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#3 pick...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Jersey Dolfan, Jan 3, 2021.

  1. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    It would be stupid to throw the towel in on Tua after one lone season. He was rehabbing right up to what little camp there was. None of the rookie linemen got a training camp. People this is a very young team. Not having a training camp really Hurt these guys.
     
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  2. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    QB's drafted after the 1st round may have a chip on their shoulder and work out well. They are unlikely to be Divas early in their careers like RG III was. They can end up being driven over achievers such as Rogers or Brady.

    I feel we will periodically be drafting a QB, probably every 2nd or 3rd year and most probably a 3rd round or later pick. We will be looking for very smart, quality backups but would not be surprised to find a few gems every 2nd or 3rd pick over a 6 year period. Being smart (have the ability to learn) may be their most important feature with generally good passing and physical and mental toughness the second most important capabilities.


    I think we will actually be doing this for every position, with the weakest spots getting the most picks.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When Tua had the entire 1st string offense, he looked pretty good. And the reason for that was that Preston Williams and Grant were getting separation to make those throwing windows very easy to see for an NFL rookie. People tend to only remember the last few weeks and nothing about the situation itself. The truth of the matter is that we had very little in terms of offensive options the past few years and I think a lot of people take what Fitzpatrick did for granted. A rookie vs a 16-year vet hitting his stride is not a fair comparison.

    However, if you add a few playmakers that can get open quickly and make your QB look good, I think Tua can develop into a solid NFL starter quickly. I won't say "elite" or "top 10" or any of that nonsense because that's not what wins football game...completing passes and making good decisions are the important stuff. I think he'll do just fine once we round out the offense.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree, I'd take a 3rd round QB prospect almost every season and let them compete. The risk/reward is almost negligible when you're looking for a 10+ year leader that the entire offense runs through. I have no problem missing on several prospects before we find a diamond in the rough.

    My rough diamond this season is Trask out of Florida...he put up Burrow-like numbers as a Heisman finalist candidate and really has a cannon. He was pretty rough starting in 2019 and just kept getting better, more confident, and throwing great passes...I think he had 5 or 6 five+ TD games in 2020? He may not develop but if he did, I can see him being a franchise name in 3-5 years.
     
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  5. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Same here, the only thing that still really worries me is, if he can stay healthy. I think another reason he didn’t shine this year besides being rusty is that he still has that injury thing in the back of his head, which is more then understandable. I‘m a little torn right now, if we should go after a QB or stick with Tua. One thing is for sure, we have to face Josh Allen for quite some time and I don’t know if Tua cuts it, especially IF you have a chance to get Watson on a good deal or one of the QBs in this years draft which seems to be quite strong imo...
     
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  6. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    I'm sure lots of fans felt the same way about Josh Allen after 2018.
     
  7. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    A lot of talk about Tua and he’s our QB at least for next year. Let’s get back to the topic at hand. Who are you taking at #3? No trading back.
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Why no trading back? I still think that's the best option. Nothing wrong with perennially having 2 1st rounders.

    Anyway, whether we trade back or not our first pick has to be WR. I don't care if it's Smith or Chase, both are good, and ideally we trade back a few spots to #6 or so and pick one of them.
     
  9. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    That’s 100% what I want to but if we have to stay put, just more interested to see what people want. I could get behind Sewell or Parsons with that pick. I’m sure popular opinion will be Chase or Smith.
     
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  10. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Chase. Because I'm not sure Waddle or Smith are there at 18.
     
  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why people make this comparison. It was clear after Allen's rookie year he had the building blocks to be an elite QB. You all get caught up way too much in stats and miss the underlying skill set that determines long term success.

    Anyway on topic, at #3 if I'm not allowed to take a QB Im taking Sewell or Smith. Fine with either.
     
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  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Yes and going into his 2nd year, he'd made strides. He fixed a lot of bad...and in that Houston playoff game, he looked the part...until those two bonehead plays he made. I (as well as probably many others) said after that game...that he was "cleaning up a bonehead play here and there" from being scary.

    Hoping to see the same level of improvement into the 2nd year with Tua...expecting it really.

    Can't believe I'm pulling for the Ravens in a game....
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The problem I have is, Tua dues not possess the same physical abilities of Allen. I have no doubt Tua will improve. I just don't know that he can improve to the level of his peers, due to his own physical shortcomings.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No it wasn't clear. I challenge anyone here to link to a post of theirs from back then saying they thought Allen "had the building blocks to be an elite QB" after his rookie year. Hell I'd be impressed if you can find posts saying he was going to end up above average. Seriously, his rookie year was disastrous with accuracy approaching Tebow level. Almost no one thought he'd do well in the NFL after his rookie year, except obviously some Bills coaches.

    Predicting which QB's will succeed in the draft is a crapshoot and it's not that much better after their rookie year. Statistically, the correlation between z-score ratings (adjusted passer ratings) for rookie years since 1978 with 150+ passing attempts and career z-score ratings is 0.489. That means that about 24% of the variation in career ratings is explained (or predicted) by what that QB did as a rookie. That's NOT a large number. Have to get larger sample size.. for Tua too!
     
  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    That's a fallacious argument I dont even need to combat.

    Your opinion is that noone thought something. Sounds like an impossible burden of proof on your part.
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    There's nothing fallacious about my argument. You said it was clear Allen had the tools to be an elite QB. Fact is, almost everyone looked at his tremendously poor performance, poor mechanics and decision making and thought he was a bust.

    So no it's wasn't clear he was going to succeed. You're acting like the same evaluation approach you're using now would have led you to think Allen was going to succeed, and that's total bull. I remember after Darnold and Allen did so poorly their rookie year it was one post after another dismissing them (me too). So no it wasn't "clear" he would succeed. You're just saying that as if you had a crystal ball.
     
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  17. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Comparing college experience and first year struggles. Both had limited college experience. Allen gets a pass because of his size, running ability and arm strength. That running ability makes a lot of QBs look better than they are.
     
  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I hear ya...I'm more referring to improvement along "his" talents. He'll never have Allen's arm...the dude can flick it, falling down, sideways, and it has velocity. Would love for Tua to have the same arm, its just not in the cards, until much later, if then.

    You look at Brady TODAY, at 43, and his arm is much stronger than it was as a rookie. He developed his game over many years, through some very hardcore training, nutrition, and serious "can't give up" attitude. Tua has shown those same traits. Not saying he'll be Brady, but he has the tools, mindset and character to improve vastly.

    I still don't believe his hip recovery was 100% this year. Can't convince me of it. I watched his movements and torque when throwing...something was missing there.

    If we don't notice a marked improvement next season, IMO, time for concern.
     
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  19. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    When was the last time a WR went 3rd overall? I just don't see it. Trade back or wait until #18 to get a WR. Quality WR's can be had later in the draft. In last year's draft Justin Jefferson went 22nd overall, Aiyuk went 25th overall, Higgins 33rd, Pittman 34th, Shenault 42nd, and Claypool 49th. Admittidly, it was a deep class for WR (which begs the question why didn't Miami address the position last year?!), but point being there's going to be value at the position past the 3rd pick.

    JMHO...
     
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    This draft could be very divisive. We might need to bomb proof the forums before April.

    :)
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I doubt it. The greatest potential source of division — keep Tua or take a QB at #3 — has already been settled by the FO. We're keeping Tua. And if we're keeping him I think almost everyone agrees that we need better offensive weapons (regardless of QB really), as clearly the defense is one of the best already.

    So as long as the FO seriously addresses getting better offensive weapons in the offseason (and I personally would order the priorities: WR > RB > OL) the draft pick debates are likely to show little toxicity. We'll see lol. I think the biggest source of disagreement until the 2021 season starts is likely to surround Tua, not the draft picks.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When was the last time a wide receiver won the Heisman Trophy? Never, unless they were also stud return men.

    The game has evolved. The game goes through the quarterback and the receivers now. What was once "running backs" is now "receivers."
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He has all the tools to become a Drew Brees.
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There's a 99.9% chance it's one of those four players if we stay put. We ARE NOT drafting a QB at 3 unless we trade the pick trade for Watson, but I really don't think that will happen either.

    I still feel like the Jets will do the same thing as us and try trading out of that pick, which will make it much harder for us to follow suit. So we may end up picking #3 regardless.
     
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  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That 3 pick is so damn valuable though...I dunno if its prudent to pick ANY player there, if there are takers for trades (which there should be at 3).

    Ran a 3 round draft Pro Football Network with taking a LOT of trades...hard to imagine, but I'd take it:

    11. Micah Parsons, LB
    28. Travis Etienne, RB
    49. Terrace Marshall, Jr., WR
    81. Creed Humphrey, C
    2022 CIN 1st
    2022 NYG 1st
    2022 PHI 2nd
    2022 BAL 2nd
    2022 ARI 2nd
    2022 IND 4th

    I ran several scenarios, and that 3 can make a LOT of foundationally sound things happen.
     
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  26. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Looks like Tim Brown back in '91.

    Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Heisman_Trophy_winners

    But, I don't think winning the Heisman is in and of itself means a player is gonna be elite at the NFL level. Plenty of examples of that in the list.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No what it means is that the game has evolved toward throwing the ball, and so the guys doing the catching are more valued. Therefore the Heisman, as well as the #3 overall pick, are no longer out of the question for them.
     
  28. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Perhaps. But, I'd still rather see them trade back or take Sewell (if still OTB) at #3. But, my Dolphins rarely do what I think or hope they should do. So, maybe you'll get your way and they'll draft Smith or Chase at #3. Only 3 1/2 more months till we find out.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The issue is that the team currently has no go-to receiver, and so imagine a team in the days of running the ball that had no adequate running back. Here we are in the days of passing the ball with no adequate receiver.
     
  30. flounder97

    flounder97 Well-Known Member

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    Since I know everyone is sitting around waiting for my opinion on the matter, I thought that I would end the anticipation and expound what I would do...
    First of all, Watson is great, but he’ll cost way too much to get. You’ll give away pretty much everything to get an awesome QB, but whose he throw too? Whose running the ball? I honestly think if we gave up the farm for Watson we’ll be saying we got robbed in a year or two.
    Grabbing a QB with #3 is also a little problematic. You still gotta get WRs and RBs, plus deal with a PR mess with two roosters in the hen house.
    I honestly think we go as big as possible on offensive weapons with our first 4 picks. We have a lot of capital and can afford to “overdraft” players because if they give a chance for the offense to be explosive.
    So “overdraft” draft Smith at 3 (or Chase). Come back at 18 and “overdraft” Najee Harris. Then come back at the top of the 2nd and grab the best WR or RB on the board. Then later in the second grab another WR/RB or receiving TE. It’s all about getting playmakers that make it hard for defenses to choose who/how to cover.
    Coming out of round two with 2 WRs and 2 RBs sounds good to me. Or 3 WRs and a RB. Or 2 WRs, a RB, and a receiving TE. Any OC we get should be able to come up with a scheme to make Tua at least competent if we have all those weapons on the field.
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, he has two arms, two legs, a head.

    I wasn't seeing the next Drew Brees when I watched him extensively in college, or last season.

    Honestly it's really crazy, because truly, it's like the people from the Tannehill debate just switched sides. Even crazier, is that Tua, imo, isn't elite AT ANYTHING. At least Tannehill had that elite arm and toughness.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    People value different traits in QB prospects. Tua and Tannehill have different qualities. Neither did well their rookie year so depending on what you value you'll have different opinions about whether they're more likely to succeed or fail. That's all you're seeing: people valuing different things in QB's that haven't played much and haven't proven much.

    Thing is, no one knows how to evaluate QB's well. Pros don't do it well, and they don't seem to be getting better over time either. It's also hard to "learn". I mean what are we supposed to learn from Allen? That the next time we see something like that it's more likely the QB turns out well? Not at all. MOST QB's that start off like Allen end up busts.

    Same with every other evaluation method. You prefer mobility, most QB's you like will fail. You prefer strong arm strength, most will fail. You prefer accuracy, most will fail. The real moral of this story is: no one should value their own QB evals because no one is good at it (unless they prove otherwise with a written record).
     
  33. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Idk about you but I have 100% confidence in my ability to analyze a QB. We all get some wrong, but I'm right way more often than I'm wrong. I have 0% doubt that Tua is at very best an average starter.

    I'm willing to be 6 digit before the decimal point money on it if anyone here wants to take me up on it. Heck I'll wager my LIFE on it. There is 0% chance a human being that pathetic can succeed in life.
     
  34. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    We know you hate him Alex... :) What does Tua have to do next season to convince you he's not total trash and that you might give him a little chance after all (MVP?)?
     
  35. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    That is simply not true. There are pros who do a great job at it and pros who don't. There are amateurs who do a great job at it and amateurs who don't. I can give you example after example of the wisdom of the crowd being correct about QBs when NFL GMs and coaches thought they were the smartest people in the room and just knew that this kid was the next big thing. I mean hell, there are QBs out there still after season after season of being disappointing who coaches and GMs STILL throw money at because they're simply scared to take a chance and move on.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I was simply pointing out, it does seem that the sides have switched.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not for me at least. The only negative thing I was pointing about Tannehill after his first season was that the belief that the offensive line was at fault for his sacks was only partially true because he had exhibited difficulty sensing and evading pressure. At that point I still thought he could become a great NFL QB and had made no determination otherwise. Later during his Dolphins career I thought he had settled into being just an average QB, yes, but not after season one.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Be careful here. I was highly against drafting Tua (even though I knew he was definitely the pick). I was highly against starting Tua this season. I will also be highly for the franchise drafting a QB in this draft....even if it's a late round prospect (although I do want Trask in the 3rd, just like I wanted Hurts in the 3rd last year). I'm also all for bringing in Watson if the price is right...which could send Tua packing to Houston.

    But with all that said, Tua is my quarterback as long as he's the starter. I am rooting for him to succeed just as much as I rooted for RT, Fitz, Moore, Henne, Cutler, Pennington and Osweiler. I don't think his game is anywhere near 100% there yet and I question if he'll ever be able to process the field fast enough, but that really doesn't matter. For now, today, he's our quarterback and I accept that.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Which pros do it well? Consistently that is?

    And wisdom of the crowd is NOT one person. Yes, wisdom of the crowd is often better than any single individual. I still remember when the wisdom of the crowd said take Brees and Wannstedt didn't.

    Anyway, which person where we have a record of can you point to that does QB evals well?
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I don't believe that at all. Only if you produce a record showing that would I believe it. Having "confidence" most likely means you've forgotten about all the wrong evals and are selectively remembering the correct ones. Humans do that.

    You're only saying you'd bet your life on it because you wouldn't actually follow through if you lost lol.

    Regardless, there are tons of pathetic people that succeed even under your definition of "pathetic". So if your logic is that "pathetic" human implies "can't succeed", then we already know you're not good at predicting success.
     

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