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Chad Pennington Limiting our Offense? Numbers say otherwise...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MonstBlitz, May 21, 2009.

  1. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No we are thinking the same way Rafael, maybe I worded incorrectly...

    I just wanted to add that there are times that strong arm QBs miss open WRs also, but not by lacking in arm strength...

    I just did not want to feel disrespectful in making this point...

    There have been many strong arm QBs that failed to complete over 57% of their passes in their career...accuracy, as you and I agree on has not consistantly materialized in strong arm QBs that have played in the NFL...

    Some like Doug Williams- 49%; Jack Kemp-49%, John Elways-57%, Bert Jones-56%, currently Russel-54%, Jeff George- 57%...to name a few...
     
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  2. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Sure I invited debate. And there is some great debate going on in this thread. Like the current discussion between Disnardo and Rafael. Does that mean I shouldn't get a little defensive when people make backhanded remarks about players? Especially one of my favorite players? Don't get me wrong, I can take it. But what's not fair about calling someone out on it?

    I was never quite as high on John Beck as some people on this board, but one thing I never begrudged any Beck fan was their right to defend him as a Miami Dolphin on our team. It's the same thing with Pennington.
     
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  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I do think it is accurate to say he limits the offense. One thing to take into consideration is that last year for Pennington was a career year. That year so far was the exception to the Pennigton rule.

    Plus saying that his arm is weak isn't nitpicking. It is pointing out an obvious flaw to his game. Nitpicking would be more pointing out that during his career he has yet put together two good seasons and generally gets hurt.

    I also do not agree with the idea that if Pennington had a stronger arm, then he would become not as intelligent.

    I also disagree with the idea that since there are stronger armed QBs who are not accurate that Pennington should not have a stronger arm.

    Pennington is a fine quarterback. He does limit some of what the offense can do. The coaches did an amazing job of putting Pennington in a position to succeed.
     
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  4. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pennington in 2008 Better at Air Yards/ Attempt than Peyton, Big Ben and others...

    Question...

    Why does a QB have to wait till a receiver is running 40-50 yards down field to throw it 70 + yards in the air???

    He generally does not, only rarely do they, if there is a busted coverage, and you hope to hit him in stride for the quick strike...

    A good research conducted by the people at Advance NFL Stats came up with Qb's and the Yards that his passes are in the air... good read...

    Does anyone venture to guess who had the highest "Air Yards per Attempt" in 2008???
    If you guess Delhomme you were right... at 4.9 AY/A

    Does anyone know what was Penny's ranking in 2008???
    If you guessed he was ranked 5th, yes 5th... at 4.4 AY/A...that was higher than Peyton, Cutler and Big Ben to name a few...

    IMO after reading some of this, Penny is the main reason we went 11-5 last year...

    LINK: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/air-yards-2008.html

    enjoy the article...

    A lot of good discussions here, good thread Monst, and I give it 5 stars...

    Not only does the stats at the Thread start show that Penny has not limited this Offense, but other stats show and lead us to believe that he has limited this Offense much less than other stronger arm QBs...
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2009
  5. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    CP and our coaching staff does an excellent job playing to Pennington's strengths. i don't want CP throwing the ball deep if it's not one of his strengths. we need to keep exploiting his strengths of throwing short accurate passes, b/c that's what wins games. Asking CP to throw the ball deep is like asking Ginn to run someone over!
     
  6. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think that by that definition every QB limits an offense. Marino limited the offense by not being good at play-action. Manning and Brady limit the offense by not being a running threat. Cutler limits the offense by throwing too many interceptions, etc. But all these guys including CP did/do some things really well which maximized other areas of the offense.

    No QB is or has ever been perfect. IMO Manning and Brady have the most complete games and they maximize most of the aspects of their offenses. I think all great QBs maximize far more areas than they limit. CP falls in that category b/c the few areas where he limits the offense are far outweighed by the areas that he maximizes.
     
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  7. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bingo...:up:
     
  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Disagree, Penny has played even better statistically speaking, the difference was he played 16 games.



    Well, it's strong enough to win with, at the end of the day that is what matters.


    That's as an odd a point of view as a Qb who can run simply is not NFL Qb material..

    :shifty:

    And we win, that is always the bottom line in the NFL.
     
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  9. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    How many wins were the result of his arm? That's not really something that you can derive.

    Well it's been an extreme example used in talks of QB's and arm strength, you either have Penny the cerebral, or you have a dumb jock with a cannon arm. I don't agree with that and have given examples of QB's that have both a strong arm and strong football IQ.

    Okay, well how many games did we lose because we couldn't stretch a defense and expand our offense? Again, it's really not something that you can pinpoint, but you can pinpoint that we don't run certain plays or have a deep game and say that it has a negative impact on our offense because defenses play us tighter. Trying to determine wins or losses based on that is pointless.

    I think some people are giving Chad the lion's share of the credit for our turnaround and neglecting to remember that it's a team game, that we had a new coaching staff in place that brought in several new faces and that we used a gimmick play that was a major part of our turnaround. We won last year with Chad at QB, but that doesn't mean that he was the biggest factor in our turnaround or that we couldn't have won with someone else who had a stronger arm. Am I happy with the job Pennington did? Yes. Do I feel that we could do better by taking advantage of our player's skills and stretching the defense? Yes. Does that mean that I want to see Chad sent packing asap? Hardly. :wink2:
     
  10. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    We covered this before in other threads, the air yards statistic is flawed and there is a reason it isn't used by credible sources. :wink2:
     
  11. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Bad example, as I pointed out on the first page of this thread, you have to look at the kind of throws that the QB is making. Montana attempted far more passes than Chad and Cutler beyond 2o yards in his splits. Fact is, Montana did stretch the field and make those throws, where Pennington just doesn't. Montana may not have had a gun, but he trusted his arm and made those throws, Chad doesn't even attempt passes that he knows he can't make.
     
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  12. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    I'd like to address this. We won a lot more games with Pennington than we ever expected to last year. No one seriously expected us to go as far as we did. I think the bigger factor in games we lost was our interior linemen going down. Also we could not hold back the Ravens defense. Any game that Pennington could have lost us honestly can be blamed on the offensive line.
     
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  13. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    A lot of those games we won with Pennington last year, where another QB may have faltered were situations where we either

    a.) Needed a scoring drive to win the game; or

    b.) Needed a long drive to run out the clock and put points on the board to put the game out of reach.

    In more occasions than not last year Pennington rose to the occasion when we were in these situations. Not since Dan Marino were fans able to have confidence that we could succeed in those situations. Pennington was calm, collected, and made the big throws when they were needed. Sure it's a team game. But you can't win in those situations without a good QB. Sure the RB is important too in those clock eating drives, but if you don't have a QB to make that 3rd down throw, then drives stall and you give the opposition another chance. It's drives like these where you can't measure a QB's effectiveness in armstrength, overall numbers, or even these crazy "splits" I keep hearing so much about. It's that W you get at the end of the game that measures a QBs effectiveness. And I didn't see Pennington limiting our offense in any of those game winning drives last season.
     
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  14. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Was Chad the QB? Yes he was, but how do you define or attribute wins directly to him? What criteria are you using to make that call? How much credit goes to Ronnie? How much to our defense? How much to the coaching staff? That's what I'm not understanding, I see alot of people saying that Chad was responsible for our turnaround as if he's the sole reason we did well. What formula are people using to make that judgment?

    The 2007 team wasn't as bad talent-wise as the record made it appear, more wins last year shouldn't have come as a big shock. When it still looked like we were going to go through a true rebuild, I figured us to have 5 wins, obviously we didn't go that route and instead brought in vets to fill out the roster. Noone expected us to make the playoffs, but how much of that is attributed to one player or was it a team effort and the moves made during the offseason?

    That's passing the blame IMO. If you were to say that the play of the OL had an effect on his play, that I could understand, but it sounds as if you are absolving him of any responsibility with that quote.

    Attributing wins and losses to a certain player is flawed, how do you accurately determine that it was the OL's fault and not the quarterback or the runningback, the linebacker or the offensive coordinator? Football is a team game, no one player is responsible for wins and losses on their own.

    The numbers don't show that, they say that Pennington's QB rating and completion % drop and his interceptions increase in the 4th quarter, and that he is a better 1st half player than 2nd half player.

    Dismiss them all you like, but they are the most accurate numbers available and NFL execs certainly don't scoff at them as "crazy numbers". There is a reason that those numbers are kept and examined, if a player is better in the beginning of a game and becomes nonexistent in the 2nd half, you bet that NFL folks are taking notice of those splits, otherwise they wouldn't be doing their job properly. If a team throws the ball more often in a certain situation or favors the run, it will be reflected in the splits.

    General stats give you a general idea of how a player performs, splits give you an in depth look at how a player performs, where he excels, where he falters, when he does well and when he does poorly. That all goes into scouting a player, NFL front offices don't look at general numbers to gameplan or rate a player, they thirst for in depth evaluation and splits are an important part of that.
     
  15. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    We wouldn't of went 11-5 without Chad.
     
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  16. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    Like2god the reason I mention the OL is by the end of the season we were short a couple starting guards. We were having problems running the ball and people had. begun to figure out the wildcat.

    With a healthy line we are better able to run the ball, better able to keep the pressure off of Chad and he makes fewer picks. Everything starts on the line and ours was banged up at the end of the season.

    Honestly if you look up the stats on Pennington last year he was definitely our mvp and he was in serious contention for league mvp. We didn't have the talent to go 11-5 last year without him.
     
  17. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think your numbers are askewed or Mis leading L2G...the Math Does not Add Up...

    You can look down to the last sentence and for my main point....if you dont want to read the in between stufff...

    First time I actually looked at the web page... I cannot see any of this information in the splits page matching these numbers for 1993 nor 1994... can you please steer me to the numbers above???

    What I do see is the following:

    1993Game Splits-Passing Splits Tab
    298 passing attemtps
    completed 28 (30%) which were for more than 20 yds...of 92???
    No completion info on charts for 31+...show me where...

    So actual completions of 9% of 20+ yds in total attempts...

    Now there is a field position chart that shows how many passes were completed in those areas, but that does not mean that they were comepleted for those amount of yards...

    1994 Game Splits- Passing Splits Tab
    493 passes attempted
    completed 40 (19%) of which were more than 20 yds... of 213???...show me where???
    Again where are the 31+ numbers???

    So actual completions was 10% of 20+ yds in total attempts...

    Please show me where anywhere in those stats show the numbers you reflect above...

    NO DISRESPECT...
    Again show me where those passes were attempted, I cannot locate them in any of the pages or tabs on that web page...

    Now Steve Young who was a better QB than Joe (and Joe was great IMO) had one of his best career years as a 49r in 1994... He completed 48 throws in of more than 20 yards...That was 10% of his total attempts that year...and we know that Penny does not have the arm that Young did...

    Did he threw those many passes??? probably, but he did not complete all of them...completing 9% of his passes for over 21 yds combined 1993-1994...

    Option 1-

    The math does not come out right... since he completed 3,289 total yards...

    Now if you said he he completed 213 passes for over 21 yards that equals to at least 4473... that is over 1000 yards more than he threw....that year...:wink2:


    In the end, In 2008, Penny of his total passes attempted (476), 8% were completed for over 20+ yards (career avg)...Joe was 9% combined in 1993-1994...

    Completion is what counts... and Penny (2008) was just about the same as Joe (1993-1994)....
     
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  18. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    You know what, you're right about the numbers being incorrect. For Montana I was using the "Pass Attempts" instead of "By Pass Play" which ESPN doesn't display for Montana or Young. Although the splits that I posted for Pennington and Cutler are absolutely correct. I'll have to do a little digging to see which site has the correct figures for Montana.

    Good catch :hi5:
     
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  19. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    weak arm? what does that mean? what constitutes a deep pass?

    1) how far can he accurately throw the ball? what is the the average distance amongst NFL starters to accurately throw the ball?

    2) when Pennington was drafted (by Parcells), did he have a deep pass? if so, what happened to it? was it an injury four years ago?
    has his shoulder healed? yes.

    3) does he still have a weak pass? did his arm improve improve in 2008? has his throwing arm improved in the off season? probably.


    Chad the Greater can get the ball down field consistently (35-40 yards) when he has enough time to throw & is playing with an uninjured shoulder. Pennington has no problem with the 20 yard plus pass.

    appropriate question to be asked:

    1) How often do you need to go deep & how deep do you need to throw to be effective in the NFL?

    2) how important is team management & passing accuracy to the game?

    3) will the Pennington Renaissance continue or burn out in 2009?


    as we go into the 09 season he remains our MVP

    I believe this guy can lead us to a SuperBowl in 2010. this season will reveal everything. patience.
     
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  20. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    I agree that everything starts with the OL, but Thomas was lost at the very beginning of the year and his ability to contribute at an equal or greater level than the folks who replaced him is still in question. Smiley was the only real loss along the OL, although Satele was playing with an injury that may have limited him. Point being, other than Smiley we really didn't lose any major contributors at G.

    With that said, we weren't able to run the ball at all prior to the Wildcat when Smiley was healthy, the ability to show something new to defenses week after week was what pushed our YPC higher than it should have been if we were running a conventional run game and it allowed our offense to score points. I'd like to find exact numbers on how many yards we gained in a conventional offense (rushing) versus the wildcat in order to get an accurate idea of how the OL played without the gimmicky offense. Looking at sacks allowed we were middle of the pack, most of those were prior to Smiley's injury (21 of 24), but that doesn't account for hurries.

    It depends on who you replace him with, but that's a dead end argument because it isn't something that you can test. It would be the Cutler vs Penny argument all over again, which is rather pointless.

    And I disagree that he was our MVP, one could easily make the case that Porter or Ronnie were our MVP's. Porter actually came up very big in the final minutes of games to end opponents drives, he could easily have been our MVP. Ronnie is what made the wildcat work, one could argue that he was more valuable.

    My question is still "How do you attribute wins and losses to a particular player?". That's for anyone to answer, I'd really like to hear how people come to their conclusions on it.
     
  21. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    L2G I repsect you as a great poster and person. You without my doubt have more experience in evaluating talent and I really have never verified anything you have posted before, taking your word for it.

    With this information, being so old, I know that there is a lot of data that is not given, just about anywhere, so I verified...

    I hope you have not taken any offense on my prior posts...
    :no:
     
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  22. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Not at all brother, I'm glad you caught it, I want the conversation to be on the level in all aspects. It was a mistake on my part, I did a quick search and didn't realize that the numbers weren't the ones pertaining to the debate, I appreciate you pointing it out. :up:
     
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  23. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Couldn't agree more. IMO, this debate will be answered in full this season. If Pennington continues his strong play, remains healthy, and leads us to the playoffs again (or maybe even close) we'll know what kind of QB he is. We'll know if he was just great veteran leadership who filled the QB roll admirably for a couple of season or if he is something more than that. A QB we can build our team around and make a superbowl push during the final 2 - 4 years of Pennington's career. Either way with his performance in 2008, IMO he has proven he can effectively lead an offense better than at least 2/3 of the active QBs in the NFL today.
     
  24. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks, I am working on the WC yards by game and will have that data later...
     
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  25. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    You and I both agree on a few areas. We both agree that we had problems rushing the ball in our conventional offense. That we used the Wildcat and other plays to get mismatches. I also agree that Porter has a credible claim to being team MVP. Ronnie's play in the wildcat especially the NE game were pivotal but he could not keep up his 5 TD spree every game. I think over the course of the entire season Joey and Chad were probably our most vital players.

    As for Chad Pennington I think you seriously underestimate how good he was for us. Last time we went 11-5 was in 2001 under Jay Fiedler. It's the first time we've won the division since 2000. In 2001-2001 we had extremely strong defenses that carried the team. That was not the case last year. Our defense was good but not dominating. Our pass defense in particular was atrocious. We played smart, efficient ball. Pennington marched the ball down the field in long, time eating drives. He was cool under pressure, accurate and minimized turnovers. Our turnover ratio was insanely good last year and one of the keys to our success. In fact it was a league best +17. Chad had 19 td's and only 7 ints were amazing.

    You look at Chad and see what he can't do. You don't see many big plays or highlight reel stuff. You don't see any omg moments. What you do see is accuracy and consistency. He puts up solid numbers game after game. He quietly shepherds his team to victory. He's not flashy and because of that I think you undervalue him. What he does, he does well.

    I look at his passer rating, his number of completions, his td to int ratio, yard thrown and I see the best QB we've had since Marino. Without Chad Pennington I don't see us going 11-5 last year with the talent on our roster. I honestly believe that Luke McCown, Chad Henne and John Beck (especially Beck) did not have the ability to carry the team the way Pennington. I just can't see how you devalue his accomplishments for us last year.
     
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  26. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    [​IMG]
     
  27. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Why create a thread to debate whether or not Chad Pennington limits our offense...and then proceed to treat everyone who nods in the affirmative as though we "devalue his accomplishments from last year"? I dont get this attitude at all. Not one person has devalued his accomplishments...not one. In fact, most of us have gone out of our way to state this SEVERAL FREAKIN TIMES.

    You didnt create a thread...."Lets all count the ways Chad Pennington prevented us from winning the Super Bowl last season".

    If you want a thread for everyone to stand around and come up with love poems for how we feel about Chad Pennington and what he has done for the Miami Dolphins...just say so!!!
     
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  28. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I politely disagree with you on L2G's argument. He does not undervalue what Chad Pennington does at all. Just because he recognizes Chad Pennington's limitations, and how those limitations impede certain aspects of our play book, it doesnt mean at all that he doesnt infact greatly appreciate Chad Pennington's strengths at QB. In fact, I suggest you spend some time and actually read his and others arguments, instead of cherry picking the ones where he defends the arm strength argument. Those replies do not make up for the totality of what he or anyone else has had to say on the issue.

    If there werent certain limitations, then why do Dolphins coaches recognize that fact that Ted Ginns numbers as he does in the deep game will go up once Chad Henne starts in 2010. If you read any of the comments made by the coaching staff, they havent been shy at all about talking about Henne's ability to open up the playbook.

    Chad's a great QB. No doubt. We all recognize that. Ya'll dwell way to much on anyone giving any type of criticism what so ever to Chad Pennington.
     
  29. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    l2g
    Im curious, i see that you are saying that we could of went 11-5 without Chad, depending on who we will replace him, correct?

    Im wondering, who do you have in mind, what player we could of gotten at the time (week 1 of preseason) that would of helped us go 11-5 not named Chad Pennington?
     
  30. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I created a thread to show what I feel is evidence that Chad Pennington did not limit our offense on an overall level. The debate is welcomed, of course. Some people I agree with, some people I don't. Isn't that how things work around here? Did something change? I didn't get the memo. :confused2::confused1:

    Not quite sure what your problem is with this. And to your other point, IMO, some have devalued Chad's contributions last season. Some consistently go out of their way to mention Chad's arm strength, or lack thereof, with backhanded remarks. And that's alright. I just don't agree with it. Fair enough?
     
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  31. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Maybe Another one of Those Mis-Leading Stats on Cutler?

    L2G, maybe this one is not clearly defined...

    I agree ther splits for Cutler is correct...

    But how many of those passes that Cutler threw had to do with the 9 games that Denver was behind at the start of the 3rd or 4th quarter???

    I mean Denver lost 8 games out 9 when they were behind... the one they won, they scored 21 points in the 4th....

    How many of those passes were influenced when Denver was trying to play catch up????

    Now Miami was behind in the beginning of the 4th in 4 games, they lost those 4...

    Probably Cutler's stats had a lot to do with those 5 more games they were behind...don't you think???
     
  32. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Open debate is just fine...but I just completely disagree that anyone has devalued Chad's contribution, when I have seen the exact opposite. I havent seen anyone address some extremely important issues apart from listing stats....such as 3rd down conversion rates. Why is it that Miami was among the bottom feeders when it came to 3rd and long situations? It keeps coming back to Chad cant throw the bomb, and its soo much more than that. It is Chad's lack of an arm that is one of the biggest obstacles this team faces in 3rd and long situations...
     
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  33. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    Honestly I don't see Chad's arm strength last year as a problem. I was on NFL Network's website looking at Ginn's highlights and I saw Chad him 30-40 yards out pretty easily. Really how much stronger does a QB have to be?
     
  34. PerfectTeam

    PerfectTeam Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well to me its not so much how far he can throw the ball but how fast can he get the ball there too. Chad doesn't have the rocket arm of Jay Cutler but he plays within himself well which is all I really want.
     
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  35. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I guess it all depends on what your definition of devaluing a contribution is. The fact that there are many posters who will go out of their way to mention Chad's "weak arm" any chance they get is, IMO, devaluing his contribution. Another point worth making is last year around this time you couldn't log into Phins.com without seeing a pro John Beck or Chad Henne thread. This year, after Chad Pennington plays a major role in guiding us to an AFC East championship rarely do we see a pro Chad thread. Sure they exist, but nowhere near the frequency that we used to see pro Henne and especially pro Beck threads. Two QBs who at that point had done nothing of substance for our Dolphins. That, IMO, is another example of devaluing Chad's contribution.

    And I'll admit that the Dolphins struggled on 3rd down conversions last year. But you also have to factor in that we were much better in terms of first downs last year. That means Chad did a pretty good job of keeping us out of nasty third down situations. Also, I remember a certain 3 and 13 situation where Chad threw a beautiful pass to Ricky Williams to silence a raucus Denver crowd. Granted it was one pass, but it was a very important one, which goes back to my point of Chad being clutch when it counts.
     
  36. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    Try as I might, I can't put a name on those folks.. can you... you keep bringing them up.. just who are they, and where in this thread are they posting? From where I sit, you are treating all of us who disagree with you like WE are the ones doing this disservice.. who are they?
     
  37. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I never said that, and it's certainly not the case. And I'm not looking to single anyone out. I could pour through threads and name a couple of names, but what would that accomplish? It's more of a feeling I've gained that Chad is being devaluated. A sense I've gotten from reading threads ever since he has signed. It just seems some folks are quicker to acknowledge his flaws than to give him credit for all he's accomplished. Definitely not a blanket statement, just something I've noticed.
     
  38. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    That statement has some truth to it, but it does not hold true in this thread. Remember.. you are "hearing" this stuff because of how you framed the thread title. If it had said "Chad may limit our offense but I don't care" my guess is nearly everyone that has debated with you here, would agree with you then. You can't get upset with something YOU brought about.
     
  39. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Whose upset? Not me.

    Why would I title a thread "Chad Pennington may limit our offense..." when I don't agree with the statement? The only thing I've conceded is that it's true he doesn't have the strongest arm and he may be less accurate on longer throws. But since our offense has performed better than it has in nearly a decade, I don't think he limits our offense overall i.e. Chad limits our offense in the context of certain plays but he doesn't limit our offense overall.
     
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  40. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I understand where you are coming from...and I do agree that Chad Pennington is an under rated QB. But, it remains to be seen if he can A) stay healthy another full season and B) Can he really take our offense to the next level.

    Our offense did well last year, to an extent. We were rated 12th overall, 10th in passing. Bottom of the league in 3rd down conversion @ 37% which might I add is also the same we had in 2007.

    Chad Pennington has never led a team to better than 12th overall in team offense, once in 2004 the Jets were 12th and we were last season. His other seasons were much less effective in offensive team rankings. I feel this is a strong indicator of some of his limitations, as a QB with a stronger arm, forces teams to adjust and not cheat, opening up the field. This as well impacts your running game...

    Can you consistantly win in the playoffs with Chad Pennington? If your defense is stellar and you have a great oline and an excellent running game. Can he win a Super Bowl? Sure...but alot has to go right, IMO. Setting the record for least penalties last season was great, but dont count on it happening again.

    Compared to the rest of the QB's we have had, Chad is lightyears better, but thats a little like comparing a steak at Shula's and a steak at Ponderosa. Can Chad make us better than 12th in the league in total offense. Can he improve on our 3rd down percentage of 37%? When looking at the QB situation, you strive to see if you can balance productivity and value. We could have traded for Jay Cutler, but the value wasnt there, given the draft picks and having to re sign him to a large contract. Can we upgrade Chad Pennington, or do even need to. My argument, Chad's play notwithstanding, is yes and yes. We can upgrade him with Chad Henne when he is ready, and we SHOULD upgrade him with Chad Henne when he is ready. My own personal inclination is that Chad Henne is ready now. I believe he has had a full year to digest the offense, and his manner in the huddle is relfective of the leader we need at QB, just like Chad Pennington. Basically, I see him being slightly less accurate with a few more turnovers. Not enough to off set the gain he gives us. Now, thats not an indictment of Chad Pennington, but it is predicated solely on Chad's lack of an arm. He simply cannot make the throws needed to consistently make us a top ten offense, IMO. And those throws are the third and longs, second and longs, and if we are behind with a limited time window. The deep passing game is icing on top...and does not concern me as much as his inability to hit the other needed passes.
     

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