Now the dust is starting to settle on the draft, I want to look back at the last 2 drafts with a view to what is statistically relevant to building a winning team. Firstly I will mainly be looking at passing for the following reasons. 1) Team passing offence, team passing defense, and the differential between passing offence and defense are correlated to winning. I have collected team data from 2006 to 2016. Because passer rating has steadily been increasing in that span I adjusted the passer rating to the long term trend to be able to properly compare older teams to more recent teams. Long term trend average PR = 88.0 Correlation of team PR made to win%: 0.67 Standard deviation: 12.04 Line of best fit: 68 = 0 wins; 108 = 16 wins; +2.5 = +1 win Correlation of team PR allowed to win%: -0.53 Standard deviation: 9.01 Line of best fit: 102 = 0 wins, 78 = 16 wins; -1.5 = +1 win Correlation of PR differential to win%: 0.80 Standard deviation: 16.07 Line of best fit: -32 = 0 wins; +32 = 16 wins; +4 = +1 win So the most important aspect of improving your statistical chances of winning games is to improve your PR differential, with improving your passing PR being more important than improving your PR defense. 2) Rushing and rushing defense is not statistically tied to w/l%. A long discussion is here https://thephins.com/threads/rt17-and-the-run-game.88889/ . The TL;DR version is that teams pass to gain yards and score points; teams rush to get opposing defenses to commit more defenders to the run and open up the pass, control the clock, control field position, set up misdirection plays as well as gain yards and score points. So while rushing is important to the game of football the data gets messy because teams use rushing for a wider variety of reasons than simply scoring points. 3) What effect does a 'great' unit have? I will define great as being more than 1 standard deviation or more than average. My expectation was that if you built a great unit you would strengthen the other side of the ball. PR efficiency is strongly affected by team win probability, as shown on this page http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/splits.htm. 0-19% win probability: 64.8 PR 20-39% win probability: 73.2 40-59% win probability: 89.5 60-79% win probability: 99.8 80-99% win probability: 117.9 So if you have a great unit the other side of the ball will benefit because they are playing a higher % of their games with a good win probability ad the opponents are playing a higher percentage of their game time in the low win% Offenses +1 SD Average PR made: 106.9 Average PR allowed: 87.7 Average win% 68.7% Defenses +1 SD Average PR made: 88.8 Average PR allowed: 74.9 Average win%: 63.7% Interesting the other side of the ball for the great units statistically ended up being average. Maybe this is because of the effects of salary cap resource allocation cancelling out the win probability effects. 4) So I looked at 'sucky' units as well, with "sucky" defined as being one standard deviation or worse then average Defenses -1 SD Average PR made: 87.4 Average PR allowed: 101.9 Average win %: 35.5% Offenses - SD Average PR made: 70.0 Average PR allowed: 92.3 Average win% 28.7% So of the 4 units being great or sucky on one side of the ball didn't have a benefit to the other side of the ball in 3 of the 4 situations, which was contrary to my expectations.. But being sucky on PR offense hurts your PR defense. So in conclusion is that the best way to build a winning team is to concentrate on passing offense first, as being bad there hurts you more and being good gives you more benefits, and then to look at building your defense.