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A Chad Henne Comparison

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Steve-Mo, Apr 25, 2010.

  1. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    I'm going to start this off by stating that I'm a Henne fan. Obviously, I hope he succeeds as our starter and he is by far the most promising quarterback that's arrived in Miami the last 10+ years. However, I can't help but be a little iffy on him. Should we be sold on him? I know many of you are, but let's take a look at some stats.

    274/451 (60.8%), 6.4 YPA, 2,878 YDS, 12 TD, 14 INT - 75.2 QBR

    Those are Henne's stats from last year, his 2nd year.

    245/374 (65.5%), 7.2 YPA, 2,699 YDS, 11 TD, 10 INT - 85.4 QBR

    These are Trent Edwards stats from his 2nd year. Notice that, yes, he had less attempts, but also superior YPA average, much better completion percentage, and was only 1 TD away from matching Henne. We all know that Edwards now sits behind Fitzpatrick in Buffalo now.

    267/441 (60.5%), 6.7 YPA, 2,941 YDS, 15 TD, 10 INT - 82.2 QBR

    Bryon Leftwich put up these stats in Jacksonville his 2nd year. Very similar in completions/attempts/completion percentage. Two years later, Leftwich was backing up in Atlanta, and has traveled to Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and I belive back to Pittsburgh.

    198/368 (53.8%), 6.6 YPA, 2,423 YDs, 13 TD, 8 INT - 77.1 QBR

    Believe it or not, these stats were put up by JaMarcus Russel in his 2nd year. Awful completion percentage, much lower than Henne's. This guy in on the verge of surpassing Ryan Leaf as the biggest bust in NFL history just one year later.

    On the other end of the spectrum we have Drew Brees, once again, in his 2nd year:

    320/526 (60.8%), 6.2 YPA, 3,284 YDS, 17 TD, 16 INT - 76.9 QBR

    Eerily similar to Henne's stats. If Henne had played all 16 games, I wouldn't be surprised if his stats were extremely close to these. But even after the next season the Chargers weren't sold on him and drafted Eli Manning and traded him with the Giants for Phillip Rivers and picks.

    This just shows how we really just don't know yet, Henne could blossom into the next Dan Marino in the coming years, or become the next Trent Edwards. What are your thoughts? What do you think separates Henne from the first three QBs?

    (Again, this thread is not meant to bash Henne. This is the offseason, and I'm merely wanting to read your thoughts on this. I'm also new here, this may have been discussed to death before, if so I apologize.)
     
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  2. peakz

    peakz New Member

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    I don't think we're really gonna be able to see until this season where he has some valid targets.
    Before Henne stepped in last year the Dolphins were primarily a running team and Henne stepped in and gave them another direction.
    I don't think he did half bad with those stats and our go-to man being Ted Ginn, let's see what he can do with Marshall :)
     
  3. TheMarshall

    TheMarshall New Member

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    Well henne is different then all of those players and also you cant forget none of those guys really had a number 1 receiver like Brandon Marshall
     
  4. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    How is Henne different than them?

    While I do believe we should see a vast improvement with Marshall now on the squad, what you said really doesn't make sense to me. All those guys had a average/below average set of receivers except for Edwards with Evans. And they put up in most cases BETTER stats than Henne with average/below average receivers.

    EDIT: After reading again, I see where you're going with that.
     
  5. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    I don't read much into stats.You have to remember that Henne was thrown into the fire when Penny went down last year.
    What's more important,and what people don't seem to mention is when that happened,Henne didn't have that source of information on the sideline to help him through the difficult times.He had to learn and adjust on the fly and he did an admirable job for his first year under the helm.
    Now, take into consideration that Penny is back to mentor him in gametime situations on the bench,Henne had an off season to fix his flaws,he's going in as the starter, has the first year jitters under his belt,and was given a true #1 target.....I have a feeling C.H. will do a great job for us next year.
     
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  6. Caps

    Caps Movimiento Juvenil

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    I'd like to know how much game experience those other guys had going into their second years vs. Henne with no game time except garbage duty against the Cards in 08 and 13 games (it's a sign!) started in 09.
     
  7. SeanP

    SeanP Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, thats just the thing. It's impossible to compare his "year 2" numbers to anyone else because he was thrown in to the fire. He had to play in a system developed for Pennington (but modified mid season for Henne), and play with Receivers he had probably limited practices with. Not to mention overcome first year stage fright, of which he did a good job.

    Will he be the next Dan Marino, more than likely not. But I think he'll be a serviceable top 5-10 QB in the league. And thats all you can really ask for.

    You also have to consider how much butterfingers Ginn and his drops/caused ints factored into that. I'm not trying to blame his passer rating on Ginn, but you have to admit that we SHOULD see a rather large improvement given the addition of Marshall this year.
     
  8. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    Henne threw 12 passes & was a 4 year starter at Michigan.
    Brees threw 27 passes in his rookie year & started 3 years.
    Russell threw 66 & appears to have started 2 1/2 years.
    Edwards passed 269 times & looks like 2 years.
    Leftwich threw 418 times & I can't find a college profile.
     
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  9. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    This happens with every QB on every team.
     
  10. Caps

    Caps Movimiento Juvenil

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    Good info, so it looks like a fair comparison would be Brees and Russell and it really takes a left turn from there. Talk about two ends of the spectrum :lol:

    My amateur scouting opinion of Chad Henne is that it will be a miracle for him to play at an elite level in the NFL (though the pieces we put around him may make him look elite if we're lucky) but I would be very surprised if in two or three years he's not being discussed as a top 10 QB in the league.
     
  11. FinsAreLife

    FinsAreLife Well-Known Member

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    Im not so sure you can make those real comparisons yet. The third year always seems to be the telling year for a QB, either he will hit a wall and end up like the Qbs you mentioned or he will take off and be our starter for years to come.
     
  12. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Well we have to remember those guys went into training camp as the starters and they were able to get 1st team reps the whole time. They played 16 games while Henne hasn't played a 16 game season yet. Henne has those stats in less games. Also, there was this receiver we had last year who I won't name. His drops lowered Henne's completion percentage and increased his interception total.
     
  13. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    Yeah, I'm just throwing these out here. I'm a stats guy, and I noticed these guys had similar yards and ratings so I wanted to stack them against each other. You are 100% correct on the 3rd year being the telling year for the most part. I'm anxious to see the offense this year!
     
  14. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    I agree that starting out in training camp is a huge plus, however none of those guys started 16 games, but Brees.

    Again, I did not watch every game for these quarterbacks in this year, but it's safe to assume they had a fair amount of drops, as well, especially Leftwich.
     
  15. ascii

    ascii People Watcher

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    To me, the question becomes, do I think the Dolphins could win a superbowl with Chad Henne at QB?

    From last year, I'd say it looks like they could. We'll have a much better picture after this year.
     
  16. dukane5

    dukane5 New Member

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    I would say yes. If some of our new additions to defense pan out and Henne is able to develop a relationship with Marshall...we will surprise many doubters. Pennington being on the sideline as a backup and coach to Henne is huge and we have a very good running game and offensive line. The pieces are coming together. Henne has the 'it' factor that so many draft experts talk about. What he did in the Jets game last year...cool under pressure showed he can lead in big games and come out on top. He made big gains in his first season under center and I believe will continue to grow (as will our win total!).
     
  17. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think a big part of a QB's success is dependent on the situation. IMO if Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers had their roles reversed, we'd be talking about how good Smith is and about whether or not SF should be sticking with Rodgers another year.

    Obviously, you need a certain amount of talent and hard work, but you also need the right environment and the right supporting cast. IMO Henne showed that he has enough talent and I believe that he'll work hard. But I thought it was imperative that we add a #1 WR this off-season. (I wish we had also added a seam splitting TE). If we had not added Marshall then I think the odds were high that we go into next season asking if Henne is good enough. Since we did add Marshall I think the odds are much higher that we'll go into next season saying that at least we know that QB is not a need.
     
  18. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    let them compete: Henne, Pennington & Thigpen
    if the IceMan is to step up
    & claim his Franchise Title @ QB, it's now or never
    talk is cheap, the guy has had & has every advantage
    we need the Franchise QB to make a run on the BigEnchilada
    one of the three will claim the crown this year

    just do it!:dolphin:
     
  19. Georgia Fin

    Georgia Fin Fin For Life

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    Brandon Marshall made Kyle Orton look good and honestly, Henne looked way better than Orton did any other year in Chicago. Get your popcorn ready and get ready to see the deep ball like we haven't seen since Marino with Henne and Marshall!!!!
     
  20. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    Off-topic: I just watched the movie your sig and avatar refer to for the first time in many years. :lol:
     
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  21. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Stats lie. They make no differentiaton between Ted Ginn tipping a perfectly thrown ball right into Sharper's hands for a pick six and Henne making bonehead throws into underneath coverage vs. Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Theyre all just INTs in the stat book so you really have to watch the games if you want to get an understanding of how Henne played/didnt play.

    IMO Henne played well last year, VERY well considering his circumstances. He was a first time starter, who didnt recieve first team reps and wasnt expected to recieve significant playing time. His reps were even lower than a normal backup QB b/c of the time devoted to the Wildcat/Pistol packages. His WRs and TEs were arguably the worst in the league. Henne's saving grace was a solid run game and OL that allowed him time to scan downfield, especially on play action, which was used extensively.

    Everyone knows Henne has a big arm, but Im more impressed with his accuracy. He's able to put velocity on the ball without spraying his throws a la Donovan McNabb. Of course he throws too many rocket balls, especially to backs and TE's but that is correctable.

    What impressed me most was Henne's leadership and courage. He stood in the pocket and made pinpoint throws against heavy pressure all year long. I never saw Henne get rattled by pressure. When Pat Chung blasted him with a nasty helmet to helmet hit under his chinstrap, Henne got up and went back to the huddle. No laying down, no complaining to the ref, no looking to the sidelines, no sign whatsoever that he'd even been hit. Thats the kind of thing that earns respect in the huddle/lockerroom & gets guys to play harder for you. Very impressive for a player in his first year as a starter.

    Breaking down Henne's INTs.

    1. Pick six @ San Diego (FS buzzed underneath the throw) 4th qtr losing
    2. Pick 6 vs Nawlins (Ginn drops perfect ball) 3rd qtr winning
    3. Pick 6 vs Nawlins (desperation heave on 4th & 13 late in 4th)
    4. vs Tampa (bone head INT w/ lead late in 4th/ LB buzzed underneath throw)
    5. @ Buffalo (arm hit on throw, ball flutters short) 4th qtr losing
    6. @ Buffalo (tipped ball @ LOS, ball goes short) 4 qtr losing
    7. @ Buffalo (desperation throw into coverage) 4 qtr losing
    8. vs NE (forced deep ball to Bess/ overthrow straight to FS) 2nd qtr losing
    9. @ Jax (bonehead INT w/ lead late in 4th qtr/CB dropped under neath the throw)
    10. @ Tenn (ill advised throw while being sacked late in 1st half)
    11. @ Tenn (50/50 ball in EZ to Ricky, S made a good play) 4th qtr losing
    12. @ Tenn (slight overthrow on dig to Bess in OT/ may have been tipped @ line)
    13. vs Houston (check down to Ricky, tipped in air to LB) 2nd qtr losing
    14. vs Pitt (corner route, underneath corner buzzes underneath throw) 2nd qtr losing

    14 picks is 14 ppicks but its not like Henne was reckless w/ the ball by any means. Only 4 of the INTs were what I would call bad decisions, the rest were bad luck & drops. There were 4-5 other passes that shouldve been INTs, so that should be considered as well. Miami led the league in rushing TDs. Once we were in the red zone, it was the power run game that we went to, and that hurt Henne's TD numbers. Of course not having a red zone target to throw to factored in also. Most importantly, he was 7-3 as a starter until the 3 game losing streak to end the season.

    Add a year of experience, an off season as the number one guy, a chance for Henning to redesign the offense around Henne's strengths, and of course Brandon Marshall, and I think Henne has a good chance to avoid the sophomore slump and even improve this year.
     
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  22. TheAnswer385

    TheAnswer385 Stay Low Run Free

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    I'm sure someone already mentioned this but don't forget the monstrous schedule we had last year.
     
  23. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    Finally, a really really excellent post. Thanks for breaking down the interceptions, I didn't bother trying to hunt them all down on the 'tube. :up:
     
  24. The Dude

    The Dude Anti Jet

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    I think its pretty much set in stone that Henne is our starter and our future. Marshall and company can only do so much with Pennintons arm. Thigpen is a solid backup, that has potential to win games if Henne gets "poked in the eye" again.
     
  25. Phinatic425

    Phinatic425 MIA State of Mind

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    Did Trent Edwards start his rookie year as well? Because if he did you should be comparing his rookie stats to Henne's 2nd year stats (first year starting)
     
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  26. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    9 games, yes. 151/269 (56.1%), 1,630 YDS, 6.1 YPA, 7 TDS, 8 INT.

    And no, I don't think I should. Henne had a year to back up and learn to play quarterback by that time (as did Brees & Russell who started 1 game). Rookie vs. 2nd year isn't as fair as 2nd year vs. 2nd year, even if they were on the bench during games as a rookie.

    While game time experience obviously helps, people seem to underestimate all of the time QBs, as well as other positions, practice getting better throughout the year.

    The point of using those stats was to demonstrate where they were at this exact point in their career.
     
  27. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    Anyone brave enough to break down Mark Sanchez's picks?
     
  28. Phinatic425

    Phinatic425 MIA State of Mind

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    True about Henne learning from CP10 but that can't fully prepare you for actually starting...Especially with the hardest schedule in the league.
     
  29. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    One stat that isn't listed...Chad Henne had 3 game winning drives last season. Two coming against the division.
     
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  30. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    This is true, I think. All together the average record of a team they faced was 9-7, and the average of the teams Henne faced was 8-8. I'm not sure what is average.
     
  31. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    True. But I'm not looking through the gamecenters on the guys I listed to see how many game winning drives they had. :lol:
     
  32. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Well my point was that Henne has all the tools and ability, and proved he could come through in the clutch. I didn't watch every game Edwards played his 2nd season but I did watch every game Henne played and he showed everything you want in a franchise QB, and will get even better.
     
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  33. Steve-Mo

    Steve-Mo 'Saban' Guy

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    Actually, I decided to do this for Leftwich, and in his first game he threw a game winner to beat the Bills with no time left (the 1st highlight of that game if you click the link is Leftwich firing a pass that goes through Jimmy Smiths hands and is picked off). I'm going to go through the whole season and edit this post, just for the sake of occupying myself. Week 3 - game winning drive against Titans, Week 6 game winning TD against Chiefs, Week 7 game winning drive against Colts, Week 17 game winning drive against Raiders.

    I agree.
     
  34. VA_Finfan

    VA_Finfan New Member

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    You also have to take into consideration that 2009 was technically his rookie season. He was in the league for 2 years but didn't start until 4 games into the season.
     

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