COMMENTARY: Pass on #1? Thanks, I'll Pass on That Idea

Pass at #1? Thanks, I’ll Pass on That Idea.
By Phil Unwin

There has been some discussion of a rather unconventional idea: passing on the #1 overall pick. Harvey Fialkov has put up an article about it at the Sun-Sentinel today, albeit a somewhat tongue-in-cheek one. Mike Florio, of PFT, has moonlighted for The Sporting News, and suggested the same thing.

On its face, the idea seems to have some merit. After all, most people believe that there’s not a huge difference between the top few picks in the draft. By dropping down a couple spots, Miami could save some money and get a player that’s basically the same quality as the guy they’d take at #1, if not the same player they’d take anyway? It’s a winning situation, right?

Well, no, not really. In fact, it’s a horribly stupid idea on multiple levels.

First off, there’s this issue of saving money. The difference in guaranteed money between the first and second overall pick last year was $4.3 million. Spaced out over a six year contract (the norm for a draft pick in this area of the draft), that’s $716,666.67 per year. That’s less than the minimum NFL salary for an 8th year player. Wow, that’s some impressive savings. By letting the Rams go in front of us, we could almost afford to sign Bryan Robinson (again).

The difference between the first and third overall pick was $8.5 million. Again, over a six year deal, that’s $1.42 million per year, or about the going rate for the backup safeties, wide receivers and linebackers the team has been signing with an eye toward improving the special teams.

By letting the Rams, Falcons and Raiders all jump in front of them, the Phins can save about $13 million in guaranteed money. Ah, now we’re talking real money! $2.17 million per year…or about what Reggie Torbor makes.

Broken down by year, the savings by dropping down a few picks aren’t terribly significant, as you can see. They become even less significant when one realizes that Miami still has (according to the magnificent Clumpy), $13.4 million in cap space at present, is currently looking at $36.1 million in space for 2009, and a whopping $69.2 million in 2010.

Nevertheless, the benefits of passing at #1 are established, such as they are. So, what are the disadvantages? The first one that comes readily to mind is the possibility that Miami wouldn’t get the player they want. The Rams would almost certainly take Chris Long, Jake Long, or Glenn Dorsey. Atlanta is supposedly hot for Jake Long, and would probably take him, given the opportunity. The Raiders might well take Chris Long, if he was there. If the Phins allowed those three teams to jump in front of them, they might well be left with…Vernon Gholston? I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sure I’d take Chris Long over Gholston and a backup linebacker with some special teams ability.

Obviously, the longer Miami goes without putting in their pick, the more they limit their options. But jumping in right after the Rams, as demonstrated above, has minimal tangible benefit. Is it really worth letting the Rams go first, and dealing with the uncertainty of who they’d pick, just to have the money to sign a minimum-salary veteran? Especially when Miami already has more then ample cap room for the foreseeable future?

But there’s more to it than that. For one thing, any agent worth his salt would demand #1 overall money. They probably wouldn’t get it (by way of precedent, Kevin Williams didn’t get #7 money when the Vikings picked him at #9 instead of #7), but the training camp holdout would surely be long and acrimonious. The missed time in training camp would certainly ****** the player’s development, which is a problem for a team that’s surely counting on any first round pick to make an immediate impact. The holdout might last into the season, and there’s even the slim possibility that the player would re-enter the 2009 draft. That’s unlikely, but it’s certainly possible, and it should be figured into the calculus of a decision like this.

Beyond that, there’s the fact that the Dolphins would be starting their relationship with their supposed new franchise player on the wrong foot. This player is supposed to be a major part of the foundation for the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins. It’s going to be awfully hard to convince him of his value to the franchise when they were so indifferent to him over a couple other guys that they passed on taking him at #1 to save a few bucks. That’s the sort of thing players tend to remember when they hit free agency a few years later.

You could also kiss Miami’s good reputation with agents goodbye. Passing on the #1 pick to save some money would be seen as an absolute bush-league move by an organization that has always worked hard to convey an image of professionalism. Certainly, whatever agent represented the player Miami picked at #2, 3 or wherever would think twice about steering a free agent toward the Dolphins in the future. In the NFL, as in business, relationships are extremely important, and one should think twice about burning someone you’re going to deal with more than once.

Now yes, I see the counterargument here: “it’s an entirely legal move, so what if a few people get their noses out of joint? Rookie salaries are too high anyway.” Maybe so, but perception counts for a whole lot in this league. Standing on principle may be noble in theory, but if it costs the Dolphins free agents and goodwill with their own players, they’ll have cut off their nose in spite of their face.

There’s one other aspect to this, and it might be the most costly of all. Roger Goodell has said that yes, passing on the #1 pick would be a legal move. However, Goodell would be less than thrilled if Miami did so. In fact, he’d almost certainly be furious. All that goodwill the Dolphins have built up over the years by being good citizens of the league? Gone in an instant. Now, I don’t think Goodell would do something ridiculous with the officiating crews as a way of getting back at the Dolphins. (If David Stern were the NFL Commissioner, the officiating lineup for the next Dolphins-Jets game would probably look something like this: Phil Luckett, Dick Bavetta, Bennett Salvatore, Earl Hebner, Stevie Wonder, Joe Namath and Eric Mangini’s dad.) But any application for help from the NFL’s G3 stadium fund might be more carefully scrutinized, as might the next application for a Miami Super Bowl. Those are the two most extreme examples I can think of, but there are plenty of ways Goodell could express his displeasure with the Dolphins without attracting much media attention. And most of them would cost more than the money Miami would save by dropping a few spots in the draft.

Thankfully, there appears to be no chance that the front office will choose this path. The Dolphins have started negotiating with Jake Long, and will probably start talking to Chris Long soon, and work out a contract they can accept with one of them. They’ll have a contract in place by draft day, have a happy new franchise player in camp, and still have plenty of cap space in the years to come.

 

Thanks for the love, all!

I don't think there's any question that they're trying to trade down. The fact that there's been at least some semi-serious discussion from some columnists and fans about this is indicative of the apparent lack of trade-down opportunities.