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COMMENTARY: Odds Breakdown of the #1 Pick

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by phunwin, Apr 5, 2008.

  1. phunwin

    phunwin Happy kids are Dolfans. Luxury Box

    Odds Breakdown of the #1 Pick
    By Phil Unwin

    So, for my first official article for our new home, I thought I’d give my own thoughts on the #1 topic of conversation (by far) in Dolphin land these days: the #1 pick. Chances are, with three weeks to the NFL draft, one assumes the front office has made up their mind who they want; it’s just a matter of figuring out who that is. And until there’s either a signed contract before the draft, or someone sporting a Dolphins #1 jersey on draft day, I don’t think we’ll know for sure.

    Anyway, without further ado, my breakdown, percentage-wise, of what’s likely to happen:

    Chris Long – 45%

    Some people would think 45% is conservative. Maybe it is. Most people “in the know” project him as the #1 overall pick. True enough, Long seems to have everything this front office is likely to look for: smarts, good motor, good attitude, excellent physical skills, a fine performance track record, a clean bill of health, and good bloodlines. He has very few weaknesses; certainly less than any other player in the draft. You hear lots of talk about a player’s “ceiling”, but there is not a player in the draft with a higher floor than Chris Long. The chance of him being a bust is betwixt slim and none. Moreover, the Dolphins now have a front office with a long history of building up the front seven on defense.

    The question is: is that enough?

    The player I hear Long compared with the most seems to be Mike Vrabel. Vrabel’s a fine player and all, but if he’s a franchise player, I’ll eat my hat. I’d like to think Long is better than that, and he probably is. Still, I’d feel much better if the player he was compared to most was his old man. I could live with having a Howie Long clone at OLB/DE for the next decade.

    I don’t think the prospect of a Jason Taylor trade would have much effect on Long’s status. If Taylor stays, they’d probably just either move Joey Porter inside, or perhaps cut him entirely. (Frankly, he should have been cut after blowing up at Cam Cameron.) Obviously, if Taylor was traded, Long would step in at ROLB. And while I think it’s more likely than not that Taylor will be traded, the prospect of Long and Taylor rushing the passer in tandem has to be appealing to the front office. A pass rush like that would disguise a lot of weaknesses on defense.

    Jake Long – 30%

    Jake Long is the other guy you usually see atop mock drafts. And there’s some logic to it. After all, the Dolphins haven’t had a good offensive line in several years, and now they have a coach whose specialty is the offensive line. He’s a smart kid, very technically sound and coachable, was very good in pass protection, and an absolute beast in the running game.

    The issue with Long is that he’s not quite the pass blocker that Joe Thomas, who went #3 overall last year, is. And while Thomas was a huge factor in Cleveland’s 180 degree turnaround on offense, it’s not certain that Long can do the same. Long’s feet are adequate, but not as nimble as Thomas, or previous #1 pick Orlando Pace. As a right tackle, Long grades out very high, and would probably become a Pro Bowl regular. But at left tackle, his future is less certain. He’d certainly be adequate, but maybe not elite. This, of course, raises the question of whether a right tackle, even a really good one, is worth a #1 overall pick.

    The Dolphins could put Long at right tackle for 2008, and eventually, if they think he’s going to eclipse Vernon Carey as a left tackle, flip the two. In a worst case scenario, they end up with a bookend of tackles that would surely rank among the NFL’s top 10, and probably top 5 in time. That’s hardly a bad outcome.

    Trade – 9%

    I initially felt the chances of a trade down were about 1 in 3. However, that appears to have been optimistic on my part. There’s little question that the front office has wanted to trade out of the first overall pick, but aside from a couple rumors here and there, there doesn’t appear to be anything serious to it. Their attempts to bait the Falcons into trading up for Matt Ryan appear to have been unsuccessful, and the wild hair that Jerry Jones had for Darren McFadden appears to have passed. Still, I don’t think it can be definitively ruled out, since it’s: a. the front office’s stated preference, and b. there’s always a chance that some team may get antsy about one prospect or another and jump up to #1. For instance, I would not rule out the possibility that Kansas City would want to jump up to get Matt Ryan, or even Jake Long for that matter. Baltimore wanting Ryan is a possibility as well.

    Glenn Dorsey – 8%

    I believe that Glenn Dorsey is the best player in the draft, and I’m far from alone in this assessment. At his best, Dorsey could be a quieter version of Warren Sapp. Maybe with a little less pass rush ability and a little more run stuffing ability. My concern is more that I don’t believe the front office identifies him as a good fit for what they’re seeking. Ideally, Dorsey would be a 1-gap tackle in a 4-3 defense. Using him as a nose tackle in a 3-4 would waste some of his abilities, while putting him at 3-4 end puts a #1 overall pick in a non-premium position (see also: Jake Long at right tackle). Throw in a senior season marred by injury, and his stock takes another hit.

    Incidentally, this is part of the reason that I prefer a 4-3 defense to a 3-4; it’s easier to find players for a 4-3. And yet, I digress.

    I don’t think Dorsey will be the guy, but I don’t think he can be ruled out, either. He’s simply too good to be ignored entirely. It’s possible the Dolphins might use a base 3-4, but with enough 4-3 alignments to take advantage of Dorsey’s abilities as a 1-gap tackle. Having Jason Ferguson and Randy Starks rotating at the other tackle spot would occupy enough blockers to let Dorsey wreak havoc.

    Vernon Gholston –5%

    Gholston might be the player in the draft who most resembles Lawrence Taylor, though Dwight Freeney is probably a better comparison. Physically, Gholston is an absolute marvel. And the fact that he got three sacks against Michigan certainly gives him a point on Jake Long. (Though to be fair, I think only one of the sacks came against Long.) However, he’s not great dropping into coverage (Chris Long is already better, despite playing at OLB less than Gholston did), and was rotated in and out a lot at Ohio State, giving him the advantage of being fresh when he came into the game. He’s a hard worker, but he lacks consistency, and won’t stand up to the run as well as Chris Long. His upside is tremendous: as I said, think Lawrence Taylor if everything breaks his way. However, his floor is much lower than Long’s, as well; at worst, Gholston is a situational third down pass rusher.

    Basically, between he and Chris Long, Long is the much safer pick, but Gholston might have more upside. As an exercise in expected utility, I think Long’s floor and ceiling are greater than Gholston’s, and thus, I think Long’s a much more likely choice.

    Matt Ryan – 2%

    I refuse to seriously consider Ryan as a possibility, but he’s been mentioned enough that he at least merits his own section in this column. I don’t believe Matt Ryan merits a #1 overall pick in this, or any other draft, and I don’t believe Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland do, either. He doesn’t stack up with recent QBs who’ve gone #1, like JaMarcus Russell, Carson Palmer or even the recently validated Eli Manning. (Though in his defense, he figures to turn out better than Michael Vick.) Ryan figures to be a good enough NFL QB, but the total package isn’t at “franchise QB” levels.

    So why am I not completely ruling Ryan out, or lumping him with “The Field”? He’s a QB. And like him or not, if we took him, you’d have to assume Miami’s long-standing QB problem would be solved with either him or John Beck.

    The Field – 1%
    Darren McFadden, Sedrick Ellis, and Ryan Clady are guys whose names have been kicked around, albeit briefly. Let’s lump them here on the thought that it’s at least theoretically possible that the Dolphins might do something crazy.
     
  2. PhinsRock

    PhinsRock Premium Member Luxury Box

    Excellent write up, not much to argue about, which is probably why there aren't that many responses to this nice thread. Five stars from me though, should ultimately stir up some nice disagreements.
     
  3. AZFan

    AZFan Hopeful at Last!

    Really nice job.....a little low with 1% on Mcfadden. I think there's a better than 1% chance they may take him as BPA, or even use him for trade bait.
     
  4. phunwin

    phunwin Happy kids are Dolfans. Luxury Box

    I should have clarified this, but if they took a guy (i.e. McFadden) then traded him during the draft, I count that as a trade, not drafting McFadden. The 1% for McFadden solely reflects the possibility, IMHO, of drafting and keeping McFadden.

    And honestly, I would have rated it higher if the FO hadn't been talking up the idea of a Ricky/Ronnie backfield. That implies to me they want a tag team backfield and are very happy with what they've got.
     
  5. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Thanks Phunwin. Great breakdown.
     
  6. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I tend to agree with your percentages here. If I had to bet my next paycheck I'd bet on Chris Long being our pick but Jake Long is the next best bet. I do think we want fairly desperately to trade down but I don't see anyone out there trading up, at least not to our spot here. I think we stand a much better chance of trading down at 32 than here.
     
  7. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    Good writeup, my only disagreement is the trade percentages. Chris Long and Jake Long I can't argue with, but I'd swap Dorsey and Gholston's percentages. Gholston is the better fit for the system we're going to run, so it's logical that he'd be a favorite to be picked over Dorsey. My only other quibble centers around the trade percentages. In my opinion, there's realistically only one or two teams that are going to be willing to trade with us, which is something like 3% to 6%, as opposed to 9% (I'm guessing you believe there are 3 potential trade partners for us). Overall though, nice work handicapping what is sure to be a wild draft day.
     
  8. phunwin

    phunwin Happy kids are Dolfans. Luxury Box

    I think you're right on all counts. I think there's a very good chance we trade down at 32. And if Chad Henne is there, I think the chances of trading down with the Bears, Panthers, Bucs or some other team looking for a young QB are very, very good.
     
  9. phunwin

    phunwin Happy kids are Dolfans. Luxury Box

    Fair enough. I may have been a bit optimistic on the percentage likelihood of a trade, but I put it there just because I KNOW that's the FO's hope, so we have to assume they'd be putting more energy to that end than they otherwise might.
     
  10. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    I agree - I have to believe that Parcells, Ireland, and company are hoping to trade out of the top spot and divide that money up more equally between other players. I'm hoping we can find someone wanting to move up so that we can trade down, but I just don't know how likely that is to happen. Really, when you think about it, the number one pick at this point is almost more of a burden than a privilege.
     
  11. phunwin

    phunwin Happy kids are Dolfans. Luxury Box

    In a draft like this, without a real clear-cut top player, you're right. If there was a hot shot #1 QB prospect around, or a left tackle that was just off the charts, that would be fine. But none of these guys rates the $35M bonus that they're likely to push for. I am interested to see how contract talks play out, because there have, I believe, been years when the subsequent year's #1 pick took less money because they weren't a QB. So, it's possible that we'll see a bit of fiscal sanity restored...but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
     
  12. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Very nice article. I agree mostly with your assessments. I would add to this one other item that goes into the equation of who to pick at #1 and that is money. Now, no matter who it is, they'll get basically the same money we all know that...but the question that Tunaland has to ask themselves, as part of this process of selecting the #1 overall, is "Is he worth the money we'll pay him at that position ?"

    This is, to me, the only reason that Matt Ryan is in the mix at all instead of in the field. The QB position is a premium position and rates the higher money. But this very reason is exactly why I think Ryan will not be the choice. He just isn't, as you said, a Palmer, Eli or even Russell. He's not a franchise QB, albeit perhaps a better than average one...

    If you apply this money logic to the other picks, it makes the Long vs. Long pick a little closer, provided Tunaland thinks Jake is that missing LT not the RT...I happen to also agree that Chris will be the choice because for the money, he'll be the safest, surest pick.
     

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