2022 Best Case Scenario for Tua
327 replies
NFL.com's Next Gen Stats lists separation for receivers. - https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-cushion
3 Miami receivers qualified to be listed. (Minimum 45 Targets (5 Targets, Multiplied By Number of Weeks, Divided By 2))
Out of 127 players:
Average Separation (SEP)
The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.
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Devante was worst for separation with 1.7
Gesicki 80th
Waddle 39th.
This is Cushion:
Average Cushion (CUSH)The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.
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% Targeted of Team's Air Yards:
The sum of the receivers total intended air yards (all attempts) over the sum of his team’s total intended air yards. Represented as a percentage, this statistic represents how much of a team’s deep yards does the player account for.
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Average Targeted Air Yards:
The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.
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Yards after catch per reception:
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AVG YAC Above Expectation:
Expected YAC = The expected yards after catch, based on numerous factors using tracking data such as how open the receiver is, how fast they’re traveling, how many defenders/blockers are in space, etc
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"Although we are capable of great acts of kindness, history teaches us that we sometimes need saving from ourselves – from our recklessness or our greed. God sent into the world a unique person – neither a philosopher nor a general, important though they are, but a Saviour, with the power to forgive... It is my prayer that on this Christmas day we might all find room in our lives for the message of the angels and for the love of God through Christ our Lord." (Christmas message, 2011)
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
The above is a good study in what I've been talking about here. In 2020 Cincinnati's pass block win rate was 29th in the league at 50%. Joe Burrow was injured that year, and it was widely thought they needed to improve their pass protection to facilitate Burrow's development and their passing game. Instead of taking Penei Sewell, a very highly-touted left tackle, they took the highest regarded receiver available, Ja'Marr Chase, with the 5th overall pick in 2021.
Lo and behold this year Cincinnati's pass block win rate was very slightly worse, at 49%. One would think Burrow and the pass offense simply stagnated or got worse, correct?
Not in the least -- Cincinnati's pass efficiency (EPA per pass dropback) went from 26th to 9th in the league. How did that happen?
Burrow's PFF QB grade went from 19th in the league at 75.1 to first in the league at 92.4. Chase was inserted into their receiving corps and became the 8th-highest graded receiver in the league by PFF.
So one can see with this example how these three variables (QB, OL, and receivers) work in the passing game -- no change in Cincinnati's OL pass blocking, whereas plenty of change in QB and receiver functioning, to the tune of a vast improvement in pass efficiency.
Now, can they (and do they need to) improve more with better offensive line play? Certainly. But the degree of positive change in their passing game from 2020 to 2021 illustrates just how little an impact pass blocking can have on a team over a season-long duration.
The Dolphins need better QB and receiver play.
I think Chase certainly helped a lot, but let's not forget that the greatest improvement in passer rating tends to take place from year 1 to year 2, and you usually don't see a change of 18+ passer rating points just with the addition of an elite WR. In this case I think most of the improvement is in Burrow himself. Burrow is the one true elite QB that came out from the 2020 draft, with Herbert possibly following in the future. Cinci's points per game was 29th and is now 7th. That's what an elite QB, and also in this case an elite WR, can give you even with a crap OL. Cinci now has the luxury of focusing on building a better defense. Their offense only needs minor improvement.
As far as the Dolphins, what we need most is an elite QB. We already have a very good and potentially elite WR in Waddle. Granted we need one more really good WR but the primary problem with the Dolphins is at QB. Tua has one more year to prove it that's it.
People here keep making excuses like you need to build a good OL, running game etc. but that usually doesn't get you far unless you have a QB that can play at a high level WITHOUT those factors, especially in the playoffs where you're probably going to face at least one defense that will force you to do that. Just see Tennessee for a great example of a very well built team without the QB. We shouldn't try copying that approach. As hard as it is to find the elite QB that's what you need. Maybe FA can help? Otherwise Tua has one final year and if he fails you spend as much draft capital to get the next top prospect.
@7089 this being a thread about getting the most out of Tua, what would your recommendations be towards that end?
"Although we are capable of great acts of kindness, history teaches us that we sometimes need saving from ourselves – from our recklessness or our greed. God sent into the world a unique person – neither a philosopher nor a general, important though they are, but a Saviour, with the power to forgive... It is my prayer that on this Christmas day we might all find room in our lives for the message of the angels and for the love of God through Christ our Lord." (Christmas message, 2011)
"Galant wrote:
@7089 this being a thread about getting the most out of Tua, what would your recommendations be towards that end?
For Tua I agree you need to give him better pass protection. We should prioritize OL and RB in the draft and WR in FA (much better pickings there), but in the end it's not about what's best for Tua. It's about what's best for the team, and the threshold for me is ~100 passer rating next year for Tua or you trade him and go after another QB.
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
The above is a good study in what I've been talking about here. In 2020 Cincinnati's pass block win rate was 29th in the league at 50%. Joe Burrow was injured that year, and it was widely thought they needed to improve their pass protection to facilitate Burrow's development and their passing game. Instead of taking Penei Sewell, a very highly-touted left tackle, they took the highest regarded receiver available, Ja'Marr Chase, with the 5th overall pick in 2021.
Lo and behold this year Cincinnati's pass block win rate was very slightly worse, at 49%. One would think Burrow and the pass offense simply stagnated or got worse, correct?
Not in the least -- Cincinnati's pass efficiency (EPA per pass dropback) went from 26th to 9th in the league. How did that happen?
Burrow's PFF QB grade went from 19th in the league at 75.1 to first in the league at 92.4. Chase was inserted into their receiving corps and became the 8th-highest graded receiver in the league by PFF.
So one can see with this example how these three variables (QB, OL, and receivers) work in the passing game -- no change in Cincinnati's OL pass blocking, whereas plenty of change in QB and receiver functioning, to the tune of a vast improvement in pass efficiency.
Now, can they (and do they need to) improve more with better offensive line play? Certainly. But the degree of positive change in their passing game from 2020 to 2021 illustrates just how little an impact pass blocking can have on a team over a season-long duration.
The Dolphins need better QB and receiver play.
Your math fails because your hypothesis fails- Burrow is a generational quarterback. You don't know that yet because there's too small of a sample size, where the average fan can see it plainly. cBrad made that argument repeatedly about Russell Wilson- he can excel without an offensive line, so that makes the line statistically irrelevant.
Only, Burrow or Wilson are not starting for all 32 NFL teams...that's where this entire line of thinking falls apart. What Burrow did this season does not correlate to what the vast majority of quarterbacks have done over the last 50+ years. It didn't correlate in college either, because he's a rare talent.
It's sort of like people robbing a bank. They do it once and get away with it, so they assume there's no reason not to do it again. So they do it over and over again until eventually getting caught. The outlier is not them getting caught one time out of 3 or 10 or 50 attempts; that's the foregone conclusion. The outlier is that they started with a flawed hypothesis that crime pays and they'd never get caught.
So let's state the obvious why your theory is ridiculous- Burrow missed a large portion of last year after a brutal hit behind the line of scrimmage. He's an elite, generational quarterback but just like in the other scenario I presented, not protecting him makes injury a foregone conclusion sooner or later. Some QBs don't come back from an injury like that- which makes his 2nd year all the more remarkable.
Anyway, Burrow is not the ideal "baseline" to form a league-wide hypothesis.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
"KeyFin wrote:
Your math fails because your hypothesis fails- Burrow is a generational quarterback. You don't know that yet because there's too small of a sample size, where the average fan can see it plainly. cBrad made that argument repeatedly about Russell Wilson- he can excel without an offensive line, so that makes the line statistically irrelevant.
Only, Burrow or Wilson are not starting for all 32 NFL teams...that's where this entire line of thinking falls apart. What Burrow did this season does not correlate to what the vast majority of quarterbacks have done over the last 50+ years. It didn't correlate in college either, because he's a rare talent.
It's sort of like people robbing a bank. They do it once and get away with it, so they assume there's no reason not to do it again. So they do it over and over again until eventually getting caught. The outlier is not them getting caught one time out of 3 or 10 or 50 attempts; that's the foregone conclusion. The outlier is that they started with a flawed hypothesis that crime pays and they'd never get caught.
So let's state the obvious why your theory is ridiculous- Burrow missed a large portion of last year after a brutal hit behind the line of scrimmage. He's an elite, generational quarterback but just like in the other scenario I presented, not protecting him makes injury a foregone conclusion sooner or later. Some QBs don't come back from an injury like that- which makes his 2nd year all the more remarkable.
Anyway, Burrow is not the ideal "baseline" to form a league-wide hypothesis.
You're combatting the finding in post #41 while supporting it with what you're saying at the same time. The fact that QBs like Burrow and Wilson exist -- those who can excel without stellar offensive lines -- combined with the QBs at the other end of the spectrum -- the ones who wouldn't be helped sufficiently by even the best of offensive lines -- is precisely why the finding is what it is, i.e., the relative independence of QB and OL play. QBs don't depend largely on offensive lines on a season-long basis. Burrow is merely an example of that independence.
You're misunderstanding the point, and so you believe the Burrow example actually contradicts it, whereas it supports it.
"cbrad wrote:
I think Chase certainly helped a lot, but let's not forget that the greatest improvement in passer rating tends to take place from year 1 to year 2, and you usually don't see a change of 18+ passer rating points just with the addition of an elite WR. In this case I think most of the improvement is in Burrow himself.
Right, this is why at the end of the post you quoted I noted that the Dolphins need better QB and receiver play. Burrow's improvement this year certainly wasn't entirely attributable to Chase. My point is that the Dolphins are likely to do better in the passing game by improving the receiving corps than by improving the offensive line. Hopefully they can do both and get improvement from Tua as well.
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
You're misunderstanding the point, and so you believe the Burrow example actually contradicts it, whereas it supports it.
Again, Burrow missed half the 2020 season from a brutal hit in the pocket. He threw for zero yards and zero TD passes from his rehab facility. You can't conveniently ignore that little fact when claiming the offensive line doesn't matter.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
Right, this is why at the end of the post you quoted I noted that the Dolphins need better QB and receiver play. Burrow's improvement this year certainly wasn't entirely attributable to Chase. My point is that the Dolphins are likely to do better in the passing game by improving the receiving corps than by improving the offensive line. Hopefully they can do both and get improvement from Tua as well.
It should not be hopefully. They absolutely need to improve BOTH. Neglecting any part of the team is a big mistake. I understand resources are not endless, but no part of the team should be neglected just because you know, stats.
When you let one part of the team's talent and play degrade to horrendous levels like this year's offensive line, it affects your whole team.
"KeyFin wrote:
Again, Burrow missed half the 2020 season from a brutal hit in the pocket. He threw for zero yards and zero TD passes from his rehab facility. You can't conveniently ignore that little fact when claiming the offensive line doesn't matter.
According to the best measures we have, the Bengals' offensive line didn't change from 2020 to 2021, yet Burrow's performance improved substantially. And the point isn't that "the offensive line doesn't matter" -- it's that the variation in offensive line play throughout the league pales in comparison to the variation in QB and receiver play and therefore can't possibly affect the passing game league-wide to the degree those other facets of the game do.
Again consider the effect of the offensive line on the passing game throughout the league if hypothetically every offensive line played exactly the same -- the effect would be nil. The degree to which offensive lines do vary in reality isn't sufficient to make them anywhere near as impactful as QB and receiver play, where there is far greater variation among teams. Do you really believe the Dolphins' offensive line is just as worse than the best offensive line in the league as Zach Wilson is worse than Aaron Rodgers? If you do, you're wrong. The best offensive line in the league is not that much better than the Dolphins' line.
What fuels perceptions such as yours is the idea that when you watch the Dolphins' offensive line play poorly, you suspect that other offensive lines are head and shoulders better. They aren't head and shoulders better -- they're better to a far lesser degree than you believe, because the variation among offensive line play throughout the league isn't all that great. When you watch games like regular season game #2 against the Bills this year for example, realize that many teams have games like that throughout the year -- you're not watching a one-team, one-game anomaly.
"hitman8 wrote:
It should not be hopefully. They absolutely need to improve BOTH. Neglecting any part of the team is a big mistake. I understand resources are not endless, but no part of the team should be neglected just because you know, stats.
When you let one part of the team's talent and play degrade to horrendous levels like this year's offensive line, it affects your whole team.
The Bengals' offensive line played at roughly the same level this year yet they were 9th in the league in pass efficiency and are playing to go to the Super Bowl this weekend. You're overestimating the effect of an offensive line that plays at that level.
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
The Bengals' offensive line played at roughly the same level this year yet they were 9th in the league in pass efficiency and are playing to go to the Super Bowl this weekend. You're overestimating the effect of an offensive line that plays at that level.
News flash, we don't have Burrow and Chase. That level of talent at QB and receiver is hard to come by, especially this coming off-season. So if you want our offense to not be horrendous next year like it was this year, then we better damn well improve the offensive line significantly.
Another news flash, the Bengals offensive line this year was ranked 20th in the NFL, so they are not that bad. The dolphins OL on the other hand was ranked dead last.
One more news flash, 3 out of the 4 teams left in the playoffs have offensive lines ranked Top 7 in the NFL (SF #3, Chiefs #5, Rams #7). So yeah, I think having a good online is pretty damn important, especially if you don't have an elite QB.
Hire McDaniel, trade for Ridley, sign a veteran center, re-sign Gesicki, draft Trevor Penning (RT) in the 1st, draft Breece Hall (RB) in the 2nd.
"hitman8 wrote:
News flash, we don't have Burrow and Chase. That level of talent at QB and receiver is hard to come by, especially this coming off-season. So if you want our offense to not be horrendous next year like it was this year, then we better damn well improve the offensive line significantly.
What you don't seem to realize is that there is no degree of offensive line improvement that will make this team play like we want it to unless it somehow does get far more "Burrow and Chase-like" at QB and receiver. You're ascribing a level of influence to offensive line play that it simply doesn't have in the NFL.
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
What you don't seem to realize is that there is no degree of offensive line improvement that will make this team play like we want it to unless it somehow does get far more "Burrow and Chase-like" at QB and receiver. You're ascribing a level of influence to offensive line play that it simply doesn't have in the NFL.
You need at least a decent level of offensive line play in order to compete for the SB, as evidenced by the four teams left competing this year and most years. And the worse your QB is, the better your offensive line play should be if you want to compete.
We have been neglecting the oline for years. Until we fix the oline, or stumble upon a phenomenal elite talent at QB, we will continue to suck on offense. We should actually strive to do both, but there are no elite QBs available in the draft or free agency, so we better get to work on improving the oline this off-season if we don't want to be horrendous next year, again.
Yeah we literally have no other option other than to roll with Tua next year. Now if we take a flyer on Mitchell Trubisky so be it, but don't expect him to be the answer either. Reclamation projects like that almost never work out.
So, lets just assume Tua is cemented as the starter next year. The best case scenario for Tua to succeed would be to improve the offensive line as much as possible along with getting him a durable running back that is talented enough to run between the tackles, but also carry the ball 20 times in a game if needed. Malcolm Brown is not that dude. This may sound crazy, but I would see if Ezekiel Elliott or yeah...Saquan Barkley are available for trade. One has some wear on his tires while the other has had some injury issues. Both are incredibly talented backs and the last time we traded for a talented back that had some question marks about his game, the result was a good one in Ricky Williams. Otherwise, we need to spend a high pick on a running back...As in a second round pick. Doing that is probably the better way to go as opposed to finding a veteran for the job (although I do like Zeke and Barkley if they become available). Of course... Grier will probably do something totally out of context (but within his character) and draft a safety that was projected to go in round 5 with our second round pick. He certainly hasn't failed us there. I mean...Hunter Long right?
We need to live in reality and the reality is that...We need a bell cow at running back, and we need to improve the offensive line. I really like the young talent we have on the O line right now. I just think they need time to improve and grow up, but adding a veteran mainstay definitely wouldn't hurt. Drafting another one in the first round would also be beneficial.
At this point...Theoretically...Tua would have some insulation on his side of the ball. A competent line and a talented running back would be his best case scenario for improvement. I think Parker, Waddle, and Gesicki are talented enough at their positions, but it also wouldn't hurt to sign a veteran wideout to add to the group. One that is preferably durable, but again...Grier will probably double down on Fuller because Fuller likes the same marvel character that Grier likes and that will be that.
I speak of living in reality and I feel like neither Ross nor Grier do as such. I think they make moves based off of emotion and they do so in a subjective manner. It's a harsh accusation I am going to make, but I feel like they judge players more on their personal beliefs, and character then they do for their skills on the field. Obviously you want your players to be good people, but when you are in the business of winning, then your job is to build a winner and if that means drafting the defensive end that sacked the quarterback and then stole his girlfriend from him then so be it. This franchise needs to draft football players, not people who agree with Ross's personal agendas. Everyone around here has been saying that Ross wants a "yes man" for a coach. I imagine the feeling is mutual with players. In other words...He wants players that do the same. He wants a "family" environment. You'll never build a winning team with that approach. You'll never run a successful business with that approach either.
How about in an effort to move this beyond high-level strategy we try to talk about upgrading what we actually have.
Where do you want to spend picks or bring in free agents?
More picks on the OL? Or a free agent? Which position?
WRs/TEs - who do you keep, who do you replace, and from the draft or FA?
How do we grow, realistically, from what we've got now, and assuming Tua is our QB this year (if that affects your choices, maybe not)?
Here's what we've got:
Round 1: Selection No. 26 (from 49ers in pick swap)
Round 2: Selection No. 50
Round 3 comp: Selection No. 100 (from 49ers in pick swap)
Round 4: Selection No. 117
Round 4: Selection No. 121 (from Steelers in pick swap)
Round 5: Selection No. 156
Round 6: Selection No. 200
Round 7: Selection No. 221 (from Texans in Greg Mancz trade)
And here are the 2022 Free Agents:
WR - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac
TE - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac
"Although we are capable of great acts of kindness, history teaches us that we sometimes need saving from ourselves – from our recklessness or our greed. God sent into the world a unique person – neither a philosopher nor a general, important though they are, but a Saviour, with the power to forgive... It is my prayer that on this Christmas day we might all find room in our lives for the message of the angels and for the love of God through Christ our Lord." (Christmas message, 2011)
"Although we are capable of great acts of kindness, history teaches us that we sometimes need saving from ourselves – from our recklessness or our greed. God sent into the world a unique person – neither a philosopher nor a general, important though they are, but a Saviour, with the power to forgive... It is my prayer that on this Christmas day we might all find room in our lives for the message of the angels and for the love of God through Christ our Lord." (Christmas message, 2011)
Best case scenario for Tua? Early retirement.
This team isn't about to hire a head coach that will benefit his career or actually help him improve. Heck, if that defensive player that spoke out thought he was wasting his career with Tua he needs to look at the bigger picture. It's the entire organization wasting his career; not just Tua. You couldn't pay me enough to be a part of this dumpster fire of an organization right now because it appears unless you're one of Ross' chosen few; you're on the outside looking in.

1972 Miami Dolphins-The ONLY undefeated team in NFL history!!!
"brandon27 wrote:
Best case scenario for Tua? Early retirement.
This team isn't about to hire a head coach that will benefit his career or actually help him improve.
I think they have to support Tua now more than ever for 2022. We do have two 1sts in 2023, so if we're not committed to Tua, you'll see us trade the kid and both those picks this off-season for Rodgers, Wilson, Watson...someone. But if Tua makes it to day 1 of training camp, I'd expect him to be a virtual lock.
In terms of his future, I have nothing to say that I haven't said already. Get him more than one reliable target. Get him a RB. Get him a line (and a line coach). Keep the backup on the bench on 3rd and 1. Stop getting cute with the Wildcat. Just let the kid play and grow in a system with the right pieces around him.
I mean, if you look at this objectively, what names on offense would start for any of the other 31 teams in the league? Nobody on the offensive line (at least today). Nobody besides Waddle at WR. None of the RB's. Gisecki might start as a slot receiver....the rest of the TE's wouldn't start. It really just is Tua and Waddle, and that's not an offense.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
"cbrad wrote:
For Tua I agree you need to give him better pass protection. We should prioritize OL and RB in the draft and WR in FA (much better pickings there), but in the end it's not about what's best for Tua. It's about what's best for the team, and the threshold for me is ~100 passer rating next year for Tua or you trade him and go after another QB.
In terms of what we're talking about now, that's indeed the issue, because you could very well base your personnel strategy on maximizing the performance of Tua specifically, in a way that would actually undermine the team if Tua can't improve enough himself.
Again consider the weak impact of offensive line play, relatively speaking. The team could believe Tua needs the best offensive line in the league to function adequately, and then pour lots of resources into the line, only to find out that Tua's individual ceiling is too low and his performance isn't a function of offensive line play. At that point the team has lots of resources tied up in the offensive line and can't put them toward more important areas. The same could happen with a running back, a dime-a-dozen position that has no relationship with QB performance unless we're talking about only Derrick Henry perhaps.
What I would do is get a solid tight end who can play inline, block well, and also be a big reliable target over the middle. A Mark Andrews type. That will translate across QBs and offensive systems and not be hooked to Tua specifically for its merit. Same thing at receiver -- go get the go-to dominating type the best teams have (Adams, Chase, Hill, Kupp, Diggs). That translates beyond Tua and whatever system benefits him.
As far as the offensive line goes, I would do whatever makes it simply average. Go get a quality (good but not exceptional) center and a right tackle. Leave the rest alone. They've put enough resources into Hunt, Eichenberg, and Jackson. Continue to pay those players peanuts on their rookie contracts while they develop, and direct the salary cap money they save elsewhere. Whatever QB this team has, whether it's Tua or someone they move on to, he should be able to function fine behind a merely average offensive line.
"Galant wrote:
How about in an effort to move this beyond high-level strategy we try to talk about upgrading what we actually have.
Where do you want to spend picks or bring in free agents?
More picks on the OL? Or a free agent? Which position?
WRs/TEs - who do you keep, who do you replace, and from the draft or FA?How do we grow, realistically, from what we've got now, and assuming Tua is our QB this year (if that affects your choices, maybe not)?
Here's what we've got:
Round 1: Selection No. 26 (from 49ers in pick swap)
Round 2: Selection No. 50
Round 3 comp: Selection No. 100 (from 49ers in pick swap)
Round 4: Selection No. 117
Round 4: Selection No. 121 (from Steelers in pick swap)
Round 5: Selection No. 156
Round 6: Selection No. 200
Round 7: Selection No. 221 (from Texans in Greg Mancz trade)And here are the 2022 Free Agents:
WR - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac
TE - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac
I think this deserves its own thread. If it’s under the frame of Tua, it’s going to continue to stay in the Tua isn’t the answer vs he doesn’t have pieces around him debate that won’t go away until we find out either way.
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
In terms of what we're talking about now, that's indeed the issue, because you could very well base your personnel strategy on maximizing the performance of Tua specifically, in a way that would actually undermine the team if Tua can't improve enough himself.
Again consider the weak impact of offensive line play, relatively speaking. The team could believe Tua needs the best offensive line in the league to function adequately, and then pour lots of resources into the line, only to find out that Tua's individual ceiling is too low and his performance isn't a function of offensive line play. At that point the team has lots of resources tied up in the offensive line and can't put them toward more important areas. The same could happen with a running back, a dime-a-dozen position that has no relationship with QB performance unless we're talking about only Derrick Henry perhaps.
What I would do is get a solid tight end who can play inline, block well, and also be a big reliable target over the middle. A Mark Andrews type. That will translate across QBs and offensive systems and not be hooked to Tua specifically for its merit. Same thing at receiver -- go get the go-to dominating type the best teams have (Adams, Chase, Hill, Kupp, Diggs). That translates beyond Tua and whatever system benefits him.
As far as the offensive line goes, I would do whatever makes it simply average. Go get a quality (good but not exceptional) center and a right tackle. Leave the rest alone. They've put enough resources into Hunt, Eichenberg, and Jackson. Continue to pay those players peanuts on their rookie contracts while they develop, and direct the salary cap money they save elsewhere. Whatever QB this team has, whether it's Tua or someone they move on to, he should be able to function fine behind a merely average offensive line.
I am willing to spend a couple years of us saying "man our offensive line is actually too good" just to mix things up a bit
"Dolfanalyst wrote:
In terms of what we're talking about now, that's indeed the issue, because you could very well base your personnel strategy on maximizing the performance of Tua specifically, in a way that would actually undermine the team if Tua can't improve enough himself.
Again consider the weak impact of offensive line play, relatively speaking. The team could believe Tua needs the best offensive line in the league to function adequately, and then pour lots of resources into the line, only to find out that Tua's individual ceiling is too low and his performance isn't a function of offensive line play. At that point the team has lots of resources tied up in the offensive line and can't put them toward more important areas. The same could happen with a running back, a dime-a-dozen position that has no relationship with QB performance unless we're talking about only Derrick Henry perhaps.
What I would do is get a solid tight end who can play inline, block well, and also be a big reliable target over the middle. A Mark Andrews type. That will translate across QBs and offensive systems and not be hooked to Tua specifically for its merit. Same thing at receiver -- go get the go-to dominating type the best teams have (Adams, Chase, Hill, Kupp, Diggs). That translates beyond Tua and whatever system benefits him.
As far as the offensive line goes, I would do whatever makes it simply average. Go get a quality (good but not exceptional) center and a right tackle. Leave the rest alone. They've put enough resources into Hunt, Eichenberg, and Jackson. Continue to pay those players peanuts on their rookie contracts while they develop, and direct the salary cap money they save elsewhere. Whatever QB this team has, whether it's Tua or someone they move on to, he should be able to function fine behind a merely average offensive line.
You sound like someone who used to post here often.
I believe that the idea that QB play is unaffected by the oline is ludicrous. Of course it's affected.
"resnor wrote:
You sound like someone who used to post here often.
I believe that the idea that QB play is unaffected by the oline is ludicrous. Of course it's affected.
Winning football games at any level comes down to winning in the trenches.
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