If I hear that name on draft day I will be sorely dissapointed. Sure it'd be nice to have a stud NT, but finding one in the draft is next to impossible. Consider that last year the Steelers used a top pick on DT Evander Hood then franchised the 33 yr old Casey Hampton this year. The Pats spent early picks on Ron Brace and Myron Pryor in 2009 only to franchise (28yo) Vince Wilfork last week. Green Bay drafted BJ Raji in the 1st round last year but that didnt stop them from franchising (31 yo) Ryan Pickett. The 49ers have former 1st rounder Kentwaan Balmer and veteran back up Ike Sopoaga on the roster, yet they still chose to franchise (29 yo)Aubrayo Franklin. In addition to guaranteeing a high salary, franchising players typically upsets the franchisee to the Nth degree, so a tag shouldnt be taken lightly. The fact that these (well run) teams declined to even let these aging veteran NTs hit the market despite having already spent high picks on thier replacements speaks to thier lack of confidence in those draft pick's ability to step in, as well as their lack of confidence in this years crop of draftees. The leagues top NTs, Wilfork, Jay Ratliff, Kris Jenkins, Hampton, Jamal Williams, Kelly Gregg, Shaun Rogers and Jason Ferguson are all near, at or above 30. Cincinati's Domatka Peko (25 yo) is the lone exception, but even he will be entering his 6th season this year. The idea that Miami will succeed where these other teams have failed is highly dubious, borderline delusion in my opinion. IMO the 1st/2nd round is reserved for players who can contribute right away. The only exception would be a franchise QB. Spending high picks and large sums on players who are projects is a recipe for disaster. A typical DT to NT convert doesnt come into his own for 4-5 years, if at all. By that time, his 20-35 million dollar contract will be coming to an end. With as many holes as Miami has, they dont have the luxury of using a #12 pick on a anyone who cant step in and play right away. Players are needed at ILB, OLB, WR, TE, and possibly S. A project NT who can cut his teeth at DE or on the practice squad is a good idea in the later rounds, but at #12? No way. Ferguson looks like he'll make it back, Solai has proven he can hold his own, theres no guarantee that Dan Williams will do any better than 3rd on the depth chart, assuming Miami would even consider holding three NTs in the first place. Randy Starks and Tony McDaniel can both play NT in a pinch, so a 3rd NT is a stretch. Dez Bryant and/or Rolando McClain may be available at 12. Earl Thomas and Eversen Griffin will most likely be available. All four could start for Miami TOMMORROW. CJ Spiller can be a KR/PR, he turns Ted Ginn into trade bait, and with Ricky's retirement/Ronnie's contract expiration coming this year, RB may soon be a need for a team built on the OL and running game. Thats five players who can step in and play right away, and thats what you want when youre giving a guy an 8 figure bonus and a 25-35 million dollar deal. NT projects, save those for later in the draft, much later.
I don't think anyone would claim we should take Williams over Bryant or McClain. If either of those players are still there, then we should take them. But after that, I would argue Williams is definitely worth taking there. Almost all the players you named are DEs. Isaac Sopoaga, Balmer, and Hood play DE, not NT. Tony McDaniel and Starks are both DEs. In fact, Starks is a phenom DE. Soliai is the only true NT we have outside of Ferguson, and I don't see him returning personally. The packers, and patriots franchised their guys because they have a guy waiting in the wings but aren't quite ready yet (Franchise tag is only a 1-year band-aid solution). People point to the patriots draft last year as a bust and that's just silly. In 2 years Brace will be a premier DL in this league, im positive of that. (Pryor was a 6th rounder btw, not an early pick) And Raji is going to be even better. NT is a rough position to fill. That's why these teams hold on to the best ones for as long as they can. But if you have a shot at a real one, then you gotta go for it. The unfortunate problem is it is not a pick that's going to help you right away, and some fans hate that. But remember, Vince Wilfork was drafted by the patriots originally. He wouldn't be there if they didn't draft him when they had the chance. In 6 years, will we be saying "man, we coulda had Dan Williams" like we're saying it about Wilfork now? (nothing against carey, of course)
Well I guess it depends on whether or not you feel he's really a project or not. NT's are at a premium around the league if the front office feels he's a year or so away from being a bigtime NT then its worth the 12th pick IMO. Obviously immediate impact and the BPA are considerations but when you look around the league NT's command big contracts because they are so important. I do think its important to have some immediate impact but really not picking players because they take time to develop is a pretty stupid reason not to draft them, just about every player takes years to develop into a great player. Rare players just walk in and dominate, most take a few years to come into their own.
I'd say Hood and Sopoaga play DE b/c Hampton and Franklin play NT. Same goes for Raji and Picket. Neither Brace nor Pryor was even the backup NT for New England, it was Mike Wright from what I saw. None of those guys played DE in college, they were all tackles. My concern is that we'll spend a top pick on a guy who MIGHT at some point in the distant future, become a solid contributor. We just dont have the luxury of doing that with the amount of holes on the team. Not sure how youre "positive" that Brace will be a premier DT, like I said, theres not a NT in the league with less than 5 yrs experience who's anywhere near the top. Same goes for Raji, what have you seen that I havent? As for the Packers, Id argue that they'd have been better off taking Michael Oher to help protect thier QB instead of Raji last year. Clifton and Tauscher are um, not very good. TJ Lang is the worst... Hindsight is 20/20 but what Im saying applies to the upcming draft. I cant take another year of Channing Crowder filling the wrong holes, Gibril Wilson stealing money, no one setting the edge, and a buch of WR who couldnt start for any other team in the league. Oh, and Joey Haynos CANNOT see the field for us ever again. If Williams was an absoulte stud then thats one thing. But who's to say he's any better at NT than Price from UCLA or any of the others, its alot of conjecture and guesswork. We got two 1st round studs in Long and Davis, proven players at thier position. We took a chance on Pat White and it blew up in our faces, no more big risks till day 3 please.
Any DT drafted to play NT is a project. And if Williams was a STUD he'd never make it past Denver and Buffalo, they both need a NT even more than we do. Truth is, projecting how a DT will fit as a NT is one of the hardest projections to make. You just dont know, and as I posted, ALL of the good ones have been in the league for at least 5 years, most are around 30. Its not a position where you can just come out of college and start playng right away. I dont mind a guy needing time to develop, but to pay a guy #12 money while he does nothing is crazy. If we take Williams, theres no way he starts at NT right away. He probably ends up at DE, which is already locked down by Starks, Langford, Merling and McDaniel. He wont be playing special teams, so what can he do besides ride the bench and take up a roster spot? On the other hand, Earl Thomas can play for us this year. Same for Eversen Griffen, Dez, McClain, Spiller, and any number of other players. There are some other NT prospects we should look at in the later rounds, but right now its the most overdrafted position in the league and I dont believe in reaching, especially for a backup.
All of these other NTs that you mention were the same as Dan Williams when they were drafted. Even though they may have looked good in college there was no guarantee that they would be good in the NFL. Dan Williams may be a risk at NT but so are any other pick in the first round. NT is a premium position and they are hard to find as evidenced by all of the franchising of the position. You mention the success of Jake Long and Davis well IMO we have to trust in Ireland and Parcells judgement on whomever we pick in the first round. This team has had a lot of disappointments over the years in 1st round picks but Parcells and Ireland are two for two so far and I have faith they will be just as studious in their 1st round pick this year. There may be more popular picks than who they select but I say we have a pretty good chance with whomever it is. I just hope they pick the "best" player available not the most popular pick.
Its as simple as this...why do teams have two potential starters as NT in the NFL? anyone...anyone?? oh yea that is because you DO NOT LET NT'S WALK AWAY!!! They are far too necessary in 3-4 defenses and what are the chances your NT's get hurt...or play the whole game!!! and all the players that got franchised would have been hunted like wild boar because EVERYONE WANTS THEM...and plus the franchise tag for NT is very cheap, something like 6-7 million Dan Williams fits our scheme, is a top 15 talent, and is a fierce competitor that has been a proven player, he was on a Tennessee team that was focused on Lane Kiffin and Eric Berry! He is a great talent and would fit nicely into our system, woud he be nice a few spots down...yes...but if we can't I would take him any day over McLAIN!!! Dez Bryant...no...I think he's the next Andre Johnson, so I would take him in a heart beat...and due to his no show combine I think its possible he does slip to us now!!!! but McLain....I was all for him about 2 weeks ago, when I knew nothing about him and just listened to ESPN, but after doing a bit of research and looking at other posts from NFL analysts I have realized....he is nothing special, he is smart and big...but so are many ppl in the NFL, he doesn't have the speed, skill set, or push to be a Patrick Willis, which is the only ILB I would take at that spot. He takes far too many plays off and his 40 time will be terrible and drop his status...he is not what we need... its Dez Bryant, Dan Williams, OLB, or CJ Spiller...then McLain...on my board at #12 If Dez isn't there at #12 look for a trade down, which could happend for CJ if he times well at the combine
So let me get this straight, because other teams have failed at drafting a stud NT, then we shouldn't try? But you'd suggest we take a WR, for example, when the history of teams drafting a stud WR is equally dismal? Methinks you're over thinking the issue.
What I really think that you've pointed out is how difficult it is to find a quality NT. Particularly since the players you mentioned that teams franchised were former first rounders (with the exception of Franklin). So, it doesn't mean you shouldn't draft a player in the first round. It just means that you better draft well in the first round, particularly if you draft for the NT position. That's much easier said than done.
Really great post. But, I must counter. NT is largely a position in which you get what you pay for. Looking at what I would consider the “elite” NT in the league and their draft position highlights this point. Casey Hampon- 19th Overall Wilfork-21st Overall Jenkins- 44th Overall Ngata- 12th Overall Raji-9th Overall Jamal Williams- Supplemental draft 2nd round tender Balmer-29th Overall Shaun Rodgers-61st Overall Just in continuation to look at top DT’s who could potentially make the switch to NT: Haynesworth- 15th Overall Kevin Williams- 9th Overall Pat Williams-Undrafted Stroud-13th Overall Henderson-9st Overall Although it is possible to find a “quality” NT in later rounds: Jay Ratliff- 229 Overall Jason Ferguson- 229 Overall It’s not a coincidence that the truly elite NT’s in the league were taken no later than the second round. As well as most of the potential players who could make the switch. It seems to be a position in which you get what you give up, and why they are in such commodity. I agree that Dan William’s stock is a bit inflated due to the large amounts of teams which are moving into the 3-4 alignment, but history shows he’s the best shot in the draft. NT’s are arguably the most integral part of a 3-4. If our braintrust decides he is that type of player and worthy of the #12 I would not be disappointed in the least. They are just saying they have faith in Williams to become that elite NT. If they don't feel that way they will pass. You can't pass on a player like this because you beleive it will take them time to develop.
i won't lie, if McClain and Bryant are off the board at our pick, I will no longer have any personal preference towards who we should take. Kindle, pierre-Paul, thomas, Spiller (i'd love spiller but i dont think we can justify it) Dan williams, they all seem like pretty good picks. I think we need McClain the most and i sure hope he's a dolphin, but the Broncos probably need him just as badly.
With so many real needs on Defense (NT,ILB,OLB,FS) this is one of the reasons I hope that we can land Dansby for the ILB spot. I don't see how Bryant will fall to us at 12 and I don't really think they would go receiver anyway. If we can check off ILB before the draft it would mean that it would be a choice between OLB (insert favorite here, Pierre-Paul, Kindle, Graham) and NT. If that is the choice, I can see Dan Williams pretty easily at 12. NT is turning into a premium position so taking a good one at 12 does not seem a reach.
Williams would be my 5th or 6th choice. After Bryant, McClain, Spiller and Brandon Graham, then maybe Williams. Wouldn't shock me if we draft a NT with our second pick though.
Of course we should try, just not with a first round pick thats going to cost $25-30 million dollars. Have to disagree on the NT=WR, its not even close. Percy Harvin, Desean Jackson? I could go on but how many NTs with less than five years experience are even starting? Much less making the Pro Bowl or winning rookie of the year. WR is ASTRONOMICALLY easier to play than NT and much easier to project as well.
Agree, Id say you dont draft NTs as much as you "grow" them. It takes years upon years to learn the position so saying that youre going to fill your need at NT by drafting one just doesnt vibe w/ the facts. Even if you do draft well, the player will need a long development process, meanwhile youre stuck paying his high salary while playing with whoever you had on your roster in the first place. Everyone seems to have given up on Solai but last year was his 3rd at NT and like I said the youngest quality NT in the league (Peko) has 5 years under his belt. I think giving up on Big Paul is a bit premature. Money wise, Knowshon Moreno got 5 yrs 23 million, 13 guaranteed @ #12 last year. I dont see the logic in spending that kind of money on a developmental player when there are serious holes elsewhere.
Well I agree on Bryant, but he's no Andre Johnson. More like a Chad Johnson, which is still pretty good . I agree on McClain also, but his stock is starting to fall and that tells me alot of teams may be bad mouthing him behind the scenes, and that tells me that alot of teams want him. But his tape doesnt impress me so I'm torn, hopefully we nab Dansby that'll settle the issue. Where I disagree is on Williams. I dont think anyone knows whether he "fits our scheme" or not. He played the 3 or the 1 technique i college, never played NT in his life.
As you pointed out, some NT are taken early, some are taken later. Whats undeniable is that they all take many years to groom and learn the position. I'll cry my eyes out if we pass on a player who can step in and start this year for a guy who probably wont even see the field at his drafted position. Teams with no gaping holes can afford to do that, we cant.
That would be great, Dansby means we can cut bait with Crowder via trade or release. And it removes McClain from the draft board as well. There's a chance Bryant could fall, there could be 4 OTs taken in the top 10, 2 QBs, the 2 DTs, Eric Berry and Joe Haden. If Perre Paul, Kindle, or any other player gets drafted over Bryant, he'll be there for us at 12. Probbaly a longshot, but not impossible. If Dez is gone oh well, we can go THomas at S, Griffen for SOLB or maybe even Spiller. I dont like Pierre Paul, Kindle, Graham etc, all of those guys are WOLB, and our problem is strong side.
But with that logic, you'd never get one. You have to draft them, and draft them early. The best ones that you've listed were drafted in the first round, whether they actually started immediately or not. Ideally, you'd draft one to groom before you actually needed him to start, much like other players/positions. Unfortunately, we don't have that luxury now.
I'm just praying we nab Dansby so we can go BPA at 12. And then I pray Berry falls to 12 because after ILB (maybe even before it) FS is our biggest need on defense IMVHO.
Kris Jenkins 2nd Jay Ratliff 7th Domata Peko 4th Aubrayo Franklin 5th Ryan Pickett 1st (29) Jason Ferguson 7th Vince Wilfork 1st (21) Gabe Watson 4th Shaun Rogers 2nd Jamal Williams 2nd Casey Hampton 1st (19) Tank Tyler 3rd Kelly Gregg 6th Not a single NT thats starting today was drafted as high as #12, none were drafted in the top 20 at all, and there were just as many starters drafted in rounds 4-7 as there were in rounds 1 and 2. Ideally isnt the word, its required that you groom a NT. Hardly any college teams play 3-4 so teams never have any film of these prospects playing the position. That makes drafting a NT even more of a crap shoot than any other position. I disagree that we cant afford to not bring in a starter at NT, we have two guys capable of starting and two guys capable of filling in briefly. The luxury we dont have is of using a #1 and paying a guy 5-7 million a year to sit on the bench and learn how to play the game while we have gaping holes at ILB, OLB, S, WR, TE and both our RBs are slated to levae the team next year.
try to remember that the 3-4 is relatively new to the nfl. Sure the steelers and patriots have been running it for many many years (and surprise surprise, the two best NTs in the league play for the steelers and patriots) but most other franchises just switched to the 3-4 only a few years ago. Like us. So of course there weren't many NTs taken that high in past drafts, the 3-4 was only being used by a few teams. Now half the league runs it, thus making NT a far more valuable need, and this raising draft stock.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ferguson decided to retire. There's no way we can go into the 2010 season assuming Ferg can / will stay healthy, we need a replacement we can count on incase more injuries occur... Solai hasn't proven anything in my opinion. If Solai was the answer, and the coaches felt that way, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation about drafting Dan Williams... There's never a guarantee, with ANY player you draft. Why should Williams be any different??... Huh??... Unfortunately, neither of those impact players will likely fall to us at #12... Personally, I have no problem drafting Williams at #12, it's a position of major importance for us right now, and one that isn't very easy to fill / fix. I'm not saying that drafting Williams would immediately solve our issues at NT, but it's a good place to start when looking into the near future... ~B~
Absolutely no doubt that its a crap shoot. Very hard to draft a pure NT for a 3-4. But I still contend that you need to spend a high draft pick to get a good one. With the list you provided, if you had to rank them, I think you'd see the players drafted in the first two rounds dominate the rankings over those drafted in rounds 4-7. And in that case, you have to "bite the bullet" at some point. You just can't hope that you'll find a gem in the later rounds. But, you make an excellent point. Much of the question comes down to risk (as does most of the draft it seems). Does the team take the risk and draft somebody like Williams (with the associated contract) that high? I think it's clear that we need a NT, but does that risk of drafting a NT that high outweigh the drafting of possibly "lesser" risk players at need positions? It's gonna be quite interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months.
GMJ, i'm not for arguing who should be taken at 12 during draft day, but i must counter the argument that since the other teams franchised tagged their Nt's even though they recently spent a high pick on a NT such as last year holds no water that the player drafted is considered a bust. There could be several reasons why they drafted a young NT and also Franchised the vet. Perhaps to have depth, a player to teach the younger player the position for another year, to make sure the young player doesn't get burned out early in their career as it's a physically demanding position. The young player may have only had limited opp. last year because of situation, not nessecarily because of performance. Look at the trouble we were in when Ferg went down. It became an unsettling situation to deal with for the whole team, why? because good effective NT's are a rare commodity in the NFL. Not to mention if a team franchises a guy and trades him it could bring back huge rewards back the other way, since most teams would overvalue that position on an open market. By franchising a proven commodity it can help them leverage more value with a trading partner, instead of losing a player for nothing due to free agency. And since those teams know how many other teams have switched to the 3-4 and are in dire need of a NT, since they have a young and old one they know many teams are in short supply and will thus overpay. Their stockpiling gold by using a high draft pick on a NT as well as franchising a proven vet at the position. The more teams who switch to a 3-4, the better for the teams with depth at NT. Brace didn't get much opportunity, Raji developed nicely over the season, i'm not sure about Hood but didn't he get injured early in the season? I certainly wouldn't call any of these young players busts by anymeans yet. As for probowls. Since there is only one position each year on each squad, the odds of a rookie with limited playing time making it is slim to none. Most rookies who make the probowl need to play every game, start every game, ie: Joe Thomas or Jake Long. They started every game right out of the gate. Not the case with the afformentioned NT's from last years draft. To me the risk with taking a NT early, is that he might not be ready to contribute right away, splitting time with a vet, while we build depth at the position.
The 3-4 first came to the NFL in the 70's. Its not new at all, but it has become more popular than ever. That doesnt mean you go out and reach for a guy though, not unless youre ocmpletely exposed at the position, which Miami isnt.
So you want to pay #12 money to a possible "replacement"? Watch the film. Solai played well as Ferg's backup early, and he was OK as the starter. He can only go for a handful of plays at a time and he fatigued late in games, got lazy, started holding etc so I expect the coaching staff to continue workin on his weight/conditioning. Dan Williams is not an upgrade. At least not any time soon. C'mon man, use some common sense. Of course theres no guarantee, DT to NT is one of the hardest projections to make. Sigh. Watch the film. Notice Starks and McDaniel subbing for Solai at NT. Either that or we'd go to a 4-3 front to help ease the burden. Suh. McCoy. Bradford. Clausen. Berry. Okung. Haden. Campbell. Davis. Pierre-Paul. If those are the top ten picks we will have a choice between one or the other (50-50 IMO). Add in Derrick Morgan or another suprise riser and we could have either one. No one expected Vontae Davis to be around at #25 last year either. WR, S, ILB and OLB are major issues as well. We can pay 25-30 million to a game ready starter at those positions. Or we can pay the $ to draft a DT and TRY to turn him into a NT, hoping that within a few years time he MIGHT be ready to contribute. You may disagree but I wouldnt even give a thought to Williams at 12, a potential NT in the later rounds is the way to go.
I agree we need to address the NT position, and I agree that at some point a high draft pick may need to be spent. Just not this year, not with this team. There will be guys sitting at 12 who can step in and start/make plays for us tommorrow. You know the names, Bryant, Griffen, Thomas, Spiller, Morgan, McClain, etc. To pass on those guys for a maybe-if-possibly guy just doesnt make sense. There are many holes on this team and the first round pick is our best chance to fill one, we cant afford to take any more risk than what's necessary IMO.
I agree with all of that . My point is that drafting a DT to convert to NT is a project, a multi year project. Meaning you cant fill a hole at NT by drafting one, he wont be ready to play. And 30 million is too much to pay for a guy who is just learning how to play his position. If we were loaded on both sides of the ball, with no holes to speak of then I'd say a NT for the future is a good idea. But we lost games last year because we couldnt defend the deep ball, couldnt complete the deep ball, couldnt hold the edge, couldnt pressure the QB, couldnt force turnovers etc. Dan Williams wont solve any of that.
Yeah i suppose that's why teams who did take nose tackles early, also had a vet who is not declining by anymeans. They could afford that luxury. I also agree we can't. We need a LB, S or WR in my opinion. If he was a legit NT not a conversion from DT then i would argue we take him. But i also think he isn't the right pick. Defending the deep ball would be a good place to start. We were close in almost everygame and our offense was able to put up points. I think the safety postion and the growing pains at corner, having to start both rookies for half the season while the vet was injured really hurt us. It was great for their development but we did give up way too many quick scores. Eric Berry falling to us at 12 would be a blessing, but i have no expectations of that happening. ILB/OLB/WR might be our most logical choice at 12.
I would add a TE to that list but I totally agree. We need to replace all four of our linebackers, we need a FS in the worst way and of course a #1 WR. I would love to see the Fins draft E Thomas in the 1st a LB in the 2nd and D Thomas (WR) in the 3rd.
