1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Brady in Miami...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Dec 5, 2018.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    Apr 22, 2014
    "Why do Patriots play so poorly in Miami? Tom Brady offers his theory"

    "Miami Is Tom Brady’s Personal House of Horrors"

    "Even the greatest of the great have places where their powers hold no sway. Superman has Krypton, Napoleon had Russia in the winter, and Michael Jordanhas the fitting room.

    For Tom Brady, that place is Miami, Florida. Against the other 30 teams in the league, Brady is 85-32 on the road in the regular season. In Miami, he is 7-9, giving him more losses in Miami than anywhere except New England. Hell, Brady has nine losses in 16 Miami games and 19 losses in 132 home games. Brady has thrown 15 interceptions in Miami, which is more than he’s thrown in any season of his career. No matter how destitute the Dolphins are or how unbeatable the Pats seem, a trip to Miami is the most dangerous thing for the team outside of a visit from Bernard Karmell Pollard...

    If the Patriots do fall to the Dolphins on Sunday, it could have serious repercussions for their season. Kansas City leads the AFC at 10-2, and New England is currently tied with the Houston Texans at 9-3 but holds the head-to-head tiebreaker for the second overall seed in the AFC. A loss to the Dolphins opens the door for the Texans (and maybe even the 7-4-1 Steelers, who face the Raiders this week and the Patriots in Week 15) to swipe a top-two seed and a first-round bye. The importance of earning the bye in the Belichick-Brady run cannot be overstated: The Patriots have secured a bye for the last eight consecutive years, which is a major reason they have made the AFC championship game each of the last seven years. (Seven. Consecutive. Years.) If the Pats beat the Dolphins, they have an 79 percent chance of getting one of the top two seeds and a bye, but if they lose that number drops to 45 percent, according to the New York Times playoff calculator.

    Even if New England secures the second seed, losing home-field advantage to Kansas City could swing this season’s Super Bowl. New England is currently a game behind Kansas City for home-field advantage in the AFC (though the Patriots hold the head-to-head tiebreaker), and a loss Sunday could put the no. 1 seed out of reach. A win against Miami will give them a 2-in-5 chance for the no. 1 seed, but a loss will drop them to 1-in-10. That’s a huge deal, because home-field advantage has been the Patriots’ secret Super Bowl sauce. Tom Brady is 19-3 at home in the playoffs but 3-4 on the road. In the seven years the Patriots have earned the 1-seed, they’ve made the Super Bowl six times. But when they don’t earn the 1-seed, things can go awry."

    All this hype about Miami and the Pats doesn't bode well for us...
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
    danmarino likes this.
  2. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    Apr 22, 2014
    FOXBORO - Bill Belichick would tell you he's not in the excuse-making business so any attempt to get him to talk about the heat and humidity the Patriots will face in Miami this weekend will get about the same response he offered Wednesday.

    "I don't know," he said when asked if Miami's humidity could be simulated this week. "Look, it is what it is out there. So, whatever it is, it is."

    The Patriots, notably, were practicing outside during Wednesday's media availability portion of practice. In the past, when expecting to go to work in drastically warmer temperatures, they've headed inside to the Empower Field House. There's still time for that as the Patriots will practice Thursday and Friday this week.

    "Bill would say, 'Put all your stuff on, we're gonna be in the bubble,' " Rob Ninkovich said on this week's episode of the Ex-Pats Podcast. "And they've got the heat on in there. But it doesn't work. Doesn't work. You can only get the bubble to 77."

    At the moment, the forecast in Miami is calling for temperatures in the 80s and scattered thunderstorms. It was 35 degrees in Foxboro during Wednesday's practice.

    Via NBCSPORTS Boston:


    "Eighty-two degrees? Coming from [the 30s]? You better believe they're going to be in the bubble," Jerod Mayo told Patriots Insider Tom E. Curran on Quick Slants the Podcast."They're going to be in the bubble...It's always tough. You're coming from 30 degrees to 90 degrees. It's a huge shift."

    The reality is the heat matters. The Patriots will be able to wear their normal road white jerseys on Sunday, which could help the team manage the effects of being closer to the equator, but it's still an issue without much of a solution.

    "Next week is going to be a good test," Ninkovich said. "I love it. Tale of two teams: home and away. Home games, [the Patriots are] undefeated. Away team, they don't bring the energy.

    "In Miami, they gotta bring it. There's gonna be enough Patriots fans there because every year we were down there and you look around there's so much blue, white and red and it's like, 'OK this is like a home game.'

    "Then you're sitting there on the bench sweating in the blazing sun, sucking down oxygen because you can't breathe, taking off your chest clips so you can open your lungs up, it's tough. You're not used to it."

    The Dolphins are 5-1 at home this year, versus 1-5 on the road. Against the Patriots in Tom Brady's career, Dolphins home-road splits haven't been quite that drastic, but they've owned the series when in Miami late in the season.

    Tom Brady is 7-9 on the road against the Dolphins as a starter and 1-5 in Miami in December. Those five December losses in Miami account almost all of Brady's December losses on the road in his career. He has seven total.

    This chart shows those games in Miami in the Brady/Belichick Era (Brady was hurt in 2008), including the teams' records following the game and the game-time temperature.


    Brady's individual numbers have suffered in Miami in December as well. His 62.6 completion percentage for the month of December over his career drops to 59 percent when in Miami in December. His career December rating of 92.3 is vastly superior to his 73.3 rating in Miami in December. Brady has an average of 2.5 touchdowns thrown for every pick in his career in December. In Miami? His December touchdown-to-interception ratio is 9-to-10.

    "You're not used to it," Ninkovich said. "I'm telling you, you can sit in a sauna and put a stair-stepper in there, do whatever you want. You're not going to get the humidity and the feel of when you're down there. It's like the sun is closer to you because it is.""

    And then from Brady:

    "Patriots quarterback Tom Brady addressed his team's struggles in Miami on Monday night during an interview with Westwood One's Jim Gray.

    “It’s been a challenging environment," Brady said. "I think the climate plays some role and they always seem to play well when they play us down there.

    "We are not going to get beat by the weather. We’re going to get beat by the Dolphins. That is what we realize. We’re going up against a good opponent that plays us very well at home. We play them very well at home. It is just one of those series where it is kind of like that."

    The Dolphins hardly are a Super Bowl contender at 6-6. But they're 5-1 at home this season, with their lone loss coming in Week 7 to the Detroit Lions, who beat the Patriots in Week 3.

    And considering New England has won in Miami just once since 2012 -- a 35-14 victory in Week 17 of the 2016 season -- Brady and Co. are taking the matchup very seriously.

    "We have to have a great week of preparation and go down there and try and play a great game against a team that has really hung in there -- 6-6," Brady said. "They’ve battled. They have had some injuries. We’re 9-3, but if we win it is a lot of upside for us."

    In case they need a little extra motivation: It's a "hat and T-shirt" game for the Patriots, who can clinch their 10th consecutive AFC East crown with a win at Hard Rock Stadium."
    djphinfan and danmarino like this.
  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    LOL @ "personal house of horrors"! We should all be so lucky. There are Brady's career numbers at JRS, which happens to be exactly 16 games:

    4003 yards
    30 TD
    15 INT
    90.7 rating
    34 sacks
    aesop, resnor and danmarino like this.
  4. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Sep 4, 2014

    It's all relative. Those are very average numbers. For Brady, they are pretty bad.
    bigballa2102 and texanphinatic like this.
  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Well, relative to the quarterbacks of the Miami Dolphins, they're stellar. And all my opinions originate at that spot.
  6. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    Dec 2, 2007
    Man, the Patriots like to declare themselves the underdogs. Must be part of the mental prep work they do, but Miami is the one spot where they do have some issues. Which is remarkable given the talent at QB they have faced over the years.

    The truth, of course, is that this is a game they should win 80% of the time against a depleted Miami roster. Let's hope Sunday falls into that 20% range instead. If we can't get into the playoffs, let alone win the division, damaging the Pats chances of getting to another Super Bowl will be a warm and fuzzy for me.
    bigballa2102 and resnor like this.
  7. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    Dec 9, 2007
    That last part about looking around the stadium and seeing a sea of blue jerseys making them feeling like a home game made me throw up in my mouth a little!

    That in its self should be enough to piss off every single Miami fan! Not in our house not in our house!!!
    resnor and danmarino like this.
  8. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Dec 20, 2007
    Unfortunately this fanbase has been beaten down so much they don’t have that type of fortitude.
    resnor and danmarino like this.
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah, Brady's career 2017-adjusted rating where you weight by number of passing attempts each year is 100.39 compared to the league average of 86.9 in 2017. So he's 13.5 passer rating points above league average for his career.

    At Miami over those 16 games he's averaged 6.15 passer rating points above league average, meaning that he's 7.35 passer rating points worse than normal when playing at Miami. However, those 16 games are really broken up into 3 parts: 2001-2006 where he was -4.27 below league average, 2007-2011 where he was 38.63 above league average, and 2012-2017 where he's been -5.08 below league average. The recent trend is good for us however you slice it.

    Just imagine if we win this game and we're back in the playoff hunt LOLOL.
  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    Nov 29, 2007
    I don’t see much enthusiasm in the fanbase about our prospects of winning the game.

    Early in the season when we were 3-0 there were like 10 new threads a day in the week leading up to the game. This week I don’t think we’ve had 5 new threads total in the mains yet.

    Most people, including Miami fans, are taking the view that it will be very unlikely for the phins to win this one and even if we win it we won’t be a genuine WC contender by the end of the season.
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    Apr 22, 2014
    I'm not sure there can be much enthusiasm about the prospect of beating any good team this year. Nor, at this point, is there much to be said with new threads, unless it's draft talk etc. I think we've reached the point where we just have to sit tight and take each game as it comes and see what happens.

    That being the case though, I think there's something to be said for it. With all the injuries and defeats, this point in the season gives us a chance to see how players respond, to see if Gase can finally adjust, and whether the team trends up or down in the back end of 2018.
    djphinfan and danmarino like this.

Share This Page