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Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Oct 12, 2020.

Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?

  1. Yes

    42.5%
  2. No

    57.5%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I would much, much rather the Fins emulate the 2018 Rams offense, personally. There were a ton of things that I enjoyed seeing from that version.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Of the Chargers first eight drives this past week against the Jets, the shortest one was 5 plays and ended in a touchdown. Every other one was at least seven plays, they included drives of 11, 12 and 16 plays. They completed 37 passes and ran the ball 26 times, despite issues on their OL and being down to Ballage at RB still.

    The week before, the Patriots completed 27 passes and ran the ball 41 times. They also had three drives of at least 11 plays, gained a first down on every drive, and six of their nine drives ended in a score.

    The Chiefs scored at will the week before that.

    And before that, Buffalo didn't have a three and out all day. They attempted a FG on eight of their nine drives, and six of their drives were of at least eight plays.

    The opprotunities will be there to be had for Miami if they're willing to take them. Don't get greedy and impatient. Take what's there.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And avoid sacks and penalties. Those are the killers of that extended drive approach. One holding penalty or one sack and the vast majority of drives are done.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  8. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

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    I voted yes. They’ve gotten there before with less. The real question is can they win a game in the postseason. It’s been a while.
     
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    The last time that the Fins won a playoff game was twenty years ago, in 2000.

    The last time that they won a wildcard game where it didn't come down to the final seconds was 1994. The last time that they were competitive in the Division Round was that season season.

    We still have a long, long way to go to get back to that level. That's ok. It takes time to build something substantial and sustainable. But I'm not going to be excited about a team that just sneaks into the playoffs and gets destroyed again, unless they're making steps towards more than that.
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    They are taking steps towards becoming a solid team. Last year we were ranked 25th in points scored, this year 13th so far. Last year we were ranked 32nd in points allowed, this year 4th so far. That's after 10 games so it's not a fluke. Still 6 games to go, but the last time we saw rankings like this for the Dolphins was the early 2000's.

    Also, it's hard to imagine getting "destroyed" in the 1st round unless we face a team like KC that can do that. We're solid enough to avoid getting destroyed by most teams and not too many of these playoff teams are the kind that would be expected "destroy" most other playoff teams. Lots of good teams though, so winning won't come easy.
     
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  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Better Dolphins teams than this one have gotten their doors blown off in the playoffs. Often. The Fins have scored a total of 37 points in their last seven playoff losses. That's 5.3 PPG going back almost 25 years. All three touchdowns by the Dolphins in those seven games have come after it was already a hopeless blowout.

    So if the Dolphins manage to do anything other than get destroyed in a loss, it would be something that hasn't happened since Shula was the coach. Hopefully, we get to that point some day.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Factually untrue. We won Wild Card games in 1998, 1999 and 2000 without Shula. Unless you're only looking at losses, in which case that's really skewing the statistics.

    Regardless, it's not clear those teams were "better" until we see the result. They may have looked better to you because they played a style you like, but that doesn't mean they stood a better chance of not getting blown out in the playoffs.
     
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  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I stated that I was talking about losses. In my previous post, I pointed out that every playoff win after 1994 was a wildcard game that came down to the final seconds. When they won, it was by the very skin of their teeth. When they lost, the game was never close at any point, and the offense in particular was just completely inept. Game after game.

    For me, I'm still on pause following the Divisional Round loss in 1994, the last time that we were better than that, waiting for them to pick up where they left off and build on it. But I've aged from a high school senior to middle age while I do.
     
  14. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

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    We actually have a coherent coach/gm combo that seems to be on the same page at least defensively. With all of the resources they’ve acquired I am very
    optimistic in whatever plans they have going forward.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bold prediction here: we don’t see Tua the rest of the year.
     
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  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Bold indeed. But I can see it being plausible. If Fitz goes in and the offense suddenly wakes up against the Jets and Bengals, in spite of the injuries we're dealing with, and the team is 8-4 and still in contention, the team might just say that Tua's thumb is taking longer to fully heal than they thought, and let Fitz stay in while the team still has a chance.

    If Fitz goes in and they stink, regardless of whether they win or lose, then I think we'll see Tua back in as soon as he's ready. And then what happens happens from that point on.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think they've already made the decision to shelve him for the remainder of the season barring injury to Fitzpatrick. I think they know he's their QB of the future, but that he's too inexperienced to get them to the playoffs this year. Consequently Fitzpatrick has to take over.
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm not sure I like that plan. But, if Tua can't read a defense presnap accurately, then he needs to be on the bench.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That sure looked like the issue against Denver. And imagine if that's coupled with picks that start to be caught as defenses continue to confuse him.

    At least with Fitzpatrick you get picks coupled with efficiency. With Tua you could be looking at picks coupled with inefficiency.
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The beginning of the end of Tua's 2020.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    All depends on your interpretation of "destroyed." We just played a team that is near bottom of the league in those stats (they'd given up 30+ points their previous 4 games, we managed a whole 13, with a gimme field position), and got beat a lot harder than the scoreboard showed, IMO. Sure as hell felt like destruction to me, when we should've won the game handily. Talk about "not ready for prime-time"...that game hit me in the guts.

    I have ZERO faith in this team should they limp into the playoffs.
     
  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I know that its short notice with the game tomorrow afternoon, but I really think that the league is going to postpone this one. Its entirely the Broncos fault, and they aren't even allowed to sign a guy off the street to start if they wanted to, but is the league really going to have a team play a game with zero quarterbacks on the roster? The Saints will win by 60 if they do. Stack nine men in the box on every single play.
     
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  24. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but the NFL wouldn't do this to the Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, Packers, Saints or Seahawks.
     
  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Sadly, the league clearly has first class, second class and third class franchises these days, and you're right. You can put Dallas into that mix as well, regardless of their record.
     
  26. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I was at that game. Most incredible game I have ever attended.
     
  27. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Was that against the Colts? If so, I was at that game too. Lamar Smith was unstoppable that day
     
  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    It was exciting for sure. They looked like they were going to lose for a lot of it, lol. That was part of my point, how that game, and the ones in 98 and 99 were down to the very last second.
     
  29. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It was. My friend and I got stuck in traffic and by the time we got there, all the stadium parking was full and we had to pay to park in someone's yard, then walked a mile to the stadium. By the time we got to our seats, the Dolphins were already down 14-0.
    When Lamar Smith won in OT by rushing for that TD with Colts hanging all over him, strangers in the stands were hugging each other and everyone just went nuts.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article247487685.html
    The primary reason Tua won't play again this year unless Fitzpatrick is injured or the team is eliminated from playoff contention.
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Playing around with the playoff predictor.....its not looking great, unfortunately. There just aren't a lot of scenarios where the Fins get in should they finish 10-6, which assume that they beat the Bengals, Patriots and Raiders. Due to the weird combinations that can happen with tiebreakers between three or more teams, it actually looks like the Fins have a better shot at getting in as the #7 seed with two teams ahead of them at 11 wins, than if there's a big group that all finish with 10 wins trying for the #5 seed.

    So, the easiest way for the Fins to get in with 10 seems to be the Ravens winning out to finish 11-5, the Browns finishing with 11 or 12 wins, the Raiders finishing with 9 or fewer, and Miami winning a tiebreaker with the Colts.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We're the 6th seed right now and all our remaining games are against conference teams, so there's really no excuse to miss the playoffs. We shouldn't need "help", we should be capable of taking care of business ourselves. This will be a great test to see if we're no longer the Dolphins of old.

    Interestingly, if the playoffs were held today the Dolphins would play the Titans. This board would explode lol.
     
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  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I think that you're asking a lot for this team to win 11 games, though.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I don't think playoffs with 10 wins is as difficult as you're suggesting, assuming we beat the Raiders. It's not obvious the Ravens will win all 4 of their "easy" games, nor is it obvious the Colts will keep pace. Remember what happened to us recently: we beat the Rams and Cardinals but then lose to Denver. Stuff happens.

    This site calculates playoff probability based solely on records:
    http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html

    Dolphins are at 50%. It's not as hard as you might think.
     
  35. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ekA

    I like to use this one, and mixed and matched a bunch of end results. Its not just probability, but literally picking the winner of each game. And like I said, due to the complexities of 3 and 4-way ties, it doesn't work out in Miami's favor a lot of the time if they land at 10.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Probabilities are more reliable because you're looking at all possible combinations of W/L for each game weighted based on the probability of winning. The only question is how accurate the probabilities of winning are. The best you can do is go by the records of the two teams in each matchup, so I'd trust the probability based simulation more than manually picking winners.

    Oh, and the tiebreaker rules are of course encoded into those simulators.
     
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bill Barnwell:
    That needs to be shouted from the mountaintops. Fortunately the Dolphins' pass defense is at the 94th percentile in the league in EPA per pass dropback, which makes them competitive against any team in the league.

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/st...-chiefs-saints-steelers-packers-more-struggle
     
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  38. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Clearly not. Looks like he's starting today. And unless you think Flores wants to deliberately decrease his chances of winning, this is Flores saying Tua > Fitz.
     
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  40. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    From PFT:

    Among the top nine AFC teams in the NFL playoff picture, eight of them are facing each other in Week 14.

    The Steelers, currently slated to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, visit Buffalo on Sunday Night Football.

    The Chiefs, No. 2 in the AFC, visit the No. 6 Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. The Browns, No. 5 in the AFC standings, host the No. 9 Ravens on Monday night. And the No. 7 Colts visit the No. 8 Raiders.

    Among the top AFC contenders, only the No. 4 Titans, who visit the Jaguars, are not facing another playoff contender.

    There’s plenty of intrigue in all four games. The Steelers have been atop the AFC standings all season, but a loss to the Bills combined with a Chiefs win would change that. On the other hand, if the Steelers beat the Bills and the Dolphins beat the Chiefs, the Steelers strengthen their grip on home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and the Dolphins find themselves tied with the Bills for first place in the AFC East. The Browns could make a strong statement that they’re for real and put a nail in the Ravens’ coffin — or the Ravens could put themselves right back in the playoff mix. The Colts-Raiders winner will be in playoff position with three weeks to play, while the loser will be on the outside looking in.

    We’ll know a lot more about the AFC playoff race in a week than we know now.
     
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