2022 Best Case Scenario for Tua

McKinnon was getting 8 yards every carry it seemed. Don't know why the abandoned the run.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

McKinnon was getting 8 yards every carry it seemed. Don't know why the abandoned the run.

The second half execution was baffling. Both on players and coaches.

Also, the Bengals did a great job of making 2nd half adjustments. IMO, their defense is not getting enough credit for their Superbowl apperance.

"cbrad wrote:

Same thing happened when KC played Cinci late in the regular season. They bolt out to a lead and give it away in the 4th for 34-31 loss. KC needs to figure out how to play better with a lead. They really shouldn't change play calling once they're leading.

The one sad thing about the KC loss is that the fantastic game against Buffalo is now almost an afterthought. Had they won the SB that one playoff game would have been remembered to a far greater degree. I still think it was one of the best playoff games ever. Still can't believe what Mahomes and co. did with just 13 seconds left in regulation.

There was a social media meme going around after that game that said the NFL was going to cancel the rest of the playoffs and just have KC and Buffalo play a seven-game series. :chuckle:

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

The second half execution was baffling. Both on players and coaches.

Also, the Bengals did a great job of making 2nd half adjustments. IMO, their defense is not getting enough credit for their Superbowl apperance.

The big difference was the absence of targets for Tyreek Hill. In the first half he had 10 targets and 78 yards receiving. In the second half and OT not a single target other than the INT in overtime. I suspect the Bengals made a Bill Belichick-like adjustment of playing to take away Hill and make the Chiefs beat them with other players. Consequently Mahomes was sacked four times and threw two picks during that part of the game. Two of those sacks increased Cincinnati's win probability by ~10% apiece.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

The big difference was the absence of targets for Tyreek Hill. In the first half he had 10 targets and 78 yards receiving. In the second half and OT not a single target other than the INT in overtime. I suspect the Bengals made a Bill Belichick-like adjustment of playing to take away Hill and make the Chiefs beat them with other players. Consequently Mahomes was sacked four times and threw two picks during that part of the game. Two of those sacks increased Cincinnati's win probability by ~10% apiece.

Mahomes played bad. Not something you normally say but its true.

"Fireland wrote:

Mahomes played bad. Not something you normally say but its true.

Someone else said it but you also have to give credit to Cincys defense in the playoffs. They’re giving up less than 20 points per game. How much of that was on Mahomes not playing to his level vs Cincy putting him in that situation can be debated. But like most things, there’s some truth to both.

Early word is that McDaniel is positive on Tua and eager to get to work with him.

Now, assuming that's genuine (and I hope it is), that's great news. x's and O's aside, after all the ups and down of Tua's first years - start him, sit him, the coaches believes in him, doesn't believe in him - it's going to be good for Tua to have an enthusiastic coach behind him. Of course, it can't be measured by any metrics, but there's no way that having difference OC's every year, and worse an alleged lack of support from the HC who (one assumes) had a hand in drafting you. Whatever sort of QB Tua is or proves to be, I'll be glad for him to get some genuine support in becoming it. It'll be best for Tua, best for the 2022 Dolphins and the right move for McDaniel right off the bat.

"Galant wrote:

Early word is that McDaniel is positive on Tua and eager to get to work with him.

Now, assuming that's genuine (and I hope it is), that's great news. x's and O's aside, after all the ups and down of Tua's first years - start him, sit him, the coaches believes in him, doesn't believe in him - it's going to be good for Tua to have an enthusiastic coach behind him. Of course, it can't be measured by any metrics, but there's no way that having difference OC's every year, and worse an alleged lack of support from the HC who (one assumes) had a hand in drafting you. Whatever sort of QB Tua is or proves to be, I'll be glad for him to get some genuine support in becoming it. It'll be best for Tua, best for the 2022 Dolphins and the right move for McDaniel right off the bat.

The problem with that is that I don't think it's necessarily dispositive of Tua's ability. McDaniel didn't get any other job interviews, and I'm sure it's clear to even the casual observer that an interviewee for the Dolphins job needed to indicate a willingness to work with Tua to get the job. On top of that, it's probably clear to McDaniel that he can work with Tua for a year and then indicate he's soured on him (if indeed that's the case), and the team will then attempt to get a QB more to his liking. They aren't going to fire McDaniel after a year if he simply indicates he needs a better QB to win -- they're going to move on from Tua at that point.

What I wouldn't do if I were McDaniel is construct a team around maximizing Tua's performance if it isn't consistent with the kind of team functioning he believes is most competitive in the NFL. An unproven QB shouldn't dictate a team's personnel moves entirely -- what's most competitive in the league should dictate that.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

The problem with that is that I don't think it's necessarily dispositive of Tua's ability. McDaniel didn't get any other job interviews, and I'm sure it's clear to even the casual observer that an interviewee for the Dolphins job needed to indicate a willingness to work with Tua to get the job. On top of that, it's probably clear to McDaniel that he can work with Tua for a year and then indicate he's soured on him (if indeed that's the case), and the team will then attempt to get a QB more to his liking. They aren't going to fire McDaniel after a year if he simply indicates he needs a better QB to win -- they're going to move on from Tua at that point.

What I wouldn't do if I were McDaniel is construct a team around maximizing Tua's performance if it isn't consistent with the kind of team functioning he believes is most competitive in the NFL. An unproven QB shouldn't dictate a team's personnel moves entirely -- what's most competitive in the league should dictate that.

All of which has nothing to do with the point.

It will be good for Tua to have a coach who believe in him. Maybe he doesn't, maybe it's all smoke just to get the job, but maybe he does. Time will tell. But it would be best for Tua to have a coach who believes in him.

And this narrative about building around a QB vs building a competitive team is a false dichotomy. Building a team, and an offense, that wins is the only thing that matters. Building for some theoretical team and ignoring the QB you have has to assume you're going to have some theoretical QB in the future, who may or may not be what you theorise. Then building for a QB you have but not building an effective overall team is just bizarre. I think there's some serious tunnel vision here.

If McDaniel is going to succeed he's going to need to establish a winning team along his vision while also maximising the pieces he has. It's both/and, not either or.

"Galant wrote:

And this narrative about building around a QB vs building a competitive team is a false dichotomy. Building a team, and an offense, that wins is the only thing that matters. Building for some theoretical team and ignoring the QB you have has to assume you're going to have some theoretical QB in the future, who may or may not be what you theorise. Then building for a QB you have but not building an effective overall team is just bizarre. I think there's some serious tunnel vision here.

It's a true dichotomy, as such decisions involve mutually exclusive allocations of team resources. If you believe for example you need the best offensive line and run game in the league for your QB to perform sufficiently, you then may attempt to assemble such an offensive line and run game. That allocation of resources may make it impossible to play defense well enough to win a Super Bowl for example, as the team has too many resources in the offensive line and run game to permit it to play sufficient defense.

In other words, a QB can be a limiting factor for a team's performance. If the QB's ceiling isn't high enough -- and we don't know Tua's ceiling at present -- then pouring resources into maximizing his performance could very well be too great a ball and chain on the team overall.

My point is only that McDaniel certainly shouldn't be functioning with regard to personnel decisions as though Tua is a known commodity who has proven he can play at the sufficient level given the requisite surrounding talent. It's entirely possible that gearing personnel decisions around Tua's functioning could in fact undermine the team.

"mlb1399 wrote:

I played OL in college. I can tell you one thing, whatever stats suggest, if you can’t protect your QB and have some semblance of a run game things aren’t going to go well. Tua missed 4.5 games because Davis let a DE(AJE) kill him. Im convinced had Tua stayed healthy, we would have won 10 games.

I heard or read somewhere that Miami lost 3-4 games by 3 points or less where the FG kicker missed a FG.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

It's a true dichotomy, as such decisions involve mutually exclusive allocations of team resources. If you believe for example you need the best offensive line and run game in the league for your QB to perform sufficiently, you then may attempt to assemble such an offensive line and run game. That allocation of resources may make it impossible to play defense well enough to win a Super Bowl for example, as the team has too many resources in the offensive line and run game to permit it to play sufficient defense.

In other words, a QB can be a limiting factor for a team's performance. If the QB's ceiling isn't high enough -- and we don't know Tua's ceiling at present -- then pouring resources into maximizing his performance could very well be too great a ball and chain on the team overall.

My point is only that McDaniel certainly shouldn't be functioning with regard to personnel decisions as though Tua is a known commodity who has proven he can play at the sufficient level given the requisite surrounding talent. It's entirely possible that gearing personnel decisions around Tua's functioning could in fact undermine the team.

You're operating from only a theoretical perspective. Tua remains an unknown, but so too will any theoretical replacement. There's no way to know what comes next. Personnel decisions will always have to be made. McDaniel will need to make the best decisions he can make and that's the tough job of a HC and GM. A good decision-maker will weigh the balance. In a sense, it's a truism, if McDaniel is a good decision maker he'll make good decisions.

Maybe Tua isn't the guy, he'll need to see that. He'll also need to see where the team stands everywhere else, and the reality is, this team has legitimate needs all over the offense. Whatever moves he makes this year he's unlikely to go overboard in any area. WRs, RBs, OL, all could see significant improvement. So for the sake of 2022 it's hard to see how McDaniel could build for Tua in a way that wouldn't be building for the team as a whole.

Getting back to the point of my comment and this thread, what will be good for Tua is to have a coach who believes in him and helps to bring the best out of him - both taking into account that which he does well, and helping him to adapt to the style and system McDaniel wants to implement. That was my point.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

The problem with that is that I don't think it's necessarily dispositive of Tua's ability. McDaniel didn't get any other job interviews, and I'm sure it's clear to even the casual observer that an interviewee for the Dolphins job needed to indicate a willingness to work with Tua to get the job. On top of that, it's probably clear to McDaniel that he can work with Tua for a year and then indicate he's soured on him (if indeed that's the case), and the team will then attempt to get a QB more to his liking. They aren't going to fire McDaniel after a year if he simply indicates he needs a better QB to win -- they're going to move on from Tua at that point.

What I wouldn't do if I were McDaniel is construct a team around maximizing Tua's performance if it isn't consistent with the kind of team functioning he believes is most competitive in the NFL. An unproven QB shouldn't dictate a team's personnel moves entirely -- what's most competitive in the league should dictate that.

Exactly, couldn't have said it better myself. Grier and Ross were looking for a yes man who was willing to work with Tua, so it's no surprise McDaniel is saying he wants to work with Tua. However, if working with Tua means we have to implement a system only for him, then it will set us back.

It was my fear regarding the whole HC search process as well. Did we actually go out there and get the best HC available, or were we just looking for the best coach for Tua? Unfortunately the evidence suggests we did the latter.

"cbrad wrote:

Pass block win rates:

Chiefs 91%
Bengals 38%

(Average is 60%)

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 30, 2022

Moral of the story is we need a franchise QB.

Woah, that's CRAZY! No way you'd look at that stat and guess that the Bengals won. But in context, it does show how incredible Burrow has been this season.

New coach or not, the path forward for Tua is exactly the same. You can't ask the kid to get the ball out any quicker, so we either need better protection to allow plays to develop, or we need receivers to get open faster. Scheme can help to some extent but at the end of the day, we need better positional players on offense.

Let's try this from a different approach. From best to worst, rank the starting 11 players on offense. Here's what I would say:

1. Waddle
2. Tua
3. Parker
4. Gisecki/Smythe (TE's for different sets)
5. Johnson/Gaskin (or the RB room as a whole)
6. Dieter
7. Hunt
8. Davis
9. Eichenberg
10. Fuller (due to availability)
11. Jackson

Am I wrong here? Should we swap Tua & Parker? Or move Tua below Parker & Gisecki? This topic is about how Tua can improve but it's ignoring the other 10 starters. Tua's ceiling is directly related to everyone else's.

"hitman8 wrote:

Exactly, couldn't have said it better myself. Grier and Ross were looking for a yes man who was willing to work with Tua, so it's no surprise McDaniel is saying he wants to work with Tua. However, if working with Tua means we have to implement a system only for him, then it will set us back.

It was my fear regarding the whole HC search process as well. Did we actually go out there and get the best HC available, or were we just looking for the best coach for Tua? Unfortunately the evidence suggests we did the latter.

You don't know any of this for certain. Maybe they were, but I doubt that. There's no evidence that "we did the latter". McDaniel deserves a shot just as much as anyone else. And the idea that this year, in 2022, we can do things for Tua that won't be good for the team overall is nonsense. Just about anything we do that's good for Tua will also be good for the rest of the team. If you disagree then tell me what, this year, we can do for Tua that will be bad for the team.

I get that this has been a horrible experience for us as fans for years and that Ross' record doesn't bode well for the future, nevertheless, we can at least try to stay grounded and objective. For example, on the one hand we want to see a HC that can see the talent he has and work with it to play to their talents, rather than ignoring it and having people play out of place or in some less than efficient fashion. On the other hand, we want a coach with vision to bring change and come up with a system that works in today's NFL. We have to maintain the balance of both - just like McDaniel will also have to do. He'll need to look at what we have this year, figure out his vision, bring in picks and Free Agents to build towards that, try to always develop synergy across the team, train them up, and compete. That's the reality. For this Miami team, more than the players for one year, it'll be the coaches McDaniel brings in that will matter most. And the hope is that McDaniel, and his coaches, will be competent and bring the most out of the players we have and will have, by 2022. Tua included.

"KeyFin wrote:

New coach or not, the path forward for Tua is exactly the same. You can't ask the kid to get the ball out any quicker, so we either need better protection to allow plays to develop, or we need receivers to get open faster. Scheme can help to some extent but at the end of the day, we need better positional players on offense.

Let's try this from a different approach. From best to worst, rank the starting 11 players on offense. Here's what I would say:

1. Waddle
2. Tua
3. Parker
4. Gisecki/Smythe
5. Johnson/Gaskin
6. Dieter
7. Hunt
8. Davis
9. Eichenberg
10. Fuller
11. Jackson

Am I wrong here? Should we swap Tua & Parker? Or move Tua below Parker & Gisecki? This topic is about how Tua can improve but it's ignoring the other 10 starters. Tua's ceiling is directly related to everyone else's.

I will see that we should have had Fuller this year and didn't. That hampered our offensive plans. As far as I can tell, apart from Waddle, or WR's were poor. The whole idea was to create more separation and then, I assume, get yard after the catch. We failed miserably. So I think we hope to see some major upgrades in the receiving corp.

I think we see one or two upgrades on the OL but the biggest hope for that unit is some great coaching.

We know McDaniel has a rep for a creative run game. That bodes well for a more balanced offensive with better discipline and performance.

For the ranking I would say:

1. Tua/Waddle
2. Gesicki
3. Hunt
4. Smythe/Johnson
5. Parker/Gaskin
6. Dieter
7. Davis
8. Eichenberg
9. Jackson

Fuller left off because he was a scratch.

That seriously has to get Tua pumped up.
Humility. Vision. Hard work.

That's how things get done.

Maybe it's for show for us. Maybe he has his doubts but he's encouraging Tua anyway. Who knows. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt because this is one way to be a great leader. No man left behind. From other videos it's clear that McDaniel is no soft-touch, so I'm not worried about that.

Let's hope Grier gives McDaniel what he wants and needs.

"Galant wrote:

There’s no other coach in the entire world Tua would want to play for.

😁 this is going to be fun. https://t.co/8Va3IlTCj9

— The Phinsider (@thephinsider) February 8, 2022

First of all, it's very cool that he shared that. If things go bad, we'll know exactly why with McDaniel and his communication style. So I'm pumped as well for that change in philosophies.

But 2nd, I can't help but wonder if Tua actually said he wants McDaniel more than any other coach, LOL. Tua was laughing so I think McDaniel made that up on the spot. That makes me a little nervous if that was pre-planned.

"KeyFin wrote:

First of all, it's very cool that he shared that. If things go bad, we'll know exactly why with McDaniel and his communication style. So I'm pumped as well for that change in philosophies.

But 2nd, I can't help but wonder if Tua actually said he wants McDaniel more than any other coach, LOL. Tua was laughing so I think McDaniel made that up on the spot. That makes me a little nervous if that was pre-planned.

Good spot. I think that was tongue-in-cheek from McDaniel. It would fit what we've seen of him in terms of sense of humour. Disarming way of handling things. Build rapport.

"KeyFin wrote:

New coach or not, the path forward for Tua is exactly the same. You can't ask the kid to get the ball out any quicker, so we either need better protection to allow plays to develop, or we need receivers to get open faster. Scheme can help to some extent but at the end of the day, we need better positional players on offense.

Let's try this from a different approach. From best to worst, rank the starting 11 players on offense. Here's what I would say:

1. Waddle
2. Tua
3. Parker
4. Gisecki/Smythe (TE's for different sets)
5. Johnson/Gaskin (or the RB room as a whole)
6. Dieter
7. Hunt
8. Davis
9. Eichenberg
10. Fuller (due to availability)
11. Jackson

Am I wrong here? Should we swap Tua & Parker? Or move Tua below Parker & Gisecki? This topic is about how Tua can improve but it's ignoring the other 10 starters. Tua's ceiling is directly related to everyone else's.

Waddle is a clear #1 and then there's a huge gap. The rest are replaceable.

We need an infusion of talent on offense, most importantly at QB and WR. We're stuck with Tua for now, unless we splurge on QB in FA. Assuming we don't, we should pay whatever is necessary to get a top WR in FA and use draft picks to improve RB and OL. Hopefully McDaniel is the first coach since Shula to give us a good offense. We'll see.

Even if they do decide to roll with Tua this year, which I think is a mistake, I think they absolutely have to bring in some kind of solid competition for him. It would be good for him. One of them could end up being a quality back up which the team usually ends up needing at some point anyway.

"KeyFin wrote:

New coach or not, the path forward for Tua is exactly the same. You can't ask the kid to get the ball out any quicker, so we either need better protection to allow plays to develop, or we need receivers to get open faster. Scheme can help to some extent but at the end of the day, we need better positional players on offense.

Let's try this from a different approach. From best to worst, rank the starting 11 players on offense. Here's what I would say:

1. Waddle
2. Tua
3. Parker
4. Gisecki/Smythe (TE's for different sets)
5. Johnson/Gaskin (or the RB room as a whole)
6. Dieter
7. Hunt
8. Davis
9. Eichenberg
10. Fuller (due to availability)
11. Jackson

Am I wrong here? Should we swap Tua & Parker? Or move Tua below Parker & Gisecki? This topic is about how Tua can improve but it's ignoring the other 10 starters. Tua's ceiling is directly related to everyone else's.

Tua is the team's second best offensive player? :beer: