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Brady for MVP?

Discussion in 'AFC East Rivals' started by clrockny24, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. clrockny24

    clrockny24 New Member

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    So I’d like to get a dolphins fan’s opinion on this. It has been something that has been on my mind for years, but does Tom Brady really deserve all these MVP considerations? I know this year specifically, he has had injuries on the offensive line, a defense that was pretty bad to start the season. People also look at the fact that he is doing all of this at age 40.

    I think voters lose sight of what “valuable” means. If you took Russell Wilson off the Seahawks, Jared Goff off the Rams, Carson Wentz off the Eagles, Those teams would not be as good. You are also seeing this now with the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I think if you took Tom Brady off the Patriots, I don’t think they’d be that much worse.

    There have also been examples in recent years where we have seen the team look fine without Brady. In 2008 he went down, Matt Cassel took over and they looked fine. Last year, Jimmy Garrapolo took over when Brady was suspended and looked fine.

    I’m standing by this opinion. People can say 2008 was a very long time ago in football years, and that the game has changed so much. Patriots look the same to me. They can say the games that Garraopolo played were too small of a sample size to really tell, but can anyone confidently say that if Brady went down tomorrow that Hoyer wouldn’t come in and lead them to the super bowl? He isn’t as good of a QB obviously, but they would find other ways to win.
     
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  2. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree 100%...
     
  3. clrockny24

    clrockny24 New Member

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    figured I wasn't crazy. Doesn't seem to be a very popular opinion though.
     
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  4. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    You'll have to get @cbrad or another of stats guys opinion, but someone posted the Pats winning percentages a year or so ago with and without Brady. It was much closer than most would think. IIRC, it was something like 62% winning percentage without Brady vs 67% with Brady.

    Bill just knows how to win and how to find guys that he can adapt with.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    As of right now Brady is 193-54 in regular season games for a 78.14% winning percentage:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm

    The first question is what you want to call "without Brady" in the Belichick era. For a statistician it's really hard to justify removing data and you basically HAVE to include the 2000 season where without Brady NE went 5-11. But we can also look at what happens if you ignore 2000.

    If you include 2000, then the regular season record (for games started) of all QB's in NE other than Brady in the Belichick era is 18-19 or a 47.37% win percentage. If you ignore 2000, then that record is 13-8 for a 61.9% winning percentage, just as you remembered.

    The more important question is: what kind of statistical test would one use to determine whether an 18-19 record or a 13-8 record is "likely" or "too unlikely" to be due to random variation?

    Basically you'd use what's called the binomial theorem that allows you to calculate the probability of observing at most X number of wins in N games given a win probability of 78.14%. And if that probability is less than 5%, then by convention statisticians will say it's too unlikely to have been due to random variation. Even without that 5% threshold, you can at least calculate the probability of observing 18-19 or 13-8 by Brady-led teams.

    OK, the results are: 18-19 or worse occurs about 0.008% of the time, and 13-8 or worse occurs about 6.83% of the time. So if you include 2000 (and keep in mind every statistician will) then clearly "with Brady" is different than "without Brady". But if you choose to cherry pick and not include 2000, then you are still slightly above the threshold where statisticians would reject the claim what you saw without Brady was due to random variation.

    Either way, it is telling that 13-8 or worse would occur only 6.83% of the time, so it's pretty unlikely either way.
     
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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Awhile back I posted stats showing the winning % of the Pats when Brady played well vs when he played bad. IMO, this is a better way to determine if the Pats can win with or without Brady because there is much more data involved and their game plans are the same. I can't remember those numbers off the top of my head, but there really wasn't a big difference in the Pats win/loss record. If Brady plays poorly they win. If Brady plays great they win.

    MVP is supposed to be awarded to a player that means the most to their respective team. For example, Rodgers led the Pack to a 4-2 record this season. Once he got hurt the Packers have gone 2-4. Last season, in the first 4 games the Pats went 3-1 without Brady and 4-0 with Brady in the next 4 games. Do I think the Pats are better with Brady? Of course. Do I think the Pats need Brady like the Packers need Rodgers or the Seahawks need Wilson? No, I do not.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
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  7. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To me he is clearly the MVP. When he noticed he couldn't carry the team and that the Pats need a great D to be successful (as always) he motivated them to play better. And boom, after going 2-2 in high scoring games, the D became one of the best scoring units and they went 8-0 after that. That is ALL on Brady! Plus, espn is calling him the GOAT. So, MVP.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I keep forgetting there's a forum here or I would have responded sooner LOL.

    Anyway, here's the win% vs. passer ratings graph for Brady for all regular season games. To be clear, this shows the win% given all games where Brady had a passer rating at or below whatever is on the x-axis. So his career regular season win% is at the right-most portion of the x-axis because that includes all games.
    [​IMG]

    The issue with these graphs however is where you put the threshold, either threshold for win% or threshold for passer rating. That is, you can come to different conclusions depending on where you place the threshold.

    Still.. you're right that these types of graphs can help answer certain questions that would otherwise be difficult.
     
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  9. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Now the Wentz is gone for the Eagles there is a good chance Brady may get it.
     
  10. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    I dont know how he does with his last two games.
     
  11. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There he is again, the master of winning things he doesn't deserve to win. ESPN will find ways to credit him for the win against the Steelers. 3-2-1...
     
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  12. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    He didn't play well that game at all, but hey
     
  13. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He has to be. I mean, what a genius. He knew he had drawn up a perfect defensive gameplan (yes he drew it up, don’t let anyone tell you differently) but what did his teammates do? They took the game too easy. So Brady had to get them concentrated again by sacrificing his stats by throwing a pick 6. But please don’t get it wrong. He did in on purpose to make his team better. You really have to see the big picture to understand his genius. And what a genius he is!

    Plus he always has to play the refs. I mean, as a QB you really lose rhythm with all those long replays. And obviously the replays were only necessary because the refs made the wrong call originally, both times against the Pats. But Brady can even beat the glorious NFL. What a man. MVP.
     
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  14. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Anyone who thinks the Pats aren't cheating and getting preferential treatment are closet Pats fans.
     
  15. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Or they understand the game and realize the genius that Belichick is.

    That said, the Patriots don't turn their season around without their defense making adjustments and improvements in the manner they did, so "no" I do not think Brady is the NFL's MVP. Not to mention, NE has never won the Super Bowl without a top defense. Brady is just another good QB without BB.
     
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  16. Fin D

    Fin D Derp Sherpa Club Member

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    Honest question, how do you separate their proven cheating from the "genius" label?
     
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  17. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    BB cheats. It's been proven. If you want to call his cheating "genius" that's on you. I just call it cheating.

    And Ernie Adams is the brains behind all things Patriot's football. Without him BB would just be another average to good coach. And without the cheating the entire organization would just be another average organization.
     
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  18. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Whatever helps you sleep at night.
     
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  19. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It doesn't affect me one way or another. Other than the fact that they are proven cheaters and I don't give them the benefit of the doubt on anything I couldn't care less about that organization.
     
  20. McLovin

    McLovin Resident Pats fan.

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    so are the dolphins prior to their undefeated season, but that's none of my business.
     
  21. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm assuming that you're referencing the Shula tampering?

    Regardless, doesn't matter. Replying to cheating with "he did too" is 3rd grade level stuff.

    If the Dolphins were accused of what the Pats have been accused and found guilty of, especially while I was alive (I wasn't during the Shula hire), I wouldn't defend them.
     
  22. McLovin

    McLovin Resident Pats fan.

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    BUT DID YOU DIE?!!?

    I still enjoy watching them. They don't control my life, just a sports team that I enjoy. Just like Finyank still probably wacks it to Alex Rodriguez.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
     
  23. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol...
     
  24. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, Deflategate really put a damper on Brady's play once it was uncovered how he was "cheating". Put a properly inflated football in that guy's hands and he really falls apart. He only winning two more Super Bowls with the Patriots and then led the NFL in passing in 2017. So glad millions was spent on that witch hunt. And Spygate was another joke.
     
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  25. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Easy. Watch the way they play football. Not only is it staunchly built on the fundamentals, but then introduce a versatile and flexible offensive/defensive schemes that not only allows you to use your player's strengths to your advantage but also lets you matchup vs your opponent in any manner you wish to attack them. Belichick does this on a regular every week basis.

    Facing a defense weak against inside power runs? Line up in the I-form, back it up with play action, and go to town. Does your next opponent lack speed, especially to the edge? Come out in the Spread, use zone run blocking, and stretch them horizontally.

    The most effective way to defend the pass is being able to operate out of a Cover 2 shell. It's a sound coverage and it also lends itself well to a wide array of disguises. The drawback is you can't slide that 8th man in the box to defend the run. Last year the Patriots base defense was a 3-3-5 Bear. They played Cover 2 with 5 DBs and was able to lock down the passing game. So what about the run? They played with a 6 man Bear front. With the NT zeroed over the C and two DT's lined up at the 3 tech (outside shoulder of guard), they were able to throw a wrench in the NFL's most popular zone runs. On an IZ, the Center will climb to the Mike. On a Duo, the Center will climb to the Will. Putting 3 interior lineman over them with MLB stacked behind the NT, and kicking out the other 2 OLB's they were able to stop team's run games with only a 6 man front.

    Belichick is a football genius.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2018
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  26. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nice strawman.

    However, deflategate didn't really help Brady's play that much (although I'm sure it helped some or he wouldn't have done it.)

    Take a look at the Pats turnover rate before the rule change (the rule about each team being able to supply their own footballs), during "deflategate", and since.
     
  27. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What a load of BS...You're able to figure it out but no other teams can, huh? LMAO!!

    A lot of teams play like this and don't have near the success of the Pats.

    Cheating and Ernie Adams are the reasons BB is a genius.
     
  28. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed. How to become a genius in just two paragraphs!
    Speaking of a genius: I'm (<- not the genius) still struggling with the details of Einstein's (<- genius) equivalence principle. So if someone could explain them to me within ca. 20 lines I would really appreciate it. Thanks in advance!
     
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  29. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No they don't. Many teams run static schemes or play heavily within their declared base; almost all, in fact do, with the exception of the Patriots. How they vary year to year, and even game to game is very very uncommon.
     
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  30. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dude, just stop. This is a copycat league. Cliché? Yes, but true.

    Many teams emulate the Pats' playing style. Few are as successful because they have no Ernie Adams and don't cheat.

    I realize that you want to act as if the cheating didn't happen, only God knows why you would, but the Pats cheat. They have been accused of, found guilty of, and punished on multiple occasions for... cheating.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2018
  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The basic concept isn't hard to grasp.

    I think some background info on why the equivalence principle is even important is useful though. Newton's 2nd law of motion states F = ma. In particular this means you can't have a force with zero mass = m. But light has no mass so according to Newton it shouldn't be affected by a force like gravity.

    Enter Einstein. He imagines a situation where you're observing all events within some closed environment, like all events within an elevator (and remember you can't observe anything outside of it). A ball within that elevator falling as if it's under the effect of gravity has the same behavior relative to the elevator as if the elevator were accelerating upwards and the ball is in space. That is, there's no experiment you can perform within the elevator that would allow you to distinguish between the effect of gravity on the ball vs. the effect of acceleration of the elevator while the ball is just in space.

    That's the basic idea behind the equivalence principle and the reason it's important is because it predicts light will be affected by gravity. How? Imagine a beam of light is sent from one side of the elevator to the other, but the elevator is accelerating upwards. Because the elevator accelerates upwards the beam of light will look like it's accelerating downwards relative to the elevator. If the equivalence principle really holds, then that predicts light should be affected by gravity, and that's been experimentally verified.

    The other important thing to note is that the ball (or beam of light) is still traveling in a straight line in space and time, and it experiences no acceleration when the reference frame (the elevator) is accelerating. So the only way to reconcile its curved path is to say space/time itself is curved. Well.. at least that gives you some intuition.

    Turning an idea like that into a mathematical theory where you can predict the degree to which gravity bends light took Einstein awhile to do (and required help from others), but that's the basic concept and relevance behind that principle.
     
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  32. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In December, Brady completed just 61.3% of his passes and completed a TD-INT ratio of 6-5 for a passer rating of 81.6.

    The Pats still went 4-1.

    Brady is not the MVP.
     
  33. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Forgot this forum existed.

    Your infatuation with Brady continues to amaze me.
     
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  34. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Still projecting, I see.
     
  35. mooseguts

    mooseguts Member

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    Just checked the 2016 and 2017 season were 2nd and 3rd lowest TO season for them since 2001 with 11 and 12. Only the 2010 Patriots had fewer turnovers at 10.
     
  36. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You need to look at fumbles.

    The rule change was made in 2007.

    2001- 13 fumbles
    2002-10
    2003-11
    2004- 13
    2005- 9
    2006-15

    Averaged 12 fumbles per year.

    2007- 6
    2008- 10
    2009- 9
    2010- 5
    2011- 5
    2012- 7
    2013- 9
    2014- 4
    2015- 7
    2016- 9
    2017- 4

    Averaged 7 fumbles per season.


    upload_2018-1-17_9-19-10.png
     
  37. mooseguts

    mooseguts Member

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    What rule change? I thought deflate gate happened in 2014/2015? Wouldn't the starting point be after deflate gate?
     
  38. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They were busted in 2015. He's been altering the footballs since 2007.

    In 2006 Brady petitioned the league to allow individual teams control over their own footballs. This rule change came to be in 2007. Coincidently the same year the Pats fumble rate took a nose dive.
     
  39. mooseguts

    mooseguts Member

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    Ah yes that does look highly suspicious.
     
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  40. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    @jdang307

    Look like your boy agrees more with me in regards to being the GOAT. ;)

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...g-nba-hall-famer-michael-jordan-ultimate-goat
     
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