Comparing Chad Henne's first 3 years to Drew Brees first 3 years

I hope he becomes as good as Drew Brees

 

I was not sold on Brees during his first three years. Which shows that I can be surprised by a player.

Will Henne be someone who succeeds or someone who is just good enough. He has the tools.

 

Drew Brees is a complete anomaly. How many QBs sucked their first 3 years and went on to become a perennial Pro-Bowler? Not many!

Chad Henne being the next Drew Brees is possible.
Chad Henne being the next Drew Brees is improbable.

 

I think one of the reasons that the quarterbacks in the league is not as good as it was 10 years ago or so is the fact that quarterbacks don't get three years to suck before turning it on.

 

I agree with you 100%. However, the only QB I can think of that was allowed 3 years (or, to be fair, call it 2 years plus a little bit) is Terry Bradshaw. Bradshaw pretty much started and sucked his first 5 years in the league before he finally "got it".

 

Problem is, those seasons do not happen in vaccuums, "Brees threw for such and such with a rating of so and so"

How about W/L's?

2001: irrelevant he had 27 passes
2002: 8-8
2003: 2-9
2004: 9-7
2005: 10-6

29-30

Not bad right?

How about..terrible, the Charger fans and Marty S wanted to run him out of SD on a rail so they drafted..Eli Manning..who was traded for Phil Rivers, Brees got one more shot had a decent yr in 05:

64% 3,600 yds 25 Td's and 15 int's.

But injured his shoulder as we all know by now, add in guess who Brees's running back was?

# of carries:

2002 372
2003 313
2004 339
2005 339

L Tomlinson, but gosh, to hear it, Drew Brees was all on his lonesome down in SD and developed himself without any one else who was any good..

 

Good point. Never know how a QB will pan out. Henne could turn out to be very good. He certainly has the tools and can make all the throws. Consistency is the issue. If he can be consistent, then we have ourselves a very capable QB. He also needs a little help with a consistent running game (which Brees has enjoyed mostly) and a solid offensive line.

 

Chargers did the smart thing. After a terrible 3rd year, they drafted a QB high. We didn't. We're stuck with Henne.

 

They also had the 5th pick in the draft, during a very strong QB draft.

I highly doubt the Chargers would have drafted a QB at 15 in this years draft or they would have traded up for Gabbert.

 

The point that I am making is Brees had help at running back via LT, Henne has not as of yet had that Feature Back to bail him out like Brees had in LT, this is one of the reasons why I am so strongly in favor of adding to the running game and relying on it more as it helps a Qb to develop ala Rivers and Brees.

If one looks at the W/L record, it can easily be argued that Henne is better then Brees was at that point in time, Henne's first two yrs he is 14-15 Brees was 10-17, which should tell you something about Dolfans and young qb's..they do not wish to hear "developing"...

Perhaps one mistook my intentions, I am not saying "Henne sux" or "Henne needs more time" what I am saying is Henne needs that running back to take the burden off of him.

 

Yeah, that Brees was just not a SB winning caliber Qb..oh wait.

 

That is a good point and i can't believe between Ricky and Ronnie , Henne had terrible help this last season.
Hopefully we have a running game this year to make things easier on the whole team not just Henne but even the Defense would appreciate it.(and us poor fans)

 

Well, I am the largest Daniel Thomas fan I know for a reason, Henne needs some help, something a bit stronger then the 3.7 ypc.

 

Actually the Chargers drafted Eli Manning. Either way, they brought in legitimate competition. That is something the Dolphins have failed to do with Henne.

 

It would be great if Henne finds his way on this list.

Chad Henne, 26 Starts, 569 Comp, 925 Att, 62%, 6108 Yds, 6.6 YPA, 27 TD, 32 Int, Rate 76
Phil Simms, 24 Starts, 327 Comp, 667 Att, 49%, 4061 Yds, 6.0 YPA, 28 TD, 33 Int, Rate 62
Troy Aikman, 26 Starts, 381 Comp, 692 Att, 55%, 4328 Yds, 6.3 YPA, 20 TD, 36 Int, Rate 62
Drew Brees, 27 Starts, 525 Comp, 882 Att, 60%, 5267 Yds, 6.0 YPA, 28 TD, 31 Int, Rate 73
Warren Moon, 30 Starts, 459 Comp, 827 Att, 55%, 6047 Yds, 7.3 YPA, 27 TD, 33 Int, Rate 73
Dan Fouts, 26 Starts, 308 Comp, 626 Att, 49%, 4254 Yds, 6.8 YPA, 16 TD, 36 Int, Rate 56
Steve Young, 25 Starts, 307 Comp, 570 Att, 53%, 3787 Yds, 6.6 YPA, 21 TD, 21 Int, Rate 72

http://www.pro-football-reference.com

The odds are pretty long for the kid, but not unprecedented.

The good news is that there seems to be a level of good young talent on both sides of the ball that hasn't been here in years. The bad news is that someone needs to drive the bus and Henne's fallen asleep at the wheel about 1/2 the time. So far.

 

What are you talking about. I live in SD. I enjoy telling everyone who will listen that if they kept Brees San Diego probably already wins a SB by now.

But what they did was smart. They hedged their bets. letting Brees go for zero compensation was stupid, as was letting Turner go, but that's AJ. Hedging their bets was smart. We didn't. We're dumb.

 

SMH

Now if one had the #1 overall, and Chad Henne, maybe there is a point to be made.

 

Wins and losses, that is all that matters smahatz, everything else is conversation.

 

With all due respect, Henne didn't regress last season. It was his stats that regressed, and they did so b/c the entire offense around him regressed. He improved or stayed the same in virtually every aspect of his game. Some of those improvements might have been slight, but they were improvements none the less. The area that didn't improve was has deep passing; however, we took away his only deep threat and failed to replace it.
Hopefully by mid season Henne & Gates will have some chemistry developed.

 

All true, my quibble with Henne is I do not like the uncertainty he represents, he could get better, he could get worse, how much time should be spent on him?

And by midseason, if he has not developed timing already we will once again be de facto eliminated from the playoffs, keep in mind the schedule is front and back loaded, we start out say 1-3, it is not just 1-3, it is 3 conference losses.

That is what screwed us in 2010, would like to avoid a repeat in 2011.

 

I fully agree with this. I wish the draft would have provided us with a chance at Stanzi or even Mallet in the third or even Palmer gets cut or Orton is cut so we dont give up picks on someone that isnt better in fact than Henne, someone that no doubt still has it and is proven very good and clearly better. Someone w/o questions. Noone is that for us this year.

But we factpor cost and bring in the best least risk with the ability to compete with Henne. Henne should not be named the starter, he should be given the chance to keep it tho. Yes he had issues last year that no matter what he is to blame for, but it isnt like the rest of the offense was held back by Henne. Ronnie was tentative, the middle of the line was dysfunctional and the star wr was a diva. There was enough surrounding Henne to say if the whole is fixed that he COULD turn around and reach the potential he had in 09

 

Can't argue that it WASN'T the smart thing, but they drafted a QB in a more QB strong draft. This year was certainly not a QB strong year. A lot of "hopefuls." I still have to say the Patriots nabbed the best QB of this draft with Mallet. We didn't get him because of plenty of other needs. Henne still has a chance to prove he can be the guy. He doesn't need a Rivers to prove it. He can get it done or Palmer can get it done ( if we land him -((only other REAL option out there)). It doesn't necessarily take a high draft pick to push you to get to the next level. It take a strong supporting cast. We are still waiting for another Marino. Not gonna happen. We need a good team all around with everyone giving it there all. A strong defense. A consistent o-line coupled with consistent running. Solid QB play. And certainly a much improved special teams play will be huge. It takes it all. Henne can get it done. He has proven everything as an NFL QB but consistency. He can be that given the opportunity WITH all the right tools. If he doesn't, then we'll have to move on next year. This year wasn't the draft to take a gamble on a QB that would likely would have likely been a lesser QB than we already have on our roster.

 

I wonder what they were before the injury, QBR wise, first 9 games, before the benching, and without the bogus int's.

most agree he played well in 2009, well he followed it up until he got benched..lol...If he had some average special teams, a pretty good rungame, and a coach who doesn't **** with his head and his oppurtunities, and minus a bogus call, we would of been in first place.

 

We are told, by the powers that are, there were two QBs rated high on our board that were both gone by the time we picked Pouncey at #15. We didn't move up a few spots because, we are told, we lacked to ammo to do so yet one round later we moved up a round just to get a RB. While both picks we got fit our needs to expect me to believe that we really ever had designs on a QB is pure hogwash!

The whole point of Drew Brees' rise from the ashes is because he is 1. very damn competitive
and 2. was put on the hot seat by his FO because of the Rivers pick at #5 where as he was taken at #32. Henne like Brees was picked to be "The Guy" unlike Brees Henne will have either a street FA or UDFA picked as his competition rather than a First rounder breathing down his neck. I also don't see Henne as anywhere near the TYPE personality of Drew Brees.

In the end it really doesn't matter because as I've said before Its pretty much a given Henne will start for this team. Where we end up after that is pretty much anyones guess!

 

I agree, this is what bothers me. We did not give ourselves any option but to stick with Henne all year and we have no one developing in case he can't put it together. Brees responded to the pressure of a young Qb behind him by outplaying him, if Henne crumbles because we drafted another guy high then good riddance. Right now if Henne fails we are going to be trading up or hoping someone falls in the draft and playing the FA Market for a vet cast off, not good. Especially when we have a really promising young defense in its prime. We should have left ourselves an insurance policy this year IMO.

 

Moving up in the first round is a way more expensive than moving up in later rounds. To get ahead of the Vikings to select Ponder we would have needed to trade our 1st and 3rd. If Ponder wasn't one of the two they were eying, trading up for Gabbert would have cost our 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th.

 

More expensive yes, way more is nothing more than a play on words imho. As well as the fact that a a running back, even a franchise Running back has not near the effect on positive team outcome as that "way more" expensive QB! Case in point Ronnie Brown! Not convinced, how about "Caddylack" Williams? Do you need one, well of course its a team sport! Do you need to give up two extra draft picks just to get one? Maybe you and Mike Ditka think so, however I do not! That is even more true based on the fact that both of our street guys are first rounders that have stated they are more than willing to return if only given the chance.

Color me unimpressed, as for the appearence of those Chunk yardage plays caused by this baby shoe box thinking, I wait in breathless antisipation, fist pumps at the ready! (Just so you know my sarsacm is directed at our great FO/HC types ..... not you)

In the end you and I will just have to agree to disagree.

 

Disagree GA, a Franchise Running back does have a hugely positive impact, not as much as a Franchise Qb, but moreseo then anyother position on the field, a solid Franchise Rb can handle the rock 440 times between rushing attempts and receptions, a "franchise" Qb will have maybe 600 pass attempts in a season.

440 touches vs 540 passing attempts

100 attempts divided by 16 games=6.25 attempts more for the Qb vs the Franchise rb.

That is why I say, our problem is not the Qb per se, our problem is we do not have a running back who can carry the load, in Cleveland for example, Hillis had 270 rushing attempts and 60 receptions for 330 touches and he missed two games.

 

Apples to oranges MB, not "a running back by cmte" a "feature back" the man, a stud, ride the horse, LT, M Turner, not "we have 2 decent backs" as that has proven to simply not be as predictive of a W/L record, and as I have shown, our fortunes have plummeted since that NFL Groupthink has taken hold in Miami.

Put it his way, show me a back who had 300 plus carries and you will show me a team who had a successful season, even the Rams who finished what 6-10? Were in contention on the final week of the season with SJax toting the rock 330 times.

 

Where did I say anything about the value of a QB vs the value of a RB? Your original post questioned the validity of Ireland's statement that we lacked the ammo to move up in the first round and used the fact that we moved up in the second to get a RB as support.

My point is that the cost to move around in the first round is way more (defined as costing picks of much greater value) than to move around in other rounds. So the fact that we were able to move around later does not in any way suggest we had the ability to do so in the first round. The picks I presented earlier are based on the draft value chart and assume that a) the team in the slot above the QB is willing to trade and b) the other team is willing to accept the value on the chart. Its entirely possible that the Texans and/or Dallas had no interest in trading or were only willing to do so at a premium.

 

But wait, the Texans have a Franchise Qb, how can that be?

Titans were starting Rusty Smith, now a Feature Back does not require Drew Brees, but Rusty Smith? Just how honest is Rusty Smith going to keep a defense?

And let us see the teams who had a Feature Back who were successful:

-Atl Turner
-Pit Mendenhall
-Balt Ray Rice
-Rams S Jax
-Jags MJD (299)

Only team that had a 300 carry rusher who had a terrible season was:

-Ced Benson 337

And isn't Carson Palmer a "franchise qb"?

 

I don't agree with the "nobody knows how a QB will turn out" sentiment. IMO you can make some decent guesses if you're good at QB evaluation. I was somebody who believed in Brees after those first three years b/c I saw many things in him that would lead to success given time and the right environment. It's too simplistic to just look at wins and losses or even stats. That ignores cause and effect. All it does is provide a forum for you to look at any result and leap to whatever reason you feel like highlighting and saying "that's the reason".

I don't believe that Henne showed as much promise as Brees did (on the field, not in the stats). But I do believe he showed some promise. I don't think that promise was enough to reasonably expect him to blossom into a franchise guy, but it was enough to reasonably believe that he could blossom into a guy you could win with in the right environment (ie. better play calling that highlighted his strengths and minimized his weaknesses and enough play making weapons around him).

 

I'd expect some common sense Bro, Rusty Smith? Dude, a Rook Qb from FAU?

Texans Defense was massively bad, as in lost games in last 30 seconds bad, recall Jason Allen being burned by Holmes with 15 seconds left in the game?

Now I'll grant a Feature Back will not make everything wonderful, if I made it seem that way that is on me, and my mistake, on the whole though 8 backs had 300 carries, 5 had successful seasons, 3 did not, Foster had a "franchise Qb" and it did not help, CJ had no Qb, Benson had a franchise Qb.