Current draft order: Qb's likely gone by our pick

But those 4 wins were just SO EXCITING!!!!

lol

 

Then I hope going 5-11 is worth then having to trade a ton of picks to get a qB, that we could have merely drafted at 2 or 3 wins. We got a few wins against average teams. At that time, there could be some positives out of it. Not any more.

 

This draft order is calculated using the SOS only of the 13 opponents each team has already faced. IMO, it's a flawed and less accurate manner of calculating SOS. The more accurate way of doing it is to calculate the SOS of all 16 opponents for every team. If you do that then Miami is picking 7th behind Washington and Jacksonville but ahead of Cleveland...and that's an important sticking point with respect to the QB thing.

This SOS stuff that everyone does is always done on the basis of "if the season ended today", which IMO is stupid. The season's not ending today. There's no reason the season will end today. If you calculate SOS based on all 16 opponents then you're calculating on the basis of "If the season keeps going at the rate that it's been going"...which has a much, much, much, much, much higher probability of happening than some plague sweeping the earth and forcing the NFL to stop playing after Week 14.

 

Ck, any chance Osweiler comes out with the Arizona State clusterudge of a coaching search?

 

Beating the sh*t out of teams is fun, not gonna lie.

 

I don't know man. But he's got to be looking at it and thinking, **** this noise.

 

Everything you mentioned here is correct. I had one quick question though, does the SOS of inter-divisional teams count once or twice? In other words, since we play the Jets, Bills, and Patriots twice does their record account for our strength of schedule once or twice?

The reason that is pertinent is because of the Dolphins and Browns remaining schedule:
The Browns play:
Arizona (6-7) - Remaining opponents (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Seattle)
Baltimore (10-3) - Remaining opponents (San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati)
Pittsburgh (10-3) - Remaining opponents (San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland)

The Dolphins play:
Buffalo (5-8) - Remaining opponents (Miami, Denver, New England)
New England (10-3) - Remaining opponents (Denver, Miami, Buffalo)
New York (8-5) - Remaining opponents (Philadelphia, New York Giants, Miami)

Now, assuming that both Miami and Cleveland lose out in my opinion we will draft before the Cleveland Browns based on these reasons:
1.) Inter-divisional games (Say the Buffalo Bills vs the New England Patriots) won't matter one way or another since it simultaneously increases and decreases your SOS.
2.) The only games that matter for our SOS is Buffalo Bills vs. Denver, New England vs. Denver, New York vs. Philadelphia, and New York vs. New York Giants.
The only games that matter in Cleveland's SOS are Arizona vs. Cincinnati, Arizona vs. Seattle, Baltimore vs. San Diego, Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco, Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis.

[EDIT: I just realized that the Dolphins already played the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia, and New York Giants. These games will act as buffers as sorts because they shouldn't really effect our SOS since, UNLESS your inter-division games count twice for SOS.... I am too lazy to see how this plays in to the Cleveland Browns situation right now, but if both teams lose this week I will do a through analysis to see what would happen. It just really helps us that Cleveland is in a much better division record wise.]


I am also wondering if I would actually be better to be behind Cleveland because then we would know exactly what we have to give up to secure a QB (by trading up above Cleveland). If we are behind Cleveland you don't know if they would work on trading up for a QB and try to leapfrog us... but the bottom line is that the teams looking for a QB behind us know they are in an action spot, a spot that they know they must move up or do something to secure "their QB." Look for the team drafting after the Washington Redskins to trade down, and receive a coupe in return.

 

I think they're going to win that AZ game too. They have the kind of defense that frustrates young and impatient quarterbacks...it's the same defense the Dolphins ran back in the early 2000's. Seneca Wallace is going to show Browns fans what Colt McCoy is missing, IMO. That's based on my evaluation of the two players in 2010.

 

Yes. Every game a team plays puts another record into the SOS. If you play the Bills twice and the Bills are currently 5-8, then you add 5-8 to your total opposition records for the first game, and then 5-8 to your total opposition records for the second game.

I think the Browns will win this weekend against the Cardinals and the Dolphins will not win another game this year. I think the SOS margin will be maintained to where if we are tied we'll still pick ahead of them, however I do not think we'll be tied. I think Miami will end up picking #4 overall.

 

I think the Rams may draft a QB as well. I know they have a young guy, but what has he done?

 

Sam Bradford has no one around him. They need an OL and some receivers.

 

He may not have anyone around him, but he himself has played just awful. I mean terrible. He's left plenty of plays out there he should have made.

 

I never focus on the projections b/c there are too man variables. For example, the health of Long's back will greatly impact our likelihood of winning over the last three games. I also like more than just three QBs in this draft if all of the expected guys declare. So I'm not going to panic and start saying that the QBs are likely to be gone by our pick.

 

Without a doubt. Especially the Bills game.

 

I'm not worried about the Browns or the Redskins winning games or losing games. I firmly believe that we'll trade up for Luck or Barkley. I think Ross knows we need that "Franchise QB". He will tell Ireland: get Luck or Barkley or get another job. Of course, my opinion is based on nothing!!!

 

I haven't watched a full RG3 game. He sure is well-spoken! I've watched a few Luck games and a few Barkley games and those dudes pass the eyeball test (which is the only test I know how to administer. I admit I know nothing about hip swivel and release points and all that other stuff). RG3 looks like the real deal tho. Anybody who can both throw the deep ball AND outrun a linebacker for a first down is dangerous. I omitted him because I think Ross wants a prototypical pocket QB. Just my hunch. I'd be surprised if we get him. Happy, but surprised.

 

RG3 is intriguing. If he actually is really accurate with the deep ball, man lights out! How do you defend a guy with his wheels -AND- deep accuracy?