1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

2021 Strength of Schedule

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, May 4, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    15,030
    9,027
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    FWIW
    This is projected based on current rosters and without knowing the scheduled dates for the games.

     
    KeyFin and Unlucky 13 like this.
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,949
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Well, since a lot of the schedule is the same within the division, the key aspects are the three games that are different. Here are the ones for the AFC East. Given the overall strength of the AFC North and the overall mediocrity of the NFC East, a lot of it looks to be a wash at this point. I would probably argue that the Patriots have the hardest overall three games on paper.

    Miami - NY Giants, Baltimore, @ Las Vegas
    Buffalo - Washington, Pittsburgh, @ Kansas City
    New England - Dallas, Cleveland, @ LA Chargers
    NJ Jets - Philadelphia, Cincinnati, @ Denver

    But then the Dolphins have an issue that the rest of the division does not, which is being a team in a tropical climate that will have to play at least one game in cold weather vs a division opponent most likely. So for the Fins more than almost any other team, WHEN the games happen is key.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,617
    10,131
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Vegas at least thinks we'll do well. Right now expected season wins is 9.5. If you look at archived odds (odds right before season begin) the last time the Dolphins had a 9.5 expected wins or better was way back in 2004! We came close in 2015 with 9 expected wins, but if this 9.5+ remains it means that oddsmakers and bettors are starting to view us a bit differently.

    Link to archived odds:
    https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-win/?y=2020&sa=nfl&t=win&o=t

    Standard deviations of the difference between Vegas expected wins and actual wins is generally around 2.5, meaning that if expected wins is 9.5, then actual wins is between 7 and 12 approximately 67% of the time.
     
    Pauly and KeyFin like this.
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,949
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Well, we know what happened in 2004....the end of happiness.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,617
    10,131
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Big time! That was more than 2 standard deviations away from expected. In other words, stuff like that happens less than 5% of the time (either way above or way below expected). So I'm pretty confident we won't see a repeat of that :smile:
     
  6. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,306
    2,164
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Going to go to the Vegas game. 4 1/2 hour drive.
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  7. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,839
    5,803
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I definitely think we had it easy last year. It's hard for me to imagine this year not feeling harder. First off, we had a couple games where the defense took over. I don't see 10 INTs coming from X. Who knows how many TDs the defense scores (if any)? I'd be very surprised if we embarrass anyone the way we did multiple times last year (e.g. SF, LAR, etc.).

    Think about the teams at the top of the draft. We faced the team with the #1 pick. We also faced the team with the #2 pick (twice!). And then we also got to face the team with the #5 pick after they had lost their QB. The cupcake games were as cupcake as they get.

    Then you also consider that we had the fortune of facing the Raiders when their entire D was out with Covid. We faced a 49er team that was without multiple big-name players as well. We also faced NE while they were down and without a few starters on D who opted out. They'll definitely be better this year.

    A lot of things went in Miami's favor last year schedule-wise. I predicted 8-9 wins and they got to 10, but that was on the back of a shocking season with a bunch of craziness which almost always seemed to see the Dolphins coming up on the winning end.

    And then there's the ugly truth. When we did face an elite offense, we actually gave up quite a lot of points. The Seahawks, Chiefs and Bills all threw up big numbers on us, despite the turnovers we generated against them. The Bills flat-out embarrassed us.

    Did the Dolphins actually beat a single elite QB last year? Maybe we can give them K.Murray? Maybe. D.Carr ain't exactly elite. J.Goff was so awesome he got traded, LOL. J.Garoppolo was so amazing the 49ers traded up for a new QB, LOL. J.Herbert played honorably but was still a rookie. And heck, the Dolphins lost to D.Lock.

    Seriously, just who the F did the Dolphins actually beat? They racked up wins against middling QBs spending half the season facing guys like C.Newton, S.Darnold, J.Flacco, G.Minshew, J.Goff, J.Garoppolo, D.Lock, and Cincy's B.Allen.

    That's half the season, LOL. Don't you dare tell me there was a team in the NFL that faced easier opponents than that!

    So when you consider the schedule, I think the hard games will remain hard (e.g. Buffalo) while I'm not exactly sure we can bank on facing the large numbers of below-average QBs we did last year.

    The easier games on our schedule this year are not going to be as easy as those we had last year. The Jets, Jags and Patriots will have all gotten better. In fact, each of those 3 teams got better at QB with 1st round picks: T.Lawrence, Z.Wilson and M.Jones!

    Meanwhile, there are just as many challenging QBs to face if not more: J.Allen (2x), L.Jackson, T.Brady, R.Tannehill, M.Ryan. Even the middle-of-the-road guys can be prolific at times: C.Wentz, D.Carr, J.Winston / T.Hill, etc. And this entirely ignores the Panthers who you'd be a fool to look past. D.Jones doesn't look great, but the weapons around him now do. Fingers crossed he doesn't take the step forward some other QBs have in year 3 (e.g. Mayfield & Allen).

    Home: BUF / NYJ / NE / HOU / IND / CAR / ATL / BAL / NYG
    Away: BUF / NYJ / NE / JAX / NO / OAK / TB / TEN


    I think the Dolphins will get better. But I also think the schedule will be more of a grind for them compared to last year. Expect the other shoe to drop compared with last year's excitement and defensive dominance. I suspect 10-6 might be the upper end of what's possible unless Tua comes out and absolutely blows the doors off.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,949
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Well, I was talking more big picture too. From 1989 to 2003, we never had a losing season and had playoff aspirations most years. Since then, its been a completely different story. From one of the top franchises in the league to never ending mediocrity.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    8,617
    10,131
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I understood that the first time you said it. But the anomaly between Vegas expectations and actual wins only occurred in 2004. Before that year they were generally on target (i.e., within a standard deviation most years). Like I said, years like 2004 occur less than 5% of the time statistically, so the fact Vegas is high on us right now is actually a pretty good sign for the upcoming season.
     
  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,949
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Ok. I dont generally pay much attention to the gambling end.
     
  11. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

    15,778
    9,599
    113
    Dec 19, 2007
    Depending on the date I might be there too, close cousin just moved to Vegas. I'm going to be curious what the tickets go for, their games will probably will be the league's most expensive, thing about the lure for us, get to see the Dolphins in Vegas. Instantly one of the best road trips ever.

    And Dolphins fanbase travels well.
     
    Puka-head and Finatik like this.
  12. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,306
    2,164
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    We can do a Dolphin meet up at one of the "Adult" venues. :smile:
     
    Ronnie Bass and KeyFin like this.
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    If this is correct, what jumps out to me is that there's only 5 cold-weather games total- Jax, Tampa and Tennessee are generally nice year-round. For the past several years, we've had divisional away games to end the season and that's a big disadvantage....hopefully a few of them flip this season and we travel to NY and Buffalo in the Fall.

    Also, weren't we playing overseas this season? Or was that cancelled due to COVID? Those games really seem to throw off the schedule and I'm pretty highly against them.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I might actually be down for that as well- never been to Vegas and it would be one heck of a weekend road trip. Flights to Vegas are dirt cheap as well. Why don't we try to get a group together and pick a hotel to crash for the game? I can think of at least 3 or 4 fans I could talk into going.
     
    Puka-head and Dol-Fan Dupree like this.
  15. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,839
    5,803
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I'm here in upstate SC so I was hoping that maybe we'd play the Falcons in ATL or the Panthers in Charlotte, but of course, nope! Those are both home games for Miami.

    Funny you mention flying to Vegas because, yeah, that's literally the next cheapest alternative given the price of flights, LOL. I know I had a buddy that was interested in spending some vacation hours. He's not a Dolphins fan but he and I had talked about Vegas later in the year. If y'all put anything together keep me posted!
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  16. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,306
    2,164
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    As long as its a weekend I'm not traveling I'm IN. My son is going to fly in from Boise and meet us.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

    35,949
    37,398
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    The game vs the Giants is potentially overseas. That info hasn't been released yet.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    You're here too? Wow! I live in the far northern part of Spartanburg, just before you cross over into North Carolina.

    I often see people with Fins gear around town and wonder if they're on this forum. For example, there's a HUGE Dolphins fans that cooks at Golden Corral in Spartanburg...he grills me on gossip every time I see him. There's several of us here in this area of the country and we definitely need to put together a meet-up one of these days.
     
    Unlucky 13 and DolphinGreg like this.
  19. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4,839
    5,803
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    Good deal! I'm here in Greenville. Grew up nearby. Been here for the last 5 years or so.

    Seems to me a lot of Dolphins fans and their families have just relocated out of South Florida over the years. That was the case for me. I was born down there but didn't live there long. Folks moved shortly after I was born. Several aunts and uncles have followed.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Yup, me too. Grew up down there and finished high school in Davie, FL but moved to the Carolinas shortly after Hurricane Andrew passed through. Still a few family members down there but the majority of them left. It's just a completely different place these days; it doesn't even feel like my hometown anymore.
     
  21. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,306
    2,164
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    I miss Greenville and the Reedy River. Such a quintessential small town feel on main street. I knew the bartender at Reys. She always hooked me up. ALways stayed at the Westin with the big fountain out front.

    We had a plant in Spartenburg at one time. Got to see the Dolphins practice and I brought a Wake jersey and he signed it. You ever go out to Pig Out bbq off New Cut road? Joe Crook was a master. RIP.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,053
    10,321
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I've passed it a million times but never tried it- heard good things about it though.

    Greg, you need to try Mutts BBQ in Greer! It's buffet style southern BBQ with all the country sides and fixings...it is probably one of my favorite restaurants ever. Just do go there when you're too hungry, you might not be able to drive yourself home, LOL.

    I went to that Panthers/Dolphins training camp too- was amazed how many people showed up! The Panthers coach had to ask Miami to put our 2nd string defense in so Cam could complete a pass...we looked like super bowl contenders in those scrimmages! I think I went to the pre-season game too...can't remember for sure.
     
  23. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

    7,494
    3,488
    113
    Feb 10, 2010
    Palm Bay Florida
    We had better NOT be playing overseas again!
     
    KeyFin likes this.

Share This Page