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2018 Miami Dolphins Season Preview & Predictions

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Aug 26, 2018.

  1. Big Phin

    Big Phin Member

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    I hope keyfin is right, but I'm leaning this way. I just have to see it to believe it. I worry about Gase handling the play calling.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Because we've seen so little of Tannehill any prediction is going to be a guess in the dark at this point. I figured the best I could do was figure that we have a pretty good line and then use that to figure out how long it will take before RT starts hitting that 2016 stride again (OR how long it will take Gase to trust him to be more aggressive). We really have no idea at this point. I do think the defense is going to be very strong against the pass though and that alone will make the difference in some ballgames this season. But 6 wins? 12 wins? It should be somewhere between that anyway. =)

    Here's my other train of thought though- I think we start getting some serious "fire Gase" conversations if this isn't a big comeback season. I personally believe the magic number is 9 wins (aka, a winning season) and I think Gase knows that as well. So I honestly feel in my gut that we will win 9, 10, or 11 ballgames doing whatever it takes to get the franchise fully back in the Gase fandom.
     
  3. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    6 - 10
     
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  4. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I'd say probably closer to this than 10-6. I also say that 6 or fewer wins = goodbye Gase, and probably some of the FO as well. Less than 9 and it's definite hot seat.

    Tannehill is a complete unknown at this point. He was playing alright when he got hurt ... but that was almost two years ago. Was he actually putting it together, or just on a streak? Is he confident or will he be shaky/gunshy? Rusty? How long to get back into "playing shape" after the time, etc.

    I know people are drinking the kool aid on guys like Amendola (injuries and bad outside of Brady), Wilson (done jack), Grant (done jack) and others ... I don't really buy it. Relying on rookie TEs? They have one of - if not THE - most atrocious track records for rookie production. Drake? Exciting, but reliance on the big play is going to likely lead to regression.

    Defense lost their best player, and I'm not sure we got better.

    This offseason was hugely in flux in coaching and player personnel. Guess we will see, but I don't really see a team ready to challenge NE for the crown. I hope to be proven incorrect.
     
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  5. Irishman

    Irishman Active Member

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    I think we should contact the American Psychiatric Association, or what ever they call themselves, and give them unlimited access to this board for a small retaining fee. This will allow them to keep up-to-date with their experience observing severe mental depression, at their leisure, without having to pay an increased premium for their medical insurance.
     
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  6. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    It's not a Miami Dolphins thing tbh. You should hear the talk in Detroit about the Lions. They are about ready to run Patricia out of town already lol. It wasn't much different in Austin listening to Cowboy and Houston fans as well.
     
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  7. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I dont think Gase gets fired if we win 6 games... i think Ross will extens him if Gase agrees to draft his own guy at quarterback.
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Today, we are tied for first place in the league with 31 other teams- that gives us a 3.125% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That's the odds every team starts off with- you're going to lose over 96% of the time. That's why I think it's so silly when people say we suck for going 8-8 or something similar.....the difference between a crap team and an awesome one is often negligible.

    Isn't that why we love the game though? It's any given Sunday.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    They'd probably tell you that this message board is reducing the severity of any sports related depression because so many studies show that social contact reduces depression.

    Actually it's worse than that: social contact with the therapist is often the very confound in the study lol. The therapist does something he/she thinks will help the patient, then you see improvement in self reports about how the patient feels, and then some some stat-head comes along showing that most of the effect can be explained by the social contact with the therapist and NOT the intervention! lol..

    While we're on the subject, another confound is who assigned the ratings. In many cases it's the therapist that rates the patient (e.g., Hamilton depression rating scale). There are studies that show that patients "improve" when you use the therapist's ratings of his/her patients but not when you use the patient's ratings lol. Anyway, it's messy. I've come into contact with this kind of stuff from the stat side of things a few times.
     
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  10. mbsinmisc

    mbsinmisc Season Ticket Holder

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    11-5. Conference finals.
     
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  11. Galant

    Galant Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    [​IMG]

    1. L
    2. W
    3. W
    4. L
    5. L
    6. W
    7. L
    8. L
    9. W
    10. L
    11. --
    12. L
    13. W
    14. W
    15. L
    16. L
    17. W

    7-9

    Did that just based on game by game.
    Overall I feel more positive about the Dolphins than a losing record suggests, and if Gase is right on his own perspective we'll do much better, but although this year's Dolphins is something of a mystery, I do wonder about everything clicking. I feel we'll do very well in the AFCE this year, but not as well outside it.

    Losses I think could be wins - Titans, Vikings and maybe Colts, so we could be 10-6.

    Bottom line - I'm actually really uncertain about who these Dolphins will be. So much change from last season to this it almost feels like another new start.

    I'm hoping for that 10-6, let's see how we go!



    EDIT - Really weird prediction? NE somehow throw a game or two in a weak division and we manage to steal 1st place despite having a worse overall record for the season. Maybe a Brady injury? If he does get injured, they miss the playoffs, if he doesn't they go in as a wild card.
     
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  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    When Adam Gase was hired 3 years ago, there were a lot of cheers and jeers. The Dolphins as an organization have been struggling the last decade or so to return to their glory days of the 70’s and 80’s. The Wunderkind took virtually the same team he inherited after the 2015 season, a pathetically weak 6-10 team and turned it around, going 10-6 in his first season as head coach. Then came the Tannehill debacle.

    I’m one who’s truly of the opinion that our miserable season last year was due to the lackluster play of Jay Cutler. He had no fire in his belly on the field, no fire in his eyes and moreso, he didn’t have the confidence of the offense. Now this just may be Jay Cutler, he’s stand offish and detached but when you’re called up by your old coach because he truly believes in you to help resurrect his team, you gotta engage. He failed to do so.

    Tannehill is back. This is HIS team and he has the respect and confidence of the entire offense. Lots of new faces this year and with preseason only 4 games in which the starters only get 1 full half of play before the regular season, it’s going to take 3-4 games to work out the kinks. During that time frame, I expect to hear more calls for Gase’s head, more cries to draft yet another quarterback and on and on however I see it coming together and coming on strong. We’ll be the team everyone prays doesn’t make the playoffs.

    I’ve been wrong before but I’ve not been as excited about the Dolphins since the days of Shula like I have since we hired Gase. If we get some consistency at the head coach position I really feel we’re going to return to our glory days.
     
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  13. Irishman

    Irishman Active Member

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    1( L The first game is really a toss-up in my mind
    2) W
    3) W
    4( L This game is also a toss-up in my mind.
    5) W
    6) W
    If we have won all of these first six games, I predict we will go un-defeated for the season. I mean, who will we be playing later that is better than any of the teams we have just played?
    7) W
    8) W
    9) W
    10( L I feel this game will be a surprisingly difficult game and may end up as a close "toss-up"
    11- zzzzzz
    12) W
    13) W
    14) W
    15( L If we have a let down during this season, this is where it will happen!
    16) W
    17) W

    That's 12 Won vs. 4 Lost *** AS A MINIMUM

    If we win all 6 of the first 6 games, then I believe we will go on to be undefeated for the season.

    Our most surprising strength will be our ability to rotate players effectively throughout the season and the resulting maintenance of the teams performance through injury. We will eek out some wins and other times just run away with the games. If we do suffer an occasional loss, the team will come out stronger than ever the following game. Due to that resilience, I believe if we do take some losses, none of them will be back to back losses.
     
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  14. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    I simulated a season with the Phins in Madden 19, and they went 3-13. I don't think they will be quite that bad. Will go with a safe prediction of 7-9.
     
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  15. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    5-11 - The secret to beating us is not a secret. Run the ball. We cannot stop it. We had a borderline Hall of Famer with Suh, and we couldn't stop the run. It is crazy to think that we can do it now. The LB unit hasn't improved. Run every play and beat the Dolphins. It really is that simple.
     
  16. Irishman

    Irishman Active Member

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    It doesn't make any difference how good a DT you are if you are over aggresive, letting other teams set you up so they can make their run game work!
     
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    One DT can't cover six gaps, which is why Suh was never worth the money we were paying him. I don't think he's borderline anything though- he's a one in a generation beast that's almost a definite day one lock for the HOF.

    Our problem has always been contain though and the run D looked very good in weeks 3 and 4. I think they'll surprise a lot of folks this season since we have youth, talent, and speed up front. It's just going to take a little time for them to get on the same page.
     
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  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok I have to ask the arrogant question...how do you simulate a season on a video game?

    How can you or anyone else possibly know what plays are going to be called by either team, who’s going to play, who’s going to be injured, weather, etc?

    Football is a game that’s played by men...real men and not by ones and zeroes in the silicon bubble of cyberspace.
     
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  19. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your overall point that a simulation will never be 100% accurate but simulating a season in Madden is a fairly simple thing. You can set CPU to sim all the way through the Super Bowl with a few clicks of button. The computer computes the relative strength of each team and assigns a probability of a win for each matchup a team has. Then it's just a matter of the system progressing through each week and determining an outcome (win or loss). Injuries happen and can affect matchups and outcomes too. It also accounts somewhat for player growth and training with the proper settings. You can also allow the CPU to complete trades and sign free agents.

    I don't believe weather or individual play calling is computed in the simulation. The simulation also can't compute any human related factors or any adjustments a team can make mid season.

    The Dolphins are one of the lowest rated teams in Madden at the moment, so the 3-13 outcome didn't surprise me all that much given the limitations of the system. It's not perfect, but you do get a gauge of how the team is expected to perform over the course of the season.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2018
  20. rackhound

    rackhound Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think we finish 9-6 to 12-4 depending on how things play out early in the season and barring any injuries. If we sweep the Patriots I can see 12-4 because to do that they are gonna have to be pretty damn good this year. I cant see us winning only 4 to 6 games unless Tannehill goes down. I don't see why the media thinks we will be so bad. I get that they don't have us as a good team, but the worst team? That's a little harsh and unless we loose a few early I can see it making them play even better to prove everyone wrong.
     
  21. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I admit the run defense is suspect going into the year, but honestly with our youth, we aren't going to know what we have till about week 5. If our LBs figure it out quickly then this team can make some noise. I don't suspect our DTs are going to be world beaters, but I think they will be good enough to eat up some blockers. Our entire run defense is going to hinge on that LB crew, to me that's the biggest ? for the whole team.

    If our offense can score early and often, this defense will be dangerous with those edge rushers. I believe we will be playing important games down the stretch this season, and if some of our question marks become strengths we might be able to surprise a lot of people.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You are scaring me.
     
  23. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    He's right. Our linebacking corps is not good. Hasn't been for years but we keep slapping bandaids on it.
     
  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    How is drafting a linebacker in the 2nd and 3rd round putting on bandaid?
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Because mermaids can fly and blue skittles cure cancer. Come one, everyone knows that....
     
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  26. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    Is this pro draft 2nd and 3rd round picks are band aides or anti?
     
  27. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    6-10...no run defense. Derek Henry might go for 200...
     
  28. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I actually found our run defense in games 3 and 4 of the preseason to be decent when the starters were in. In the first half of the Baltimore game I counted 20 rush attempts against us for 65 yards. That's a 3.25 average. IIRC Baltimore had their OL starters and starting RB in. Flacco didn't start so that affected things, but RG3's rushing ability did as well as he was responsible for about a third of their first half rushing total. Those huge breakdowns we had in the first two games and when the starters were not in during the third game were greatly minimized. Obviously, it's a small sample, but I thought it was equally obvious that the starters greatly improved their run fits as the preseason progressed. I wouldn't call them great, but I also don't see them as the huge liability some claim.
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely not. Champions are built in the 2nd-5th rounds. I was making fun of the other person's comment, not yours. =)
     
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  30. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m going to be patient with Raekwon and Baker, we haven’t done a good job the past 4 or 5 years on the unit, if it was up to me this linebacker unit would of been the best in football.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I basically saw the same thing- two rookie LB's holding their own while playing hard. I think people forget that what we saw of them in pre-season was after a month's worth of practice in the NFL....they should only improve in time. The big thing to me was that they were flying through gaps and playing super-aggressive on run plays, which is exactly what we want.

    I honestly don't see a problem with our run D- it's about average today, and I think it's going to be really solid a few months from now.
     
  32. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree I drink your milkshake! Club Member

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    O.k cool. I was very confused
     
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  33. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Well, you're right, we've drafted some in the earlier rounds, though most haven't worked out, but I was thinking more of a quality free agent to solidify the LB corps.
     
  34. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I was wrong..
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    lol.. c'mon, who could consistently predict a whole season's game results beforehand. You got 9 out of 16 correct which is just around what one would expect if a person randomly assigned W's and L's to a team that's around average knowing that a select game here or there (e.g., @NE) is a likely loss or win, so that's expected. Besides I think you had a great record predicting Dolphins games against the spread this year right? (though that's probably also mostly luck)

    Accurate prediction is hard. I learned that myself trying to use past 10 games W/L record to beat Vegas. That stat alone won't do well enough. I'll have to incorporate more stats the next time around.
     
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  36. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Man did I nail that prediction lol
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    We were all "wrong" because of the extensive injuries- you'd have to be a psychic to see that coming. I was right about our starting offense finding lots of ways to win though and I was right about our secondary bordering on legendary at times. I also nailed the special teams.

    I obviously came up way short on the 10 win prediction though and I'm just as frustrated now as I was when I originally wrote the full review. This team could have been special...but that's how it goes in the NFL. Only 9 months to kickoff folks!
     
  38. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Looking forward to the last part for sure!

    Trying to pick a side on this weeks WC games with mist games being +/-2.5, essentially pick the winner and I have no strong feelings about any yet.

    It is much easier to make weekly picks as the season plays out as you can sometimes get a feel for what your team is good or bad. Predicting all games in September is pretty damn hard, but fun to try.

    AS far as luck goes in predicting outcomes? Some things are certainly out of your control and hard to predict for anyone such as game changing personal fouls and fumbles. It can be a fun but infuriating hobby.
     
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