5 reasons Miami SHOULD NOT go after Vincent Jackson

Well the fair price question is the big question, just how much is a large contract? I mean he should get quite a raise, he's put up some pretty big numbers, however, his off the field issues would suggest investing a huge sum up front isn't a great idea. I don't know, the front office would need to get creative. I don't think a 2nd rounder for him is unfair, he's as talented as any receiver in this draft and has actually played good at the NFL level, and he's young. He's a risk, theres no doubt about that but he's a high reward player too so you have to consider it.

 

Yea let's not go after him because our WRs are are so much better then him he would just make us worse. Really the only reason we won't go after him is because he is a RFA and it would cost a 1 and 3 to het him.

 

counterpoint to your own thread
maybe the next one you start should be five reasons to go after VJ

 

#6 We have Chad Henne as our Quarterback.....not Philip Rivers

 

no worries really
we are taking different paths on this one but heading in the same direction
vincent jackson wont be a dolphin

 

So what? Does that mean we can't go after Boldin either?

San Diego's offense always centered around Gates and the Screen passes. I think V. Jackson would thrive in Miami's offense with Henne throwing him the ball.

 

yea ok so chad henne is our QB so we dont need a big target for him. we can just keep the WR we have to Chad Henne can be like all the other QBs we have has since Dan Marino

 

Colmax, here's the post by Nabocane that did that SB positional analysis. My numbers were off. They were actually higher for WRs. I added parts from another later analysis he did at the bottom to include DEs and Gs.

http://forums.thephins.com/showthread.php?t=27414&highlight='SB+positional+analysis"

SB Positional Analysis: Wide Receivers
Talk about a shocker...


Quote:
Super Bowl Winners – Wide Receivers
(Players in blue are HOF)

XLIII - 2008: Pittsburgh Steelers:
Hines Ward (7-time Pro-Bowler) *
(The Steelers use three TEs in their base formation)

XLII - 2007: NY Giants:
Plaxico Burress (none)
Amani Toomer (none)

XLI - 2006: Indy Colts:
Reggie Wayne (3-time Pro-Bowler) *
Marvin Harrison (8-time Pro-Bowler) *

XL - 2005: Pittsburgh Steelers:
Antwaan Randle El (none)
Hines Ward (see 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers) *

XXXIX - 2004: NE Patriots:
David Givens (none)
Deion Branch (none)

XXXVIII - 2003: NE Patriots:
David Givens (none)
Troy Brown (Pro-Bowler) *

XXXVII - 2002: Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Keyshawn Johnson (3-time Pro-Bowler) *
Keenan McCardell (2-time Pro-Bowler) *

XXXVI - 2001: NE Patriots:
Troy Brown (See 2003 NE Patriots *)
David Patten (none)

XXXV - 2000: Baltimore Ravens:
Qadry Ismail (none)
Brandon Stokley (none)

XXXIV - 1999: St. Louis Rams:
Torry Holt (7-time Pro-Bowler) *
Isaac Bruce (4-time Pro-Bowler) *

XXXIII - 1998: Denver Broncos:
Ed McCaffrey (Pro-Bowler) *
Rod Smith (3-time Pro-Bowler) *

XXXII - 1997: Denver Broncos:
Ed McCaffrey (see above) *
Rod Smith (see above) *

XXXI - 1996: Green Bay Packers:
Andre Rison (4-time Pro-Bowler) *
Antonio Freeman (Pro-Bowler) *

XXX - 1995: Dallas Cowboys:
Kevin Williams (none)
Michael Irvin (HOF; 5-time Pro-Bowler) *

XXIX - 1994: SF Forty-Niners:
Jerry Rice (13-time Pro-Bowler) *
John Taylor (2-time Pro-Bowler)*

XXVIII - 1993: Dallas Cowboys:
Michael Irvin (see 1995 Dallas Cowboys) *
Alvin Harper (none)

XXVII - 1992: Dallas Cowboys:
Michael Irvin (see 1995 Dallas Cowboys) *
Alvin Harper (see above)

XXVI - 1991: Washington Redskins:
Art Monk (HOF; 3-time Pro-Bowler) *
Gary Clark (4-time Pro-Bowler) *

XXV - 1990: NY Giants:
Mark Ingram (none)
Stephen Baker (none)

XXIV - 1989: SF Forty-Niners:
Jerry Rice (see 1994 SF Forty-Niners) *
John Taylor (see 1994 SF Forty-Niners) *

XXIII - 1988: SF Forty-Niners:
Jerry Rice (see 1994 SF Forty-Niners) *
John Taylor (see 1994 SF Forty-Niners) *

XXII - 1987: Washington Redskins:
Ricky Sanders (none)
Gary Clark (see 1991 Washington Redskins) *

XXI - 1986: NY Giants:
Lionel Manuel (none)
Stacy Robinson (none)

XX - 1985: Chicago Bears:
Willie Gault (none)
Dennis McKinnon (none)

XIX - 1984: SF Forty-Niners:
Freddie Solomon (Pro-Bowler) *
Dwight Clark (2-time Pro-Bowler) *

XVIII - 1983: LA Raiders:
Cliff Branch (4-time Pro-Bowler) *
Malcolm Barnwell (none)

XVII - 1982: Washington Redskins:
Alvin Garrett (none)
Charlie Brown (2-time Pro-Bowler) *

XVI - 1981: SF Forty-Niners:
Freddie Solomon (see 1984 SF Forty-Niners) *
Dwight Clark (see 1984 SF Forty-Niners) *

XV - 1980: Oakland Raiders:
Cliff Branch (see 1983 LA Raiders) *
Bob Chandler(none)

XIV - 1979: Pittsburgh Steelers:
John Stallworth (HOF; 4-time Pro-Bowler) *
Lynn Swann (HOF; 3-time Pro-Bowler) *

XIII - 1978: Pittsburgh Steelers:
John Stallworth (see above) *
Lynn Swann (see above) *

XII - 1977: Dallas Cowboys:
Butch Johnson (none)
Drew Pearson (4-time Pro-Bowler) *

XI - 1976: Oakland Raiders:
Cliff Branch (see 1983 LA Raiders) *
Fred Biletnikoff (HOF; 6-time Pro-Bowler) *

X - 1975: Pittsburgh Steelers:
Frank Lewis (Pro-Bowler) *
Lynn Swann (see 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers) *

IX - 1974: Pittsburgh Steelers:
Frank Lewis (Pro-Bowler) *
Mike Wagner(Pro-Bowler) *

VIII - 1973: Miami Dolphins:
Paul Warfield (HOF; 8-time Pro-Bowler) *
Howard Twilley (none)

VII - 1972: Miami Dolphins:
Paul Warfield (see above) *
Marlin Briscoe (Pro-Bowler) *

VI - 1971: Dallas Cowboys:
Bob Hayes (HOF; 3-time Pro-Bowler) *
Lance Alworth (7-time Pro-Bowler)*

V - 1970: Baltimore Colts:
Eddie Hinton (none)
Roy Jefferson (3-time Pro-Bowler) *

IV - 1969: KC Chiefs:
Frank Pitts (none)
Otis Taylor(2-time Pro-Bowler) *

III - 1968: NY Jets:
Don Maynard (HOF; 5-time Pro-Bowler) *
George Sauer, Jr.(4-time Pro-Bowler) *

II - 1967: Green Bay Packers:
Boyd Dowler(2-time Pro-Bowler) *
Carroll Dale(3-time Pro-Bowler) *

I - 1966: Green Bay Packers:
Boyd Dowler(see above) *
Carroll Dale(see above) *
The basics:
43 Super Bowl Winners
85 possible WR roster positions

What the chart tells us:

36 of 43 Super Bowl Winners had at least ONE Pro Bowl Wide Receiver;
That’s 84%.

22 of 43 Super Bowl winners had TWO Pro Bowl Wide Receivers;
That’s 51%

Of the 85 available subject roster positions, 59 were populated by Pro-Bowlers;
That’s 69%.

Compared to:
Safeties: 35 of 43/81% — 16 of 43/37% — 55 of 86/64%
Tailbacks: 31 of 43 / 72%
Centers: 29 of 43 / 68%.
Tight Ends: 24 of 43 / 56%
Cornerbacks: 30 of 43/70% — 11 of 43/26% — 41 of 86/48%
Quarterbacks: 41 of 43/95%
Offensive Tackles: 34 of 43/79% — 12 of 43/28% — 47 of 85/55%
Wide Receivers: 36 of 43/84% — 22 of 43/51% — 59 of 85/69%
Guards: 29 of 43/67% — 6 of 43/14% — 36 of 86/42%
Defensive Ends: 37 of 43/86% — 16 of 43/37% — 53 of 86/62%

 

Mt order of preference is Marshall, Austin, Boldin and then Jackson. all depending on the actual details tho. But, either one should really lift this team.

edit: Switch Boldin and Jackson. Either of the first 3 is satisfactory, IMO.

 

Did you read the fine print on the link you provided? They limited it to "first team all-pro". He was also a second team all pro selection in 2002, 2003, 2004. Not that it really matters though.

It also doesn't really matter whether they received the pro bowl selection in that year. The point of using the pro bowler designation was to have a bright line definition of "good player". It would be impossible to create a list of good players that everyone would agree on. It is not a perfect definition b/c there are players who make it just on reputation and there are deserving players who get snubbed. But as a general rule players who are pro bowlers are "good players".

So I disagree that it doesn't support the point. IMO it does so very well. There are certain positions where having good players is more correlated with winning Super Bowls and those top 5 positions are QB, DE, WR, S. LT.

 

Crazy comparison.

Randy Moss has also played 6 more years in the NFL than Jackson, and you are comparing VJ to Moss, who is a top 3 WR in the NFL. NFL offenses are also designed around Randy Moss, and have been for a few years. Moss has also had Brady and Culpepper in pass first offenses chucking to him for a decade. VJ is just hitting the start of his prime whereas Randy's been in it for almost a decade.

IIRC, a few years ago, wasnt San Diego a run 1st team? Didnt Tomlinson have 30+ total touchdowns a few years ago. Rivers broke out in 2008. And prior to that, its going to be hard to put up good numbers when your RB is scoring 30+ TDs, having around 2000 total yard seasons, and getting 400+ total touches a season. San Diego's offense has been built around running the ball and Tomlinson in Jackson's early years.

A better comparison is Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, or other WRs in their mid 20s.

 

Thats what people said last year about Boldin. Instead we kept that 2nd rounder and we have Pat White and no #1 WR.

Say we sign a WR as a free agent. He's going to get a large contract. Lets not be cheap here, a #1 WR should get paid like a #1 WR. Everyone wants a #1 WR on a kickers contract. But thats not reality. 10 million is the franchise tag for WRs. So figure the top 5 WRs in the NFL should make 10 million. I dont know if I would put Jackson as a top 5 WR, but definately a top 10 WR. So if you have to pay him 8-9 million a year, thats on par with where he ranks in the NFL vs. what the top WRs get paid.

And if you think its the draft pick that makes him not worth it, remember what we got for a 2nd rounder in past years. John Beck? Satele? Pat White? Culpepper? AJ Feely? I'd gladly trade any of those 2nd rounders for the ability to acquire a top 10 WR just entering his prime.

Now if its a 1st and a 3rd and San Diego puts the high RFA tender on him, then no thanks. I think thats too much. But for a 2nd rounder....... Id seriously consider it.

 

i think what he is driving at is that pro bowlers were playing in the super bowl. What year they made the PB is pretty irrelevant as being a PBer, past present or future simply means that the particular player is in a little better class than most. What is a player made 2 consecutive PBs and then played in the SB while not a PBer yet makes the PB again the following year. Would you think that matters any? just because a perennial PBer misses one year doesn't mean his production has fallen off any and after all, I don't think it's whether the WRs are PBers or not or is even the point but rather the production these guys bring. PB is pretty much a popularity contest anyway but by saying X amount of SBs are won with so many PBers isn't the point but rather the production they bring which is really where it's at anyway.

 

You could go with current year pro bowlers, but that would be just as flawed b/c many make it on rep and many having great years don't get in b/c they don't have the rep yet. Going by just current year guys would result in a very narrow list and exclude many very good players.

And yes you could have guys with diminishing skills still making but even those guys would still be very good players. It's pretty rare that a player who isn't at least currently a top 10 receiver (or any other position) in the conference makes the pro bowl. And among that list you had very few if any guys who were way past being very good players at the time their team won the SB.

The point still stands that Super Bowl winning teams tend to have very good players at certain positions and one of the most common such positions is WR. It is very rare that teams win SBs without having a WR on the roster without pro bowl credentials.

 

Wasn't Moss a disruption in Minn while there? A 4th for that situation was better than Minn getting nothing for him.

 

There was no bait.

My point was San Diego didnt go from a run first offense, to a more pass oriented offense overnight. Even after Rivers breakout year, Jackson wasnt the focal point of that offense. You are also ignoring the passing yards that LT catches in those 2 years and the 50+ receptions and 60+ targets he got in their passing offense. The screen game and RBs catching the ball out of the backfield is a big part of their passing offense. Their passing game has been the focus of their offense for the past 2 years, yet you are comparing him to a guy who has been the focal point of his teams offense for a decade. Its a comparison, but a silly one. Of course Randy Moss is going to have better career numbers, I dont think anyone thinks otherwise.

Also, you seem to be harping on "multiple TD games". Since when is that a tell-tale comparable stat? Put a star WR on a team who doesnt have a top RB or a top TE, and they better put up multiple TD games because they are going to be their only source of offense. Just because a guy has more multiple TD games doesnt mean he is a better player. Theres so much that goes into that. 1) Say you play on a good team, chances are you will be winning in the 4th quarter and trying to run the ball and take time off the clock. Whereas if you are on a bad team, your team might throw the ball more or try to come from behind. You are probably more likely to have more opportunities for a multiple TD game playing on a bad team vs a good team, but that doesnt make you a better WR. 2) Say you have a premiere second WR, TE, or RB on your team. Coaches need to spread the ball around. They dont want one player getting 30 TDs and the other players getting 3. That causes players to get mad and talk in the locker room. On the other hand, say your team stinks and you are the primary weapon, then you might get the most redzone chances. 3) Also, it has to do with the playcalling and coaching philosophies. Some coaches are pass first guys, like Andy Reid. If its 4th and inches from the goaline, he will have McNabb in a 5 step drop and be calling fly routes. If its the Jets, the ball is going on the ground.

Multiple TD games is just like catch % for a WR. Yeah its a stat, but say WR 1 is thrown the ball 2 times in a game and catches the ball twice, he will have a 100% catch success rate. WR 2 is thrown the ball 20 times and makes an amazing 19 catches for a 95% success rate. Although WR1 had a better success rate than WR2, those stats are worthless in telling who had the better game and are worthless as a comparison tool.

If you want to talk about Jackson as a WR, do it with film and how he plays the game and what he does well and what he doesnt do well. The main reason against him IMO, is that I think San Diego is very likely to tag him with the high RFA tender and it will probably cost a 1st and a 3rd with a poison pill to get him. Multiple TD games comparison arent a good reason.

 

So if I go with your logic, and we can trade for a top 10 WR for a 5th rounder, you wouldnt do it? Because a top 10 WR in his prime for a 5th rounder is a no brainer.

You are ignoring a lot of factors and trying to simplify it, age, last years production, and attitude had a lot to do with Moss's trade value. And when did that happen? After his blistering 500 yard season with Oakland. Plus it was OAKLAND. His value was at an all time low then.

But I'll play along.

And wasnt Roy Williams had for a 1st, 3rd, and 5th more recently? Roy Williams wasnt even a top 25 WR this year. So if thats the case, then VJ is probably worth 3 1st rounders.



If you are buying a house in 2010 (VJ), do you check comps from 2007(Moss)?

And we arent comparing apples to apples. Im not comparing anything. You are trying to compare a young WR who just had his breakout year to a proven stud WR who has done it for a decade, and Im saying its a silly comparison because no one thinks Jacksons stats are better than Moss'.

Up next are you going to say that Aaron Rogers isnt a good QB because his career stats arent as good as Favres? And if Favre went to the Jets for a 4th rounder, then Rodgers value should be what, a 7th?

If thats the case and we can get Rodgers for a 7th and VJ for a 5th, we'd be stupid not to make those trades. Imagine that offseason, Rodgers at QB, Jackson and Ginn at WR, and we would still have our top 3 draft picks to address ILB, OLB, and DT! Fantasy!

 

Right, forgot about Oakland!

 

But how do we really know what kind of passing offense we have?

Maybe with Henne at QB, and now that he is a little more comfortable, we are a 'sling it to mars' type of offense. He certainly has the arm to fit that type of offense. And he pretty much ran a similar offense at Michigan.

IMO, the only reason why we've been so conservative the past 2 years are because of Pennington's arm strength limitations, and keeping the training wheels on Henne for much of this season being that he was pretty much a rookie

 

I agree with almost all of what you're saying. And I think most will strongly agree that Marshall is flat-out a better WR than Jackson.

But that's not to say that both won't help our passing game immensely.

The way I see it, I think we need a target, a guy who can get open and create separation all over the field, especially in the redzone. I think Vincent Jackson can be that guy, although in a perfect world I'd rather have Marshall just like you.

 

dez bryant

 

Chad Henne is in no way Philip Rivers. Chad is Good and I am not slamming him. I like Chad he is our QB. On this current team V. Jackson is an average receiver.

Philip Rivers is 50% the reason V. Jackson is who he is today.....JMO.

 

I did not say Henne did not deserve a big target. I have been saying that Henne's progress would be ******ed because of the lack of talent at WR on this team.

V. Jackson is inconsistent and IMO still unproven

A receiver like Anquin Boldin and Henne instantly improves without doing a thing. So does Tedd Ginn Jr

 

Please explain why Chris Chambers didn't turn into the All-Pro many thought he could be with a good QB in Rivers than?

Remember the whole: Fiedler, Lucas, Griese, Frerrote, Culpepper, Harrinton, etc. were holding down Chambers arguments?

Chambers goes to SD 8 years into his career, which is in no way past his prime, and he's cut less than 2 years later.

 

How about lack of talent at the wide receiver position and injuries to our #1 running Back

 

Gaudy YPC includes Yac

The difference:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYSxJgjjJFc"]YouTube- Ted Ginn Jr. and Snoop Dogg - Drop it Like it's Hot[/ame]


[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUj-fFhhNKc"]YouTube- Vincent Jackson Highlights[/ame]

 

Vincent Jackson had 47 more yards than Marshall despite getting thrown to a whopping 46 times less. Vincent Jackson is very very good.

According to Football Outsiders DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) he was the best receiver in the NFL last year.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

 

Brandon Marshall is also a possession receiver while Vincent Jackson is a true intermediate and deep threat.

Here are their stats on passes thrown 11+ yards last year:

Marshall had 18 catches on 51 passes for 35% catch percentage
Jackson had 41 catches on 73 passes for a 56% catch percentage