CFB 2008 review and the playoff argument

There was a decent discussion on another thread about 2010 NC…another poster made some good points so I wanted to go back and look at the whole season of CFB…now I know Gator fans will think there is no argument who is the best team in the country…but the NC is supposed to be about the whole season…while I do agree that the Gators were the best team at the end of the year, other teams think they have legitimate arguments…so I wanted to look again at the 2008 CFB season….since my Canes do not have a dog in the hunt, this is from a 40,000 ft. point of view and not meant to argue/discuss one team or another specifically although there are some general observations…..but it this post IS meant to present some points that lend credence to a playoff…..I looked at 6 teams..

Record:
Utah 13-0
Florida 13-1
USC 12-1
Texas 12-1
Boise State 12-1
Oklahoma 12-2
Pretty much takes OU out of the argument.

Average opponent’s strength of schedule per Sagarin rankings:
USC 26.9
Florida 33.4
Oklahoma 39.8
Texas 41.8
Utah 63.7
Boise State 90.2
Obviously Boise State played a lousy overall schedule….this hurts the Utah NC argument significantly also.

Opponents winning percentage
Oklahoma 61.9
Texas 61.1
Florida 59.9
Utah 53.3
USC 51.8
Boise State 47.6
OU/Texas/Florida stand significantly above the rest and USC opponents were only slightly above .500, Utah not much better and Boise State played a losing schedule……..

Overall margin of victory:
Florida 30.7
USC 28.5
Oklahoma 26.9
Boise State 25.8
Texas 22.8
Utah 19.7
Utah’s argument is getting weaker and weaker……Boise States MOV is not real impressive considering they played a losing schedule.

The raw numbers would tend to indicate for the entire season that the “right” NC game WAS OU-Florida….I would rank the teams 1. Florida 2. Texas 3. USC 4. Utah 5 OU 6 Boise State…how anyone would rank them is based on their personal bias per team and per your personal values on SOS vs. wins vs. margin…..

When you look a little closer there are some interesting things to see…first of all the computer part of the BCS rankings gives a bit more “credit” for a November win versus an earlier win…..Florida had 7 games before 11-1…OU had 8 and Texas had 8. As much as I can calculate and understand the difference would be about .025…now if OU had played 1 more game BEFORE 11-1 it might and I stress might have been enough to put Texas in the BCS game…how stupid is that………….

When you throw out the joke games…Utah-Weber, UF-Citadel and OU Chattanooga…the only team’s that have SOS over 100 on their respective schedule, although Weber did win 10 games (Citadel was 4-8 and Chattanooga was 0-11 AND managed those records while playing terrible schedules)…..it becomes obvious that UF had the hardest schedule but the margin of victory goes down to 27.

Those are the numbers…the arbitrary part is when you look at the records and losses versus “good” teams. Given the numbers and the arbitrary…. here is what I see:

UF won big played a very tough schedule on paper (I personally believe the SEC is given too many credit this year), was 4-1 versus BCS top 25 finishers…lost at home by 1 to the #14 team. Solid choice as a #1 and their position can definitely be defended..

USC had an average schedule but won by a bigger margin than any of the others after the “joke” games are factored out. Was 3-1 versus the BCS top 25. Lost by 6 on the road to the #18 BCS team. An argument can be made because their opponents SOS is the rivals UF but the opponents winning % is only 3rd.. Florida had opponents that played around the same SOS…but UF opponents won more of their games. Still an argument can be made for a road loss versus a home loss.

OU..Lost 2 games…no argument can be made. Was 5-2 versus BCS top 25 teams….but would have been included in a playoff.

Boise State…lousy opponents SOS…and even then those teams lost more than they won…way way over rated season based on the numbers…1-1 versus BCS top 25.

Utah 4-0 versus BCS top 25 teams…average opponents and even then those opponents did not exactly blow that average schedule away, and Utah did not have a huge margin of victory………BUT…they did win every game and was 4-0 against quality competition.

The Texas argument….4-1 versus BCS top 25 teams….and if a very weak UTEP is factored out (as well as UF-Citadel) then their opponents SOS is close to UF’s, their opponents winning percentage is higher than UF…and their margins of victory are very comparable to UF….Their 4-1 vs. BCS is more impressive than UF to me personally because they went 3-1 in 4 straight games (in the RS) vs. teams than ended up in the BCS top 25 with that loss being by 6 on the road at night on the last play of the game, and the last game in the gauntlet of a stretch of games. When you look at the numbers and deviations it is also very close to UF…..both numbers and the human factor when looking at the losses make this the team with the strongest argument IMHO.

So…just too much time on my hands tonight and if this is not the best season to be offered as evidence for a playoff I do not know what is. A couple UF fans have mistaken that I believe other teams have an argument for my belief that UF does not deserve the NC…The Gators are a good representative as any and have just as good of argument…but there is room for debate…..IMHO

 

Mike...first of all you are right, I did generalize and that is wrong of me so for those Gator fans that do indeed see things without jaundiced eyes I apologize....

I have an extreme hatred of Urban Meyer (Mike knows why and I think would agree my reasons are pretty valid), so I inherently have a built in bias against ANY team he coaches despite my my youth being spent watching and following the Gators.

I do not know if I agree or disagree with Florida being most deserving...I think there are arguments for Utah and Texas in particular...I do think that Florida has as good of argument as either Texas or Utah, but not necessarily a better argument.....BUT with that said I do think Florida was the best team at the end of the year...I also must admit my extreme bias for any evaluation that does not take into account every game for the whole year...despite my not "knowing" much or having a real strong opinion on any of the three in particular...I DO have an extremely strong opinion that Texas got the royal screwing by not being in the NC game...and I have no ties to Texas nor am I a fan.

 

mo...not real sure what you mean...but Meyer did something in my presence 3 feet away from me that I WILL NEVER be OK with and showed me what kind of person he is. IT IS PERSONAL..and if it happened to anyone else on here I would 99.9% guarantee that despite any man love for Meyer you would feel the same way about him...it is about a lot more than football....

I really do not wish to discuss the specifics because without it happening to you or someone you love then the claims of internet anonimity come into play and no one here knows me personally, and the situation was so bizarre that no one would believe it, my credibility would be questioned, and it would cause a massive discussion simply and more Urban man love to spew...that I cannot take, because it was sooooo unbelievable.

It has NOTHING to do with football.

 

So true...truth be told any "god fearin Cane fan" would dream of the success UF has had on the field recently. There is certainly a degree of "jealousy" and glass houses that will be permeated when a program is successful like UF has been when fans of another school is mired in mediocrity as Canes fans are currently. As much as it pains me to say, I would live to be in UF's shoes right now from a football fan and team perspective.

But again my hatred is personal and directed at Meyer and not the University, it's students, faculty, the city, or it's football team...it is a great team, quality students, a very nice city. Football is great and fun to argue about, meet people on this site and get to know each other a bit...but some things transcend football and I will leave it at that..........