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Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Oct 12, 2020.

Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?

  1. Yes

    42.5%
  2. No

    57.5%
  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Browns over Ravens
    Colts over Raiders
    Dolphins over Chiefs
    Pitt over Buffalo

    That's my picks in order of confidence. I'd call Buffalo/Pitt a tossup for either team.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I'm unfortunately not too confidant about any of the games working in our favor this week. The Browns beating the Ravens is the best chance of giving Baltimore a loss over the last month of the season, or they're going to end up 11-5 after being as low as 6-5 recently. That's probably our most important game of this week, even moreso than our own.

    Really hoping that the Steelers get their **** together again and can take care of Buffalo as well of course. And given that we are much more likely to win a tiebreaker with the Colts than the Raiders, we need to pull for Indy. If the Raiders lose this week, we could be in position to essentially end their season when we play them on the 26th.
     
  3. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    I got this sinking feeling 10-6 won't get it done for us, we need to either beat the Chiefs or Bills and beat everyone else or we might be looking in from the outside.
     
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  4. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    New England is getting alot of hype right now. I told you.

    But everyone here was rooting for them to beat Houston a few weeks ago for draft position. :001_rolleyes:
     
  5. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    We can take care of the Pats next week, so I regret nothing! :)

    If the Pats roll through the Rams, Phins, and Bills? Then they more than earned a playoff spot (not even counting the Jets game). Ideally, they lose to the Rams and Dolphins, beat the Bills, and then tank the Jets game to cost them the #1 pick.

    With so many potential AFC playoff teams playing each other this week, a LOT will start to fall into place.

    Oh, and... Go Bears!
     
  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    We CAN beat the Chiefs. We really can but the defense has to play lights out.

    I’m changing my tune about the Raiders. I think we can actually take that game. I’ve not been too impressed with them as of late.

    As for the Bills and the Patsies, it’s really difficult to sweep a team in your division. I really think we can win at least one of those, if not both.

    Our team for the remainder of the season is riding in the defense, not the offense. Tua is still too raw to hang our hopes on elite quarterback play from him. We just need him to play mistake free and the offense make sustained drives that end in some kind of points, and seeing how we have Mr Automatic as our kicker...
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  9. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    You were saying? :tongue:
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    With a NE loss they'll have 7 losses on the season. Last time that happened was 2002. One more loss (which is likely given that they play both the Bills and the Dolphins) means 8 losses. Belichick NEVER had that with Brady in 18 years.

    Given that their defense is still top 10 (#7 before this game in points allowed), this is a great "natural experiment" for estimating the effect of the QB. Brady was a tad below average last year but Newton is one of the worst in the NFL lol.

    Belichick and Brady parted to show each other who was more important, and at least Belichick is hurting as a result. Brady is still likely to make the playoffs in a weak NFC (except for a few teams at the top), but he's not going far. LOVE IT!
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  11. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Glad they put them to bed. With that said, next week will be flipped and it will be their Super Bowl for once.
     
  12. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    If we can beat the Patriots next weeks, that will essentially eliminate them from playoff contention. They're on life support now as it is.
     
  13. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I know you like to place more importance on the quarterback. This is where you and I disagree. I think the head coach (as well as the surrounding talent) has a greater impact. You illustrated the different paths between Belichick and Brady this season. Point taken however, look at Flores and the effect he has had on the Dolphins!

    Last season after gutting the roster and having 26 different, nobody players from 2018...with a quarterback that's been on 1/3 of the teams in the NFL...starting off 0-7 then finishing the season 5-4. This season, with the 3rd youngest team in the NFL, 22 different personnel from last season...that same quarterback starting the season then switching to a rookie quarterback and we're in the hunt for the playoffs.

    That's not the quarterback effecting the season, that's the head coach so while Brady and Belichick seem to be on different paths this season, it's also fair to say Belichick has even less to work with this season than he did last least, even when you take Brady out of the equation.

    Not only did Belichick lose defensive players to free agency, he also lost defensive starters that elected to sit the season out due to coronavirus...while Brady has had the benefit of being reunited with Gronkowski and Brown in Tampa.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I've consistently said HC > QB. Not sure how after all these debates you keep forgetting that. My point is that you consistently devalue the QB. Statistically, SB winners have a QB with an average z-score of 1, which is 84th percentile. That alone shows you how important it is. The QB isn't just some extra piece, it's one of the most crucial pieces.

    Second, the effect of Belichick losing key players on defense is apparently not great. He's often had mediocre players on defense (especially if you go back far). He's simply one of the greatest defensive minds in the game. Just like Flores has us at #2 in points allowed with average talent, Belichick is the same way. Yes that's the coach, but it also means that the main difference for Belichick from last year to this year isn't losing all those defensive players. It's losing Brady.
     
  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If Brady had been playing lights out football last season, I might could buy that argument but as we’ve already discussed many time over he was just average
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Like I said in my original post, it's a difference between average (Brady last season) vs. near-worst in the league (Cam Newton this season). Average rating is currently 93.3 and Newton is at 78.9. The offense went from 7th best to 25th in points scored with the only major change being Brady. That is primarily due to the QB.
     
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I don't disagree with your main point. Brady's experience in that offense was huge. However, they've also lost major contributions from Edeleman (injury) and Michael (injury and less production) this year compared to last. As well as OL Marcus Cannon. So its not just him.
     
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  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Newton obviously hasnt carried the load he needs to for them to win.

    That said I'm not 100% convinced Brady has them doing much better, their roster has been on the decline the last few years and Brady wont get younger.
     
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  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Slowly but surely, that dynasty is coming to an end. Its been far too long.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That's why I said the "only major change" was Brady. No question it's primarily Brady. They've lost WR's or other players before and hardly missed a beat.

    Brady's a fantastic system QB. We already saw what he did in that system last year. The results might not be exactly the same, but no reason to think they'd be 25th in points scored. NEVER happened before. Worst ever with Brady was 12th.
     
  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    You don't think that their leading receiver (who has a long history with Brady and is basically perfect for his style) and their leading RB are major parts of the offense???
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If you can show me evidence of how losing such pieces had a major effect on Brady in the past, then we can discuss this. Edelman isn't Randy Moss or Gronk you know. No, absolutely no. The ONLY major change on offense for NE was Brady.

    Don't forget, the worst they ever did with Brady was 12th in points scored.
     
  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Can't you ever look at things subjectively? LOL, we're very different people, I understand.
     
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  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Oh I'm definitely not saying they wouldnt be better. They would be, but im still thinking they are a ten MAYBE eleven win team with Brady. Far from the dominance of the past.

    Obviously that is just my opinion, not pushing it as fact.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, that's no different than what I'd argue. The average difference between an elite QB and average is estimated 2-3 wins if you go by passer rating, so that's what you'd expect between an average QB and near worst. 10 at most 11 wins vs most likely 8 or so wins is exactly in that range, so the estimate is realistic.
     
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  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That's crazy...I'm exactly the opposite for all games lol. Think there's a solid chance we both go 2-2 though :)

    I just don't see Pittsburgh as having a puncher's chance against Buffalo...pretty weak 11-1 team IMO...but would love to be wrong.
     
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  27. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    You have to hope that Pittsburgh is just really pissed off that they lost and everyone is calling them a fraud.
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To me, the Ravens and the Raiders have both been off these past few weeks- I think we were overachieving and have come back down to Earth. I picked the Fins because I'm a total homer and Pitt/Buffalo could go either way as a really close game.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This post didn't age well.

    And I'm still pissed that they lost to Houston.
     
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  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    They also have the chance to put important distance between themselves and Buffalo for the 1 seed. A Steeler win means that they only need one more win or one more Buffalo loss to knock the Bills out of that conversation.
     
  31. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I think Pittsburgh will beat the Bills, the Browns will beat the Ravens, the Colts will beat the Raiders and unfortunately, the Chiefs will beat the Dolphins. I do think we have a good chance at beating the Pats and the Raiders, though, which will give us a 10-win season. Enough for the playoffs? Don't know.
     
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  32. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    10 wins....7 teams in the playoffs...Yeah, I think 10 gets you in.
     
  33. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We dropped to 7 slot. It’s hard to root for the Raiders but it they need to win.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Guys, it looks like the most likely path to the playoffs is:

    1) We win 2 out of our last 3, with one of those wins against the Raiders (this directly knocks out the Raiders)
    2) Baltimore loses 1 of their last 4, and that loss has to be a conference game. That loss is most likely coming tomorrow against Cleveland because otherwise their opponents are weak: Jags, Giants, Bengals.

    Obviously there are some caveats depending on what some other teams do, but if that occurs we'd be tied with Baltimore at 10-6 but beat them on the next tiebreaker: conference records (7-5 to 6-6).

    In other words, it's possible our playoff chances hinge on Monday Night Football tomorrow: root for CLEVELAND!!
     
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  35. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    That’s what scares me. I was feeling good until we lost our 3 best receiving threats today
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Gesicki is the big one. I really hope he doesn't need surgery and he'll be back for the Raiders.

    Either way, good teams overcome, and I think this is a great test for Tua. We need a QB that isn't reliant on good surrounding cast, even if he performs way better with one. So bring it on!
     
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  37. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Active Member

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    It's all good. We're playing with house money. If we don't make the playoffs, we're still ahead of the rebuilding process by at least a year (and probably two). I'd love to see us make the tournament but I can see this house being built brick by brick on a foundation that has somehow been laid in record time. And i'm loving it too much to spaz out over putting a scare in the Super Bowl champions who might actually be better this year than they were last season.
     
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  38. Dolphan24

    Dolphan24 Member

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    Game over we are done no playoffs
     
  39. Pennphinphan

    Pennphinphan AKA Pennphinfan but I forgot my login

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    The road just became a lot harder with the ravens win. We need to win out most likely unless Baltimore stumbles against a terrible team.

    I don't care, this is the first time in a long time I've legit had fun watching Miami games. Super excited about the years to come
     
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  40. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Browns really hurt our playoff chances tonight. The Ravens will finish up 11-5 with three easy games left. The Browns will stumble to 11 wins with games against the Giants and Jets. The Colts get to 11-5 with wins over the Texans and Jags.

    That leaves Miami, even with a 10-6 record, out of the playoffs.

    Now this is the NFL and crazy things do happen, so maybe one of above teams loses a game they should win and we win some tie breakers to sneak into the playoffs? If not, we still saw a lot of team/coaching growth and early indications that Tua is the QB we've been looking for. The areas needing improvement are obvious, but we've got plenty of draft picks and some free agency money too.
     

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