Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

"cbrad wrote:

Really? You don't think that what Tua did against the Cards suggests he's one of those rare QB's that can carry a team if necessary? Those types of QB's tend to have sustained above average play.

This is testable though. If Tua performs well for most of our remaining games, and if the defense keeps their relatively high ranking in points allowed, then that should prove to you that this is sustainable.

Remember, you're now talking about sustainability, not "style". So if it's just sustainability you're after, then winning most of our remaining games alone should convince you that this IS sustainable.

If Fitzpatrick was still the quarterback I can see someone still not being excited about this team.

This guy is upset that they "squeaked by" a 5-2 Arizona team on the road with Kyler Murray playing at an MVP level. Not to mention Tua outdueling him in his second career start looking like a stud. If you can't get excited about that then I don't know what to tell you.

"cbrad wrote:

Really? You don't think that what Tua did against the Cards suggests he's one of those rare QB's that can carry a team if necessary? Those types of QB's tend to have sustained above average play.

This is testable though. If Tua performs well for most of our remaining games, and if the defense keeps their relatively high ranking in points allowed, then that should prove to you that this is sustainable.

Remember, you're now talking about sustainability, not "style". So if it's just sustainability you're after, then winning most of our remaining games alone should convince you that this IS sustainable.

Of course I'm also after what you call "style" as well. I want them to play in a way that I personally feel is clear proof of being a good team on both sides of the ball. I don't care if they play the way that they have the last two weeks for a decade straight, I can't feel condiant that doing that will work, and I can't feel good about the game while I'm watching it. I'm sorry. Emotionally, my brain doesn't work that way, and football is largely an emotional outlet for me.

Beyond that, I really have a hard time grasping what a high percentage of you guys don't have a particular kind of football that you enjoy watching. I mean, I accept it, after all the talks we've had, but I still can't understand it. But I suppose what drew me to football originally 30+ years ago, and what has kept me with it, is just different than a lot of other people.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

As I said, my joy isn't going to be based on wins and losses right now. I'm looking for details and progression. Right now, they're scrappy and surviving and squeaking things out mostly by the seat of their pants. I'll be happy when that settles down and isn't necessary most of the time, and things slow way down on both sides of the ball.

Do you not count 5 wins in the last 9 games last year (with "the worst roster in NFL history" Steve Young) and 5 wins in the last 6 this season (when every pundit has picked against us) as progression? And of the wins this season, only the win against the Cards was close (with last years no1 pick playing at a very high level on a week where as you said, our WR core was thin and the RB core was even thinner plus they came off a bye & we had 5 coaches out due to the COVID protocol) as the other wins weren't close - we took apart the Jags, the 49ers, the Jets and the Rams in pretty much every category apart from yards against in the Rams game.
Look at many of the best QB's in history and they all have a high number of come from behind/squeaky wins - every team has them, it's not exclusive to us.
You have said yourself that we are slightly ahead of where we thought we were going to be after a total rebuild - just enjoy the wins Lucky, the upward progression will take care of the rest.

"Patster1969 wrote:

Do you not count 5 wins in the last 9 games last year (with "the worst roster in NFL history" Steve Young) and 5 wins in the last 6 this season (when every pundit has picked against us) as progression? And of the wins this season, only the win against the Cards was close (with last years no1 pick playing at a very high level on a week where as you said, our WR core was thin and the RB core was even thinner plus they came off a bye & we had 5 coaches out due to the COVID protocol) as the other wins weren't close - we took apart the Jags, the 49ers, the Jets and the Rams in pretty much every category apart from yards against in the Rams game.
Look at many of the best QB's in history and they all have a high number of come from behind/squeaky wins - every team has them, it's not exclusive to us.
You have said yourself that we are slightly ahead of where we thought we were going to be after a total rebuild - just enjoy the wins Lucky, the upward progression will take care of the rest.

I see all of that as a credit to Flores. He's proving himself to be a good coach who can win with less when he has to. That in itself is a good sign for our future. I'm glad to see it, and its important.

But its not just that the final score is close that's my issue. Expecting blowout wins at this point would of course be unrealistic. Its the fact that nearly every play on both sides of the ball looks so frantic and desperate. And on the offensive side of the ball, it often looks like the play is broken and they have to figure out a way to make the most of it. The ability to do that, when forced to 5%-10% of the game is valuable, but its happening 80%-90% of the time. More than anything, that's my issue.

Again, I get that there are a lot of reasons for that. I'm not angry that its happening right now. They're young and inexperienced. But I guess where I differ is that I watch it, and sigh, and say "man, we have a LONG way to go", whereas you guys all just seem to be excited about it and not too worried about the details.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Sure. But I'm a lot more interested in building a sustainable winning team that can go out and do their thing, week after week, for five or six seasons in a row. A team that barring severe injuries or horrible luck should be favored to reach the Divisional Round most seasons.

The teams that go to the Super Bowl on the backs of big plays, like the 2015 Panthers who went 15-1, almost always crash back down to Earth and aren't the same afterwards. They went 6-10 the next year, and have only had one winning season since.

I see no reason why the Defensive scheme is not sustainable. Of course you're not going to get turnovers and scoop and score points every week but the pressure this team is able to generate on the front end complimented by the coverage in the back is going to get turnovers on a fairly regular basis. This system is based on some of the best defenses of the last 20 years, The Patriots defense. It's nearly the same thing they have run for a long time since Belicheck got there. They have used it to win 6 Super Bowls over 20 years. I would most definitely call that sustainable.

All of that said, everyone knows that this team isn't even complete yet. We still have holes to fill on the defense, in particular guys that can stuff the run and set the edge better. I think you're concern here is unnecessary.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

If Fitzpatrick was still the quarterback I can see someone still not being excited about this team.

This guy is upset that they "squeaked by" a 5-2 Arizona team on the road with Kyler Murray playing at an MVP level. Not to mention Tua outdueling him in his second career start looking like a stud. If you can't get excited about that then I don't know what to tell you.

Look every truly great team has had many close games. At the end of the day a win is a win and I will take it however we can get it. When all is said and done and people look back on previous years records all they will see is team "A" was 12-4 that year and won the superbowl. They are going to see they won 6 games by a combined 10 points. You're going to win close games and you're going to get blown out. happens to every team.

The thing that every one needs to keep in mind is this team isn't even COMPLETE yet! We still have holes to fill. This team is far from being where Flores wants, but a year ahead of even our most optimistic predictions this team is more than likely going to make the playoffs. No one saw that coming! This is like a bonus year and just a small preview of the future, a prologue. I am just going to enjoy what is happening and watch this team grow.

Go back and look at my posts 16 and 26 in this thread. It is pretty much what we have seen.

There were good things starting then and if you were looking you could see them. This team is young and is learning how to win. They are far from perfect but I'll take a team in our position every day that fights and scraps and finds a way to win. They are learning that and once the holes start to fill it's only going to get better. They will show the polished play that some are looking for.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I see all of that as a credit to Flores. He's proving himself to be a good coach who can win with less when he has to. That in itself is a good sign for our future. I'm glad to see it, and its important.

But its not just that the final score is close that's my issue. Expecting blowout wins at this point would of course be unrealistic. Its the fact that nearly every play on both sides of the ball looks so frantic and desperate. And on the offensive side of the ball, it often looks like the play is broken and they have to figure out a way to make the most of it. The ability to do that, when forced to 5%-10% of the game is valuable, but its happening 80%-90% of the time. More than anything, that's my issue.

Again, I get that there are a lot of reasons for that. I'm not angry that its happening right now. They're young and inexperienced. But I guess where I differ is that I watch it, and sigh, and say "man, we have a LONG way to go", whereas you guys all just seem to be excited about it and not too worried about the details.

Definitely blow out wins should not be the norm, particularly as the whole point for the league is that they want parity but as was said previously, the only game where there was a huge discrepancy was the Rams game and we know the reasons behind the low offense output (ie, they weren't required). The other wins we dominated without much issue.
Possibly the reason that it looks like that on offense (as I think you already said) is that the oline is a work in progress with 4 new starters, no recognised RB and a slightly depleted WR core (we are missing Wilson imo) plus a rookie QB & new OC - that will bed down though over the next few games as we are hoping that we are now settled at QB.
On D, I think that's just the way it is, with 8 on the LOS and on the snap, everyone goes to their designated area/role

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I don't care if they play the way that they have the last two weeks for a decade straight, I can't feel condiant that doing that will work, and I can't feel good about the game while I'm watching it. I'm sorry.

Well this quote says it all. Even IF it's proven that we can consistently win with a style you don't like, you still won't feel confident that we can win with that style.. even IF it's proven otherwise.

Then there's nothing to debate really. You're not interested in wins nor actual proof of sustainability, just style of play.

Did you guys see this:
https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/nfl-playoffs-expanding-covid-19

The league approved a proposal that will expand the playoffs from 14 to 16 teams for the 2020-21 postseason according to the MMQB's Albert Breer. If COVID-19 were to get in the way and prevent the league from playing a full regular season, than the playoffs would expand to 16 teams.

I guess that's one way to increase our playoff chances lol.

"Galant wrote:

Oddsmakers are getting bullish on the Dolphins' Super Bowl chances. And they show respect for Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa. Here are the numbers. https://t.co/20OgPCDQtK

— Hal Habib (@gunnerhal) November 12, 2020

The hype is just a few weeks too early for me, with regard to this year.

We clean up the rest of November than I'm willing to start believe we can do some serious damage.

https://theathletic.com/2195638/2020/11/13/four-key-ways-tua-tagovailoa-and-the-dolphins-can-make-the-2020-playoffs/?source=weeklyemail&redirected=1

Four key ways Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins can make the playoffs

1. Open up the playbook for Tua
2. Win at least three of the next four games
3. Get healthy and prevent a COVID-19 outbreak
4. Keep applying pressure on defense

I don't think that "opening up the playbook" is as necessary as getting the OL to block effectively, for both the run and pass, and figuring out a way to get the receivers and Gesicki open without defenders hanging all over them. Everything just seems so much harder for our offense than for most of the rest of the teams around the league, but that's been the case for a long time.

I watched the 49ers play the Packers last week, with basically their entire normal offense out with injury or Covid, and backup (sometimes third string) QB Nick Mullens throwing the ball to WIDE OPEN Richie James, he of 15 career catches before that night, and none on the season, and backup TE Ross Dwelley.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I don't think that "opening up the playbook" is as necessary as getting the OL to block effectively, for both the run and pass, and figuring out a way to get the receivers and Gesicki open without defenders hanging all over them. Everything just seems so much harder for our offense than for most of the rest of the teams around the league, but that's been the case for a long time.

I watched the 49ers play the Packers last week, with basically their entire normal offense out with injury or Covid, and backup (sometimes third string) QB Nick Mullens throwing the ball to WIDE OPEN Richie James, he of 15 career catches before that night, and none on the season, and backup TE Ross Dwelley.

I think we're going to start seeing a lot more Jakeem Grant and Malcolm Perry in space. Perry had a nice route last weekend where he created space and was open down the field.

"The Guy wrote:

I think we're going to start seeing a lot more Jakeem Grant and Malcolm Perry in space. Perry had a nice route last weekend where he created space and was open down the field.

That's certainly possible. There aren't many choices left, with Ford gone and Williams injured. I'm not enthusiastic about either one as a long term option beyond this season, though.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

As I said, my joy isn't going to be based on wins and losses right now. I'm looking for details and progression. Right now, they're scrappy and surviving and squeaking things out mostly by the seat of their pants. I'll be happy when that settles down and isn't necessary most of the time, and things slow way down on both sides of the ball.

huh..

Team is so far ahead of schedule from a complete rebuild is ain’t funny, there’s your progression, the details are evident..

If you can’t get excited about this team in the context that they are the youngest team in football doing what their doing then man that’s a shame

"djphinfan wrote:

huh..

Team is so far ahead of schedule from a complete rebuild is ain’t funny, there’s your progression, the details are evident..

If you can’t get excited about this team in the context that they are the youngest team in football doing what their doing then man that’s a shame

That's the main thing I feel good about, that and Tua, because that essentially subtracts years from this team's developmental plan. Now instead of talking about continuing to build through the draft to be competitive in 2022, we can talk about building through the draft and being competitive next year. Hell if this team continues its trajectory it can make noise in the playoffs this year. I don't think it can be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this year, but a playoff win isn't out of the question.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Of course I'm also after what you call "style" as well. I want them to play in a way that I personally feel is clear proof of being a good team on both sides of the ball. I don't care if they play the way that they have the last two weeks for a decade straight, I can't feel condiant that doing that will work, and I can't feel good about the game while I'm watching it. I'm sorry. Emotionally, my brain doesn't work that way, and football is largely an emotional outlet for me.

Beyond that, I really have a hard time grasping what a high percentage of you guys don't have a particular kind of football that you enjoy watching. I mean, I accept it, after all the talks we've had, but I still can't understand it. But I suppose what drew me to football originally 30+ years ago, and what has kept me with it, is just different than a lot of other people.

you’re lacking perspective sir

"The Guy wrote:

Hell if this team continues its trajectory it can make noise in the playoffs this year. I don't think it can be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this year, but a playoff win isn't out of the question.

This "COVID" year is a great opportunity for the Dolphins to go deep in the playoffs because home field advantage is so low. It's also an added benefit that only the #1 seed has a bye, if you're squeaking in as a WC or even as a division winner at #3 seed or below, because you'll most likely NOT face a team that had a bye in your 2nd playoff game.

This defense seems legit and should end up top 6-7 points allowed at the end of the year. If Tua keeps playing well our offense will be there too, and at that point there's no reason to think a deep playoff run isn't possible.

"djphinfan wrote:

you’re lacking perspective sir

No. I don't lack perspective. I simply have a different perspective than you do. I just follow my own heart.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

No. I don't lack perspective. I simply have a different perspective than you do. I just follow my own heart.

Football is about building a team from the ground up, you want the finished product before the work is done, that’s lacking perspective.

"djphinfan wrote:

Football is about building a team from the ground up, you want the finished product before the work is done, that’s lacking perspective.

Not at all. That's really the exact opposite of what I'm saying.

My desire is to see the team do the basics well first. What should be the simple things.

- Run the ball, with the running backs, at a near-average level.
- Run basic passing plays that pick up moderate yardage (not focused on YAC) at an average level.
- Defend the opposing run game at an average level.

Then, once you can walk, you can then try and run, and do things like try and also create big plays on offense, run trick plays that involve WRs running the ball on occasion, blitz regularly, and try and create turnovers. And ultimately, once they get to that point, worry about things like the two minute offense and big comebacks, ect.

I need to see them do the 101 level things before I'm going to be too concerned with the more advanced stuff.