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2021 Draft Pick Watch

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 27, 2020.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Good news of course, but some context is needed. Houston's schedule was REALLY tough their first 3 games: Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers. Their next 2 games are a lot easier: Vikings and Jaguars, so we'll see if they struggle against those.

    Anyway, they look more like an 8-8 team, not a playoff calibre team, so we should get a mid-1st rounder out of them.
     
  3. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I could see them at 1-6 at their bye-week, maybe 2-5. They will be out of the playoff hunt rather early, so I'm hoping the team just quits on Bill O'Brien at that point. I'd put them at 5-6 wins this season, so a top ten pick is very possible. If Watson gets hurt this year, we are looking at a top five pick.
     
  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If they for some unlikely reason ended up with the #1 pick, I'll be pissed if we dont shop Tua unless he comes and plays lights out this year.
     
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  5. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Nope. You take Trevor Lawrence and let him and Tua battle it out. You can trade the loser of that battle away in 2022. Or keep both until 2024 just to be sure you made the right pick. Look at the Eagles with Wentz, he started really well for a couple seasons but seems to really be struggling now.
     
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  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Jets and Giants are probably the worst teams in the league. Let's hope the Giants are worse.
     
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  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The reason I dont like that is the longer you are away from your initial selection the more your stock declines.

    If he loses to Lawrence people wonder if he has it, same in reverse. I'll take the immediate reward because I believe you can get more.

    That said I do understand the risk. .
     
  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    We have too many needs still. Either way you've got a top 5 QB here, the other one you trade instantly for a king's ransom and use those picks to build the rest of your team.
     
  9. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    To have an elite QB for the next 15 years, I'd happily give up two first rounders. Lawrence or Tua would still have first round or second and change value to some desperate team. The other team needs will diminish with having an elite QB. The OL is better. The WR corp is set. The defense will play better since they'll have a lead to defense more often than not. Sure get some DE help and another DT and LB, but you are improving here and there, not rebuilding entire parts of the team.

    All that said, I agree that the Jets have a serious chance at pick #1.
     
  10. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Not sure I follow. Are you saying that if the Phins do get a shot at Lawrence you'd trade Tua immediately for a couple of first rounders, or that you'd keep both QB's and then trade one later on?
     
  11. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    You keep both, to maximize your chance at having an elite QB. Once you feel certain you have one, you trade away the other QB. This evaluation may take a couple years, but don't be hasty. Of course, both might not be more than fair-good, but let's not think about that....
     
  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    I have to disagree.

    The rebuild has already started. Flores is clearly looking to build a winner and starting winning right now. He knows what he has in Fitz, he's looking at Tua. He's building the rest of the team, and Grier likely knows that as they go year on year they're going to need to constantly find good young talent. If they get a shot at Lawrence and like him then they take him and get what they can for Tua - or vice-versa.

    Grier has shown he isn't afraid to trade proven talent especially for maximum value, and at the same time, one can never eliminate risk completely. So I think you gamble on the fact that both QB's are likely good, you've see Tua, you're either convinced or you're not, if not, you go with Lawrence. Either way, you trade the least convincing QB and maybe pick up a backup QB with one of the huge haul of picks you'll get, in addition to other talent elsewhere.

    Holding onto two QB's is just a waste, and I don't see Flores or Grier doing it, even at the level of just doing the right thing by either young player.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Aside from this hypothetical scenario of us picking #1 in 2021 being HIGHLY unrealistic — we are nowhere near as bad as some other teams — any forward strategic thinking by the HC and GM will lead to Tua playing out the 2nd half of the season if by midseason we're 1-7 or so and in the race for the #1 draft pick.

    In other words, realistically, we're only picking #1 if Tua plays really bad. So I don't think you need to entertain the idea of keeping both, unless the HC/GM are so stupid they don't take the opportunity to test Tua in real games first.

    Of course, in the even more unlikely scenario where you didn't play Tua and picked Lawrence, you absolutely have to see them in real games first. Can't just assume you know what you have through practice sessions.
     
  14. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    JaMarr Chase or Jaylen Waddle with one, Greg Rousseau or Micah Parsons with the other. Good day.
     
  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    I think the #1 pick scenario is where the Texans fail so badly that they earn the #1 pick for us.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Even less likely. Houston has serious issues with its (lack of) running game and its run defense, but against weaker teams Watson is going to have a field day. They're definitely better than we are, at least so far.
     
  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They’ve lost three competitive games against 3 top 5 teams..

    I expect them to win the next two, they’ll be favored, Watson is just too good.
     
  18. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I feel good about our OL and RB. TE looks great too.

    I’d like to see us solidify that defensive front 7, go WR or both in the first round.

    I might be being a HUGE homer right now but I feel really good about what we’ve doing on right now. We still have a LONG ways to go but for the first time in decades, everything we’re doing feels like the right thing. I didn’t love the Tua pick but the rest of this draft looks really good.
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    It doesn’t work that, especially with the type of re-build the Dolphins are doing. They aren’t drafting players per say. They’re drafting a team, with a certain offensive philosophy...with a certain defensive philosophy. “This is the type of offense/defense we’re going to run” and they’re accumulating players for that philosophy. There are many folks here that disagree with that strategy but I strongly support it, especially if your system works.

    Andy Reid for example...the Eagles drafted Donovan McNabb and Reid built his offense around that type of quarterback. When McNabb left, he brought in Vick. When Reid went to KC he signed the mobile Alex Smith and was successful and drafted Mahomes. This is Reid’s philosophy and he’s been successful.

    If Flores philosophy matured and he’s successful you don’t draft a new quarterback who’s skill set doesn’t make your game plan
     
  20. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Time to worry about the Jets getting the #1 pick.
     
  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Given the Jets history drafting in the top 10, I'm not very worried. Almost no one lives up to the hype when they take them.
     
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  22. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    no way we would pick Trevor Lawrence if for some reason the houston pick would end up #1st overall, we would take a ransom from somebody that wants Trevor Lawrence
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Exactly. Winning the Trevor sweepstakes is grabbing three more 1st rounders and possibly another starter on top of that. There is zero chance we'd pick someone else at #1 overall and let him slide to #2.

    Imagine if it played out that the Texans ultimately traded us for Lawrence! Would we ask for Tunsil and a few more 1st rounders in that trade?!? I swear that would make my decade as a Dolphins fan!
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2020
  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Which would be a huge mistake. I'd rather take a loss on Tua because IMO he isnt even in the same class Of QB.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2020
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  25. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Trevor Lawrence looks about as close as a the real deal coming out of college since John Elway.If he's there in the draft you take him.
     
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  26. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    There is no way you pass on Trevor Lawrence.
     
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  27. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Texans host the Vikings today.
    Houston are 3.5 favourites.
     
  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Go Vikes!
     
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  29. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Vikes with a HUGE goal line stand!
     
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  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Houston is so bad at the run, both on offense and on defense. Had no idea they'd start 0-4 but this is great for us!
     
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  32. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Good job Minnesota, but Houston is one of those teams who I can see probably go on like a 9-3 run and make the playoffs.
     
  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    They play the Jaguars in two of their next three games, and are probably the better team there. But they also face the Titans, Packers, Browns and Patriots. After ten games, I don't expect them to be better than 3-7. At that point, we'll see if they pack it in for the year or not.
     
  34. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    So, Bill O'Brien just got fired. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-4-start-he-had-been-with-houston-since-2014/

    Does the team rebound under a temp coach? Or collapse even more? I hope the players check out on the season and Miami gets a top 5 pick.

    Houston is going to have a HUGE issue with getting a decent coach. They won't have many picks in 2021 to work with, so the new coach won't be able to really build through the draft until 2022.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Even better news for us. Maybe it is realistic to get a top 10 or even top 5 pick from Houston. As you say, depends on how the team responds to an interim coach. But their issues with run defense (and offense) are real and aren't going away.
     
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  36. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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  37. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    They look really bad this year,they may win a few games but I don't see them with a winning record.
     
  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    They had better hope Watson is a huge selling point to someone decent.
     
  39. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Houston's organization is a mess. Their founder/owner Bob McNair died two years ago, his widow is technically the owner, and his son is now in charge. They don't have a GM, because O'Brien filled that role too.
     
  40. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Worst 2021 draft news is O'Brien being fired. It is eased a bit knowing Romeo Crennel is the HC in his place. Come on Jags make them 0-5.
     

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