A few facts about the 09 Offensive performance

Marshall and a healthy Ronnie Brown is something to be really excited about. And all our guys who seemed to just keep converting third downs (Cam/Bess/Hartline/Louuuuuusaka!) are still here. Just have to hope Starks plays his new position well and the youngsters on defense play good enough, as well as making sure FS play improves from last year. I also thought we would have won in 2010 without an elite receiver, now that we have one what's not to be excited about? If we avoid major injuries and Henne keeps coming along I don't see how our offense doesn't play really well, it's just the defense you hope Nolan, Dansby, and company can turn around.

Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....

"finyank13 wrote:

Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....

While I see your point I don't completely agree with it. If our defense was able hold up it's end of the bargain then those long drives are awesome to watch.

"finyank13 wrote:

Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....

Many here, including myself believe that the main scheme will still be run first, with the TOP advantage...

The only difference will be, as many here think, big play capability (which means strike/scoring)...

We hope to be off the bottom of that ranking, and we will know 4 games into the season...

Those are amazing numbers...Can't wait for our #1 scoring offense next year with Henne accumulating 300+ yards per game.

OT: One can only hope the defense 180s from last year, and there's a thread about it like this one.

Stats, schmats...While it is comforting to know our offense is no longer helpless. 7-9 was the bottom line. Tony needs to coach his a$# off this year to keep his job, and there's a ton of questionmarks on defense. There's definitely a whole new level of urgency this year.

"finyank13 wrote:

Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....

Imho you are looking at that scenario in the wrong light FY, those long drives eat the clock and place the other team on the defensive, that means our young defense won't be constantly exposed to the other team's explosive players.

The average age on defense is probably around 25 yrs old with only YBell over 30y rs old among the starters, and of the remaining starters, only Crowder and Dansby have more than 2 seasons of starting experience.

Some Maxim's from FO:

Offense is more consistent from year to year than defense, and offensive performance is easier to project than defensive performance. Special teams is less consistent than either.

Nobody in the NFL understands this concept better than Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian. Both the Super Bowl champion Colts and the four-time AFC champion Buffalo Bills of the early 1990s were built around the idea that if you put together an offense that can dominate the league year after year, eventually you will luck into a year where good health and a few smart decisions will give you a defense good enough to win a championship. (As the Colts learned in January 2007, you don't even need a year, just four weeks.) Even the New England Patriots, who are led by a defense-first head coach in Bill Belichick, have been more consistent on offense than on defense since they began their run of success in 2001

Field position is fluid.

Every yard line on the field has a value based on how likely a team is to score from that location on the field as opposed to from a yard further back. The change in value from one yard to the next is the same whether the team has the ball or not. The goal of a defense is not just to prevent scoring, but to hold the opposition so that the offense can get the ball back in the best possible field position. A bad offense will score as many points as a good offense if it starts each drive five yards closer to the goal line.

A corollary to this precept: The most underrated aspect of an NFL team's performance is the field position gained or lost on kickoffs and punts. This is part of why Devin Hester has such an impact on the game, even when he isn't returning a kickoff or punt for a touchdown.

Which is "why" I've been banging the "we need a great returner to replace Ted Ginn" drum, they make life easier for the offense.

Teams with more offensive penalties generally lose more games, but there is no correlation between defensive penalties and losses. The penalty that correlates highest with losses is the False Start, and the penalty that teams will have called most consistently from year to year is the False Start.

Which is a part of the reason why I do not buy into "we need a great Wr to take advantage of the new pass interference rules", it does not equate directly to winning.

http://footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

Anywho, somewhere in Football Outsiders huge database is the statistical fact that more rookies starting on a defense equates to more losses, especially at Cb (iirc) it was something on the order of "for every 2 rookies that start on a defense 1 additional loss will be produced".

If Football Outsiders is right and defense is a inconsistent proposition, this is the year that Mike Nolan catches an uplift from our mid 20's ranked D, and the Offense improves..that would lead to big things this season..:up:

Now here is Football Outsiders view on a running offense:

You run when you win, not win when you run.

The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was devoted to debunking the myth of "establishing the run." There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.

There are two reasons why nearly every beat writer and television analyst still repeats the tired oldschool mantra that "establishing the run" is the secret to winning football games. The first problem is confusing cause and effect. There are exceptions -- usually involving the Indianapolis Colts without Bob Sanders -- but, in general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.

The second problem is history. Most of the current crop of NFL analysts came of age or actually played the game during the 1970s. They believe that the run-heavy game of that decade is how football is meant to be, and today's pass-first game is an aberration. As we addressed in an essay in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 about the history of NFL stats, it was actually the game of the 1970s that was the aberration. The seventies were far more slanted towards the run than any era since the arrival of Paul Brown, Otto Graham, and the Cleveland Browns in 1946. Optimal strategies from 1974 are not optimal strategies for today's game.

A sister statement to "you have to establish the run" is "team X is 5-1 when running back John Doe runs for at least 100 yards." Unless John Doe is ripping off six-yard gains LaDainian Tomlinson-style, the team isn't winning because of his 100-yard games. He's putting up 100-yard games because his team is winning.

And my one football maxim for the offseason is based on this:

The total quality of an NFL team is three parts offense, three parts defense, and one part special teams.

There are three units on a football team, but they are not of equal importance. Our DVOA ratings provide good evidence for this. The special teams ratings are turned into DVOA by comparing how often field position on special teams leads to scoring compared to field position and first downs on offense. After figuring out these numbers, the top ratings for special teams are roughly one-third as high as the top ratings for offense or defense.

A team has to do all three well, now typically what happens is younger, rebuilding teams have great special teams units as desire/speed/don't wanna get released equals players willing to fly down field at personal risk or maybe return a kick when they should call for a fair catch.

"But" a good team that can do those things on Specials has an edge on every opponent they play, the third leg of the stool so to speak.

That's some really good stuff Pad's!

"padre31 wrote:

Imho you are looking at that scenario in the wrong light FY, those long drives eat the clock and place the other team on the defensive, that means our young defense won't be constantly exposed to the other team's explosive players.

The average age on defense is probably around 25 yrs old with only YBell over 30y rs old among the starters, and of the remaining starters, only Crowder and Dansby have more than 2 seasons of starting experience.

Some Maxim's from FO:





Which is "why" I've been banging the "we need a great returner to replace Ted Ginn" drum, they make life easier for the offense.



Which is a part of the reason why I do not buy into "we need a great Wr to take advantage of the new pass interference rules", it does not equate directly to winning.

http://footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

Anywho, somewhere in Football Outsiders huge database is the statistical fact that more rookies starting on a defense equates to more losses, especially at Cb (iirc) it was something on the order of "for every 2 rookies that start on a defense 1 additional loss will be produced".

If Football Outsiders is right and defense is a inconsistent proposition, this is the year that Mike Nolan catches an uplift from our mid 20's ranked D, and the Offense improves..that would lead to big things this season..:up:

I am all for controlling the clock, wearing the other teams defense out, I love that game....but you need to at least be able to put fear in the DC's mind that this offense could at any moment go the distance on any play...u ask why?? human error, people panic when the unknown can and could be coming.....it is like Elsbury on the Red Sox, the guy is lighting quick, causes routine balls hit to the infielders to be errors, guys rush and make mistakes......that wasnt the case last year, and other teams knew it....

I can only harp back to last year's Indy game, did u see the look on the face's of Indy's defense in the 4th quarter, they were beaten.....Miami would construct these life sucking marvelous drives on offense, moving the chains, moving the clock, scoring.......then........Manning would score in like 3 plays......:angry:

"finyank13 wrote:

I am all for controlling the clock, wearing the other teams defense out, I love that game....but you need to at least be able to put fear in the DC's mind that this offense could at any moment go the distance on any play....that wasnt the case last year, and other teams knew it....

I can only harp back to last year's Indy game, did u see the look on the face's of Indy's defense in the 4th quarter, they were beaten.....Miami would construct these life sucking marvelous drives on offense, moving the chains, moving the clock, scoring.......then........Manning would score in like 3 plays......:angry:

The Indy game IMO doesn't help you case. we held the ball for over 3/4 of the game and scored 23 points. All the defense needed to do was stop them once and its a win, stop them 2 or more times and its a blowout.

"LandShark13 wrote:

The Indy game IMO doesn't help you case. we held the ball for over 3/4 of the game and scored 23 points. All the defense needed to do was stop them once and its a win, stop them 2 or more times and its a blowout.

Gotcha and agreed, but they didnt....again I love to pound the ball, and controling the clock, the game is always won at the LOS....however you need to able to score a TD in 3-5 plays sometimes....something they couldnt do last year......I think that changes this year...I think Miami in some games could go up 14-0 quick....long drive for a TD, stop in defense, take a shot downfield, or something breaks up underneath...

"finyank13 wrote:

I am all for controlling the clock, wearing the other teams defense out, I love that game....but you need to at least be able to put fear in the DC's mind that this offense could at any moment go the distance on any play...u ask why?? human error, people panic when the unknown can and could be coming.....it is like Elsbury on the Red Sox, the guy is lighting quick, causes routine balls hit to the infielders to be errors, guys rush and make mistakes......that wasnt the case last year, and other teams knew it....

Hartline showed that ability, oddly enough BMarsh isn't a burner, he will make his bones on man to man coverage and breaking tackles.

I can only harp back to last year's Indy game, did u see the look on the face's of Indy's defense in the 4th quarter, they were beaten.....Miami would construct these life sucking marvelous drives on offense, moving the chains, moving the clock, scoring.......then........Manning would score in like 3 plays......:angry:

Everyone speaks of two things about that game:

Crappy Defense
Ted Ginn's drop

No one mentions that Dan Carpenter missed a easy FG, if he had made that one, we were in position to kick the game winner.

It all works together FY.

"padre31 wrote:

Hartline showed that ability, oddly enough BMarsh isn't a burner, he will make his bones on man to man coverage and breaking tackles.



Everyone speaks of two things about that game:

Crappy Defense
Ted Ginn's drop

No one mentions that Dan Carpenter missed a easy FG, if he had made that one, we were in position to kick the game winner.

It all works together FY.

right it does Pads, and this year it will.....for the record, I am not a guy on here that BM is busting fade routes, I know he isnt a burner....Hartline as you said can be that guy, he possessess the perfect speed to get open, cuz his routes are so crisp u know??

For once I would LOVE to see a hurry up that goes right down the field to open a game, stick 7 on the board, play stout defense, then start chewing clock up like a ginzo eats sausage....:up:

"finyank13 wrote:

Gotcha and agreed, but they didnt....again I love to pound the ball, and controling the clock, the game is always won at the LOS....however you need to able to score a TD in 3-5 plays sometimes....something they couldnt do last year......I think that changes this year...I think Miami in some games could go up 14-0 quick....long drive for a TD, stop in defense, take a shot downfield, or something breaks up underneath...

Sounds like you and I are on the same page or at least closer to it. Marshall gives us that as does Hartline. Not to mention having a running game other teams fear. That will force a lot of 1 on 1's.

If folks stay healthy I dare teams to stack 8-9 in the box and if they don't, well I look for our running game to have many more long gains.

"LandShark13 wrote:

Sounds like you and I are on the same page or at least closer to it. Marshall gives us that as does Hartline. Not to mention having a running game other teams fear. That will force a lot of 1 on 1's.

If folks stay healthy I dare teams to stack 8-9 in the box and if they don't, well I look for our running game to have many more long gains.

Miami will have the one of the best running games in the league hands down....the Jets I think downgraded going from TJ, to LT......now can u imagine being able to control how you want to run your offense, you can pound the rock, or you can throw it too (especially now the rules allow for a more passer friendly game).....I think this offense could be the heat this year...

"finyank13 wrote:

Miami will have the one of the best running games in the league hands down....the Jets I think downgraded going from TJ, to LT......now can u imagine being able to control how you want to run your offense, you can pound the rock, or you can throw it too (especially now the rules allow for a more passer friendly game).....I think this offense could be the heat this year...

I have been bouncing back from here to Jetsnation.com and believe it or not they have epople over there that wanted to Bench Thomas Jones. 1,400 plus yards and a very solid 4.6 ypc just wasn't enough for them. I'm baffled by that man I simply don't get it.

"finyank13 wrote:

Miami will have the one of the best running games in the league hands down....the Jets I think downgraded going from TJ, to LT......now can u imagine being able to control how you want to run your offense, you can pound the rock, or you can throw it too (especially now the rules allow for a more passer friendly game).....I think this offense could be the heat this year...

Especially if Hartline can take the next step. 2 Legit Outside threats with Bess and Cam in the slot, with R&R running the rock. That's not to shabby. Now if Fesano can return to his 2008 form. Then hell's ya bro its going to be a fun season to be a Fan!

"Pandarilla wrote:

Stats, schmats...While it is comforting to know our offense is no longer helpless. 7-9 was the bottom line. Tony needs to coach his a$# off this year to keep his job, and there's a ton of questionmarks on defense. There's definitely a whole new level of urgency this year.

only stat that matters...did you win?

^^^ Amen!

And the real key is using your players properly, all of them!

We talk of Ronnie being healthy yet I've only seen him used properly one year and even then he wasn't used right in the begining, in 2007 under Cam. Lord knows though when he was let loose he was headed to the pro bowl til he got hurt and how he was used isn't the reason he was hurt either! And for the record, no, this FO/HC hasn't used him right either for all of his WC glory!

"LandShark13 wrote:

I have been bouncing back from here to Jetsnation.com and believe it or not they have epople over there that wanted to Bench Thomas Jones. 1,400 plus yards and a very solid 4.6 ypc just wasn't enough for them. I'm baffled by that man I simply don't get it.

I mean the OL determines alot about the overall running game of that team, but LT is a wuss, and will get crushed in the AFC EAST going between the tackles....TJ had the body, and the makeup, LT doesnt....

"finyank13 wrote:

Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....

While I completely agree that we need more quick strike plays, your last statement is crazy. If you are on the field for multiple long drives AND you have a defense that can make stops consistently, then you will scare people. Unfortunately, until proven otherwise, our defense lets us down.

Really? A whole other separate "we didn't really need Brandon Marshall" thread? Ok.

Here's are 3 more facts:

7-9

Our team wasn't good enough in 2009.

Brandon Marshall makes us better.