2010 Florida Marlins Thread

NTIM, in the link it has Ohman ranked 50 in top 75 relievers. Hensley is rated 52.

 

Hanley is sucking!

 

What makes the trade better is RVH was out of options. So, he was probably gone anyway.

 

Congrats to Uggla. Marlins all time HR leader!

 

I'm glad they didn't trade Uggla. Dude is a beast. Stanton is starting to come around too. That homerun he hit yesterday was an absolute bomb.

 

Courtesy of Sean Cunningham (Marlins trainer) and his family. I coached his kid in baseball over the summer.

 

F*ck you JJ. How can you give up 5 runs?!

 

ya **** him for being human once...........

 

JJ is allowed to be human once in a while.

That sub-2.00 ERA can't last forever.

 

I actually think it can. I mean, it's not like he's getting lucky out there. This is the best pitcher in baseball by far.

 

His HR/FB rates are kind of lucky-ish.

 

Not to mention his BABIP, LOB % and FIP are all well below both the league average and his career average (which isn't to say that he hasn't improved as a pitcher this year, because its obvious he has). Again not taking anything away from Josh Johnson because he's having a great year and is a top MLB pitcher but his numbers do show a little bit of luck involved so far this year. There is bound to be a little bit of a market correction here. I'd bet by the end of the year his ERA will be around 2.50, which is extremely good but it's highly doubtful that a starting pitcher in this era could put up an ERA under 2.

 

I agree with your conclusion but not your reasoning. The post-steroids era is a pitcher's dream. Just look at all the no-hitters, 1-hitters, and 2-hitters this season.

 

His BABIP isn't well below league average.

While there is some luck with JJ, I honestly don't expect his numbers to drop dramatically. Especially not to a 2.50 ERA.

He doesn't give up any hits, barely walks batters, is a strikeout pitcher, and induces a lot of ground balls.

 

Post steroid era is the reason why HR totals are down but all of those no hitters are completely random events and have little to nothing to do with PEDs. All no hitters (even the ones where pitchers have been completely dominate in) there's a lot of luck involved in, such as batters hitting balls right at players etc. There were also no hitters & perfect games thrown during the steroid era as well and MLB have had drug testing in place since 2005. If it really had to do with PEDs then why didn't all of these no hitters happen sooner? Why has it started 5 years after the fact? I'd be much more concerned and would think there's a direct link to no PEDs if pitchers were commonly striking out 15 plus guys than a bunch of no hitters in a single year.

Plus look at the names that pitched perfect games/no hitters: Halladay, Jimenez, Braden, Garza & Jackson. Dallas Braden and Edwin Jackson just scream luck, they're ok pitchers but nothing special. All just random events that happened to happen all in 1 year. I wouldn't bet on seeing 5 no hitters next year. It's not like this is going to be a common thing now all of the sudden, just random pure luck.

 

League average is .303, his average is .292 so you're right it's not well below average like his FIP or LOB%. But his numbers are bound to come up a little bit, especially since like you said he is a ground ball pitcher and the Marlins defense, particularly in the infield isn't the best. Some of those ground balls that found leather so far are bound to become hits, just on the laws of average.

 

True.

Just imagine how good JJ would be if we have the infield of the 2003 Marlins.

 

Disagreed. You can certainly attribute some of the no-hitters to luck, but to chalk the entirety of the no-hitters up to luck while simultaneously ignoring the amount of low-hit games doesn't make sense to me.

Pitching did not magically improve overnight and league-wide since the previous World Series. It's not all chance, luck, and good fortune. Something happened. The steroids left baseball.

 

But why then in year 5 of drug testing has this all started to happen? Do you think guys were still on PEDs in years 2005-2009? Do you think everyone playing today are clean? Could a lot of these low hit games be attributed to teams improving defense? I actually think that's a big reason, as defense seems to be the new 'Money Ball/OBP' for teams as teams have really started to pay attention to defensive metrics.

It would be a nice study/research for someone to look at the number of 1 or 2 hitters pitchers have thrown this year so far compared to previous years. I'm guessing that the number probably wouldn't be that abnormal but it seems like it might because 2010 is fresh in our heads.

 

I think there were certainly a lot of players getting around tests one way or another.

Very possible. I'd like to see that study.

 

I agree with your first statement, I do think there are still players using PEDs.

I tried to do a quick google search but didn't really come up with anything solid. I'm sure someone at a site like Fangraphs will do a study on the subject sooner or later.

 

I tend to believe it's more luck than anything. Also:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZWjdDTjtXw"]YouTube- willohman harrycaray high[/ame]

I'm a fan now.

 

Adding to the luck/PED no hitter debate, here's a look at the last 21 years of no hitters:

Here's a link of all of them: http://espn.go.com/mlb/history/nohitters

1990- 7
1991- 7
1992- 1
1993- 3
1994- 3
1995- 1
1996- 3
1997- 3
1998- 1
1999- 3
2000- 0
2001- 3
2002- 1
2003- 2
2004- 1
2005- 0
2006- 1
2007- 3
2008- 2
2009- 2
2010- 5

There have been 52 no hitters thrown in the past 21 years for an average of 2.476 per year.

Interesting stuff, the only numbers that jump out is the 2 years (1990-1991) of 7 no hitters each, which was the very beginning of the steroid era and obviously this year, since there have never been more than 3 no hitters in any year since 1991. It really looks like it's just luck involved working here. If you showed someone this list and they didn't know about the PED era and post PED era they wouldn't think twice about this list since nothing really stands out other than those 3 years (90, 91, 2010) everything else looks pretty standard/normal.

 

Not going to lie I had to finally look up LOOGY. This whole time I thought you were saying Tank was so bad he was a loogy like a spit wad. Didn't realize it was lefty one out guy.

 

Looks to me like that list says that we've got the most no-hitters in two decades, and the regular season is still far from over.

And I'd put the list of no-hitters in 2010 at 6: Galaragga had that.

 

I guess we'll see what happens next few years then because when I look at that list I see 2010 as a fluke.

The list shows that the number of no hitters thrown during the steroid era haven't been any different from the number of no hitters thrown during the testing era (minus this year). And you still haven't been able to explain why the number has gone up this year when testing has been in place for 5 years now. Isn't it possible that this year is just a fluke or completely luck/random?

I think if anyone is expecting to see 5 or 6 no hitters per year now because of the lack of PEDs could be disappointed in the future.

 

I don't think no-hitters are a very good qualifier in regards to PED use. Obviously the best qualifier would be Home Runs hit or ERA per season. I saw yesterday during the Braves/Mets game that the league ERA is the lowest it's been at this point in the season since 1972? Amazing.

EDITED TO ADD: The reason I say no-hitters aren't a good qualifier is because there are too many variables. A no-hitter does not necessarily mean a guy pitched a better game than a guy who gave up 3 hits and no walks (as opposed to guy who walked 7 or 8 and gave up no hits.) See: Edwin Jackson no-no or AJ Burnett no-no.

 

I agree completely. No hitters are a mixture of a random event and luck (how else could you explain Dallas Braden or Bud Smith throwing one but Pedro Martinez or Greg Maddux never doing it?). And just judging by the list of no hitters it proves that PEDs have nothing to do with them. They just happen.

Anyone who saw Dallas Braden or Galaragga's game will know it was all about the fielders being in the right spot at the right time as neither guy overpowered the hitters by any means. I think Galaragga might have struck out 3 guys, which screams of good luck that game. It wasn't like these guys were K'ing 15 guys and the hitters have no shot. Also Tampa Bay has been a top team for the past 3 years and have been no hit 2 times, do you really think it's because of the lack of PEDs or just a run of bad luck in those 2 games?

 

I see what Desides is saying though, because you could make an argument that because PED use is down, scoring is down, hits are down, and therefore - more no-hitters.

BUT, the act of a no-hitter is so random, as you said, and there are so many variables, I really don't think you can make a direct connection.

 

One other thing I'll add, I bet if you could somehow gather data on the velocity of your average pitcher now, and the velocity of your average pitcher even 6 or 8 years ago, you'd see a trend swinging upward. It seems almost every guy coming out of the pen throws 95 or better, and your average starter throws at least 92. That wasn't the case in the early 90's.

 

I'd like to add that the absence of steroids certainly can be considered at least a contributing factor to the sudden omnipotence of MLB pitching in general, even if not no-hitters in specific.

 

And yet it's the hitting that's suffered. Seems to me that the offense gained more than the defense.

Anyway, Chris Coghlan is likely out the rest of the season. He's still getting opinions on his meniscus tear, and the surgery he needs will take 6-8 months to recover from.

The sooner, the better, Chris.

 

Man I love Mike Stanton.

 

The Fish have signed Chad Tracy. Brian Petersen has been optioned to make room.

 

Are you guys still in shock over that horrible call lol?

Anyway, I'm gonna go ahead and copy my analysis from another site onto here about that abomination by Bob Davidson. I'm interested to know what other's think.

One other thing, I think this shows a flaw in umpire positioning. Davidson never even bothered to look where the ball landed. He claims he didn't need to, which again, technically is true. However, shouldn't umpires use that as another method of helping them get the call right? The more information the better right?

If I only see the ball crossing the bag, and it's a close play, but then I ALSO see the ball land 2 inches INSIDE the line, well now I have more information I can use to make my call. That didn't happen here, because Davidson, I've said for years, is the worst umpire in MLB.

 

Davidson with the no-look game-winning assist.