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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finserg, Jan 9, 2008.
yeah, i forgot.. I should just delete that comment before everyone and their mothers see it
IMO, QB rating is the most important stat when evaluating a QB. But it isn't without its faults. It has a TD thrown rate, but it doesn't include scrambling touchdowns. It weighs passing yards by YPA, but it doesn't factor in rushing yards or rushing attempts. It also leaves out sacks and fumbles lost. QB rating basically makes a QB that never throws the ball away and almost always opts to take the sack (which results in a higher completion %) look better than what he really is (see Daunte Culpepper).
If I were to adjust QB rating, I'd do it like this:
Completions+rushing attempts/passing attempts+rushing attempts + the number of sacks X.05 (completion % part of the formula)
Passing yards+rushing yards-sack yardage lost/passing attempts+rushing attempts+the number of sacks X.25 (YPA part of the formula)
Passing touchdowns+rushing touchdowns/passing attempts+rushing attempts X.2 (TD part of the formula)
Interceptions+fumbles lost/passing attempts+rushing attempts+number of times sacked X.25 (Interception/turnover part of the formula)
One thing I really like about Anderson is his willingness to throw the ball away, his completion % suffers because of this, but it makes him a better QB. In 666 career drop backs, he's been sacked only 22 times.
i prefer DVOA over QB rating
The same way NFL GM's do:
How old is he?
How much experience does he have?
What type of arm strength does he have?
How big of a need is he in relation to your team?
When he played against NFL teams, how well did he read NFL defenses?
What type of supporting cast did he have and what type of situation would he be walking into on your team?
What is the current market like, are there other QB's to choose from?
Does he make mental mistakes?
Is he injury prone?
Does he have room to improve?
Is he a good character guy?
How does he fit your system?
No GM would ever say "Gee, if Anderson was in this years draft he would whoop the competition. Matt Ryan wouldn't stand a friggin chance!!! I think he'd go first overall because he's better than any of the QB's coming out, so that means he's worth the #1 pick. Yee haw!!". They don't evaluate NFL talent that way, they evaluate current NFL players like I listed above (How would he fit the system, is he a smart player that can read plays, how big of a need is he, etc).
Your argument is totally flawed because you are trying to compare the known (Anderson) with the unknown (this years rookie class). If NFL GM's knew that Tom Brady was going to turn out to be a great QB, you bet your backside that they would have drafted him #1 overall. But if the team that held the #1 pick in 2000 sent the commisioner to the podium to announce that Tom Brady is the #1 pick based on what they knew at the time (Tom Brady was a 6th rounder BTW), he would have been laughed at by his peers, booed out of the building, fans would have called for his head and he probably would have lost his job. Hindsight is 20/20 and it's easy to look back and say "Hey, Brady was the best player out of that draft", but noone at the time knew it.
The draft is a guessing game, teams spend thousands of hours scouting players, evaluating players, ranking players, etc and they hope when they make their pick that they get lucky and the guy they choose can be the player that they THINK they are getting. If the draft were as easy as you make it appear and teams could look into the future to see how a player will do, every #1 pick would be the best player, the #2 pick would be the 2nd best player and on down the line. It doesn't work that way.
You can't compare a player with NFL experience to a player without NFL experience to determine who would go higher in the draft and how much they should be traded for. It's silly. You determine how much an existing NFL player is worth by how old he is, how smart he is, how well he handles pressure on the NFL level, how well he reads a defense, etc, etc, etc.
Agreed, can't say much more than that.
Meh I have been saying this is happening for weeks.
This is how it's gonna work:
Our #1 for Dallas 2 firsts, and Marion Barber
We use one of those firsts for Anderson.
I might as well put it in my sig....................................
Why would Dallas trade their Top 5 RB and 2 1st rounders to us? So they could take a big chance, cross their fingers and hope that McFadden turns into the next Adrian Peterson? They would be foolish to make that type of deal. McFadden could turn into Reggie Bush, a TON of hype and not live up to it. Then where would Dallas be?
Yeah you wouldn't trade two first rounders and a great young back just to draft a runningback and pay him what would be more than Barber makes now.
Exactly, people are taking a simple fact like the Jerry Jones/Arkansas connection and blowing it all out of proportion. Dallas will not trade Barber and they have no interest in McFadden, 'nuff said.
I'm not surprised by this in the least. When you consider the fact that Atlanta got what they did for Schaub, I kinda figured their asking price for Anderson would be high.
That may be their price, but that's not one Miami's going to take.. Not as long as Bill Parcells has a say.
Seems that everyone has an opinion on a VET QB for us... I submitted a post a wekk or so ago that discussed who was available and if my memory serves me correctly, very few could agree on the same guy...
Now I am not saying that those opinions aren't valid as many made good arguments to why they supported so-n-so... However, my position on this is 1 thing only. The VET we get isn't 40 years old and that VET can easily slide into the system that we run on offense. He also needs a passer rating of 75 and above...
or they could just say "will he be better than whomever we could take with that pick?"
Or they could go play 2 seasons of Madden to see how high his ratings go and then use that as a guide.
Your argument is seriously flawed, NFL GM's don't evaluate talent that way.
Or they could flip a coin.....errr actually that one did work for Cleveland in the end.