Combine Week: Who I am Watching

"Piston Honda wrote:

I'd like to see the run-pass ratio closer to 55-45, with a higher percentage of passes off of play action and/or designed to attack down the field. Assuming 32 runs per game Miller and his cohort would ideally get 12-15 carries each with a few read options mixed in.

The average in the NFL over the past two years has been 61.6% in favor of the pass, with only very slight variation among teams. The Dolphins in 2014 were also at 61.6%, the league average. 55% to 45% in favor of the pass would've leaned toward the run more than all but 7 teams in the league in 2014, and there wasn't any better performance on average among those 7 teams than there was among the other 25 in the league. The Dolphins were also among the league leaders in pass attempts off of play-action, and in fact Ryan Tannehill performed much better when there was no play-action. In other words, none of what you'd like to see has any sort of benefit that's supported objectively.

"Piston Honda wrote:

Film study is the only accurate way to decipher what's happening on a football field. That's why players, coaches, scouts at every level spend thousands of hours doing it. Once you accept that maybe you'll stop with all the laughably off the mark stat sheet assertions you're prone to making.

If you were a player, a coach, or a scout, and your posts here were based on film study, I'd certainly have a whole lot more appreciation for your point of view. Are you a player, a coach, or a scout?

"zwave21 wrote:

Would love to hear people's thoughts outside of Gordon, who will be a 1st round pick, and who wouldn't fall into major need category for our team.

Sad, that after the WR's destroyed the combine along with DL.

LB's were meh, and RB's were basic.

Let's please discuss outside of Gordon.

On NFL.com you can look at combine numbers for all of the top performances by drill over the past 10 years. Its pretty cool to see all of the different numbers players have put up through the years and how those numbers translated to a player's production in the NFL.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers#year=2015&workout=TWENTY_YARD_SHUTTLE&position=WR

I will say that one RB that stood out was Abdullah. He didn't have a strong 40 (who did?) but he was petty dominant in most other drills.

"MrClean wrote:

He did not go to Hofstra. He went to tiny Hobart College in Geneva NY. We consider Hofstra as a fairly small school itself, but the enrollment there is like 12,000. The enrollment at Hobart is only like 2300. So Hobart is to Hofstra size wise, like Hofstra is to, for example, Florida or Florida Dnd't.

Didn't we take Fede from a small New York college last year? It would be awesome to go 2-2 by drafting Marpet

"Tannephins wrote:

If you were a player, a coach, or a scout, and your posts here were based on film study, I'd certainly have a whole lot more appreciation for your point of view. Are you a player, a coach, or a scout?

Yes, yes, and no. From my experience its pretty easy to tell who has practical experience vs who doesn't. I grew up playing, coached while I could afford to live on the pitiful wages, then moved on. Most of my friends are ex-players and/or coaches and the one thing they ALL agree on is the tape don't lie. Even with the tape you only have half the info bc you need the play call to go along with it, but for outsiders film is about as close as it gets.

As far as your opinion of my opinion, I'm good either way. But let's not pretend like I'm the only one who's told you some variance of please put down the stat sheet and enter reality.

"Tannephins wrote:

The average in the NFL over the past two years has been 61.6% in favor of the pass, with only very slight variation among teams. The Dolphins in 2014 were also at 61.6%, the league average. 55% to 45% in favor of the pass would've leaned toward the run more than all but 7 teams in the league in 2014, and there wasn't any better performance on average among those 7 teams than there was among the other 25 in the league. The Dolphins were also among the league leaders in pass attempts off of play-action, and in fact Ryan Tannehill performed much better when there was no play-action. In other words, none of what you'd like to see has any sort of benefit that's supported objectively.

Lol again with the stats? I don't care what the rest of the league is doing. It's totally irrelevant. I'm talkin about the Dolphins, who play in a division where everyone plays good D and will smother your offense if you're pass happy. Watch the NE game from week 1, that's the model. And running is even more important for us late in the year bc we're a warm weather team traveling to cold weather venues. It doesnt necessarily need to be 55-45 but 62% pass ain't gonna cut it unless we have an elite QB, which we don't.

"Piston Honda wrote:

Lol again with the stats? I don't care what the rest of the league is doing. It's totally irrelevant. I'm talkin about the Dolphins, who play in a division where everyone plays good D and will smother your offense if you're pass happy. Watch the NE game from week 1, that's the model. And running is even more important for us late in the year bc we're a warm weather team traveling to cold weather venues. It doesnt necessarily need to be 55-45 but 62% pass ain't gonna cut it unless we have an elite QB, which we don't.

If you look at that game and see the run-pass ratio as the lynchpin in the win, we're likely on two different wavelengths that shall never cross paths. :)

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

It is mostly because his yards per carry tends to decrease when he gets more carries.

Last season Miller had a 5.6 ypc avg in games with 15 or more carries
while he had a 4.6 ypc avg in games with less than 15 carries

"miamiron wrote:

Last season Miller had a 5.6 ypc avg in games with 15 or more carrieswhile he had a 4.6 ypc avg in games with less than 15 carries

And obviously the validity of the statement the above refers to ("Lamar Miller's yards per carry decrease when he gets more carries") can be determined without the use of "film." Believing one needs "film" to determine the validity of that statement is about like saying one would need "film" to determine whether the Dolphins' quarterback threw more than 20 touchdown passes in 2014.

Melvin Gordons Ceiling >> Lamar Millers Ceiling

"shamegame13 wrote:

Melvin Gordons Ceiling >> Lamar Millers Ceiling

Even if that were true, I certainly hope the Dolphins won't be using a first-round pick to expand upon the "ceiling" at a position where it got among the best production in the league from its current player.

"Tannephins wrote:

Even if that were true, I certainly hope the Dolphins won't be using a first-round pick to expand upon the "ceiling" at a position where it got among the best production in the league from its current player.

Idk what you are trying to say here but Melvin Gordon would open up this offense in a way that Lamar Miller couldnt... Its that simple. Lamar Miller is a GREAT complementary RB but by no means is he a workhorse style RB.

Melvin Gordon is being compared to Jamaal Charles. Would you take Jamaal Charles in the first round if given the opportunity? Only a bozo would say no to this question.

"shamegame13 wrote:

Idk what you are trying to say here but Melvin Gordon would open up this offense in a way that Lamar Miller couldnt... Its that simple. Lamar Miller is a GREAT complementary RB but by no means is he a workhorse style RB.Melvin Gordon is being compared to Jamaal Charles. Would you take Jamaal Charles in the first round if given the opportunity? Only a bozo would say no to this question.

Well here is how Jamaal Charles compares to Lamar Miller, using the most definitive statistics known:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

If you want to spend a first-round pick to achieve that degree of improvement, when it isn't even clear at this point how good Lamar Miller is going to be long-term, that's certainly your prerogative, and I don't expect you to change your mind.

"Tannephins wrote:

If the 4.52 he ran is any indication of the kind of breakaway speed he has, it'll take nearly perfect conditions for him to bust the kind of 97-yard run Miller did, or do anything like it, in the NFL. There are linebackers in the NFL who run the same 40 times Gordon did yesterday.

Bet Borden would kill miller in the 100

"Tannephins wrote:

Well here is how Jamaal Charles compares to Lamar Miller, using the most definitive statistics known:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

If you want to spend a first-round pick to achieve that degree of improvement, when it isn't even clear at this point how good Lamar Miller is going to be long-term, that's certainly your prerogative, and I don't expect you to change your mind.

Lol you really are tryna put Lamar Miller on Jamaal Charles level.... LMAO good god man

"Tannephins wrote:

If you look at that game and see the run-pass ratio as the lynchpin in the win, we're likely on two different wavelengths that shall never cross paths. :)

The ratio in that game was 35:32, that's not gonna happen regularly but anytime it does happen you can go ahead and chalk up a W.

"shamegame13 wrote:

Lol you really are tryna put Lamar Miller on Jamaal Charles level.... LMAO good god man

Like I said, I don't expect you to change your mind. :)

"shamegame13 wrote:

Lol you really are tryna put Lamar Miller on Jamaal Charles level.... LMAO good god man

Same guy who says we had the 2nd best run game in the league last year lol.

"Piston Honda wrote:

Same guy who says we had the 2nd best run game in the league last year lol.

Actually it's this website that says it:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

Naturally everyone is free to choose how much stock they want to put in it.

"miamiron wrote:

Last season Miller had a 5.6 ypc avg in games with 15 or more carries
while he had a 4.6 ypc avg in games with less than 15 carries

He had 4 games of 15+ carries, 0 games of 20+, about 13.5 per game, which is right where you want him imo.

"Tannephins wrote:

Actually it's this website that says it:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

Naturally everyone is free to choose how much stock they want to put in it.

Its a quality vs quantity thing. We ran effectively but we couldn't stick to it bc we didn't have any depth at RB. Fix that and then we'll be on point.

"Tannephins wrote:

And obviously the validity of the statement the above refers to ("Lamar Miller's yards per carry decrease when he gets more carries") can be determined without the use of "film." Believing one needs "film" to determine the validity of that statement is about like saying one would need "film" to determine whether the Dolphins' quarterback threw more than 20 touchdown passes in 2014.

"miamiron wrote:

Last season Miller had a 5.6 ypc avg in games with 15 or more carries
while he had a 4.6 ypc avg in games with less than 15 carries

According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, Miller has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on his first 10 carries of a game this season, but is averaging only 2.5 yards per carry from his 11th carry on. The stunning drop-off in effectiveness could help explain why Miller is averaging 12.7 carries a game this season despite being clearly the best runner on Miami's roster. Miller's upside will always be capped by his limited touches, but he is still a solid RB2 in a good matchup against the Vikings this week. Sat, Dec 20, 2014 01:02:00 PM

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7408/lamar-miller

The 97 yarder against the jest happened after this and moved his numbers a lot given his low number of carries over 10. So how much weight should that run be given? Without film analysis, with just statistical analysis, that question is not even asked. Stats should be used to confirm analysis, but without that analysis there is no way to properly weigh them.

"Two Tacos wrote:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7408/lamar-millerThe 97 yarder against the jest happened after this and moved his numbers a lot given his low number of carries over 10. So how much weight should that run be given? Without film analysis, with just statistical analysis, that question is not even asked. Stats should be used to confirm analysis, but without that analysis there is no way to properly weigh them.

Regardless, there is a positive correlation (0.32) between his number of carries and his yards per carry during his career. Certainly as he's gotten more carries in a game during his career, his number of yards per carry has increased. The belief that as he carries the ball more, his performance gets worse, is false.

Moreover, one doesn't need "film" to treat the 97-yard run as an outlier. That can be done statistically.

1. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington (we let Chris Johnson run for over 100 yds on us....enough said)

2. Eric Kendricks, MLB, UCLA * (trade up if you have to in order to get him...i don't give a damn. there is your defensive captain and tackling machine)

3. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU (our CBs were trash)

4. Shane Carden, QB, ECU (yep, that's right...)

5. Rob Haverstein, OT, Wisconsin (get all the Wisconsin bulldozing linemen you can get from this point)

6. Kyle Costigan, OG, Wisconsin

7. Dallas Lewallen, OG/OT, Wisconsin

I'm not even sure this will help because i think we have a garbage head coach. But, this can be a nice foundation for the next guy.

"Tannephins wrote:

Like I said, I don't expect you to change your mind. :)

You putting Miller on the same level as Charles is a tad bit lunatic.