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2022 Best Case Scenario for Tua

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 25, 2022.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This is where stats start to become more reliable than humans. So many fans of teams say they're the "worst by far" in X or Y. But fans generally don't watch all games by other teams, and even if they did they don't have perfect memory and are obviously biased.

    Pass Block Win Rate also showed Miami dead last, but it wasn't by a huge margin. Miami's PBWR was 47% while two other teams (Cinci and Pitt) were pretty close at 49%. I think we all saw Cinci's low PBWR! So yes Miami was last, but not by much:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...opping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings
     
  2. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    What you're saying above is about like saying the Dolphins woes in the passing game in 2021 were attributable to their punting. Punting has such a weak relationship with the passing game that having even the best punter in the league wouldn't have made a difference (and of course we all know that). Obviously in contrast to the punter, the offensive line has some influence on the passing game, but not enough for a "non-scrub" (i.e., merely average) offensive line to have made this year's passing offense play at a high level.

    Based on the info in post #41, an improvement in the Dolphins' passing efficiency of just a standard deviation would've required a five standard deviation improvement in the Dolphins' pass blocking grade. That improvement in their pass blocking would've taken them from 22nd in the league to 11th in pass efficiency, right behind Arizona at 10th. But good luck getting a five standard deviation improvement in your OL pass blocking grade -- that ain't happening for any team, as that degree of improvement is greater than the range of OL pass blocking grades league-wide in 2018 (part of the sample used in post #41).

    What's more realistic is that they get a three standard deviation improvement in their OL pass blocking grade, which would make them about league average in pass blocking and would move them to right around 16th in the league in pass efficiency. Still not good enough to make them likely to be one of the teams going deep in the playoffs.

    Obviously they need help at QB and receiver -- improvements there would yield far greater improvements in the passing game in 2022.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Was Miami winning at 47% when Tua was knocked out of the game early on? He took 5 snaps total and was under pressure on all five. So it's great to say Miami and Cinci were about the same at year's end, but that's not the complete story. That's just how the story ended.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Apparently we were at 55% after week 1 and a lot of teams were worse:


    Adding 4 extra plays in there isn't going to change much. Regardless, you don't cherry pick a few plays to make a general claim about our OL. At minimum you need large sample size. You can see with those numbers how much PBWR varies among teams. That's the effect of small sample size. So how it ended is really the most appropriate measure because you have the necessary sample size.
     
  5. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    This is why pass blocking has the meager relationship it does with passing efficiency league-wide over whole seasons -- because the variation you're talking about in offensive line play during single games doesn't translate to the entire season. Teams don't vary in offensive line play over the season to the degree that they vary in single games or in stretches of plays like the ones noted above. For every game like the Dolphins had against Buffalo there are more teams than one might imagine having similar games at times. Consequently the variation in offensive line play over the season is smaller than the variation that game might suggest.
     
  6. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    Wanted to explore this so I did it with the 2018 season and found the following:

    84.5% of the variance in EPA per pass dropback explained, with all independent variables statistically significant.

    Standardized regression coefficients:

    PFF season QB grades: 0.338
    Season PBWR: 0.203
    PFF season team receiving grades: 0.579

    Correlation between PBWR and PFF's season OL grades was 0.60 and significant.

    So even when using PBWR, we're still needing a 5 SD improvement for a 1 SD increase in EPA per pass dropback.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah good you did that, but you're still relying on PFF grades for QB and WR. Ideally you only use stats to estimate the relative variances in performance. Not sure one can get "WR unit" stats independent enough of "QB stats" from widely available statistics, so I think the only way to solve this problem is to do something like what Amazon's Next Gen Stats is aiming for.

    For example, they've looked at how completion probability changes given pass rusher separation (from the QB), air distance, target separation, etc. That kind of model automatically solves the problem of estimating the effect of each unit on a given passing stat. You could do the same for effect on passer rating or EPA per pass dropback, etc. and answer the question that way.
    https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, but those five snaps knocked our QB out for a month...which had a direct effect on the backup QB who didn't have the reps with the line. Which made the line's job more difficult...when they were already over their heads. Stats give you zero context, and you can't say trust the stats while ignoring what actually happened.

    Those five snaps lead to five straight losses. Numbers can't tell you that though.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tua was taken out in week 2. He played five snaps...he got leveled on 5 snaps. Pretty easy math there.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Stats give you tons of context. Every adjustment for era, or showing performance relative to expected in that down, distance and game situation is doing far more to give you accurate contextual information than most humans can do. See how well you can estimate probability of winning from game context.

    Hard to say knocking out Tua "led to five straight losses" when we lost games against some of the weakest teams in Jacksonville and Atlanta when he came back. The "numbers" help show you that.

    Yeah, but the OL wasn't playing "the worst by far" in the NFL up to that time.
     
  11. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    If such events were likely as a function of offensive line deficiencies, then the relationship between offensive line play and pass efficiency throughout the league would be far stronger. It must be that such events are largely random (and/or unlikely) and therefore unrelated to the quality of offensive line play over whole seasons. It's entirely possible that if we charted the occurrences of such QB injuries historically, we'd find that the team with the best offensive line in the league has been just as likely as the team with the worst one to surrender such plays. When something requires only a single play to happen, obviously it becomes far more difficult to attribute that event to a systematic variable like offensive line quality.

    Hell, that kind of play can happen when the best offensive lineman on the team with the best offensive line in the league simply has a lapse in performance on one play. And of course it could've been just as easily the case that the Dolphins could've played the whole 2021 season without having such an injury -- would we have then concluded their offensive line was "good"?
     
  12. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    The oline was absolutely horrendous against buffalo, while not that bad in the first game against New England. As much as you want to paint it that way, stats and analytics don't give you the complete picture and context in every situation. Again, it's a nice tool to have, but whoever swears by them and completely ignores common sense because of them, is a fool.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yes the OL was horrendous vs. Buffalo. And no I never said stats and analytics give you a complete picture. However, to think that somehow what KeyFin was suggesting is closer to reality than what the stats suggest "ignores common sense".

    You really think our OL was "by far the worst" in the NFL with no one close? Strains credibility. You really think most QBs would be knocked out for 5 straight games from the hit Tua took and that we should just blame the OL and not partly blame the QB? Strains credibility. You really want to paint the 5 losses after that as due to losing Tua? Strains credibility. You really think "stats give you no context"??? Factually incorrect. Right now, the OL stats I posted are painting a far more realistic picture than the arguments KeyFin is making.
     
  14. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    The point is that there are other teams throughout the league that had similar games at times during the 2021 season, and that decreases the variation among offensive lines throughout the league over the whole season. When that happens it becomes more difficult to attribute passing game performance to offensive line play over the duration of seasons. Certainly you don't think the Dolphins are the only team in the league in 2021 whose offensive line had a game like it did against Buffalo.

    Consider the hypothetical example in which offensive lines throughout the league didn't vary at all -- under those conditions it would be impossible for offensive lines to cause variation in passing game performance. The reality of the situation is that they don't vary enough to cause anywhere near the variation in passing game performance as do other passing game variables. Again, the difference between the best and worst QBs in the league is a whole lot bigger than the difference between the best and worst offensive lines in the league.
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What do you mean "If such events were likely as a function..." Tua took a snap and got LEVELED...five plays in a row. What else would it be a function of? The Easter Bunny? Nobody here needs stats to say why Tua got hurt. It was plainly obvious to anyone, regardless whether or not they knew the 1st thing about football.
     
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  16. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    Read the sentence you quoted again: “If such events were likely…”

    That’s precisely the problem in measuring offensive line play as a function of quarterback injuries: they aren’t likely. The best offensive line the league is probably just as likely to produce a quarterback injury as the worst one, and that likelihood for either line is extremely low.

    In other words, quarterback injuries don’t distinguish poor lines from good ones.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2022
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Again, Tua took 5 snaps in that game and got leveled 5 times. That doesn't mean Tua has an 80% survival rate against unblocked defenders. It means if your QB gets hit enough, he'll eventually stop getting up.

    This is not a math problem. As you can see from the likes of other poster here, they agree that you don't need a statistician to explain why your QB got knocked out. It is very much common sense.
     
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  18. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    Nobody is debating the cause of the pressure and its relationship with the injury -- yes that isn't a math problem. What I'm debating is whether teams should base the allocation of limited resources (draft picks, salary cap) on whether it functions to prevent such injuries, and in that sense it is a math problem.

    Consider that the next-worst team in the league in pass block win rate in 2021 (Pittsburgh, at 49%, up just 2% from the Dolphins' 47%) just went through a season without its QB being injured at all. We would need to know the likelihood of such injuries as a function of the quality of offensive line play to determine whether improving the offensive line for that purpose -- at the expense of improving other areas -- would be a sound personnel strategy. It's entirely possible you could improve the offensive line with that purpose in mind and be just as likely to have a QB injury.

    My guess is that such injuries are so infrequent and random that they bear no significant relationship to offensive line play. It would be like making a decision about replacing a running back on the basis of whether he experienced a fumble that was recovered and returned for a touchdown to lose a big game -- that event is so infrequent and random that it likely bears no relationship to the quality of the running back. You could very well be replacing Derrick Henry on the basis of that event (if it just so happened to occur with him), or you could be deciding to keep the worst running back in the league because that didn't happen to him.

    In other words, random and infrequent events can't dictate your personnel strategy.
     
  19. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    If we assume that to provide a best case scenario with Tua (and, evidently, any QB) is to improve the passing game, and let's say we focus in on getting better wide receivers.

    Is there best 'type' of WR, or is the good indicator/predictor for WR success, that would help Miami make that upgrade?

    As an aside, the fact that Miami came out bottom (or top) of the league in aggressive passes seems to indicate that either by receiver talent or play calling/design, they weren't getting the results they planned for this year - more separation. I'd have to see if I can find a break down on separation for Miami's receivers.
     
  20. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    The above is a good study in what I've been talking about here. In 2020 Cincinnati's pass block win rate was 29th in the league at 50%. Joe Burrow was injured that year, and it was widely thought they needed to improve their pass protection to facilitate Burrow's development and their passing game. Instead of taking Penei Sewell, a very highly-touted left tackle, they took the highest regarded receiver available, Ja'Marr Chase, with the 5th overall pick in 2021.

    Lo and behold this year Cincinnati's pass block win rate was very slightly worse, at 49%. One would think Burrow and the pass offense simply stagnated or got worse, correct?

    Not in the least -- Cincinnati's pass efficiency (EPA per pass dropback) went from 26th to 9th in the league. How did that happen?

    Burrow's PFF QB grade went from 19th in the league at 75.1 to first in the league at 92.4. Chase was inserted into their receiving corps and became the 8th-highest graded receiver in the league by PFF.

    So one can see with this example how these three variables (QB, OL, and receivers) work in the passing game -- no change in Cincinnati's OL pass blocking, whereas plenty of change in QB and receiver functioning, to the tune of a vast improvement in pass efficiency.

    Now, can they (and do they need to) improve more with better offensive line play? Certainly. But the degree of positive change in their passing game from 2020 to 2021 illustrates just how little an impact pass blocking can have on a team over a season-long duration.

    The Dolphins need better QB and receiver play.
     
  21. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    NFL.com's Next Gen Stats lists separation for receivers. - https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-cushion
    3 Miami receivers qualified to be listed. (Minimum 45 Targets (5 Targets, Multiplied By Number of Weeks, Divided By 2))

    Out of 127 players:

    Average Separation (SEP)
    The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion.
    upload_2022-1-28_16-41-7.png
    Devante was worst for separation with 1.7
    Gesicki 80th
    Waddle 39th.

    This is Cushion:
    Average Cushion (CUSH)The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the defender they’re lined up against at the time of snap on all targets.
    upload_2022-1-28_16-48-46.png

    % Targeted of Team's Air Yards:
    The sum of the receivers total intended air yards (all attempts) over the sum of his team’s total intended air yards. Represented as a percentage, this statistic represents how much of a team’s deep yards does the player account for.
    upload_2022-1-28_16-52-6.png

    Average Targeted Air Yards:
    The average passing air yards per target for the receiver, by measuring the yards downfield at the time of all passing attempts that the receiver is the target. This stat indicates how far down the field they are being targeted on average.
    upload_2022-1-28_17-10-4.png

    Yards after catch per reception:
    upload_2022-1-28_16-58-28.png

    AVG YAC Above Expectation:
    Expected YAC = The expected yards after catch, based on numerous factors using tracking data such as how open the receiver is, how fast they’re traveling, how many defenders/blockers are in space, etc
    upload_2022-1-28_17-3-53.png
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think Chase certainly helped a lot, but let's not forget that the greatest improvement in passer rating tends to take place from year 1 to year 2, and you usually don't see a change of 18+ passer rating points just with the addition of an elite WR. In this case I think most of the improvement is in Burrow himself. Burrow is the one true elite QB that came out from the 2020 draft, with Herbert possibly following in the future. Cinci's points per game was 29th and is now 7th. That's what an elite QB, and also in this case an elite WR, can give you even with a crap OL. Cinci now has the luxury of focusing on building a better defense. Their offense only needs minor improvement.

    As far as the Dolphins, what we need most is an elite QB. We already have a very good and potentially elite WR in Waddle. Granted we need one more really good WR but the primary problem with the Dolphins is at QB. Tua has one more year to prove it that's it.

    People here keep making excuses like you need to build a good OL, running game etc. but that usually doesn't get you far unless you have a QB that can play at a high level WITHOUT those factors, especially in the playoffs where you're probably going to face at least one defense that will force you to do that. Just see Tennessee for a great example of a very well built team without the QB. We shouldn't try copying that approach. As hard as it is to find the elite QB that's what you need. Maybe FA can help? Otherwise Tua has one final year and if he fails you spend as much draft capital to get the next top prospect.
     
  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    @cbrad this being a thread about getting the most out of Tua, what would your recommendations be towards that end?
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    For Tua I agree you need to give him better pass protection. We should prioritize OL and RB in the draft and WR in FA (much better pickings there), but in the end it's not about what's best for Tua. It's about what's best for the team, and the threshold for me is ~100 passer rating next year for Tua or you trade him and go after another QB.
     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your math fails because your hypothesis fails- Burrow is a generational quarterback. You don't know that yet because there's too small of a sample size, where the average fan can see it plainly. cBrad made that argument repeatedly about Russell Wilson- he can excel without an offensive line, so that makes the line statistically irrelevant.

    Only, Burrow or Wilson are not starting for all 32 NFL teams...that's where this entire line of thinking falls apart. What Burrow did this season does not correlate to what the vast majority of quarterbacks have done over the last 50+ years. It didn't correlate in college either, because he's a rare talent.

    It's sort of like people robbing a bank. They do it once and get away with it, so they assume there's no reason not to do it again. So they do it over and over again until eventually getting caught. The outlier is not them getting caught one time out of 3 or 10 or 50 attempts; that's the foregone conclusion. The outlier is that they started with a flawed hypothesis that crime pays and they'd never get caught.

    So let's state the obvious why your theory is ridiculous- Burrow missed a large portion of last year after a brutal hit behind the line of scrimmage. He's an elite, generational quarterback but just like in the other scenario I presented, not protecting him makes injury a foregone conclusion sooner or later. Some QBs don't come back from an injury like that- which makes his 2nd year all the more remarkable.

    Anyway, Burrow is not the ideal "baseline" to form a league-wide hypothesis.
     
  26. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    You're combatting the finding in post #41 while supporting it with what you're saying at the same time. The fact that QBs like Burrow and Wilson exist -- those who can excel without stellar offensive lines -- combined with the QBs at the other end of the spectrum -- the ones who wouldn't be helped sufficiently by even the best of offensive lines -- is precisely why the finding is what it is, i.e., the relative independence of QB and OL play. QBs don't depend largely on offensive lines on a season-long basis. Burrow is merely an example of that independence.

    You're misunderstanding the point, and so you believe the Burrow example actually contradicts it, whereas it supports it.
     
  27. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    Right, this is why at the end of the post you quoted I noted that the Dolphins need better QB and receiver play. Burrow's improvement this year certainly wasn't entirely attributable to Chase. My point is that the Dolphins are likely to do better in the passing game by improving the receiving corps than by improving the offensive line. Hopefully they can do both and get improvement from Tua as well.
     
  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Again, Burrow missed half the 2020 season from a brutal hit in the pocket. He threw for zero yards and zero TD passes from his rehab facility. You can't conveniently ignore that little fact when claiming the offensive line doesn't matter.
     
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  29. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    It should not be hopefully. They absolutely need to improve BOTH. Neglecting any part of the team is a big mistake. I understand resources are not endless, but no part of the team should be neglected just because you know, stats.

    When you let one part of the team's talent and play degrade to horrendous levels like this year's offensive line, it affects your whole team.
     
  30. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    According to the best measures we have, the Bengals' offensive line didn't change from 2020 to 2021, yet Burrow's performance improved substantially. And the point isn't that "the offensive line doesn't matter" -- it's that the variation in offensive line play throughout the league pales in comparison to the variation in QB and receiver play and therefore can't possibly affect the passing game league-wide to the degree those other facets of the game do.

    Again consider the effect of the offensive line on the passing game throughout the league if hypothetically every offensive line played exactly the same -- the effect would be nil. The degree to which offensive lines do vary in reality isn't sufficient to make them anywhere near as impactful as QB and receiver play, where there is far greater variation among teams. Do you really believe the Dolphins' offensive line is just as worse than the best offensive line in the league as Zach Wilson is worse than Aaron Rodgers? If you do, you're wrong. The best offensive line in the league is not that much better than the Dolphins' line.

    What fuels perceptions such as yours is the idea that when you watch the Dolphins' offensive line play poorly, you suspect that other offensive lines are head and shoulders better. They aren't head and shoulders better -- they're better to a far lesser degree than you believe, because the variation among offensive line play throughout the league isn't all that great. When you watch games like regular season game #2 against the Bills this year for example, realize that many teams have games like that throughout the year -- you're not watching a one-team, one-game anomaly.
     
  31. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    The Bengals' offensive line played at roughly the same level this year yet they were 9th in the league in pass efficiency and are playing to go to the Super Bowl this weekend. You're overestimating the effect of an offensive line that plays at that level.
     
  32. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    News flash, we don't have Burrow and Chase. That level of talent at QB and receiver is hard to come by, especially this coming off-season. So if you want our offense to not be horrendous next year like it was this year, then we better damn well improve the offensive line significantly.

    Another news flash, the Bengals offensive line this year was ranked 20th in the NFL, so they are not that bad. The dolphins OL on the other hand was ranked dead last.

    One more news flash, 3 out of the 4 teams left in the playoffs have offensive lines ranked Top 7 in the NFL (SF #3, Chiefs #5, Rams #7). So yeah, I think having a good online is pretty damn important, especially if you don't have an elite QB.
     
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  33. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

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    Hire McDaniel, trade for Ridley, sign a veteran center, re-sign Gesicki, draft Trevor Penning (RT) in the 1st, draft Breece Hall (RB) in the 2nd.
     
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  34. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    What you don't seem to realize is that there is no degree of offensive line improvement that will make this team play like we want it to unless it somehow does get far more "Burrow and Chase-like" at QB and receiver. You're ascribing a level of influence to offensive line play that it simply doesn't have in the NFL.
     
  35. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    You need at least a decent level of offensive line play in order to compete for the SB, as evidenced by the four teams left competing this year and most years. And the worse your QB is, the better your offensive line play should be if you want to compete.

    We have been neglecting the oline for years. Until we fix the oline, or stumble upon a phenomenal elite talent at QB, we will continue to suck on offense. We should actually strive to do both, but there are no elite QBs available in the draft or free agency, so we better get to work on improving the oline this off-season if we don't want to be horrendous next year, again.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2022
  36. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Yeah we literally have no other option other than to roll with Tua next year. Now if we take a flyer on Mitchell Trubisky so be it, but don't expect him to be the answer either. Reclamation projects like that almost never work out.
    So, lets just assume Tua is cemented as the starter next year. The best case scenario for Tua to succeed would be to improve the offensive line as much as possible along with getting him a durable running back that is talented enough to run between the tackles, but also carry the ball 20 times in a game if needed. Malcolm Brown is not that dude. This may sound crazy, but I would see if Ezekiel Elliott or yeah...Saquan Barkley are available for trade. One has some wear on his tires while the other has had some injury issues. Both are incredibly talented backs and the last time we traded for a talented back that had some question marks about his game, the result was a good one in Ricky Williams. Otherwise, we need to spend a high pick on a running back...As in a second round pick. Doing that is probably the better way to go as opposed to finding a veteran for the job (although I do like Zeke and Barkley if they become available). Of course... Grier will probably do something totally out of context (but within his character) and draft a safety that was projected to go in round 5 with our second round pick. He certainly hasn't failed us there. I mean...Hunter Long right?
    We need to live in reality and the reality is that...We need a bell cow at running back, and we need to improve the offensive line. I really like the young talent we have on the O line right now. I just think they need time to improve and grow up, but adding a veteran mainstay definitely wouldn't hurt. Drafting another one in the first round would also be beneficial.
    At this point...Theoretically...Tua would have some insulation on his side of the ball. A competent line and a talented running back would be his best case scenario for improvement. I think Parker, Waddle, and Gesicki are talented enough at their positions, but it also wouldn't hurt to sign a veteran wideout to add to the group. One that is preferably durable, but again...Grier will probably double down on Fuller because Fuller likes the same marvel character that Grier likes and that will be that.
    I speak of living in reality and I feel like neither Ross nor Grier do as such. I think they make moves based off of emotion and they do so in a subjective manner. It's a harsh accusation I am going to make, but I feel like they judge players more on their personal beliefs, and character then they do for their skills on the field. Obviously you want your players to be good people, but when you are in the business of winning, then your job is to build a winner and if that means drafting the defensive end that sacked the quarterback and then stole his girlfriend from him then so be it. This franchise needs to draft football players, not people who agree with Ross's personal agendas. Everyone around here has been saying that Ross wants a "yes man" for a coach. I imagine the feeling is mutual with players. In other words...He wants players that do the same. He wants a "family" environment. You'll never build a winning team with that approach. You'll never run a successful business with that approach either.
     
  37. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    How about in an effort to move this beyond high-level strategy we try to talk about upgrading what we actually have.

    Where do you want to spend picks or bring in free agents?

    More picks on the OL? Or a free agent? Which position?
    WRs/TEs - who do you keep, who do you replace, and from the draft or FA?

    How do we grow, realistically, from what we've got now, and assuming Tua is our QB this year (if that affects your choices, maybe not)?

    Here's what we've got:

    Round 1: Selection No. 26 (from 49ers in pick swap)
    Round 2: Selection No. 50
    Round 3 comp: Selection No. 100 (from 49ers in pick swap)
    Round 4: Selection No. 117
    Round 4: Selection No. 121 (from Steelers in pick swap)
    Round 5: Selection No. 156
    Round 6: Selection No. 200
    Round 7: Selection No. 221 (from Texans in Greg Mancz trade)

    And here are the 2022 Free Agents:

    WR - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

    TE - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

    RB - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

    OL - 2022 NFL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac
     
  38. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  39. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Best case scenario for Tua? Early retirement.

    This team isn't about to hire a head coach that will benefit his career or actually help him improve. Heck, if that defensive player that spoke out thought he was wasting his career with Tua he needs to look at the bigger picture. It's the entire organization wasting his career; not just Tua. You couldn't pay me enough to be a part of this dumpster fire of an organization right now because it appears unless you're one of Ross' chosen few; you're on the outside looking in.
     
    mlb1399 and hitman8 like this.
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think they have to support Tua now more than ever for 2022. We do have two 1sts in 2023, so if we're not committed to Tua, you'll see us trade the kid and both those picks this off-season for Rodgers, Wilson, Watson...someone. But if Tua makes it to day 1 of training camp, I'd expect him to be a virtual lock.

    In terms of his future, I have nothing to say that I haven't said already. Get him more than one reliable target. Get him a RB. Get him a line (and a line coach). Keep the backup on the bench on 3rd and 1. Stop getting cute with the Wildcat. Just let the kid play and grow in a system with the right pieces around him.

    I mean, if you look at this objectively, what names on offense would start for any of the other 31 teams in the league? Nobody on the offensive line (at least today). Nobody besides Waddle at WR. None of the RB's. Gisecki might start as a slot receiver....the rest of the TE's wouldn't start. It really just is Tua and Waddle, and that's not an offense.
     

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