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Combine Week: Who I am Watching

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by zwave21, Feb 15, 2015.

  1. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    You are right maybe he could open it up. But, he still has yet to take an NFL snap. Miller just rushed for 1K on limited carries much better than complementary. Hard to say he isn't a workhorse without opportunity wouldn't you say.

    I take those comparisons lightly, they also compared aspects to his game to Marshawn Lynch with comparisons and anyone who watched those two they are vastly different. If it were a guarantee he'd be Jamal Charles yah duh... but what guarantee can you make.

    RB isn't even a top 5 need for us. In case you missed the whole season our Interior OL/DL is still s***. We have one proven commodity at CB, as well as a need a S. Oh and let us not forget about LB and WR which could have a shake up.

    If we were in a position to make a pick like Gordon, noone is going to complain. But by picking him we are going to sacrifice a pick at a need such as WR/DT/CB. Not a smart formula for success.
     
  2. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    Wouldn't hate it but your first 3 picks will all be gone by 1st round if not early 2nd.
     
  3. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    If you have the ability to say RB isnt a need, you mine as well go ahead and say WR isnt a need as well then. I agree defense should be the round 1 pick. However, its not a 'wasted' pick if we select Gordon, I think that would make us automatic for playoffs.
     
  4. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Depends upon how you interpret the meaning of the statement. I took it to mean that as Miller gets more carries his YPC on the later carries tends to go down, which it does. You are thinking that he meant Miller's overall YPC is lower on games that he has more carries, which isn't true. I think you missed his point.
     
  5. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The bolded portion was my only contention.
     
  6. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin RIP Phinsational Luxury Box Club Member

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    Yes, when you're talking to an alien life form, you try to speak its language.

    Are you an avid lover of paint chips or something? If one ABERRANT run among 62 carries accounts for 37% of the yards, you omit the mother****** to get a better idea of what's ACTUALLY going on, and on 98.4% of Miller's carries beyond the initial 10, he averaged 3.6 yards, period.... which is not acceptable, and that's fo shou.
     
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  7. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Shall I presume you don't know the answer?
     
  8. Zounds

    Zounds New Member

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    RB is definitely a need, especially considering some of the poor situational football we played in 2014, particularly in the 4th quarter. We need a RB regardless of what you think of Lamar Miller.

    That being said, Lamar Miller is a 1B back. Hi is complimentary and should be used in a rotational backfield imo. I also dont think Melvin Gordon is that 1A back. He is a better outside runner so he can compliment Miller in that regard, but he has too many negative plays (19% of runs are no-gain or negative yards), and that's a drive killer in our offense that requires near perfection to sustain drives. I dont think he's good for Miami, and I dont even think he will be seen as te best back in the 2015 draft when we look back in 5 years.

    PS - anyone looking for the numbers on Miller as he gets more carries, look here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article4706007.html
     
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  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Not sure where BJack is getting those numbers.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14886/lamar-miller

    Carries 1-10: 154 runs for 810 yards, 4 TDs
    Carries 10+: 62 runs for 289 yards, 4 TDs

    Go back to 2013 and it looked like:

    Carries 1-10: 134 runs for 524 yards, 2 TDs
    Carries 10+: 43 runs for 185 yards, 0 TDs

    Combine the non-rookie seasons and you get:

    Carries 1-10: 4.6 Yards per Carry
    Carries 10+: 4.5 Yards per Carry
     
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  10. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And it's fun to fart around with all this stuff, but in the end you have a guy who finished, among running backs in the NFL in 2014, 4th in the league in DYAR and 4th in the league in DVOA, with the #1 success rate in the league, while making a rookie 4th-round salary.
     
  11. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    With the uncertainty with Delmas, could Landon Collins be a surprise pick?
     
  12. Zounds

    Zounds New Member

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    Barry Jackson computed his numbers the week before the 97 yard run by Miller in the season finale. The 97 yard run by Miller was his 14th carry of the game, which really skewed a small sample size of 62 carries. I'm not knocking Miller in his physical ability after 10+ carries, but it does show he was inconsistent
     
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  13. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Then again, if a sample size is small enough to be skewed by one run, then that same sample size probably shouldn't be considered big enough to determine conclusively that Miller wears down after 10 carries in a game, especially when neither his college performance, nor his pro performance in 2013, follows that pattern.

    I think rather what tends to happen is that people make a judgment about a player's ability early on, and it's very difficult to "dislodge" that judgment.

    "Lamar Miller is a small, non-durable running back who avoids contact and wears down as he carries the ball more, making him only a complementary back in the NFL."

    If that's the narrative you've told yourself all along, it's going to take a great deal of countervailing experience to "dislodge" it, regardless of whether its validity was ever reliably assessed to begin with. You're essentially going to continue to "see" that, regardless of whether it was ever true to begin with, until a mountain of evidence to the contrary can't possibly be denied.

    Then again if your initial narrative about a player is more uncertain, you can adjust it more flexibly based on evidence that's accrued. Based on how Miller's performance in 2014 compared to the other running backs in the league, I would recommend that some people re-assess their initial judgments and take a more uncertain view of his future, with room for perhaps a much higher ceiling for him than many may have originally anticipated.
     
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  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I just wanted to fist bump this paragraph because it's a really good point. I could probably do without the rest in terms of arguing about who said what, narratives, etc.
     
  15. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Take an 8 and 1/2 by 11-inch sheet of paper and place it on your computer screen, covering the paragraphs below the first one. ;)
     
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  16. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    Clearly said not a Top 5. More than likely will need to replace 2-3 WR's this year so tough to say they are on par with one another. Not wasted just would sacrifice a high round choice for WR/CB/DT. I'd much rather go one of those and look at RB rounds 2-4.
     
  17. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This isn't about Miller, it's about the team. In order to run the ball 30+ times per game the offense needs another back, preferably a more physical one. Do you think Miller can handle 25 carries per on his own, or that Thomas/Williams can bridge the gap?
     
  18. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Who said anything about 10 carries? The number given was 15, and pardon me if I was unclear but 15 is a ballpark figure. After around 15 carries Miller tends to wear down. The actual number will vary based on how much punishment he's absorbed on his carries, how he was feeling coming into the game, how deep into the game he reaches 15 carries, etc. If you watch closely you can see the signs, his acceleration and burst are noticeable diminished, his willingness to absorb contact or keep his legs driving, his willingness to stay in the game for extended periods without a rest. Nothing overly complicated, the same basic stuff you'll see from pretty much any back. The difference is that for Miller the signs begin to show up sooner than they do for many of the top backs.
     
  19. Zounds

    Zounds New Member

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    I've never made the point that Miller wears down after 10 carries a game. You don't even need stats to show that 10 carries shouldn't wear down any professional RB to the point where their production is halved, unless the RB is injured of course.

    I did however say that his production is very inconsistent after 10+ carries, and the stats do show big inconsistencies. Small samples sizes or not, averaging 2.5YPG after 10+ carries for the first 14 games is a problem, and a 97 yard run in the finale that skews the line of best fit doesn't change that he didn't produce as much in the first 14 games. I think some of that is on Miller, but I think a lot more is on the OL and the OC, and situational football.
     
  20. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    We all know where Tannephins stands on Lamar Miller, he thinks Lamar Miller is on the same level as Jamaal Charles (a guy who averages 5.5 YPC in his career) LMAO what a joke!
     
  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin RIP Phinsational Luxury Box Club Member

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    If you want the answer, get it yourself. ESPN is a public website. I know what you're trying to do, Shou, and it ain't workin.
     
  22. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think exactly the same thing Todd that Tannephins is Shounite....the dude will never change his MO...
     
  23. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    If Collins slides to us, I would be all for that.
     
  24. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    we should draft Todd Gurly
     

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