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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 27, 2020.
It's almost like they're trying to give Miami a better pick.
I'll admit that I was pretty worried when they won three our of four games mid season, and their offense looked dangerous. But thankfully, they just fell apart the past four weeks. With nothing to play for next week and facing a Tennessee team that could need to win, we should have a top 4 pick locked up.
If damn Atlanta woulda finished the Chiefs off today...they HAD it, blew it...that woulda been crazy.
Apparently Miami moved up to 3 after the Panthers win? At least that’s what Tankathon has.
Yup, Carolina winning pushed them out of the 3 spot. Falcons SOS is better than the Texans.
Does anyone know if we can finish higher than 3? If we somehow had a top 2 pick we could sell it for a ransom this year.
jaguars already locked the first pick.. and jets locked the second pick jets have 2 wins, next worst teams are cincy, philly, atlanta and houston each with 4 wins
I don't feel bad for them although they made bad deal.Miami has made some bad deals in the past and paid for their mistakes.Such is business.
If Miami ends up with the #3 pick, we need to take that OT, Sewell, and the OL will be in great shape. If the Jets take him, we can try to work a trade down with a team that wants one of the second tier QBs.
If we end up with the 3rd pick I would trade back 2-3 spots and either acquire another high 2nd rounder this year or a 1st rounder next year. At least that's what the draft pick trade value chart says going from 3rd to 5th or 6th is worth (note how much different having the 3rd pick is compared to the 4th pick, on average of course):
We can still pick Ja'Marr Chase at #5 or #6, and this year I think you will find ready suitors for trading up those few spots. Cincinnati has been projected to pick OT Sewell in almost every mock I've seen, and QB Zack Wilson will be a hot commodity as the 3rd QB likely taken given that there are so many QB needy teams. There should be bidders.
And I'd prefer a 1st next year if we do that, especially since it's likely to come from a weak team.
That trade cost chart does not reflect the extra cost of trading up for a QB. Teams have to pay a premium cost for that. We should be getting a 2022 first rounder and a 2021 third rounder -if not a bit more. That's also assuming a bidding war doesn't happen.
We need green bay to win this game tonight... so that the titans play to win next week
It's gotta be Sewell, Chase, or Rousseau.
In a trade-down scenario, DeVonta Smith or Micah Parsons.
Unbelievable. Thank you, BOB.
Wow, potential playoffs and #3 pick. Who do we even take? We’re already 2 OT’s into last draft but I suppose BPA says you take Sewell. I’d love to trade back with someone who falls in love with a QB.
The SOSs are so close between the falcons and texans. Assuming they both lose next week, I wonder if there is a chance the falcons could drop (i.e. take back #3) if their prior opponents all lose their games.
Too much math to figure out right now. Regardless to have a top 5 pick when going 10-6 or 11-5 is amazeballs
Thanks other than the Jets I wasnt sure where everyone else was. For some reason I was thinking Houston was only at 3 wins.
Since there is no absolute stud dominant LB I'd probably look to trade down and pick up whoever I feel is the best WR.
Crazy to think we'd be getting a top 5 pick, but I'll damn sure take it!
If we end up at 3, I wouldn't mind seeing a trade-down to a QB starved team. Not that he'd necessarily be expected to do it, but Belichick trading up to, say, the Falcons spot and snagging a QB, would be terrible...we can help make sure that player's off the board before he can.
Unless they just really want Sewell, probably a trade down would be in order. Doubly so if the Jests go nuts and take Sewell or other non-QB at 2. Could potentially get a big haul, especially if Fields is somehow available.
I'm not big on drafting another tackle, but Sewell may be the exception, bump Austin to RT and let Hunt compete for a guard spot. Failing that, Chase at WR is an obvious fit. Shame there is no elite defensive player ala Chase Young.
So, looking at the standings, a win for either Philadelphia or Cincinnati will guarantee a top-five pick.
The Bengals play Baltimore, and the Eagles meet Washington. I think we have more chance of a Philly win, though, of course, a Cincy victory wouldn’t be unwelcome.
I would look to trade down or take the nation's top WR at #3-5 (Chase, Smith or Waddle). The thing is with 3 elite WR's in this draft, one of them will be there at #10 so it makes sense to me to move this pick if you're thinking offense/WR. If we're thinking defense with that first pick, Micah Parsons, the LB out of Penn St. feels like the surest pick. He's potentially a generational player with excellent speed and vision all over the football field- probably the best overall defensive player in this draft.
Then I'm hoping RB Travis Etienne or Najee Harris drops to our 2nd/3rd pick.
There are actually 4 good receiving prospects: Chase, Smith, Waddle, and the TE Pitts. Unless we make a deep playoff run I can see us getting 2 of them with our 1st rounders.
One of the two should drop to our first 2nd rounder. RB's just aren't valued as much nowadays, and I would plan on taking one of them with our first 2nd rounder. That would be a fantastic draft: 2 of the 4 top receiving threats with our 1st rounders and a highly rated RB with our first 2nd rounder.
We have precisely the same plan in mind. Trade back from #3 and get two WRs and a RB first off.
That is unless they pick a QB with #3. I'm still torn on whether they should do that.
I think it would be a serious mistake to pick a QB at #3 because it's not clear Tua will NOT develop into a consistently above average QB. It's only when you are highly certain your QB is at best average that you do whatever it takes to find a better one, especially given how unreliable QB evals are.
Also remember that passer rating tends to stabilize around year 4, with year 3 being close. So I'd give Tua 3 years to prove it unless he pulls a Josh Rosen in year 2. The only exception to this for me would be if the perceived talent level is just worlds different, and that's arguably only the case for Lawrence who isn't available.
Having said all that, I wouldn't be opposed to spending a mid-round pick (highest is our 3rd, but preferably lower than that) on a QB because Fitz isn't going to be around forever and we do need a backup. Might as well evaluate a drafted QB during that time instead of a vet where you already know he's at best average.
What I’d like for Miami to do, if they do have the 3rd pick, is call Jacksonville and ask them for their later first and their 2 seconds and just see what they say. That’d be 6 picks for the Fins in the top 50 or so. I’m not sure if that’s a fair deal or not, but I’d at least throw it out there and see what they do.
Here's an interesting article on this topic:
Well.. I don't like all that Bayesian updating stuff in this context. Think about it: why care about draft position in evaluating QB performance AFTER you've seen how the QB performs??
The decision to keep or replace a QB shouldn't depend on draft position. It should depend on actual performance. It's only if you think it should depend on draft position that you would give pff's approach credence.
Also, pff is assuming you can evaluate 2 QB's equally whether they're on the same team or on different teams, meaning that pff thinks game time isn't that important and that QB evals can be done accurately looking at practices. But we know this isn't true. Belichick didn't see what Brady was capable of until an injury to Bledsoe, and the same was true for Vermeil who didn't see what Warner could do until an injury to Green. Game time matters, and if it does their probability calculations aren't correct (can't just multiply the probabilities).
Another problem is they're using pff grades to make their case so that automatically inserts a subjective element that can bias any probability calculations. Finally, any cost-benefit analysis should include an estimate of the cost, and they never talk about the opportunity cost of using the #3 on a QB.
So sure they can have their opinion, but it's not based on some kind of more sophisticated analysis that demands respect.
This kind of stuff here is pretty concerning:
Yeah if that's still happening next year I agree it's concerning. He's a rookie though. It's a big step up from college, so I'm not concerned yet. I think it's the speed of the game and the fact "open" is not the same as in college that's confusing him, but whatever it is it's something offseason study + experience should be able to fix. If not, we need a new QB.
I hope it's not that he's simply too short to see what's going on in those areas the video alluded to.
I think, like most posters have already alluded to, the best option is to trade back. Teams like detroit and Washington should only be a couple spots behind us, and both teams are probably looking qb. We are clearly approaching this rebuild in a Patriots way, and I just don't see WR or RB first round.
We should probably only consider WR with our 2nd 1st if at all. Free agency should provide options and imo allen Robinson is our best option. Grabbing someone like Olave in late 2nd or 3rd would be optimal.
I think if we don't trade back it's Parson or Sewell esrly. Late first maybe ucla LB (name eludes me) or Pitts if you have to get a reviving threat.
Either way I think we can all agree this off-season should be exciting.
If we dont pick quarterback then it has to be Chase. A chance at a generational receiver in the likes of Julio, Larry and Megatron... you gotta take Chase.
if dan snyder wants to trade up three firsts to our pick for a qb, then you take that of course.
As long as you add a game changing player at #3, I don’t really care who it is. If it’s Sewell and we can dominate the trenches and run the ball effectively, that will help Tua and our D. It it’s Parsons and our D forces more turnovers, 3 and outs and gives up less points, we’re going to win more games.
If Wilson is there, that would be tempting but I’m sure the trade offers would be too sweet to turn down. If you can turn the Tunsil trade and a trade back from #3 into Miami’s equivalent of the Hershel Walker trade, we’re gonna be happy for the next decade.
Why in God's name would we even consider drafting a quarterback? Our offense has so many hole in the skill position that drafting another quarterback would be the most ridiculous thing we could do!
Tagovailoa needs weapons to work with. Upgrades at wide receiver and running back are imperative! WR Ja'Marr Chase and RB Travis Etienne need to be our objectives in this draft.
Because we need a franchise quarterback. Fitzpatrick is getting up there in age, he isnt the answer.
We would consider it if Flores doesn't believe Tua can win for him. I don't think Flores is going to be the type of coach who lets a QB play mediocre for more than a season or two. The thing is, if he even suspects Tua might not be the answer, this is the draft to act on it. Next year, we're going to be drafting in the 20s and not have as many picks to throw around. So, I think the possibility exists that he might consider it in this draft. He also might not. It's more likely he won't. But I don't think it's impossible.
Both of us being veterans, I think you'll embrace the analogy I'm about to give.
You can have a hot shot E-3...knows HIS stuff inside and out, gets transferred to a new unit and suddenly placed in charge of a section with a bunch of other E-1s, E-2s and E-3s. Now, he KNOWS his stuff but lacks the experience to run that unit with the same effectiveness as a seasoned E-7.
This is the situation Tagovailoa is in and why Fitzpatrick has more efficiency with the offense than Tua does. Fitz is able to lead these 2nd and 3rd stringers due to his experience better than Tagovailoa can. He just needs a while...needs some games under his belt to get that experience. Remember, there was NO preseason, so there right there was 4 games worth of experience Tagovailoa missed out on. Keep in mind, I'm not completely sold on Tua myself, but I am pragmatic to understand the overall situation offensively with the Dolphins.
Eight games into his tenure as a starter, we can’t use the excuse of no preseason. Maybe 3 games in but not 8.
We all saw a QB who couldn’t move our offense in a game with playoff implications and got benched. This is the 2nd time it’s happened.
You've got some points about Fitzpatrick being a veteran and better able to get those guys to perform. My problem is I haven’t seen a QB who does anything exceptionally well. I think he’ll get better as the talent on offense improves but I’m concerned that we dropped a #5 pick on a game manager when we could have had a franchise QB in Herbert.
That’s water under the bridge but at this point, with this defense, we need a franchise QB and we’re going to be a super bowl contender. You do anything you can to find that person. Our OL will improve. We’ve got a ton of picks to add talent on offense. If Wilson is sitting there at #3, you better be sure about Tua or draft that guy.
It's hard to be "sure" about almost any rookie QB, with a few rare exceptions. I already mentioned how Prescott and RG3 are great examples of QB's that looked great as rookies but didn't turn out great, but there are also many QB's that had really bad rookie seasons that did turn out well. Aikman, Elway and Peyton Manning all had really bad rookie seasons that make Tua's rookie season look great (Aikman and Elway had twice as many INT's as TD's as rookies for example).
You HAVE to give almost every QB a few years before you can start to say you're "sure" about anything (with a few rare exceptions like Rosen or Marino of course). You don't just draft a QB high at the expense of other surrounding talent just because a rookie QB isn't lighting it up lol.
Also, keep in mind that statistically Tua is playing in the top 70th percentile among all rookie seasons since 1978 with 150+ passing attempts. The main problem statistically for him is the really low Y/A, which is a direct result of the stuff we've all talked about (him not throwing receivers open, or not recognizing they are open). This isn't a red flag by any means.
I think my problem is I didn’t like him before we drafted him and nothing that I’ve seen has changed my mind. I get your points and agree.