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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Mar 18, 2020.
Don't you think this organisation has been hurting for long enough..?
Essentially your swapping #5 to get to #1, must account for that value we’re getting on that move up, then your giving up your two latter picks in the 1st, some of that value lost is regained by moving up to #1..
Consider the source.
It could all be speculation...90% of today's insider stuff is anyway.
That's why it is called a SWAG..... Scientific Wild @$$ Guess!.
If the team is sold on Burrow.... Do it! If they feel any of the next three or four can be a winning quarterback with a team built to win... do it. Sometimes it has felt that the draft picks have been made by a monkey throwing darts at a chart on the wall. I don't think this staff and coach will leave that impression with us. I just want to see the Dolphins winning again before it's time to cash my chips in.
If Burrow indicated that he did not want to go the the Bungles... to me that would show he had good sense.
If you consider the differences between draft spots are linear (each change is the same amount lower as you go thru each position in the draft), then you may have a point. But if there is not that much difference between those draft positions, then why bother to change if it costs you draft picks to make it happen?
If you consider the differences between draft spots non-linear, does that value change from draft to draft? If it does, how do you know how much a prospect is worth the change you want to make?
For that matter, how do you qualify a draftee when there are so many variables in play that effect the players ability to perform in the NFL as opposed to college? How will these young men change with a sudden and abrupt increase in wealth and the fact they will be targeted by many people for their money? This happens all the time with women playing the field and conmen working the wealth angle. I remember a recent top pick QB who buckled under the influence of these external pressures. This happens to a degree with many 1st round draft picks and to a lesser degree with lower round selections.
In the end, to what degree are you evaluating a prospect in order to determine if they are likely to be successful in the NFL? Fans can ignore everything but previous play, but teams can't. Since drafting success as measured by not who you want, but selecting players that make it past their initial contract, is critical for a team, it seems that increasing the number of people you can draft has a significant edge over reducing your number of picks in hope a specific player will shine in the NFL.
It's not just a players past performance that indicates if we should take them, but their maturity & character along with a meaningful skill set and physical capability. It's a package, and if a coach or GM ignores any one aspect in favor of an other aspect, they do so at their own risk and the future the team!
For these reasons, I'm usually opposed to trading up. There is too much focus on past field performance and not enough on the kind of person we are dealing with.
We may not be trading up for Burrow...it could be for someone else
Like I've said, I dont see anything in Tua that puts him above Herbert as a prospect at the next level.
If we trade up for him...I'll support him, but I dont necessarily believe it's a smart move.
All this is based on the BELIEF that Cinci would actually move off of the #1 pick. I do not consider that reality by any measure. Yes we have the capital to make it happen, Frankly, pretty easily but they need a QB as much as we do. I just don't see it as feasible in the least given the need in Cincinnati.
I wouldn't if I was Cinci, would you?
I would if I was Cinci. Because if I was Cinci I would be a terribly run team.
I have no idea what that dumb *** team is going to do
If the price is right, they would. The only question is, what would be the right price.
Me personally? If I was The Bengals, I'd tell Miami to give up all three picks and both seconds. Because, logically, if your worst case scenario is that you draft Burrow, I'd demand a King's Ransom.
Ok, I've not commented in this thread and I've not read all of the posts, but here's my 2 cents worth.
Trading up to draft Burrow is as stupid as a football bat. Burrow is indeed a stud and I suspect that if he were being drafted by a good team, he'd light up the stats board. Alas, he'll go to Cincinnati and end up being Marcus Mariota. Just my opinion.
Grier, Flores and the rest of the front office stripped the team, accumulating an insane amount of draft picks. Sound familiar? It's a play right out of the Patriots playbook and how's that worked out for them over the last 20+ years? And keep in mind, the Patriots were a GOOD team prior to the ascension of an unknown 5th round draft pick named Tom Brady. The Patriots used their formula of accumulating draft picks over the years to maintain the dominant team in the NFL. Now, the Miami Dolphins have the same opportunity to implement this exact same formula to be the dominant team in the NFL for years to come.
First off, the Dolphins should NOT even consider trading up to go for Joe Burrow. The Dolphins have way too many holes to fill and even if we did pull such an idiotic move, Burrow would be running for his life; making idiotic throws; turnovers left and right and would never have the opportunity to develop into an NFL quarterback. If you want your drafted quarterback to develop into an NFL caliber quarterback, he has to be playing with an NFL caliber team. Now, Flores impressed many of us last season, elevating the play of relative no-names to respectable players, but the fact remains, the Dolphins are not that NFL caliber team that you want your drafted quarterback to develop with. Analogy...you'd be asking a stud race car driver to drive the Daytona 500 in a 1967 VW Beetle, then complain when he loses.
Here's my two cents. If Tua is available at 5, take him. I'm not impressed with Tua, I don't think he has what it takes to make it in the NFL based on what I've seen but if he's there, take him. If not, ceste la vie, draft your team...be it with the picks you already have, or use the picks you have to trade for and accumulate further future draft picks. If we have the TEAM, you can bring in an "average" quarterback that can play extraordinary and take us deep into the playoffs. History is on my side in this regard.
Bottom line? If the Dolphins do something STUPID to trade up for Burrow, I'll be calling for the firing of Grier, Flores and everyone else involved. If I'm right, I'm right and if I'm wrong I'm wrong but I've followed football for longer than most here have been alive to know that the odds of me being right are far greater than they are of being wrong.
Not putting words in your mouth at all, I'm just curious because when I read your post this is how it seemed to me.
Are you saying Brady is an average QB?
Oh please let Newton go to the Chargers, just to shove a sock in their dumb-*** mouths. As long as we get Tua though.
If I could get the Dolphins # 5 plus 2 of their other 4 1st round picks over the next 2 drafts and a 2nd or 3rd rounder or two I’d do it. Because Cinci know we have a lot of coins in our purse they will expect us to overpay.
No, I'm not saying that at all but let's be perfectly honest:
If Tom Brady was such a phenomenal quarterback coming out of college, why was he the 199th overall pick? Granted, the 2000 NFL Draft was not quarterback heavy but the 6th round? 199th overall? Behind Chad Pennington (18th overall) and Marc Bulger (168th overall). Let's not pretend that Tom Brady was the hottest quarterback in the 2000 draft.
If Tom Brady was with the Detroit Lions or New York Jets, Cleveland Browns or any other dumpster fire of a team, does anyone truly believe he would have been able to develop into the great quarterback that he became? The answer is obvious and the answer is absolutely not. It was sheer luck that any of us ever had the opportunity to even learn about Tom Brady. Had Drew Bledsoe NOT been devastatingly injured by Mo Lewis of the Jets in 2001, Tom Brady would never had gotten the opportunity to start.
But to reiterate the point, the New England Patriots were a GOOD NFL team and because they were a good TEAM, that allowed an obscure average college quarterback to develop and grow into the great quarterback that we all know now.
This is where it gets tricky and I don't know the answer. Comparing the two, who is a more natural football player? Who understands defenses better and makes quick decisions with where to go with the ball? Who has better pocket awareness? Do they have the IT factor? Which one leads their team to victory late in the 4th? Which guy makes those around him better? These are the things I want to know about a QB. If you compare them athletically, Herbert should take the cake. However, that doesn't mean he is going to win more games in the NFL where defensive players are quicker, the windows are tighter, and defensive coordinators game plan against you and try and take away your strengths. Tua had a huge advantage in college because he was surrounded by superior talent. He might not have that advantage in the NFL. Are his underlying traits good enough to make a difference? Herbert didn't have Tua's advantage. Was he able to do more with less? If not, maybe he is more athlete than QB. As I said before, it's a tricky question. Taking a QB based on potential can be a fickle thing. One guy could make you look like a genius, another a doofus.
Herbie did it. Just sayin.
I will answer.. No he is not...
Brady's draft falls under the category "Every once in a while, even a blind hog finds the acorn!"
Excuse me... my wife's cat wanted to play... I will be getting a transfusion in a few moments....
Surfs Up has a good point... The team behind Tua could have probably won with any of the top 10 QB (at least in my opinion!) But, as usual, the QB gets the bulk of the recognition, which even if he is a GOOD player will be exaggerated. Which leaves the "who did the most with the least" proposition.
To me (being a SEC guy by and large!) to even be in this conversation means Herbert must have been pretty (Naval expletive deleted!) good. Does that mean he will outplay Burrow or Tagovailoa at the next level??? Damifino!! We have all seen highly regarded QBs come out of college and crash and burn. Tagovailoa seemed to play lights out in most of Bama's games. But, on the flip side, Herbert seemed to push Oregon farther than most people thought.. Bama will be Bama, LSU is usually LSU, but Oregon??? What did it take to make THAT happen? That is what intrigues me.. But, since I don't have time enough to really dig into that... I have to rely on you guys (and girls!) to drag that out. So, just following my gut... I would take the guy who did the most with the least - Because that is about where we are - and that to me would be Herbert!
Not necessarily for all the same reasons, but Herbert is my gut pick as well.
So the Miami Dolphins are Herbie the Bug?
He definitely had the least supportive of casts (well, Love may argue).
However, he also had a mu h easier schedule, and faced lesser defenses by a very wide margin.
Tua and Burrow may have played with the best, but also against the best.
No, just looked like a good place for a Herbie reference. I forget where but there is a connection of sorts between the Phins and Herbie. Or I could be starting to lose it. Been locked up with the wife and daughters for EVER! Well 7 days now and looking like another 3 weeks minimum before I can venture forth again. But I'm still breathing so, all good.
Herbie, the underrated race car that just won races in crazy ways
Herbert, the underrated rookie QB who just wins baby
Coincidence??I think so...
It'd be stupid to go "all in" on Burrow and give up all of our first and second round draft picks. Screw...That! Sorry, that's just too much to give up. My question is, what if Burrow doesn't want to play for the Bengals? Does that in way drive the asking price down a little bit? I don't know, let Cincy draft this kid and we'll go Tua or Herbert and keep our other picks. I like Burrow as much as the next guy and I would trade up to get him, i'm just not going to give them every F'ing pick we have in the first two rounds! They can have 5, 18, and a future first and a future second. That's about as good as my offer would get for him.
If we trust Flores to build and develop it would be stupid to go all in and give up 5 high draft picks for any QB...
If we believe that Flores and coaches could draft Hurts for example and coach him up... Or Anthony Gordon and coach him up... Then the best path forward is to keep trusting our coach and his staff.
As much as I like Tua... I am going to trust Flores.
We have not seen a miami dolphins coaching staff develop an offensive lineman in 20 years... We see Deiter turning into a good player. Flores turned Taco into a useful player... Needham into a useful player.. Cranberry man into a useful player. Parker played the best in his career... Rowe looked like he was an actual NFL worthy player for the first time in his life.
So if it is not Tua, Burrow, or Hebert... I am going to be calm and keep believing. This coaching staff has given me no reason not to believe that they are the best coaching staff of my lifetime.
Dude, I recommend alcohol....LOTS and LOTS of alcohol LMAO
I’m fine with whatever we do as long as it’s not drafting Tua any higher than our 2nd pick in the 1st round or giving up too much to move to #1.
If Burrow is legit, your pay any price to have Mahomes, Rodgers or a franchise QB. He would have no pressure to start day 1 and Fitz can continue to run it until our OL is solidified.
I get that we have multiple holes and QB’s are a crapshoot.
I’d love to see us trade back from 5 for someone who wants Tua. Take Wirfs, Herbert/Love and S/RB/OL with our 26th.
Honestly, it's hard without watching every single snap.
For instance, what if Herbert is making the right reads but his receivers arent settling into the open zone? It will never really reflect in stats.
College is hard because a guy like Timmy Chang can put up insane numbers while being a below average NFL talent.
If we want to go into numbers, aside from 2018 where Herbert struggled a bit, his seasons are on par with Lawrence who everyone loves. Like I said though, numbers arent all that matters.
What are you imbibing during the pandemic? I want some! Comparing Herbert to Lawrence. First off Herbert is 2 years older than Lawrence, and his numbers are not better, they are not the same. They are good... Lawrence's numbers are still better.
Also Herbert has not beaten a top team has he? Lawrence beat Bama as a freshman to win the national championship... He beat Ohio state this year in the playoffs. Lawrence is 25 and 1 as a starter and the only loss he has was to The National champion LSU squad
You are comparing Herbert to THAT Trevor Lawrence? Puff puff pass...
That wasnt my point actually, I think I phrased it badly.
My point was numbers arent everything, so I cant just look at Tua, Burrow or Herbert and say they will succeed because look at their numbers.
My point was more that if you use only numbers, you can make almost any comparison no matter how wild. That's why I started by saying it's hard unless you watch every snap and see what actually happened.
FWIW I'd obviously take Lawrence before Herbert at this point. Though I will say Herbert is my personal #1 QB this year. I could be wrong.
Based on college football only, Lawrence would be my #1 because he's been outstanding his entire college career. And I'd place him #1 because of his intangibles- making plays out of nothing and just being that guy when his team needs a hero.
#2 would be Burrow by the slimmest of margins, because he had the best season as a QB knocking off countless top opponents week after week. He stayed poised and was largely unfazed by anything...simply incredible season. But is he a one-year wonder that was in the perfect offense at the perfect time? There's no way to know.
#3 would be Herbert based on his entire body of work and steady production. Burrow and Lawrence looked much more polished to me, plus they both won big games on arm talent alone. Maybe Herbert belongs in the same conversation as them but I personally didn't see enough....I watched Herbert less than anyone in my "top 5" though.
#4 would be Tua, he is on par with Burrow and Lawrence but his injury history terrifies me.
#5 would be Jalen Hurts. He's a 2nd tier QB but possibly has the most natural talent out of anyone listed. Get him in the right offense and he might be around for a long time; just don't know if he's the type of QB we're looking for though. I'd rate Hurts over Love but that's just me.
I definitely like Hurts more than Love. I'd basically be okay at the end of the day with anyone but him.
I love Hurts
I think he is very underrated
I think he needs some bench time and a strong coaching staff, but he could develop pretty well.
For some reason, the QBs in this draft has me thinking back to the draft with Manning and Leaf. I found this on wikipedia.
To be clear, I am not saying anyone in this draft is a Ryan Leaf, but I found it interesting that, in the end, the difference between Manning and Leaf boiled down to intangible things like work ethic, maturity, attitude, passion for the game, etc., IMO. So when it comes to the QBs in this year's draft I want to know who is the gym rat? Who lives and breaths football? Who is coachable? Who can't get enough of the film room, the playbook, and practicing their craft? Who is a leader and helps those around him? That's the guy I want. For me, it starts here and since that kind of passion isn't exclusive, if more than one guy has those traits then I want the better-rated prospect. Physical talent can take you places, but I believe it's the intangibles that can take you to the top.
Most QB's need NFL Coaching and love to develop.
Unlike in the past 25 years... It looks like we the coaches in place to finally start coaching players up and developing them.
I would not hestitate to take Hurts and Gordon and plug them into the system and let our coaches work with them for a year or two
I mean, Fitzpatrick is almost a 100% lock at QB unless we trade up to #1 overall for Burrow or make a major trade move (both seem unlikely). So to me, this would be the perfect year to grab a raw QB in the later rounds, work with him for a couple of seasons and make him out-play your QB3 next year. Teams should be doing that every season because that's the only way you go from a Favre to a Rodgers or a Brady to a Jimmy G type of situation.
The Manning to Luck scenario only played out because Peyton got hurt and the team self-destructed without him. Yet everyone is dead-set on finding the next Andrew Luck in the 1st round and have a day-one starter for years....that's not a likely scenario most of the time. For every Dan Marino, the league will draft 100's of Cleo Lemons. It's the development at that next level that makes up the vast majority of the superstar QB's today.
Let you tell it! I agree. On paper, I think Grier has done a pretty good job so far. I sure hope he is serious about building up the trenches. I don't care who we have back there, we have to be able to protect him. What we did to Tannehill was a travesty. We need to learn from it and not make the same mistake twice.