What a terrific morning. Nothing like waking up and realizing your team is still playing football while 20 others are sitting at home. Of course, I'm talking about the playoffs. I thought it might be fun to take a look at the 12 remaining teams, and try to determine what we've got left in terms of the favorites, the contenders, the pretenders, and the dark horses. Setting aside the euphoria from yesterday's win, I'm going to take a look at each team's chances realistically, trying to avoid shading things through aqua and orange lenses. First, let's take a look at how I see the AFC playing out. There are a number of heavyweight teams in the AFC this year. Heck, the Patriots finished 11-5 and couldn't get in, that's how stacked things are. The Favorite Looking at the field of six teams in the AFC, there's one team that jumps out to me as the favorite. This is a team that's 12-4, but has somehow flown under the radar this year. Perhaps the hottest team in the entire league right now, the Indianapolis Colts started slow this year, but they haven't lost since Week 8 to the Tennessee Titans. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback on the planet with All-World Tom Brady sidelined, and Manning has been playing perhaps the best football of his career the second half of the season, willing his team to win at times. Don't forget, they've got weapons on the offensive side of the ball, with familiar names like Addai, Wayne, Harrison and Clark. They've also gotten good contributions from their role players, like Dominic Rhodes and Anthony Gonzalez. Defensively, they are capable of an adequate pass rush with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. This is not the porous Colts defense of old. They are 7th in the league in points given up defensively, and 6th in the league in passing yards defended. Tony Dungy remains one of the best coaches in the NFL, a master motivator that gets the most out of his players. They will be a tough out for any team that plays them in January. The Contenders These next three teams are all very similar in terms of style of play. I'm talking hard-nosed, physical football. These are teams that love to beat up their opponents. Smash mouth, blood-and-guts type teams. Throwbacks to teams of the past, such as our own Dolphins in the 1970s. Lots of people have the Tennessee Titans making noise in the playoffs this year, and with good reasons. The Titans boast a superior defense (2nd in the NFL in points given up) and have a top 10 rushing attack led by rookie sensation Chris Johnson and bruising tailback LenDale White. In some respects Tennessee reminds me of our own Miami Dolphins, with a veteran quarterback who doesn't make a lot of mistakes. Kerry Collins defines the word "game manager," as he hasn't been asked to win a lot of games, but been asked to minimize his mistakes and allow this team to do what it does best. Tennessee's defense is rock-solid foundationally, led by arguably the best defensive player in the game, Albert Haynesworth. Javon Kearse and Keith Bulluck are veteran, but smart players. In the secondary, Chris Hope, Michael Griffin, and Nick Harper are all solid. Cortland Finnegan has come up with a number of key plays late in games to help preserve wins. The Titans are coached by the underrated Jeff Fischer, the current dean of NFL coaches. Fischer has been with the Titans since the days they were known as the Oilers, and started with the organization way back in 1994. You have to like Tennessee's chances in January. Continuing the theme of hard-nosed physical teams, don't count out the Pittsburg Steelers this year, either. The Steelers boast one of the leagues best defenses. First in points allowed. First in yards allowed. First in passing yards allowed. Second in rushing yards allowed. As always, it's the linebackers that are the story in Pittsburg. This year it was LaMarr Woodley with the breakout season, amassing 11.5 sacks, 2 fumbles forced, and 1 interception. James Farrior had his usual spectacular year with 100+ tackles, and James Harrison was simply outstanding once again, with 101 tackles, 16 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. Factor in the underrated Larry Foote, and you have the makings of the NFL's best crew of linebackers. In the secondary, they're led by the hard-hitting Troy Polomalu, but all of their cornerbacks are capable of making plays. Offensively, the Steelers have been forced to throw the ball a bit more than they would like due to injuries to speedster Willie Parker. Things start and end with Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for over 3000 yards as well as 17 touchdowns this season. Big Ben got rocked in the game yesterday, and it remains to be seen whether he'll be ready to play by January 10. Mike Tomlin is a young coach, but has shown himself to be more than capable, overseeing a virtually seamless transition from previous coach Bill Cowher. Rounding out the contenders, you have the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are a bit of a curiosity. They start a rookie quarterback in Joe Flacco. They've got a rookie head coach in John Harbaugh. Not surprisingly, with those two factors in play, the Ravens rely on a heavy running game (4th overall). Willis McGahee and Leron McClain have split carries this year. Both are big (McGahee is 232 pounds, McClain 260), and are loads to bring down. The Ravens rely mainly on a famously aggressive defense. That defense, led by the ageless Ray Lewis, is currently third in the NFL in points allowed, and second in passing yards allowed and total yards allowed. They also check in as 3rd overall against the rush. It's a defense that really doesn't have a lot of weaknesses. The aforementioned Lewis may not be the player he once was, but he is still a tackling machine capable of the occasional big play. Bart Scott is a great compliment to Lewis, and on the outside Terrell Suggs is a fearsome pass rusher. The secondary is led by Ed Reed, who just might be the best safety in the NFL. Samari Rolle and Frank Walker start a CB, and while these players aren't necessarily All-Pro, they're still more than capable of getting the job done. The Ravens are a physical team that looks to shut you down with an aggressive defense, and then run it down your throat on offense. The Pretender There's always at least one team that seems to sneak into the playoffs, despite the fact that they really have no business there. This year, that team is the San Diego Chargers. At 8-8, the Chargers benefitted from some timely Broncos choking to sneak into the playoffs. This is a hot team; the Chargers have won their last 4 games, rising from a 4-8 record like a phoenix from the ashes. They do have some weapons on offense - Phillip Rivers is one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL, Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson are a decent pair of wideouts, and Antonio Gates is always a threat at the TE position. They still have LaDainian Tomlinson, and one of the most exciting players in the game in Darren Sproles, an electric bowling ball of a player. But Tomlinson has looked to be teetering on the edge of mediocrity this year, averaging only 3.8 YPC, the lowest average since his rookie season. Both Jackson and Chambers disappear for long stretches of time on offense, leaving Rivers to play Superman much of the time. Defensively the Chargers are average at best, and really miss Shawne Merriam's pass rushing ability on the outside. Their cornerbacks, Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie, are both gamblers, who will go for interceptions rather than making the sound fundamental play. This is a secondary that gives up over 247 yards a game, second worse in the NFL. I'm also not the biggest fan of their coach, Norv Turner. Turner is a guy who's always looked more comfortable as a coordinator than as a head coach. I initially pencilled this team in for a trip to the Super Bowl, but as it stands now, I just don't see this team doing much in the playoffs, as they've got too many question marks for me. The Dark Horse Those of you who are still reading (or at least skimming) this looking for the Miami Dolphins, look no further. Our team is the Dark Horse. It's hard to believe that with Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland, and Tony Sparano we've taken a team that was 1-15 a year ago and turned around and won a division title. How far will this team go in the playoffs? Offensively, we've got a guy that should win the MVP award in Chad Pennington, and we run that wacky Wildcat offense that gives opposing teams fits. We're a well balanced team, capable of getting big contributions from a number of players. Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams appear to be getting better as the season rolls along, Brown in particular has looked fresh at the end of games these last two weeks. There's no denying this is a hot team - after starting 2-4 we went 9-1 to close things out. The Dolphins have been built as a conservative, methodical team, capable of playing with any team on any given Sunday - 11 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less. Defensively, they're lead by veteran player Joey Porter, who exploded for a career high in sacks this year. Jason Ferguson, Matt Roth, and Channing Crowder help anchor a defensive front 7 that only gives up 101 rushing yards a game - good for 10th in the NFL. In the secondary, Yeremiah Bell brings the thunder from the strong safety position, while cornerbacks Will Allen and Andre Goodman have shown themselves to be more than adequate defenders - really this duo is our best pair of cornerbacks since the glory days of Madison and Surtain. The defense utilizes a "bend but don't break" philosophy that results in a lot of field goals. We give up a lot of yards per game (329 yards, 15th in the NFL), but we don't give up a lot of points (19.8 per game, 9th in the NFL). Tony Sparano has proven himself to be a tremendous coach in the first season, and with Pennigton at the helm this team could really make some noise, perhaps getting as far as the AFC title game or beyond. In the NFC, things are much murkier than they are in the AFC. Several of these teams are unproven in the playoffs, and it's a bit more difficult to handicap things. The Favorite One team that is clearly the favorite is the New York Giants, last year's Super Bowl Champions. Eli Manning has made that next step to elite quarterback status, and the "Earth, Wind, and Fire" running backs of Brandon Jacobs, Dedric Ward, and Ahmad Bradshaw have all made plays. The Giants average 157.4 yards per game on the ground. Both Ward and Jacobs broke 1000 yards rushing this year, with Bradshaw in the mix as well. This is a team that's scary good, even without Plaxico Burress currently on the roster. Despite some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, the G Men still generate a fierce pass rush, led by Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka. Antonio Pierce is underrated at ILB. Perhaps more than any other team, the Giants play defense as a unit, with no real stars standing out, but together they are a handful. The defense only gives up 18.4 points per game and 292 points per game, good for 5th in the NFL. Factor in that they love to run on offense, and you've got a team that's clearly been built for a deep playoff run. Tom Coughlin has settled in as head coach, as he's matured he's mellowed a bit, though he is still capable of the occasional sideline tirade. I like this team's chances to be playing in the Super Bowl. The Contenders I've always enjoyed watching the Carolina Panthers brand of football. In a lot of respects, this is the one of the few (the Giants being the other) teams that plays that AFC North Smashmouth style that I like so much. Jake Delhomme is still a gamer at the quarterback position, and Steve Smith might be the most exciting wide receiver in all of football. What makes this particular Panthers team go, though, is the young duo of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, who spearhead the third best rushing attack in the NFL. Former bust DeAngelo Williams really came into his own this year, amassing over 1500 yards rushing. He's gone for over 100 yards in 7 of his last 9 games. Complementing the shifty Williams is hard nosed Stewart, who averages 4.5 yards a carry and has found the end zone 10 times this year. Defensively the Panthers aren't as aggressive as years past, though they still have a number of big-time players on that side of the ball. Jon Beason keeps things locked up at MLB, while Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble keep things in front of them at the CB spots. The Panthers defense is similar to our own - lots of yards given up (331.2, 18th), but not as many points per game (20.6, 12th). I also really like John Fox. I think he's an underrated coach and has done a tremendous job with continuity in Carolina. The Atlanta Falcons remind me quite a bit of the Ravens in the AFC. Like the Ravens, they've got a rookie head coach and quarterback, Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. A rookie qb's best friend is a consistent running game, and the Falcons have one of the league's most explosive players in Michael Turner. Turner had a career year, with nearly 1700 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. The crazy thing is that the guy is only 26, and spent the last 4 seasons backing up LT, so it's not like he's got a lot of mileage on his tires. Roddy White has now put together back-to-back seasons of 1000+ yards receiving, and Michael Jenkins has proven to be an adequate #2 option. Defensively, the Falcons have some question marks, but this is a unit that only gives up 20.3 points per game, good for 11th in the league. John Abraham has had a monster year for them at DE, with 16.5 sacks, while Grady Jackson and Jonathan Babineaux keep things under control in the middle of the defense. Veterans Keith Brooking and Lawyer Milloy anchor the linebacker and secondary units, respectively. This is a team that could do some real damage in the playoffs. Turner is lightning in a bottle, a guy that is capable of taking it to the house every time that he touches the football. At the end of the day, however, how far this team goes really depends on the play of their quarterback. Matt Ryan has looked legit in his first season under center, however this is now the playoffs, so all bets are off. The Pretenders On paper, you'd think I would like the Minnesota Vikings a lot. They've got the best running back in football, Adrian Peterson. They've got a top notch defense, particularly against the rush. But I just can't get behind this team in terms of what they're capable of, mainly because I just don't know what they have in Tarvaris Jackson. Look, I'll admit that Jackson has looked good these last few weeks, but he looked awful - just awful - to start the year. Outside of Peterson, there's no one else on the offense that scares anyone, though Visanthe Shiancoe probably frightens his own teammates in the locker room after the game. Pat and Kevin Williams anchor a defense that is first against the run, while part time drunk Jared Allen anchors the RE position. I really don't like Allen as a human being; I believe him to be a rather large bag of douche, particularly after a game in which he went after the QB's knee - twice. Ben Leber and Chad Greenway are both adequate OLBs, while Antwoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin are both very good cornerbacks. This is a defense that should be very good, but they give up too many points per game (23.7, 12th in the NFL) and way too many yards (330.5, 17th) for my tastes. On the sidelines Brad Childress reminds me of Ned Flanders from the Simpsons (minus the hair), and I just don't know if he's up to the task of being a capable NFL head coach. Maybe this team gives Peterson the rock 40 times and they win the game, but for now, I just can't see them getting very far. I just can't see the Arizona Cardinals making it out of the first round of the playoffs, let alone making it to the Super Bowl. There's no denying that Kurt Warner has resurrected his career in the desert, and that both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are nightmare matchups for opposing defenses, big physical receivers more than capable of making the spectacular grab. Here's my problem though. Outside of those three players, Arizona doesn't have a lot else going for them. Tim Hightower has shown flashes at running back, taking over for a used up Edgerrin James midway through the season, but outside of that, I'm not really impressed. Heck, even with Hightower the Cards still only run for 73.6 yards per game, dead last in the NFL. I believe you have to be able to run the ball to win in January. Additionally, Arizona benefitted from playing in arguably the worst conference in the NFL, the NFC West. They have a defense that's below average, particularly in points allowed (26.6, good for 28th in the NFL). I do like Ken Wisenhunt, I think he's a good coach and a good fit for the identity this team is attempting to forge. I just see too many question marks when I look at this team though. The Dark Horse Believe it or not, I really like the Philadelphia Eagles as a dark horse candidate for the Super Bowl. Superstar running back Brian Westbrook is finally healthy, and Donovan McNabb can still make plays for them from the quarterback position. I believe this team can go as far as Westbrook takes them, as they are a completely different team when he is not in the game. Outside of Westbrook, McNabb is once again making due with middle of the road wide receivers, though rookie DeSean Jackson has been a surprise and favorite target Kevin Curtis is rounding back into playing shape. On the defensive side of the ball Jim Johnson has once again fielded a superior unit. The Eagles are in the Top 4 in all major defensive categories - Points Allowed (4th), Yards Allowed (3rd), Passing Yards Allowed (3rd), and Rushing Yards Allowed (4th). Trent Cole is an underrated DE, with 9 sacks on the year, while on the other side Juqua Parker has been a pleasant surprise. Don’t sleep on the Eagles, they boast a scary secondary, with all-universe CB Asante Samuel on one side and Sheldon Brown on the other. Brian Dawkins is still a capable player from his safety position as well. They're coached by Andy Reid; a guy I think has taken an undue amount of abuse this year from malcontent Philadelphia fans. Both Reid and McNabb seem to thrive when things are unraveling around them; no more is that evident than this season, where some were calling for both of their heads midseason. They responded by closing out the season 4-1, and finished up yesterday by blowing the doors off a prima donna Dallas Cowboy team that may be more dysfunctional than they are. The Super Bowl So there you have it. When it all boils down, the realist in me predicts an Indianapolis Colts / New York Giants Super Bowl. A Manning against Manning matchup would make for compelling drama, fitting for the biggest game of the year. Don't think I'm not rooting for our Miami Dolphins though. I do think our team could make some noise particularly if things play out in our favor (think beating the Ravens, and then going to Pittsburg to play them without their starting QB). The stars appear to be aligning for us, like they have all year. With this team, and with this quarterback, anything is possible.
Brian Westbrook not Michael. The Eagles defense ranks top 5 in all categories, I think. I like your dark horse picks
I don't think the Giants make it to the Super Bowl. They have been brought back down to the rest of the pack after Plaxico's whole situation, in my opinion.
Yeah, it certainly changes what they do on offense. In some respects, it might have been a blessing for it to happen when it did, and not occur during the playoffs. The Giants have got 3 very good running backs, and their QB has proven he can perform when it matters most. They've got arguably the top defensive unit in the NFC. I don't get those same feelings when I look at the other NFC teams.
Also, to point out something I like about your article. The only thing I'm not keen on about Dawkins is his age. He can definitely still play the game and proved it yesterday. I think he caused three fumbles? two of which were taken back for long TD runs? When the eagles front seven step up their secondary is a scary, scary thought.
I didn't catch the Philly beatdown, but that sounds about right. Dawkins is up there in age, but he's still a playmaker. Philly is a team that just seems to find a way to win. They will cause some problems for the teams that play them on the NFC side.
