A look at Dolphins playoff hopes

Would be amazing if we make the playoffs after 2-6. That would mean we end the regular season well, which is important for the playoffs.

 

Its possible. But that means they need to go at least 6-2 the rest of the way, and they need to win every home game to make that happen. The fact that two of the losses so far are against the NFC helps with regards to tiebreakers.

The way I look at it, Buffalo, KC, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston are in, period. So that leaves two WC spots for the rest of the conference to fight over, and LA, Denver, Cincinnati and Miami are the main contenders. The Broncos and Bengals have the same 2-4 AFC record as Miami, so that absolutely helps.

It starts, bare minimum, with winning these next two home games against inferior opponents, and then honestly while the Thanksgiving Night game at Green Bay will feel huge, its actually the least important one left on the schedule. Winning is always better, but if we're going to lose one, that's the one. Then, beating the Jets in Miami is vital, and if they can do that to get to 6-7, they should still be alive, and what the others do between now and then will tell us what kind of shot we have.

The Bengals and Chargers play one another this week, and we should probably root for LA. Then CIN follows that with their bye, and games against the Steelers and Cowboys, so we'll be rooting against them in both of those.

Denver unfortunately has an easier path, with the Falcons, Raiders, Browns and their bye. We really probably need for them to drop one of those or it will be an uphill battle.

The Chargers face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs, so they could even go 0-4 through there, which would put them at 6-7 if it happens.

 

I do not see this team beating the Packers or Niners...

So they would have to sweep everyone else. (To have a shot at 9-8 and then hope that is enough.)

So right now I would say the chances are 10-15% They make it.

 

Because the 49ers game is at home, I give them a chance. They are a better and tougher team than Miami, but they also have their share of injured key players, and if we can catch them at the right time we could get it done.

The Dolphins have also won the only two times that the two teams have faced off in Miami since Shula was head coach. And all time, have won all but one home game against them played in the afternoon. Having a team from California travel East is always an advantage.

And while the 49ers are one of the best coached teams in the league, there is also the possibility that they could hold out a few questionable players from our game to make sure that they're healthy when they host the Lions the next week with NFC seeding on the line. They also face AZ in the final week, which could be for their division title. So much like how the Packers game is less important to us, its pretty easy to argue that our game is the least important to SF.

 

The only problem with the theory that SF will sit starters against us.... Is that SF is not ahead of other teams in their division... They are in the middle of a dog fight... SF had a lot of injuries and lost a couple games because of it... So they are 5-4 instead of 7-2.... And they are currently a game behind the Cardinals. Even if things go better for them now that they have McCaffrey back... They will not be in a position where they can sit starters and risk losing a game down the stretch... Each game for them is too important... Divsion, playoffs, home field for one of the playoff games perhaps? All of a sudden Murray is playing lights out and the Cardinals have momentum... and a better record than the 49ers. We are getting the best of what the niners got...

 

Hey all we can do is hope. No point in looking at it expecting the worst for now.

 

I was not trying to look for the worst... I am just not expecting it to be possible for the niners to be in a position where they can sit their star players against us. Maybe if they were 8 and 1 and had a three game lead on the Cardinals in the division.

 

Not rest because they are safely ahead. Rest because winning the last two games of the season is vital, whereas winning vs us is nice. Of course, its also possible that they lose the next three vs Seattle, Green Bay and Buffalo and shut guys down because they're throwing in the towel. That would be nice too.

 

LOL

So you are allowing yourself to admit that the Dolphins need other teams to quit, for us to have a shot at the playoffs.

And I am the one that is being labelled as crazy... LOL

Come on man.

 

No, that’s not what he said. What he said, is for a fan of this team you always present yourself as a Debbie Downer. When I read your posts, you remind me of Randy Quaid in Major League 2…always dumping on the team, even when they do something well.

That’s what he said.

 

It does get a bit old, doesn’t it?

Anyway, onto topic…the Dolphins do have a path to make the playoffs. Granted, this path is as hard as a 12 mile road March up Big Mama at Fort Leonardwood.

The most certain way is to win out the season. Possible? Sure, anything is possible but not likely going to happen. If we do have any losses along the way, best to have them against the Packers or the 49ers.

Right now we are in the number 10 spot with the Bengals, Colts and Broncos ahead of us.

The Colts play the Jets. If there was ever a time for blasphemy and root for the Jets, it’s this weekend.

The Broncos face off against the Falcons. Depending on which Falcons team shows up that could bode well for us.

The Bengals face off against the Chargers. The Chargers have been playing good ball and there’s a chance the Bengals could drop that one.

We should take care of then Raiders this week. I hate that we got ourselves into this hole losing Tua for 4 games. Tough to fight your way out and depend on other games, but as I said, there is a path.

 

Yeah… part of fandom is having hope and some optimism. Objectivity and reality are good to have, but without the previous two things why be a fan? What enjoyment can a person get out of just hating the team 24/7? All of us get mad when the Dolphins play badly, and we all claim to be “done” with the team, but in a few days we’re back to hope and optimism. The 4-5 here that never say anything good, hell, only show up after a loss, are just sad people. A few are legit trolls and not even Dolphins fans, the others are just miserable human beings.

 

Just tell him that the Dolphins are going to lose to the Packers and 49ers so he shuts up.

 

The 49ers should beat them by at least 21.

 

I mean, I expect that game to be a pick-em at worst, maybe San Francisco slightly favored. The Packers are -3 right now on Thanksgiving and I don't see that spread moving unless there are significant injuries the next two weeks.

 

We know that the Dolphins aren't in a position of strength here. Even if they'd won every game that Tua missed, we'd still be almost hopelessly behind the Bills for the division, and mapping out what needed to go right to make the playoffs. But as it is, they're really behind the 8-ball, and so the options are to give up, or try to think about a good-case scenario where things go right. Assuming that a game that takes place six weeks from now, played in Miami, is hopeless makes looking at the difficult and turning it into the impossible.

If the Dolphins can manage to go 3-1 or better over the next four weeks, which they should, then we can see where we, and the other teams stand, and get a better idea of what's to come. But for now, trying to see a way forward seems the best choice.

 

This is a reasonable take.

Not, the Dolphins are factually going to lose and if you don't accept it, you're unreasonable and attacking me.

 

Just a feeling i think we drop one against the jets.. just a bad feeling the jets will take one on our asses

 

They aren't losing to the Jets at home. Week 18, the Jets will be playing their backups preparing for their next Super Bowl run in 2025.

 

I think its likely that the Jets team in Week 18 is made up largely of backups too. I really doubt we see Rodgers.

 

As it is right now, the Dolphins are #9 in the AFC seeding. Had the NY Rodgers actually won, we would be sitting at #8.

Bottom line for us as previously stated, we need to win out but looking at the remaining schedules for Indianapolis and Denver…

Denver is going to lose 2, MAYBE 3 more games against Kansas City, LA Chargers and maybe…MAYBE Vegas as divisional games are always tough.

Indianapolis is going to lose 2 more against Denver and Detroit and POSSIBLY against New England in Foxborough.

Miami can afford to comfortably lose only 1 more game to have a chance to get in but I will say this…and of course it’s a HUGE if, if the Dolphins were to win out the remainder of the season, no one is going to want to play us in the playoffs.

The teams that storm from the back of the pack and who are hot going into the playoffs are the dangerous teams.

Will it happen? We’ll see!

Fins up!!!

 

Jets have always been historically tough, but not with a healthy Tua and McD. It's a division game so they better not take it lightly, but I'll be shocked if the Dolphins don't sweep them...again.

 

The Dolphins really should sweep the Jets. They are an absolute Minneapolis, mostly peaceful protest, city burning down of a fire. Worse than any dumpster fire.

I just hope the players play with the desperation I have for this team. If we can overcome missing Tua for 4 games and make it in, that will be a true testament to the fortitude of this team.

 

If we stay strong on offense the rest of the way, and end up finishing with 9 or 10 wins but miss out, then it just is what it is. That would mean that we went 8-5 with Tua and 1-3 without him, including 8-3 against everyone other than Buffalo. I can live with that. We lick our wounds and move on to 2025.

For now, we hope that the Broncos and Colts stumble while we keep winning games. Its all we can do.

 

That has not been a debate for a while. We picked the wrong QB, period. Chargers currently have HC/QB combination we should/could have had.

Big thank you to Chris Grier.

 

The Chargers have the best defense in the league. Herbert is FINALLY having a great season. The Chargers are about .500 with him starting. Yet you think the "debate is settled".

 

Harbaugh was interested and we could have had him if Ross really wanted him here, but Ross was more loyal to his alma matter than the Dolphins and did everything posible to keep him from leaving Michigan.

Also Tua has missed more games than Herbert, and Herbert is clearly the better QB.

 

Tua and Herbert are about the same in terms of career rating. But Tua had 2 elite seasons going on a third with his 101.5 rating this year, while Herbert may finally be getting his first one. Herbert is not clearly the better QB. And neither played well in the playoffs. The debate is by no means settled.

 

I don't need stats to tell.me who the better QB is.

 

Given how wrong you've been about so many things QB related — specifically all those disproven claims about Tua not being able to do X,Y,Z, etc. — you really should care more about stats than you do. Stats with high correlations to win% are very good tools for evaluation once sample size is large enough, and we're at over 1800 attempts for Tua and over 2600 for Herbert.

Despite all your attempts to suggest Tua is a lot worse than Herbert, his performance (which is what counts) is about the same on average, and with more elite stat seasons than Herbert.

 

Tall. White. Blonde. Right handed.

People have been trained that that is what a quarterback should look like.

 

No, Tua has elite recievers and and a tailor made system designed specifically for him and to make him look good.

Herbert does not, that makes all of your stats irrelevant.

Any sane GM in the NFL would take Herbert over Tua if they had to do the 2020 draft again.

It's not a debate anymore except for Tuanon homers.

 

Who cares if Tua needs a system more specifically designed for him than Herbert does? Many great QBs needed to be in the right system to succeed. Are you going to argue a SB win is worth less if the QB needed an offense tailored to his strengths to help win the game? No, what's important is performance. And a lot of great QBs had very good WRs. Don't think only Tua benefits from that.

 

I really can't do the Tua/Herbert thing again. They're both good quarterbacks and Tua is 2-1 head to head.

They both have the same amount of playoff wins and MVP's.

 

DO NOT FOOKING HIJACK THIS THREAD INTO ANOTHER TUA THREAD!!!

This thread is for discussing the Dolphins playoff chances, not another gawd damned Tua vs Herbert thread

 

Could be a rough day for hitman. Tua balled out and Herbert is currently blowing a 21 point lead at home.