It's the time no one's been waiting for, my 2011 Mock draft. I have to say I've probably never felt less secure in my picks than I do this year. But I feel it's my obligation to at least give it a shot this year. Again, I'll prefact this with the fact that I'm far from an expert, rather just someone who loves the draft and tries to watch as much college football and read as much info about the draft as I can. Trades are just too hard to predict so while I believe there will be a ton of them tomorrow, you won't find any in this mock. Your comments are always welcomed whether you think my picks are great or the worst you've ever seen. Anyways, here we go: 1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn-This seems to be the concensus, but for some reason I just can't completely buy it. If Newton is the pick, and the indications seem to be that he will, it is coming from the ownership IMO and not so much by Hurney who drafted Clausen in the second round last year. That doesn't mean I don't like Newton, it just doesn't feel right to me for some reason. Newton has as much upside as any QB I can remember though. There has never been a QB with skillset in the NFL and if he can learn to become a pocket passer and the Panthers build their offense specifically to his strengths he will be an excellent player. Think Big Ben's passing ability with Mike Vick's running ability with enough power to run over defensive backs and some linebackers. He's also a winner. Not many players step right into a JUCO school and single-handedly win a championship then the following year step into a SEC school and win a National Championship single-handedly. And make no mistake about that last comment. Auburn is a 7 win team at best without him. It would not shock me if they go with Green, Dareus, or Peterson here though. 2. Denver Broncos: Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama-Maybe the biggest slam dunk of the draft assuming the Panthers don't take him or unless the Broncos trade this pick to a team like the Texans looking to move up. I definitely don't buy the QB talk here with the Broncos even though I think Elway rightfully isn't very high on Tebow. Dareus might not be the player Suh was last year, but he's still an elite DT prospect and could do wonders for a Broncos defense that needs a talent like this badly. With Champ Bailey getting older you could see them go with Peterson here, who I have as the top player in the draft, but I think that's a very slim chance as Dareus seems like an almost lock. 3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M-This might be the 2nd biggest lock in my opinion. I just don't buy QB here for the Bills unless maybe Newton falls here because he would be an excellent fit in Gailey's system. As much as I hate to say it, this is a team that isn't that far off from contending for a playoff spot and I feel Fitzpatrick is good enough to get them there. Many people feel Miller is one of the safest players in the draft and his upside might be near the top as well. After the Aaron Maybin flop the Bills desperately need an eilte pass rusher and Miller certainly fits the bill (no pun intended). If it were me, the only other player I'd sniff around on is AJ Green. Green along with Stevie Johnson, Lee Evans, and CJ Spiller would give that offense a wealth of playmakers and could develop into one of the better offenses in the league if they coudl find themselves a LT somewhere. 4. Cincinnati Bengals: AJ Green, WR, Georgia-Again, I just don't see a QB here. Mike Brown isn't going to budge on the Carson Palmer deal. Maybe Palmer won't either, but I'd say it's more likely for him to back down than Brown to. Either way I think they're a stronger bet to go QB in the 2nd round or move up into the end of the 1st to get one of the next teir of QBs. Green is an elite WR prospect. I have him just below Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson when they were coming out because he doesn't quite have their speed, but he has outstanding body control and ball skills, great size, and good game speed. In my opinion, even though the WR position has high bust potential, Green is a safe pick and will be an excellent WR for years to come. Some people say they could take Julio Jones here because he fits Jay Gruden's WCO a little better, but I just don't buy that. 5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU-People have had Blaine Gabbert here for some time, but I just don't buy it. First of all they need to make free agent to be Larry Fitzgerald happy and a rookie QB who may take some time to develop probably won't sit all that well with Fitz. I don't think that's the only reason they would prefer to go with a veteran though. They have two young prospects on their team in Hall and Skelton and they think very highly of Skelton. Getting a veteran QB could get them back into the playoffs in a very weak division and would give them time to develop Skelton. Peterson is my top overall prospect and really has everything you look for in a cornerback. Size? Check. Speed? Check? Ball Skills? Check with an exclaimation point. Peterson isn't exactly a need, but I just think he's too good to pass up here and would give them an excellent pair of corners. Someone like Robert Quinn could be an option here as well and if somehow Von Miller fell here the Cardinals would probably do backflips on the way to the podium. 6. Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama-I think the Browns might prefer to see AJ Green or Patrick Peterson here, but Jones would be a nice consolation prize. The guy showed at the combine he's an athletic freak. Personally I don't believe he plays as fast as he was timed, but nonetheless he's still an excellent WR prospect who would give Colt McCoy a great weapon and would probably make Massaqua a better player as well. They could also opt to help out their defense and go with a guy like Robert Quinn as well and are rumored to be looking to move down, but my money is on Jones if they stay at the pick. 7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri-There is some doubt about whether they'd take Gabbert here, but to me it just makes too much sense. They have a QB guru in Harbaugh who in my opinion could do wonders with Gabbert's ability. Rumors are they are looking to move down and if that's the case I would like to see the Dolphins give them a call if Gabbert is indeed on the board, but for the purposes of this mock draft I have the 9ers taking Gabbert here. Their best case scenario would be Peterson falling here, but I just can't see how the best prospect in the draft falls this far. 8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn-As good as Cam Newton was on offense for the Tigers this year, Fairley was just as good at times defensively. When he's on he is an absolute force inside. There are some questions about his motor and some worry about him being a "one year wonder" but at this point in the draft you're probably not going to get another player with Fairley's upside. This could be a boom or bust pick, but it would be some kind of boom if he works out. This could be the landing spot for Gabbert or Jones if either of those two players fall as well, or they could even try and trade up for one of them. There's also some whispers about Andy Dalton, but I'd be shocked if he went even close to this high because I just don't see it with him. 9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC-It's no secret the Cowboys are looking to move down and if the Dolphins are serious about Mallett and don't think he'll get to them this could be a good match. Also if somehow Gabbert got here I can't see any way the Dolphins wouldn't at least make a call to see what it would take to get here. If the Cowboys stay here, this is where the mock gets difficult. There are rumors about Pouncey, Watt, and Smith here and I'm pretty torn between Watt and Smith, but I think Smith's upside is just too great. I can't say I'm sold on this pick, but they definitely have a need at tackle and Smith could come in and start day one on the right side and eventually could be a very good LT in the league. 10. Washington Redskins Jake Locker, QB, Washington-My first real wildcard. I don't know how much I believe in this pick, but it's just a hunch that I'm going with here. There was some talk that they were very high on him last year had he come out and there is some talk they like him still. Charlie Casserly says there are teams that have him as a top 10 pick and some that have him in the 2nd or 3rd round. Obviously he's a huge risk, but there is a belief his accuracy issues can be corrected and some have even compared him to Brett Favre. A guy like JJ Watt could also be an option here as well. 11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE, UNC-If the draft played out this way I think the Texans would be very, very happy, but would still have a tough decision on their hands. There is talk they're trying to move up for Miller or Peterson, but as great as those guys are I feel if they sit back they will be able to fill one of their pressing needs without having to give up any further compensation. The Texans have two major needs: a pass rusher and a corner. If the board falls this way I think they have to go with Quinn. They would certainly have to look at Amukamara and Jimmy Smith (who I think will go higher than many think), but an elite pass rusher like Quinn is just too hard to pass on when you need one that badly. In my opinion they'd be getting both the best player on the board and filling a major need. You can't ask for anything more. Quinn may not be a great bet to be here though, and if he's not and they still decide pass rusher is the way to go Aldon Smith will certainly be in the conversation. 12. Minnesota Vikings: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri-This pick could go in a number of directions, but ultimately I think Smith is the best player left so that's where I have them going. There is some talk about Corey Liuget too and guys like Cam Jordan, JJ Watt, Tyron Smith, Ryan Mallett, and even Jake Locker have been linked to the Vikings and all could be the pick. If it is Smith, they're getting one of the best pass rushers in the draft and a guy with as much upside as probably any player in it. With the questions about Ray Edwards' future in the twin cities they will be looking for a pass rusher. 13. Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska-I honestly really want to put Jimmy Smith's name here, but I'm taking the safer option. I do beilieve Smith is very high on many teams' draft boards and could be higher than Amukamara on some of those. An offensive lineman could be an option here as well, but I think their need at CB is too strong and both Amukamara and Smith would be great value here. 14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois-Another tough one. They'd love to get a top flight WR, but they should be long gone by the time the Rams are on the clock so then it would seem to be down to a defensive lineman. Personally I like Cameron Jordan and JJ Watt better, but the Rams are said to be high on Liuget and there is a lot of talk about him rising up draft boards possibly going as high as 12 to the Vikings. 15. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas-Who the heck knows what's going to happen here. There are so many different options. The 3 most talked about are Mike Pouncey, Mark Ingram, and a trade back. A trade back might be the most likely option, but I strongly feel if they stay at 15 you can eliminate Ingram or Pouncey. I could be way off, but I just don't see the value in either at 15. With Ingram I just don't think Sparano's philosophy of splitting carries allows you to invest this highly in a back. I also think this is one of the deepest RB classes I can remember and you should be able to get a very good back well into the 4th round and maybe later. Especially if you plan on him sharing the load. With Pouncey I just don't see how you can take a guard that high. If they trade back, both would then be in play in my opinion, but not at 15. If they stay at 15 I think the pick will either be a QB (Mallett, Gabbert, Locker, or maybe Ponder, with even some talk from Jason La Canfora about Kaepernick here), or a surprise guy on defense like a Prince Amukamara, Jimmy Smith, or Aldon Smith. I'm hoping it would be a QB rather than a defensive player personally. So after all of that, I went with Mallett. They've shown a lot of interest in him, which in the past has not necessarily meant much, but I feel they now have a good feel for the kid. He's extremely talented with a powerful, accurate arm, and even though he's slow of foot, has a good "feel" for pressure in the pocket, a characteristic all the great pocket passers have. Is he a risk? Absolutely. But the supposed "safe" route at QB has gotten the Dolphins nowhere over a long period of time. I think they take the chance here and pull the trigger. 16. Jacksonville Jaguars: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin-For me, this is between 3 players: Watt, Cameron Jordan, and Ryan Kerrigan. A lot of people seem to like Kerrigan here, and my favorite of the 3 is Jordan, but many people really like Watt and I think he goes before the other two so I have him going here. Watt is a high motor, and talented player that can play multiple positions along the line for the Jags. They could also go with a quarterback. 17. New England Patriots (from Oakland): Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal-As much as I hate to make this projection, I have to. Jordan is one of my favorite players in the draft and would be an excellent fit in New England. He is one of the few end prospects that won't have to learn a new position in a 3-4 defense coming from that front in college. JJ Watt, Kerrigan, and Mark Ingram would also get strong consideration. 18. San Diego Chargers: Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Purdue-I think the Chargers would be pretty upset to see Watt and Jordan both go right before they pick and they could trade up to make sure that doesn't happen. As it stands, they could also use a pass rusher and Kerrigan fits that bill. Kerrigan is a high motor guy in the Chris Long mode. Purdue has produced a lot of very good pass rushers in the NFL and a good number of those guys have been conversion guys. I'm not sure Kerrigan will ever be a Pro Bowler, but he should be a very solid starter for a long time and a great character guy. 19. New York Giants: Mike Pouncey, OG/OC, Florida-His brother did him a huge favor last season. He's a good prospect, but probably not as good as his brother. Either way, he will be a very good interior lineman for a long time and probably will get drafted in a similar area of the draft if not higher. They could look at Constanzo (and that's who I would take) or Carimi, but I think Pouncey is a better bet to go here. 20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado-I really think Smith ends up going much higher than this, but for these purposes I have him going here. With Aquib Talib's struggles and the news that they probably will not bring him back that leaves them with a holes at corner and while another corner with off the field concerns could scare them off, I think as teams have met with him he has eased those concerns. And if you take away all of those red flags he's an elite CB prospect and could be a huge steal here. Depending on just how severe Da'Quan Bowers' injury concerns are, he could be an option here and the reward is certainly high enough where you could justify the risk. I have heard way too much to scare me off of placing him anywhere in the 1st round though really. 21. Kansas City Chiefs: Phil Taylor, NT, BaylorSome might feel this is too high for Taylor. I think he could potentially go higher. He's a true NT in a league that doesn't have enough of them. I think they'd ideally like to get an OLB, but in a weak year for that position I just don't see Ayers or Reed going this high. 22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College-This would be a great situation for the Colts to be in. They desperately need a left tackle and at this point they'd have their pick of 3 of the top 4 of them. In my opinion Costanzo is the best of the remaining bunch so I have them picking him over Carimi and Solder. In actuality there could be a run on tackles much earlier and they may be forced to reach a bit for one of the next tackles like Sharrod. They may also see Danny Watkins as a tackle. Personally I don't. 23. Philadelphia Eagles: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin-Philly would probably love to see Jimmy Smith on the board, but I think that's a long shot. They could trade up for him, but here I have them improving their offensive line with Gabe "Mayock's Meatball" Carimi. He's a very solid tackle that could come in and help them out right away. With their need at corner they also could go with Brandon Harris who I feel is better than he's being given credit for, but Carimi is probably much higher on their board. 24. New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram, HB Alabama-Ingram may not be here, but if he is you would think the Saints wouldn't hesitate to snatch him up. He would really solidify their running game and take adantage of teams respecting Brees and that passing attack. They could also use some pass rushing help, but ultimately I think Ingram is too good to pass up if he's there. 25. Seattle Seahawks: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU-I'm cringing as I type this because I don't even think Dalton is a 2nd round QB, but everyone seems to think he's a hot prospect and Carroll is little "out there" so I'm caving and slotting him here. Another way they could look is Danny Watkins, or really a number of directions. 26. Baltimore Ravens: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple-Ozzie Newsome loves to go best player available and I think Wilkerson fits that description here. This could be a prime spot for a team looking to move up for a QB also, and they could look at a corner too but I have them taking Wilkerson who would make a very good defense even better. 27. Atlanta Falcons: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa-The Falcons are in desperate need of pass rushing to make their improving, but average defense better and take them to a championship contender level. Clayborn is a guy said to be on the rise so it's possible he's gone by this pick. They also could look at a guy like Danny Watkins. 28. New England Patriots: Christian Ponder/Colin Kaepernick (for another team)-Okay, so I said no trades, but this just seems like such a strong fit for a team trying to move up for one of these two quarterbacks, so I'm slotting either of them here for another team. Hey, it's my own rules, so I can bend them a bit. 29. Chicago Bears: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado-There might not be a team that needs offensive line help like the Bears and if Solder fell here they would probably be pretty happy about it. They would probably reach for Sharrod or Ijilana if Solder was gone. 30. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio St.-The Jets need front 7 help and were rumored to want Odrick badly last year. Heyward is a very solid prospect that some have rated much higher than this. They could look for a pass rusher like Reed or Ayers as well. 31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami-The rumor is they're trying hard to get up and get Pouncey to reunite him with his twin brother. If they fail, they could wait and get Watkins, or they could fix their CB need with a guy like Harris or Aaron Williams. Personally I like Harris more, so he's my pick. 32. Green Bay Packers: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor-The Packers have the luxury of waiting for a player to drop to them. I have them taking Watkins, but it could be a number of players. This also could be a spot for a QB trade up with teams not wanting to deal with the competition that will surely come to start on day 2. Miami Dolphins picks (assuming no trades): 1: Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas 3: Kendall Hunter, HB, Oklahoma St. 4: DJ Williams, TE, Arkansas 5: Brandon Fusco, OC/OG, Slippery Rock 6: Greg Romeus, OLB, Pitt 7: Ricardo Lockette, Fort Valley St. 7: Graig Cooper, HB, Miami 7: Josh Portis, QB, California (PA)
