more of the same. You want to go back to 1995? What happened? Shula went all in on FA and big names, it got him fired. Then Johnson came in, gutted the team, totally changed personnel. He won more than he lost. Resigned, Then its Dave W turn, kept things about the same, won with JJ's guys until he ran it into the ground. Fired. Now it is Saban's turn. Started out well, changed personnel along the way, and quit. Then it was Cam's one and done. Now its Tony S's turn to gut the team and change players and concepts. Decent returns early on performance but could not sustain it. Fired. Joe Philbin's turn. Changed personnel and concepts. Early promise deteriorated rapidly over his three seasons. Scandals. Fired. Now its Adam Gases's turn. Guess what? Changed Personnel and concepts. Looks promising so far. And then mid way through his second season...midway! you call to blow it up and start over again. So when you pat yourself on the back for "thinking outside the box" you are thinking EXACTLY IN THE BOX. Being impatient and knee jerk is exactly why we have experienced the last 20 yrs. Lets think outside the box and let Gase have a real chance to put us on a good path.
     
  24. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  25. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I get your frustration, however, context is important when looking at Gase in this scenario. Last year, with a new coach, and an entire team learning a new offense, I'm not sure if it was realistic to expect us winning early. This year with a recently retired QB, I'm not sure it would be realistic that we expect to win early again. This isn't more of the same, its just unfortunately the hand we were dealt.

    I really really really agree with the offensive line part of your argument. I can get behind that. but the offensive line problem has been there before Gase got here. What I'm seeing from Gase that gives me hope has been his ability to reach some players, coach them up and have them play better in his system. He clearly underestimated his deficiency at Guard this year. Young coaches are going to make these mistakes. He needs to find savings somewhere on the roster, because Miami has some cap issues. Guard is a position that historically you can make up some savings. If you don't want the savings to be Guard then try to find a position that we can go cheap on. Its tough.

    It is very likely that he again this year doesn't go after a high rated Guard in FA. I will be disappointed if he doesn't address this early in the draft though.

    As for Tannehill, I've said it before, if a talented QB in the draft drops to us, pull the trigger, if the organization has decided to move on from him, I can accept it. Trade him and get draft picks to help us for the future. However, in my opinion, don't mortgage the future by throwing away a ton of draft picks to move up. We have too many holes, and not enough cap space to fix problems in Free agency.

    And lastly as for Parker, I was honestly on the "maybe he isn't what we think he is" at the end of last year. My only argument is that he is dirt cheap on that rookie contract. So it doesn't hurt us to have him on the team. I am a little concerned that with his play being what it has been, that none of the other WRs have been able to supplant him. Makes me think we have some weaknesses there.
     
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  26. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    his contract does make it appealing to see what could happen. It's back to being a camp warrior again.
    The way he was used against NE, I'm ok with. 2-3 yard catches to move it from 2nd or 3rd and short. Let's face it, drive sustainability is the key. I was looking at stats today, and Brady and Ben average 300 a game, that's 75 yards a qtr. That's all about drive sustainability. You don't get that by going three and out. So whatever it takes to move the chains. dragging Parker across the field and catching 3-4 yard catches moves the chains. I am ok with that
     
  27. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Im going to make one thing clear for people: just because you start a thread you dont get to control who posts in the thread or the narrative in the thread. If you dont like someones thoughts on a topic, too bad. There is an ignore option for a reason. Use it. Personal attacks and passive aggressive bad mouthing of other posters are not ok. Clean it up or leave...you can do that willingly or unwillingly.
     
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  28. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    are you reading Fin D's replies?
     
  29. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Yes. As well as the posts leading up to said replies.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2017
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  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I promise I'll do better not getting sucked in. I am sorry for my part in it.
     
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  31. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    No one at any point of time stopped rooting for the Dolphins to win. That never occurred a single time. No one ever got offended. Quit making stuff up.
     
  32. pdaj

    pdaj Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    The last 4 games, Stephone Anthony’s played 18.2, 25.7, 40.3, and 14.8% of defensive snaps. I assume that most of these snaps are on 3rd down in place of Timmons or Allen, depending upon the distance. Has anyone noticed his play, have any insight as to whether he’s contributed to the defense’s recent upswing?
     
  33. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    You bring up a good point. No one seems to be allowed to be critical of the Phins. It always has to be positive. Mediocrity is positive. The minute you post thought provoking ideas, challenging the norm, the threat looms
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2017
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  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Cutler's play has often been a negative this year. Discussing why it is or what the possible reasons for it being poor at times is perfectly fine to discuss.

    Saying OMG Cutler sux fire everybody!!!!! Is not productive, not thought provoking and not the point of the board.

    That's the difference.
     
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  35. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

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    So, Fin D and dirtylandry are the same person? We are all Negan... oops, I mean Phin Fans.

    Anyway, there was some talk of Anthony taking third down reps from Timmons. I sure hope he continues to show something cause it’d be so nice to have a complete LB Corp. Seen Allen making plays as well but nothing jumps out that I’ve noticed.
     
  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So now you're telling us when we're allowed to be offended? And that's not supposed to offend anyone? That's the entire reason you/Landry offend so many people on here and why we can't wait until both accounts are perma-banned.

    You just can't comprehend that everyone has a right to their own opinion and/or the proper way to disagree with someone.
     
  37. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And this is why I just don't think you will ever get it. What a load of manure you just wrote. Of course people are allowed to be critical of the Dolphins, their play over the years has warranted it. The part you do not get is that there is a way to disagree with people. Like being factual, logical and respectful. Nothing wrong with being passionate and disagreeable....nothing. Nothing wrong with being critical. The threat looms for some because they can't follow the rules, even after being told and/or suspended. Fin D and Keyfin, two posters you seem to give the most push back, are two that I have had disagreements with on here. Fin D(Philbin) and Keyfin(Matt Moore) were two topics that I was on the critical side of with them. Sometimes got heated, Sometimes got silly, Sometimes got stubborn. But in the end, right or wrong, we can agree to disagree. Plenty of other topics we are 100% agreeable. Believe it or not, all of us, have been plenty wrong about players and coaches and the right way to do things. Insulting the mods, who btw, make no $$, and keep this site moving along, is a very fine way to find yourself on the outside looking in....and if that happens, looking in the mirror will be the easy way to find out who is to blame.
     
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  38. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    Well, R.A.B., challenging ones opinion is one thing but going all out to try and change someone`s mind ( because they don`t agree with you) in an aggressive manner is where the problem lies.
     
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  39. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    If the same 3 or 4 people would follow the terms of service then it wouldnt have to be that way. Seeing as how thats a challenge for some, its the way those people make it. It doesnt apply for the random poster who has never done anything wrong. Its for the same group who finds the need to continuously name call, display passive-aggressive behavior towards anyone who disagrees with them, or just act like a general putz. This post is a perfect example of that type of behavior. This board is for people who can act civil even towards those they cant find common ground with on a particular topic.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2017
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  40. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Im critical of this team frequently, so are many others. Other people find a way to do it without being a general nuisance, name call or call out others. It is possible to disagree with people without acting in such a way. Try it, its a lot more pleasant.
     

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