A serious look at Suck for Luck

AZ & STL....best case is a split....but if STL sweeps they are done....if AZ sweeps they move to 3 wins and are clearly done.

But a split knocks out AZ anyway.

 

STL & AZ split knocks out AZ....and if STL beats SEA once...woot..knocks STL out.

Minny should grab 2nd win vs DEN at the latest. knocks them out.

So, have to figure our Colts wins....could be neck and neck for sure till week 17. Need SoS%!

that seems to be the 1 win race...(if we find a miracle to win 1)

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedWins

Official End of Week 8 Draft positions Wins & SoS% tiebreaker

1) Miami 0 wins .600%
2) Indy 0 wins .604%

3) AZ 1 wins .452
4) STL 1 wins ..630

​

 

Feel 1 Win secures #1 too.

Hoping Indy fines a way to grab 2....I think actually every NFL team will have 2 wins....but honestly, I want Miami to have 1, but seems unlikely. I will be sad if so.

Also, even though we have a small SoS% lead going into MNF....will be hard to hold off Indy or AZ if we are tied with 1 win, etc.

 

updated not including tonights MNF (P.S. best case to help us is KC win...and SD loss since KC is also on IND sched but SD is only on ours).

Using the GBN full opponent listing for SoS % we still have a slight edge for #1 overall

[TABLE="width: 304"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SD[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TB[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ATL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OAK[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]41[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]53[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]95[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5444[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5579[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

One thing going for us in SOS is that Indy plays the much tougher AFC North and NFC South. 3 teams could reach 10 wins in both those divisions. By contrast I think the Eagles and Giants are the only threats for double digits in the East and the aFc West could be won at 9-7.

Also, the AFC East may end up a wash with the South as NE problably will win it but with only 10 or 11. If either the Jets or Bills come back to Earth (8-8 or so) we could sneak ahead of Indy.

 

Indy has a three game home stretch, its time to grab this #1 pick by the horns.

 

Updated to include KC win and SD loss from MNF...Week 8 completed

Miami is trailing in SoS% if tiebreaker is needed, mainly do to JAC 2 wins benefiting Indy twice per weaker div.

[TABLE="width: 318"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SD[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TB[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ATL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OAK[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]113[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]119[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5664[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5462[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

 

Pad you'll be happy to note that the much maligned D is 12th now in the league. They have the opportunity to really hammer the Redskins struggling O next week but we'll see if they continue to fight. I expect Vontae to respond and play well.