Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

So this is really tough. We are at best, to me, a .500 team who has played two great games and also some terrible ones.

We are basically the definition of a .500 or so team in that light. Is a .500 team a playoff team? Well sometimes.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I see your Jim Mora and I'll raise you an Allen Iverson....PRACTICE?!!,

Possibly. I think we’re a 7-9 team but in the NFL a few turnovers or big plays here and there could mean 10-6 or 6-10. Either way, it’s fun to watch this team again and after a very long time, I have HOPE.

No. If they maximize themselves, stay healthy, and end up about 6-6 after twelve weeks, they still have to face the Patriots, Chiefs, Raiders and Bills over the last month.

Are the Dolphins a playoff team? Hmmmmm, that's about one of the silliest questions of all the questions that could be asked!

The Dolphins are 2-3, their 2 wins came against the Jaguars (1-4) and yesterday's win against the 49ers (2-3). Now before anyone toots their horns on the superiority of the 49ers, keep in mind their 2 wins came against the Jets and the Giants. The 49ers have lost to the Cardinals, the Eagles and now us. Hell, my high school football team could beat the Jets and the Giants!

Now I'm not trying serve sour grapes after yesterday's win, not at all. Not only did we win against the 49ers, we whipped them! I can't remember the last time the Dolphins put up 43 points and our win against the Jaguars was a decisive win as well. The sad thing though, our losses against winning teams;
L 11-21 vs New England (2-2)
L 28-31 vs Buffalo (4-0)
L23-31 vs Seattle (5-0)

New England's record is a bit skewered due to the loss of Newton due to Covid, but let's be objective here. The Dolphins are 2-0 against teams with a combined record of 3-7 and 0-3 against teams with a combined record of 11-2. That simply isn't going to cut it, let alone be considered as a "playoff" team.

The Dolphins have put up an average of 27.2 points per game this season. In the Dolphins 3 losses, the offense put up 20.7 points per game and in the 2 victories, the Dolphins put up 37 points per game. Defensively, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 26.2 points per game. In the 2 victories, the defense gave up 15 points per game but in the three losses, the defense gave up 27.7 points per game.

Bottom line, I think the Dolphins are a better team than their record indicates...but not a playoff team.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Bottom line, I think the Dolphins are a better team than their record indicates...but not a playoff team.

If they're a better team than their record indicates, then they're in effect at least 3-2 instead of 2-3. You can't be "better" than 2-3 without being in effect at least 3-2.

3-2 is a win percentage of 60% (9.6 wins out of 16 games), equaling a regular season record of either 9-7 or 10-6.

Last year two teams made the playoffs with records of 9-7. This year the playoffs have expanded from 12 to 14 teams. Under those conditions last year, another 9-7 team, as well as an 8-8 team, would've made the playoffs.

It sounds like you need to redefine "playoff team" in your mind. You have the definition elevated too highly. It doesn't take as much as you think, apparently, to make the playoffs.

"The Guy wrote:

If they're a better team than their record indicates, then they're in effect at least 3-2 instead of 2-3. You can't be "better" than 2-3 without being in effect at least 3-2.

3-2 is a win percentage of 60% (9.6 wins out of 16 games), equaling a regular season record of either 9-7 or 10-6.

Last year two teams made the playoffs with records of 9-7. This year the playoffs have expanded from 12 to 14 teams. Under those conditions last year, another 9-7 team, as well as an 8-8 team, would've made the playoffs.

It sounds like you need to redefine "playoff team" in your mind. You have the definition elevated too highly. It doesn't take as much as you think, apparently, to make the playoffs.

At the end of the day Guy, it doesn't matter whether you are better than your record indicates...you ARE what your record indicates.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

At the end of the day Guy, it doesn't matter whether you are better than your record indicates...you ARE what your record indicates.

Yeah but "the end of the day" is at the end of the season. If they are better than their record indicates, according to you, then according to you the record they'll have at the end of the season is likely to be at least 9-7, which makes them fairly likely to make the playoffs.

In essence you've argued for a playoff berth without realizing it, because again, your definition of "playoffs" is too lofty.

Can we win the division? No.
Are we in the top two for the rest?
I would say unlikely but possible.

Beyond that.. what is a playoff team?

Under these expanded playoffs, they can definitely be a playoff team event at .500. Can the actually do damage in the postseason though? That's up in the air.

Like I said I think we need to redefine what we mean by playoff team.

Do we mean a team that could sneak in? Yes. Do we mean a team that goes into the playoffs kicking ass and taking names? Not unless we establish some consistency week to week on defense especially but also Fitz.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Like I said I think we need to redefine what we mean by playoff team.

There is a poll here asking the question "will the Dolphins make the playoffs?" That was the intended definition.

"The Guy wrote:

There is a poll here asking the question "will the Dolphins make the playoffs?" That was the intended definition.

If it's a straight up yes or no question, my answer would be no.

If it were asking about potential to sneak in I'd say sure, I do think we will stay around .500 for the year, that was my prediction before the season started and I'll stick to it.

The issue is even at 8-8 in this expanded playoff it would most likely come down to tie breakers with someone that I cant predict.

Consider that due to the schedule changes our next 8 weeks are
Jets at Miami
BYE
Rams at Miami
at Arizona
Chargers at Miami
at Denver
at Jets
Bengals at Miami

Every game in that stretch is very winnable, particularly if we get the play we had from them yesterday, except the Rams and I think that is setting up pretty well for us. The Rams play the previous Monday while we have a BYE. They have to come all the way to the east coast and it should still be fairly warm in Miami then.

If we get on a roll who knows? We could be sitting with an 8-4 record with 4 left to play!

Hey, you never know.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

At the end of the day Guy, it doesn't matter whether you are better than your record indicates...you ARE what your record indicates.

It's still early, record really doesn't have a lot of value right now. The Bills are the Bills. They look good now, but we've seen this before. Didn't they go 6-0 one season & finish 6-10 or something like that?

True, same can be said of the Dolphins. Just got to keep getting better every day. Whoever continues to do so through whatever is coming (COVID-19) will be a playoff team.

"Tin Indian wrote:

Consider that due to the schedule changes our next 8 weeks are
Jets at Miami
BYE
Rams at Miami
at Arizona
Chargers at Miami
at Denver
at Jets
Bengals at Miami

Every game in that stretch is very winnable, particularly if we get the play we had from them yesterday, except the Rams and I think that is setting up pretty well for us. The Rams play the previous Monday while we have a BYE. They have to come all the way to the east coast and it should still be fairly warm in Miami then.

If we get on a roll who knows? We could be sitting with an 8-4 record with 4 left to play!

Hey, you never know.

You are right, you never know but I see us losing against the Rams, the Cardinals and possibly the Chargers

Several of our "fans" saw us losing to the 49ers, we were a 9 point underdog. You never know. Development and chemistry of the team are key. If injuries remain manageable then yes, we could very well be a play-off team.

C'mon guys. A complete knee jerk reaction in the opposite direction. The Dolphins should beat the Jets by 10 on Sunday if they are an average/above average team. If they can do that maybe we can talk playoffs then.

The issues we saw in the first three games I don’t think will go away, they can be masked but better teams will exploit the inability to stop the run..

I think we may give that last seed a run.

"Destroyer wrote:

C'mon guys. A complete knee jerk reaction in the opposite direction. The Dolphins should beat the Jets by 10 on Sunday if they are an average/above average team. If they can do that maybe we can talk playoffs then.

If the statistics in the original post weren't what they are, it would suggest the Dolphins are doing it with smoke and mirrors. On the other hand, those statistics suggest they're actually better than their record indicates, especially when strength of schedule is considered.

It isn't knee-jerk to consider this team likely to make the playoffs right now.

"djphinfan wrote:

The issues we saw in the first three games I don’t think will go away, they can be masked but better teams will exploit the inability to stop the run..

I think we may give that last seed a run.

The run defense is indeed an issue. However, notice that in the Dolphins' two wins, the opposing teams ran the ball very well but were still heavily outmatched, starting very early in the game. Such is the nature of the run game in the present-day NFL -- it doesn't score many points, and it can be all but nullified by a lopsided scoreboard.

Additionally, last year the playoff teams were the following:

Baltimore
KC
NE
Houston
Buffalo
Tennessee
SF
GB
NO
Philly
Seattle
Minnesota

After week five last year (where we are now this year), these were the tiers in the league:

So with only five weeks gone in the regular season in 2019, the above statistics were performing fairly well in distinguishing playoff from non-playoff teams. Again note that the Dolphins, according to this formulation, are one of the top 14 teams in the league in 2020 (see the original post).

"Destroyer wrote:

C'mon guys. A complete knee jerk reaction in the opposite direction. The Dolphins should beat the Jets by 10 on Sunday if they are an average/above average team. If they can do that maybe we can talk playoffs then.

If Adam Gase isn't fired after the game with us, then the Jets are tanking for Trevor.