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Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Oct 12, 2020.

Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?

  1. Yes

    33.3%
  2. No

    66.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Consider that in 2019, as measured by offensive and defensive EPA per play, the Dolphins were in the bottom tier in the league:

    [​IMG]

    Now consider that in 2020 they have vaulted themselves into the third tier:

    [​IMG]

    All the teams in the top three tiers in 2019 made the playoffs.

    Playing better against patsies, perhaps? No. The Dolphins have had the 10th-strongest schedule in the league in 2020.
     
  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    So this is really tough. We are at best, to me, a .500 team who has played two great games and also some terrible ones.

    We are basically the definition of a .500 or so team in that light. Is a .500 team a playoff team? Well sometimes.
     
  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I see your Jim Mora and I'll raise you an Allen Iverson....PRACTICE?!!,
     
  5. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Possibly. I think we’re a 7-9 team but in the NFL a few turnovers or big plays here and there could mean 10-6 or 6-10. Either way, it’s fun to watch this team again and after a very long time, I have HOPE.
     
  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    No. If they maximize themselves, stay healthy, and end up about 6-6 after twelve weeks, they still have to face the Patriots, Chiefs, Raiders and Bills over the last month.
     
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Are the Dolphins a playoff team? Hmmmmm, that's about one of the silliest questions of all the questions that could be asked!

    The Dolphins are 2-3, their 2 wins came against the Jaguars (1-4) and yesterday's win against the 49ers (2-3). Now before anyone toots their horns on the superiority of the 49ers, keep in mind their 2 wins came against the Jets and the Giants. The 49ers have lost to the Cardinals, the Eagles and now us. Hell, my high school football team could beat the Jets and the Giants!

    Now I'm not trying serve sour grapes after yesterday's win, not at all. Not only did we win against the 49ers, we whipped them! I can't remember the last time the Dolphins put up 43 points and our win against the Jaguars was a decisive win as well. The sad thing though, our losses against winning teams;
    L 11-21 vs New England (2-2)
    L 28-31 vs Buffalo (4-0)
    L23-31 vs Seattle (5-0)

    New England's record is a bit skewered due to the loss of Newton due to Covid, but let's be objective here. The Dolphins are 2-0 against teams with a combined record of 3-7 and 0-3 against teams with a combined record of 11-2. That simply isn't going to cut it, let alone be considered as a "playoff" team.

    The Dolphins have put up an average of 27.2 points per game this season. In the Dolphins 3 losses, the offense put up 20.7 points per game and in the 2 victories, the Dolphins put up 37 points per game. Defensively, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 26.2 points per game. In the 2 victories, the defense gave up 15 points per game but in the three losses, the defense gave up 27.7 points per game.

    Bottom line, I think the Dolphins are a better team than their record indicates...but not a playoff team.
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If they're a better team than their record indicates, then they're in effect at least 3-2 instead of 2-3. You can't be "better" than 2-3 without being in effect at least 3-2.

    3-2 is a win percentage of 60% (9.6 wins out of 16 games), equaling a regular season record of either 9-7 or 10-6.

    Last year two teams made the playoffs with records of 9-7. This year the playoffs have expanded from 12 to 14 teams. Under those conditions last year, another 9-7 team, as well as an 8-8 team, would've made the playoffs.

    It sounds like you need to redefine "playoff team" in your mind. You have the definition elevated too highly. It doesn't take as much as you think, apparently, to make the playoffs.
     
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    At the end of the day Guy, it doesn't matter whether you are better than your record indicates...you ARE what your record indicates.
     
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but "the end of the day" is at the end of the season. If they are better than their record indicates, according to you, then according to you the record they'll have at the end of the season is likely to be at least 9-7, which makes them fairly likely to make the playoffs.

    In essence you've argued for a playoff berth without realizing it, because again, your definition of "playoffs" is too lofty.
     
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Can we win the division? No.
    Are we in the top two for the rest?
    I would say unlikely but possible.

    Beyond that.. what is a playoff team?
     
  12. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    Under these expanded playoffs, they can definitely be a playoff team event at .500. Can the actually do damage in the postseason though? That's up in the air.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
  13. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Like I said I think we need to redefine what we mean by playoff team.

    Do we mean a team that could sneak in? Yes. Do we mean a team that goes into the playoffs kicking *** and taking names? Not unless we establish some consistency week to week on defense especially but also Fitz.
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There is a poll here asking the question "will the Dolphins make the playoffs?" That was the intended definition.
     
  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If it's a straight up yes or no question, my answer would be no.

    If it were asking about potential to sneak in I'd say sure, I do think we will stay around .500 for the year, that was my prediction before the season started and I'll stick to it.

    The issue is even at 8-8 in this expanded playoff it would most likely come down to tie breakers with someone that I cant predict.
     
  16. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Consider that due to the schedule changes our next 8 weeks are
    Jets at Miami
    BYE
    Rams at Miami
    at Arizona
    Chargers at Miami
    at Denver
    at Jets
    Bengals at Miami

    Every game in that stretch is very winnable, particularly if we get the play we had from them yesterday, except the Rams and I think that is setting up pretty well for us. The Rams play the previous Monday while we have a BYE. They have to come all the way to the east coast and it should still be fairly warm in Miami then.

    If we get on a roll who knows? We could be sitting with an 8-4 record with 4 left to play!

    Hey, you never know.
     
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  17. Thunderkyss

    Thunderkyss Member

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    It's still early, record really doesn't have a lot of value right now. The Bills are the Bills. They look good now, but we've seen this before. Didn't they go 6-0 one season & finish 6-10 or something like that?

    True, same can be said of the Dolphins. Just got to keep getting better every day. Whoever continues to do so through whatever is coming (COVID-19) will be a playoff team.
     
  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You are right, you never know but I see us losing against the Rams, the Cardinals and possibly the Chargers
     
  19. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Several of our "fans" saw us losing to the 49ers, we were a 9 point underdog. You never know. Development and chemistry of the team are key. If injuries remain manageable then yes, we could very well be a play-off team.
     
  20. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    C'mon guys. A complete knee jerk reaction in the opposite direction. The Dolphins should beat the Jets by 10 on Sunday if they are an average/above average team. If they can do that maybe we can talk playoffs then.
     
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  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The issues we saw in the first three games I don’t think will go away, they can be masked but better teams will exploit the inability to stop the run..

    I think we may give that last seed a run.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If the statistics in the original post weren't what they are, it would suggest the Dolphins are doing it with smoke and mirrors. On the other hand, those statistics suggest they're actually better than their record indicates, especially when strength of schedule is considered.

    It isn't knee-jerk to consider this team likely to make the playoffs right now.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The run defense is indeed an issue. However, notice that in the Dolphins' two wins, the opposing teams ran the ball very well but were still heavily outmatched, starting very early in the game. Such is the nature of the run game in the present-day NFL -- it doesn't score many points, and it can be all but nullified by a lopsided scoreboard.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Additionally, last year the playoff teams were the following:

    Baltimore
    KC
    NE
    Houston
    Buffalo
    Tennessee
    SF
    GB
    NO
    Philly
    Seattle
    Minnesota

    After week five last year (where we are now this year), these were the tiers in the league:

    [​IMG]

    So with only five weeks gone in the regular season in 2019, the above statistics were performing fairly well in distinguishing playoff from non-playoff teams. Again note that the Dolphins, according to this formulation, are one of the top 14 teams in the league in 2020 (see the original post).
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If Adam Gase isn't fired after the game with us, then the Jets are tanking for Trevor.
     
  26. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    The Rams I pretty much count as a loss, but anything can happen.
    We always play the Chargers well and win more often than not.
    Arizona I think will be pretty evenly matched.

    And I'm not saying we will make the playoffs, I am saying that we are not automatically excluded from the possibility.
     
  27. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I just don't know yet, if 8-8 is all it takes they could sneak in.

    It's just hard too hard to predict right now- 2 out of the 3 teams we lost to are undefeated, and our 2 wins have been against below average or injured teams. However, we effectively blew both out which is encouraging.

    I don't think we'll really have a good guess until December.
     
  28. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    No. Not even close.
     
  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I'd like to see us thump the Jests first. We've beaten two not-good teams handily. We lost to 3 good teams in games that were largely respectable.

    We out-talent the Jests and have more motivation and momentum. We are a team prepped to be on the rise. They are a team prepped to bottom out. However, we split last year. That's frankly not acceptable this year - our players have almost entirely turned over from the Gase era so it's not like he has insider knowledge to exploit. We need to shut them down, make Darnold see ghosts and leave them in the dust.
     
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  30. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    It depends.
    If the OL has reasonable health and keep splaying well.
    If Jones and Howard are healthy and can keep the pass defense solid.
    If the DL starts stepping up and playing consistently like last week.
    If Fitztragic doesn’t show up for an extended stay.
    Then we are in for a WC shot.

    Possible, yes. There are just too many “ifs” for my liking.
     
  31. Alan in England

    Alan in England Member

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    miles off being a play off team .Come back next year or the year after that
     
  32. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Why would they tank to Trevor when they have the Dangerous Sammy Darnold? LOL. I got laughed at on draft day for saying out loud that Josh Allen would be better than Darnold (on the flip side its looking like Herbert is gonna make me eat my shoe).
     
  33. FishOutOfWater

    FishOutOfWater Member

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    I’m not expecting playoffs, but obviously I’d love to see them make it. I think they finish 8-8. Might be good enough for the 7 seed, might not. I’m more concerned about development of the young players (so all of them really) and new players fitting in with the franchise’s big picture plans.
     
  34. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    We are a playoff team if Byron Jones and Xavian Howard can stay healthy. If we have to revert back to Noah full time we likely won't even be in the discussion come December.
     
  35. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 He can smell your fear

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    Aren't they adding a 7th seed this year? I voted yes.
     
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  36. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Josh Allen is looking like Josh Allen right now.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yes and that’s a critical point.
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    After today:

    Tiers.png
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Dolphins are currently 9th in the league in both EPA per pass dropback offensively and EPA per pass dropback defensively, the two strongest predictors of winning in the NFL.

    This is looking more and more like a playoff team, folks.
     
  40. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Be careful Guy, that is much too rosy of an outlook for some of the "fans" on this site. Tone it down or, you will be called out on it.
     
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