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2022 Best Case Scenario for Tua

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 25, 2022.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's the thing. Brad and I like each other, but we pretty much hate each other's ideas. We do not agree ABOUT ANYTHING football. But we're friends, or at least friendly. Have been for years now.

    I personally think Brad is one of the smartest people on this site. But I also think at times he's off base because he doesn't have practical experience on the football field. So I will continue to call out my friend on what I believe is BS, partially to educate him and partially for personal enjoyment. That's one thing we have in common- we do both like to argue. But it's never personal.

    One thing to keep in mind, this forum will be a ghost town in 7-10 days. Please don't discourage any form of spirited debates here. Maybe I'll never fully win an argument with Brad, but I think it's entertainment for everyone when there's nothing else to talk about.
     
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  2. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    From my experience, the best way to approach this problem would be to look at exogenous exits (i.e. players missing game due to injury). I believe that method has been one of the more successful ones in other applications (political fundraising, for example).
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yes that's in principle the best method because it's close to a controlled experiment. The issue there however is small sample size.
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    its also really hard to get quality structured data around injury history.
     
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    WHY BRING UP WILSON????

    So an elite QB who can run like Barry Sanders won with a terrible oline.

    I guess that means Tua doesn't need one? The thread is about how to support Tua. The best way to improve tua's performance is to give him better protection and more time to throw.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You didn’t read the discussion. Topic jumped to something far more general than Tua. I said multiple times you need to give Tua a good OL. Obviously people weren’t arguing against that. Read first then answer.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude I've read every post. It spans weeks.

    But you brought up Wilson winning a Super Bowl to defend your premise about the level of oline needed to win. Stop acting like that isn't what you were doing. The problem is, WILSON HAS A SKILL SET that enables him to function at an elite level behind garbage oline. So, yes, for Russell Wilson, he can win a Super Bowl with an average or worse oline.

    Tua, however, cannot. So, again, REGARDLESS of what your stats say about the oline, FOR TUA, he needs an above average oline.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If you really read through my posts you would have never posted what you just did. I said repeatedly that Tua needs a good OL. So why act like I didn't? Right.. because you did NOT read what I wrote. I also pointed out that he's not the type of QB (based on performance thus far) that tends to win a SB.

    You want a link to the actual post you didn't bother to read? Try this:
    https://thephins.com/threads/2022-best-case-scenario-for-tua.97029/page-7#post-3450876
    So don't tell me you read what I wrote. You did NOT.

    And the context in this case — which you did NOT read — was the knee jerk claim that because in this particular SB a good OL was necessary that somehow that shows that's in general true. THAT was the context. And the stats I posted showed that argument really had no merit. This latest convo had nothing to do with Tua, which btw is why Galant asked to bring the topic back to Tua. You didn't read that either.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2022
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you can be specific here, what type of QB wins a super bowl? And how do you know Tua is not that type of QB?
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Key phrase in what you quoted is: "based on performance thus far". By now you know I mean z-score ratings. The average z-score rating of a QB that wins a SB is just about 1 in the year they win it. Stafford had a 1.15 this year so right in line with historical trends.

    Tua's z-score was -0.056 this year. Clearly nothing close to what's needed. That says nothing about Tua's future of course. However, QB performance tends to plateau (on average of course) from about year 3-4. So for me to believe in Tua being good enough he needs to get close enough to that 1 SD in 2022, and a z-score = 1 in 2021 corresponds to a 101.3 rating so that gives you some idea of the goal.

    The reason I started to frown on Tua at the end of 2021 was because I can see improvement in his surroundings helping him get into mid-90's ratings, but to go higher you'll likely need a big improvement from Tua himself. He certainly improved from year 1 to year 2, but this is asking for an even bigger jump to year 3. Not expecting it, but you have to give him the chance. If however in year 3 he's not close to that ~100 rating then you need to look for a new QB.

    Oh, and why he failed to end 2021 in the mid 90's as I was hoping is instructive too. He couldn't "carry the team" when necessary in near-playoff situations. That's a bad sign because you're likely to have at least one game in the playoffs where you have to do that if you want to win a SB. He'll get more chances at that though.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2022
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Lmao

    The omniscient cbrad knows what I've read?

    I still question why you would bring up Russell Wilson. He's the outlier that is very successful with a terrible line. That was what I posted initially.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You clearly didn't read/remember/care what I wrote about Tua, otherwise why act like I didn't say that. Worse, you continued to act like I didn't say that even after I told you I said it multiple times.

    But let's look at why I brought up Russell Wilson. I'm going to say the same thing: read the post I responded to.

    hitman said this:
    That has nothing to do with Tua. That's a general claim that there's NO situation where you need a game winning drive and you have a terrible OL would what I'm saying apply. That's when I brought up two counter-examples: Eli and Wilson. hitman then agreed I was right that in those precise "real world of football" situations what I said does occur, obviously not frequently of course, but that wasn't the claim. His claim was that it never occurs. That's why I brought up Eli and Wilson. And the best example is Eli with that helmet catch, not Wilson.

    Again.. you're not reading the posts. Bringing up Wilson had NOTHING to do with Tua.
     
  13. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I find RBWR to be a pretty terrible metric. Are there any other metrics/stats/analysis that found the Dolphins run blocking decent?
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nothing I'd really call a stat. Black box "stats" exist but you can't tell what they're doing. Anyway, I'm fine with you dismissing RBWR. It's a lot harder to develop a good stat for run blocking than for pass blocking, so I'm sure RBWR is a work in progress. PBWR is on more sound footing even if the 2.5 second mark is somewhat arbitrary for beating the blocker.

    You do have to admit though that RBWR is a good start. It's objective because they try to infer whether a block was successful or not just by looking at angles, distances and speeds throughout the play. Of course, what's so hard to get right is deciding when the block was successful. I know they had football experts help them with that, but usually the result of getting expert help like that is the metric works well for some plays but not for others. So I'm sure RBWR is a work in progress.
     
  15. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It doesn't address combo blocking or second level responsibilities etc...meaning who is supposed to come off the double and get there. I get what they're trying to do. Some things just aren't ready for algorithms yet. Anyone find a good yards before contact ranking for this year? Not a PFF subscriber. Obviously, RB vision plays into that, but I find that to be a better indicator of overall OL performance.

    I've been watching 49ers games from this year. It's such a fun run offense to watch. So many perfectly moving parts. Overall it seems like a great fit for Tua. I really thought Fuller was going to be a difference maker last year though. So, what the hell do I know? Really looking forward to watching it unfold.
     
  16. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Correction, I never claimed it NEVER happens. You're just putting words in my mouth. My claim was that stats and averages over time don't always translate to real world pressure situations where oline play becomes very important. And the example you brought of Eli and the helmet catch actually helps prove my point that even with great QB and receiver play to make circus plays, you still should strive have a good oline so the QB and reciever don't have to work miracles to make things work.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Given what you actually wrote the “never” is implied. You didn’t say they “don’t always” apply. You just asserted I was wrong. Had you actually said “don’t always” it would have elicited no response from me. Well I’m not wrong because never once did I suggest you shouldn’t strive to have a good OL. My claim was always about relative value and how to prioritize resources under resource constraints.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2022
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, Tua's not good enough because of his z-score rating. What is the basis of that z-score? You'll say passer rating, so let's just skip to that. What is the basis of passer rating and what types of quarterbacks tend to excel at that metric?
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No one can give you that kind of answer. Not a stats guy and not a football expert. If we could you wouldn’t see the huge percentage of busts by QBs picked high in the draft.

    Those 2 measures, z-score and how often the QB can play well when the rest of the team isn’t, are outcome measures (with that second one partly requiring the eye test). They don’t tell you what combination of traits predicts the outcome. But those are the outcomes you need to see.
     
  20. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Please! Someone. Rehash that Statistical Methods For Football thread! Please.
    This is again getting out of hand.
     
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  21. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    A common response I've heard as concerns Tua's high completion percentage is that Miami were throwing a LOT of short passes and that it's easier to be accurate and complete passes over shorter distances. That makes sense as far as it goes, but one thing I've not seen discussed is the difference between tight throws and open throws.

    Short passes are shorter but there's less time for the play to develop, so depending upon scheme and WR talent, could some short throws be susceptible to tighter coverage if the WR can't create separation quickly? Of course, long throws can be covered tightly too, depending on the talent of the WR and DB, but assuming a talented WR, would it be incorrect to imagine that with more time, chances are better for greater separation?

    Perhaps time doesn't matter. Maybe it's just a matter of WR talent vs DB/LB talent and separation stands on it's own merit as WR talent/stat regardless of situation.

    One would still think, though, that short passes have to happen more quickly and might be more a produce of quick decisions and quick reactions in a fast moving situation, as opposed to getting more time for things to develop and see where it's going.

    My ultimate point/question being, are all short vs long passes created equal, where short is always easier than long, or are there situations where lack of separation or WR talent might make short passes as tough as longer ones, or even tougher?

    Has anyone seen anything looking at this?

    One thing that's certain is that Miami had the most aggressive/tight-window passing of any team in the league this year. The aim before the season was to bring in WR's who could create separation and that just did not happen. Miami were horrible in that regard.

    That being the case, perhaps there's more to Tua's passing accuracy numbers than just the short distance they covered?

    EDIT - There's an article at Sharp talking about the smartest NFL offenses learning to avoid tight window passing. Here's a paragraph:

    "Tight window throws, expectedly, have a small margin for error. Over the past three seasons, Aggressiveness has a negative correlation with completion percentage, touchdown rate, and yards per attempt as well as a positive correlation with interception rate. It’s the only passing Next Gen Stat with negative results across the board."

    Aggressiveness has a negative correlation with completion percentage. This is maybe cherry picking, but if that's generally true, then the fact Miami were #1 in aggressive throws and Tua was #4 in completion percentage when clean, warrants at least some consideration and investigation.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2022
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  22. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Another thought about Tua, or perhaps this is more of a feeling, but everything about Tua's history speaks to a work ethnic and commitment to learn. He was always the best at first but where errors were pointed out he got to work and improved. One area where I suspect this might be true is the mental learning curve in the NFL. I suspect he's learning what it means to be an NFL QB, reading NFL defences, making NFL decisions. If life in Alabama made anything too easy it could be removing some of that challenge and when he came to the NFL he's had to hit a learning curve. If his trend to learn and work and correct is real, then Tua may prove to be a QB who needed a few years to go through that process before being able to maximise on his talents. Here's to hoping we'll see even more growth in him this year.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    First, I don't think short passes are "easier" than long passes. Any QB in the league that has time to throw can hit an open receiver 40 yards downfield. And by "any QB", I mean all starters, backups and all 32 practice squad players can hit that throw almost 100% of the time.

    The key is throwing that pass "clean", which simply means you can plant your feet, plus have a proper throwing motion and follow through. With that said, Miami has thrown short by necessity- first from the the line protection and second from receiver separation. To hit that 50 yard pass, a lot of things outside the QB's control has to go right, and that's not happening frequently in Miami.

    For that 3 yard pass, it's almost 100% on the QB since he shouldn't be under pressure in the time it takes to release that pass. The receiver still has to be open, but still...you get where I'm going with that. Blocking is much less important. Some may say it's the harder of the throws though because the window and timing is so tight.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Of course they are, at least if the goal is to complete the pass. It's well known statistically that there's a negative linear relationship between air yards and completion probability, i.e., the longer the pass the lower the completion probability. So yes stats show shorter passes are easier to complete, at least in real game situations.

    Also, there's no question that one of the major reasons completion percentages across the board are so much higher today than 20 years ago is because of the higher percentage of screen passes for example. Those used to be much less common. Shorter passes are "easier" in terms of higher completion probability, which is one reason Tua's stats there are good.

    Thing is, there's a trade-off between higher completion probability and Y/A. Have to find that sweet spot for each QB.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He didn't ask if short passes have a higher completion percentage- he asked if they were easier to throw. Two completely different things.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No, he asked whether short passes were "easier", not "easier to throw". Since the goal is to complete the pass (not "throw it" per se), whether the pass is "easier" or "more difficult" is measured by completion percentage, at least to a good first approximation.

    In other words you can't be arguing passes with higher completion percentage are not easier when the goal is to complete the pass. All that stuff about tight windows and so on is implicitly incorporated into completion percentage, at least on average.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You don't think he already knew that short passes were easier to complete?
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He knew that it led to higher completion percentage. What he didn't realize is that at least on average that stat answers the question he was asking because the goal is to complete the pass. This is independent of the specific question about Tua and aggressiveness of course, but you weren't responding to that.
     
  29. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  30. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  31. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That stat can be read two ways:

    1) Tua is great threading passes in tight windows
    2) Miami receivers just couldn't get open very often

    The truth is a little bit of both of those things.
     
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  33. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Quoting this post because Aggressiveness and WR performance is getting some discussion.
     
  34. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    The first page in this thread includes a lot of stats for this season - passing, receiving and OL.

    https://thephins.com/threads/2022-best-case-scenario-for-tua.97029/

    Some quotes:


    Miami were tied for second in shortest time to pass, Tua was hurried a lot but Miami show up a middle of the pack or better when it comes to pressure %. So Miami and Tua apparently did an incredible job of getting the ball out quickly.

    One way of reading that is to say that the Dolphins planned for a majority of short and quick passes, not longer ones, otherwise you'd expect to see Tua planning to hold the ball longer and thus facing more pressures, hits and sacks, right?

    Air Yds to the Sticks (-1.4) and average Air Yds (7) seem to indicate the Dolphins were aiming to pass just short of first downs and keep the ball moving that way.

    At the same time, Tua showed better than middle of the pack completion %, and even though there were a lot of short passes Tua had the highest aggression rating in the league which means he was passing into tight windows. That could come to Tua forcing passes when easier options might have been available, but it could also indicate the receivers weren't getting a lot of separation, and/or it could simply be a result of a short passing game that doesn't give time for plays to develop. Either way, he managed to get the ball to his receivers pretty well despite having to throw quickly and into tight windows.


    In terms of accuracy:
    OnTgt% 10th in the leaguePoor throws was just on the low end for league average (10th from bottom):
    Bad%

    Average Depth of Target was, as expected, on the low end:
    But yards before catch seems to be about average or better, which seems surprising considering the short passes, maybe the league as a whole were also passing short?

    Yards after catch were tied for 2nd to bottom. Maybe a result of short passes and tight windows, or maybe receivers not able to get separation and break tackles?
    Interestingly, the Bills were worse.

    Number of broken tackles was good for 11th in the league:


    Drop % was bad enough to tie for 3rd worst:
     
  35. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  36. Phil Hutchings

    Phil Hutchings Well-Known Member

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    It sounds exciting.
     
  37. Phil Hutchings

    Phil Hutchings Well-Known Member

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    Sounds promising.

    Now we need to recruit the right WRs for Tua.
     
  38. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I read it a third way: Tua had to deliver the ball quickly to avoid pressure. His receivers either didn't have time to separate or did a poor job of route running (probably the former). IMO, it's an impressive stat.
     
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  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree about the pressure part, but to me it's a negative stat overall. The receivers didn't have time to get open in the window Tua had to throw the ball, so passes came out quick.

    But then again, when he hits Waddle on a 1-yard slant, that DE or OLB (neither of which are covering him) will almost always be within a yard. The CB should be right there too. So when you watch the tape and look at the stat, I'm not sure if it's positive when we know the offense underperformed.
     
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  40. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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