Brothers, whilst i won't go and predict at this point 'who' the strongest possibilities are for our 1st round pick ... we can and should be able to show who we won't pick. 1- unless a top talent falls to us at 15 not named Ingram, we trade down much like last year to get our 2d round pick back (even though it'd be a later pick). 2- we won't draft a DE this year ... seems pretty obvious given our current talent set, albeit - i was fortunate enough to predict Odrick last year. 3- we won't draft a CB this year ... was lucky enough to predict Davis 2 years ago, if he fell - and he did. The good news is that there wasn't much talent involved in picking those 2 ... it was a need and both fit 'Parcellian' measurables. This year it might be sightly different with Ireland holding the final cards, who knows. The point of this thread though ... is if you look at most draft boards from 1-20, the overwhelming positions of draft are DE and CB. Positions of need or improvement on our team with talent in 1-20 are: QB, WR and OLB. Do i believe we'll take a QB with #15 .... no, unless Newton plummets and this regime decides to take a chance -- and even then i still find it doubtful, but to me is the only chance it could happen. Do i believe we'd take an OLB with #15 ... possible, getting a real partner for Wake would allow us to put unrelenting pressure on opposing offenses - something Misi, while solid will never do. there are only 3 predicted in the top 20 ... Von Miller, Smith and Ayers. I believe it a real possibility if Von Miller somehow is sitting there, that we pull the trigger - but that would be so very unlikely. Funny though, under Parcells - his measurables don't add up for true consideration. Akers though seems to be classic Parcells -- and certainly a likely pick for the PATSIES, so he remains a possibility though most would argue that OLB isn't a position of need - whereas, i still believe it is. Do i believe we'd take a WR with #15 ... yes, but as we have discussed in the past few drafts - it is not 'Parcellian'. Is it a position of need, some would argue yes, some would say they are happy with Marshall, Bess and Hartline; and are problems on offense reside elsewhere. Green, Jones, Smith and Baldwin are the most sought after .... Green would be a given, but not a chance he's there at #15 - he is that talented. Jones is not the burner we need at this point. Smith is a burner, can likely help the return game, and has to be considered really hard ... not sure at #15, but surely if we trade down. Do i believe we'd take an OT with #15 ... no, not a RT ... most folks know i haven't exactly been a huge fan of Vernon Carey since we drafted him as a bit of a reach - but tremendous need at that time. Vernon has played adequately on the right side, but i think he is valued a little too highly by some on our site. Regardless, we need to find a replacement for him ... and we have dabbled with Murtha and Gardner, but haven't found 'that' guy yet. Vernon is due a lot of $$$$ and even though he is recovering from injury - he is one of our most valuable trade assets, BUT with the CBA in the state it is in - trading players prior to or on draft day won't happen unless it's resolved. Sooooo, do i still believe we are very much in the market for a T - yes .... will the CBA cause us to hold tight until next year ... it very well could. No matter .... we have Solder, Castonzo, Camiri, and Smith -- and if one of these are still there after we drop down, it's a strong possibility. So, what are our real possibilities at #15 should we stay there ..... Ingram Von Miller - but realistically Akers Green - but realistically Smith I think any of these 3 could help our team .... but still believe we move down where Ingram 'could' still be there, Akers won't, Smith could .... and then you have to add in the Ts such as Camiri, and then consider a G/C such as Pouncey. We'll see in about 30 days where we stand with the CBA and results from the combine and team visits and pro days ... to get a clearer picture - but i doubt it will change all that much from what is here already.
I agree with a majority of what you said, but I think the OLB need is overstated and that WR can be temporarily fixed via free agency. If Von Miller is there at 15... which he won't be... we would absolutely pull the trigger. It's not even a question. It wouldn't be a matter of need, rather, you take a top 3 talent when he falls to 15, regardless of who he is. If Nick Fairley or DaQuan Bowers were to fall, I'd say the same thing. We'd just make them fit. ...Back to real life; if we draft Ayers, it'll be a colossal waste. We could trade down to 25-30 and still potentially pick him... and like I said, it's not really that big of a need. Not on the scale of "first round pick". Again, I think WR can be fixed via free agency (the top 3 wr's on our depth chart are better than most teams... Cowboys, Packers, Steelers maybe? Jets last year?)... but if we did want to add one, you're right, Green at 15 (for reasons stated above) or trade down. Taking a WR other than Green at 15 would be a nightmare. I like your tackle assessment. Joseph Barksdale could be a sleeper. One last thing; I think tight end is a bigger need than OLB and WR. Fasano is a #2 TE on any other team not based in Buffalo or Charlotte. My ideal draft would be 1) Ingram 3) Stocker 4) Mallett Then get an OLB, a couple of O-line project and a return specialist. Even though that strays from my lengthy write-up a mere 24 hours ago, the thought of what a competent tight end tandem is capable of is amazing.
agree on the selections at #15 ... but the attempt was to give realistic alternatives to the everyone loves Mark Ingram ... I absolutely believe that we will trade down, unless one of the gifted players falls in our laps - not named Ingram. i disagree with the OLB situation, in that i believe our defense is 2 players away from being elite .... a playmaker at LB and FS ... 'a' way to fill the LB need is to draft a playmaking OLB that has the speed to get to the QB (something Misi doesn't have), then move Misi inside as we have discussed in several threads at various times on this site. Misi would be instantly better than Crowder and Dobbins on the inside. then we'd just be just that stud FS away on the defense to carry the load over the slowly building offense. For brother Pad ... i don't see any S prospects listed in the top 20, so i didn't cover that position at #15 (unlike last year). I've been advocating LB and FS for a while as needs, just don't see any at #15 or even in the top #20 at this point (Moore, Carter or Jarrett) .... seems more likely in RD #2 with our potential drop down pick or RD #3. regarding TE ... while absolutely agree on the need ... i believe we can sign Miller or Daniels (not Shockey) and see what we have in the 3 rookies we got last year. the good news is that absolutely everyone is sold that we are going Ingram ... so that should help us on draft day - when we decide to move down (or others decide to move up). I very much doubt anyone will try to move up in front of us to grab Ingram.
I agree on your premise of our defense being 2 players away from being elite, but when the offense is.... inept, for lack of a better term, the priorities shift towards the skill positions (QB, RB, WR)
If there is no CBA, (hence FA would come after the draft), it'll change how Irish and co. look at the draft... I think if Ingram is there, there is no choice but to go RB (given that we won't know about RB or RW). I think the one place they won't go in the first round, is QB although true enough, we won't know the status of Thiggy and/or Penny.... OT/G/C could be where we go. Is interest in Pouncey more about his brothers' reputation than his ?? OLB, even if Misi continues to improve is still an option. Even S is an option... There are always questions about where/who we will draft, but there are more questions this year than most....but hey, you're options are just as valid as anyone's at this point...
won't argue those sentiments .... i'm a fan of Kaepernick (as i believe you are as well) after seeing him over the last 2 years late night on ESPN; and i wouldn't use a 1st rounder on him. I did want to pick up a FA back-up QB like Dixon or ; and draft a guy that could sit the bench for a year or 2 .... like i think Colin would have to do. WR is a definite possibility for our trade down pick or late 2d, but it MUST be a burner - not just a 'fast' guy. RB, i'm not as high on .... as i believe that you can pick up a recycled guy and plug him in. Am i against Ingram, no - but just not sold that we have to invest a 1st round pick into a RB, and i do like Williams with maybe the late 2d. I'll do another thread to capture rds 1-3 later ... but to preview, i see our options as follows: RB- Ingram, Williams (we have a 'big' back in Hilliard, we need the smaller, faster, more every down back) WR- Smith, Jerigan, Young (all burners, that can also fall in on STs) QB- Kaepernick, Dalton T- Camiri (but any of the 4 above, but 'all' we need is a RT - so have to limit the investment some) G- Pouncey (could also be a C) C- Wisniewski OLB- Ayers S- Moore, Carter FA would have or still could have some bearing on some of these positions (most noteably G) .... Trades could also impact our picks ... such as Carey, Starks, Crowder, Merling, Bell could all bring in extra picks - Carey or Starks could fetch a good return. Starks would not change our draft landscape with our current depth along the DL (assuming we keep Soliai, and don't trade him for a ransom - which i don't recomend); whereas, Carey would dictate a T addition. Crowder, Merling or Bell does not change the above.
Replacing Koa Misi with Akeem Ayers because you don't think that Misi is going to be a good enough pass rusher doesn't make a load of sense.
not sure about the increased questions this year .... i talked about this last year and during the season this year .... our draft and FA picks are actually harder now, as we need specific talents -- not throwing multiple players at a problem to see what sticks or 'fits' .... it's harder to find the last few pieces of a championship team -- and despite Henne's disappointing '10 and Parcells bolting ... that is where we still are. We could debate, but we are about 5-7 pieces from being championship caliber. FS: unless some S does splendidly at the combine, none will chosen in rd 1 (at least FS -- what we need) ... RD 2 or 3 or FA, or just stick with Bell another year WR: will make their mark in the 40 time (at least for what we need) ... we have enough of the 'quick' guys -- we need a legitimate burner ... not too many to choose from [Smith and Jernigan and to a lesser extent Young] RBs can and will be had whenever FA does happen ... but if there is a season, there will be FA ... but the option for Ingram or Williams is there G: FA or Pouncey in late RD 1 (who could end up at C anyway) ... not as good as his brother, but only a shade behind - rated as the best G and best or 2d best C ... so you 'could' draft Pouncey, have him play G this year and move to C next; or draft him and sign Hicks and move him this year. T: Carey is healthy and returns; trade Carey and sign a FA or draft a T late 1st ... [Camiri] TE: FA QB: sign a FA back-up in Dixon or Stanton, draft Kaepernick in RD2, or another project later .... but get rid of Thigpen I just think that our options at #15, if forced to pick there, are extremely limited - when bounced against our needs ... which is, of course, why everyone and their brother has us locked in on Ingram as a good, solid, safe pick .... but i would be hard to convince that we won't trade down to get that #2 back, assuming there is no CBA prior to the draft (or not timely enough to effect the draft), so we couldn't make a player trade instead. but if i were Ireland and could get the #2 back from either Carey or Starks .... i would still trade down so i could have 2 X #2s .....
it does IF you think Misi can fall in at ILB and solidify that position with Dansby ... instead of trying to find someone else along the way ... I like Edds, but think Misi would be better ... and he has already shown himself to be a better OLB than Crowder (regardless of scheme), which should transition him equally on the inside. our defense was good last year ... noted ... but do we just roll on with it - or try to make it elite so it can carry the load. it was also good because of our front 7 play (Misi was eh, Crowder and Dobbins were not) ... regardless of our CBs potential. Can you imagine our front 7 with Wake, Misi, Dansby, and 1 more fierce, talented OLB ..... W-O-W ... we would actually have a shut down defense! No matter, it is not likely we go OLB in rd 1 ... but this is about reasonable alternatives
I'm not a fan of Torey Smith. IMO he's more of an athlete and less of a receiver. I don't care how the draft goes as long as either LeShoure, Daniel Thomas, or Mark Ingram are on the offense along with Greg Little. If that means trading back and taking Little at the end of the 1st and Daniel Thomas in the 2nd, then so be it. It makes us better and gives us a vastly improved playmaking ability. Little, Kaepernick, Daniel Thomas, Owen Marecic, Charles Clay 1-2-3-4-5 would be my ideal draft.... with FA going toward Oline, #2 TE, and #2 RB.
Todd, can't argue with your picks ... albeit, nearly all of them are remarkable 'athletes' vice polished position players. Each 1 of your 1st 4 'could' turn out to be special players .... does Little have the 4.3 speed we need ?? I know his combine performance is critical to his draft status. Heck, we could trade down twice and probably still get all 4 of those ..... essentially 2 in rd 2 (Little / Kaepernick) and 2 in rd 3 (Thomas / Marecic) ..... i take it you are good with Carey and Bell for another year?? as i see no FS in your top 5 .... realize Carey would be a wash of sorts .... read we get a pick, spend a pick on a T.
Bell is the Strong Safety. I thought it was a mistake in the first post, but you said it again, so.... Do you mean Clemons or do you think that both safety positions are needed? Bell is starting to get up there in age, so I could see an argument being made... Just wanna be clear.
because i believe that Jones can take over for Bell at SS this year (making him expendable) .... its FS that we need unless we think Clemons is ready to make that step and bring his game up a notch -- but if there was prospect or a veteran out there that could come in and take over at FS AND be a leader of the secondary, i'm all for it. It is looking like FS is not a strong or deep position in this year's class, certainly not anyone special there. Clemons is 'ok' ... just doesn't have special written on him. IF we are looking at 'elite' for the defense, then we need a boost at FS. Amaya has some promise, but don't see him taking over for Clemons ....
YB is not going anywhere, all he has done is have 3 straight seasons of 100+ tackles, and should be even better in Yr #2 of Nolan's defense. I do think there are several backup linebackers who are roster jeopardy: Dobbins, Crowder, Spitler, Francis, Moses, all could be looking for new addresses in 2011, there is not an athlete among that group, Spitler could stick due to ST play, and MAYBE Dobbins, but both could just as easily be gone.
Pads .... don't know, Jones accounted for himself quite well when given the opportunity this year ..... which is not a knock on Bell, Jones just looks like he has more 'big' play capability. absolutely agree on the LB corps ..... less Dansby, Misi and Wake -- and looking forward to Edds being healty ... the rest are nothing to write home about. i think we've generally agreed on our LBs ....
Little doesn't have the 4.3 speed (I could see him running a 4.49), but he can attack the heck out of the ball downfield like Braylon Edwards to make up for it IMO. That would be awesome if we could trade down twice. I remember when I was a kid that I always wanted the high draft picks, and now I'm like "hell with it! Pile on the 2nd & 3rd rounders!" lol. I think highly of Kaep, but I could scratch him for Oline or a Safety should someone worthy be available. Marecic I love b/c he's just a tough throw back player who will give you his last drop of blood for a victory. If we spread it out more, then I'd like to see a fullback who's a little more versatile than inconsistent Lou. Despite him being one of my favorite guys in the draft, I'm still flexible for another selection. I agree with you about Clemons even though I'm a Clemson guy. He's a good player and shouldn't cost us games, but at the same time he's never been a playmaker and I don't see that aspect of his game being a part of his make up. However, I do think he's good enough to prevent us from throwing a high draft pick at his replacement, unless such a player has ball-hawking potential like Rahim Moore. Either that or I'd let Rashad & Clemons duke it out and grab a smart, instinctive, playmaking, football lovin SS like DeAndre McDaniel. All I know is I've hit the "overthinking it" wall b/c there are like 15 guys I really like with only 5 spots to get them. Part of me says: "lets go after playmakers in the draft, and nail down Oline & TE needs in FA with guys we can plug and play from day 1. Another part of me says: "the strength of our team is defense, so let's do what we need to do to make it dominant, even if that means trading up (using mostly players if possible) to grab Von Miller or Robert Quinn (if he should drop a little) to boost our pass rush. The 3rd part of me says "lets do our best to trade back and grab a top Olineman 1st, and then pray we can still land our playmakers. The last part of me says "lets trade back and get our seambusting TE in Rudolph". I agree that my first 4 are unpolished, but that also could mean getting great talent for a bargain price that might normally cost us major bucks in FA to acquire. Almost forgot...... well thought out opening post by the way. Definitely good s#!t for conversation. How does your brain work for this stuff? Do you start out at the end, the solution, and try to work your way backwards while filling in all the missing pieces? I like to use that strategy.
If we're stuck at #15, then I'd want it to go 1. Ingram 3. Little (or Jernigan/Young) 4. Owen Marecic (or Quizz Rodgers if he falls/or Zach Hurd). 5. Charles Clay 6. Tyrod Taylor. That hits RB, WR, FB, HBack, and Xfactor..... with Oline & TE in FA. Too many ways to skin a cat here.
Good stuff Phin, were very much on the same page..A while ago I said that Von Miller would be the only guy I would go defense for..Hes top 5, no chance..So that means offense, either at 15, or if we trade down. You know iam about CKap and Dalton..2 favs, in order, relative to round slot. I think you have to recoup the 2nd, and others, via trade of current players..and thats gonna take some tough decisions, for me Carey, Crowder, Merling wouldn't be so bad, The bullfrog would, but RJ looks jacked and ready..I might go for that if I can get the right pick. Ingram Ckap.. Little.This man is our returner as well, thats why he take precedent for me. Havili..Theres your Hback right there.. man could I do damage with those 4, with Marshall, Bess, Shock, Fasano, sheee# I dont talk about the draft unless I plug one of the most gifted, explosive, talented, and hope to the football gods, player that WANTS to be the X player, and be talked into defining a new position for the NFL. Tyrod Taylor..This kid is not 200 lbs.. Hes a Solid, superior athlete..so sudden with his feet, can break ankles.And if he did come out and say he wants to be the X , I would think about gambling on him instead of little. I dont know how I squeeze Dalton in there, but if we dont get Tyrod, love to add Dalton with Ckap.. AJ green is so good, hes so graceful, the head does not move when he runs full speed, and the feet literally glide in route....The ultimate deep threat with that still head.. Nice call on VD and Odrick.. Dont know how this damn Dline is gonna shake out...but Odrick and our best young Dlineman {Starks} are in a battle, someone is comin off the bench, and I dont like that for first round picks..disturbing.. our defense was #6 overall, and #2 in the red zone, their young, their fast, and their being well coached..on its own we could be looking at a top 3 unit. This has always been a draft that needed to be offensive laden, needs to stay that way.
DJ, agreed on the offense focus ... and those picks, but i do like Todd's guy Marecic over Havili, he has so much versatility ... there are only 3 questions on defense: NT, OLB, and FS ... can we hold tight and not make any moves, sure - lock Soliai up, keep Misi at OLB and see what Edds can do at ILB against Crowder/Dobbins, and see what Clemons can do in year 2 of starting or see what Allen/Smith can do at FS and nickel. don't get me wrong, there is the overall issue of depth that always needs to be addressed - especially at LB and FS as noted above, but at the starter level - we could just stand pat and field a likely top 10 defense again this year (and only lose MCD along the way) .... But as you say, that's why Starks is 'potential' trade bait (all the way through TC) .... with every team needing quality (All-Pro) DL help. Thanks reference the last 2 picks (i even predicted the Marshall trade last year) ... but as my name suggests - i only make observations based off of evaluations from all the true genius' on this site like CK, BOM, CON, alen, Todd, KB, yourself, Pad, and the list keeps growing (incredible really) - then make an assessment off of our needs/requirements, and front office tendencies ... i'm not smarter than anyone else for sure ...
If he came out and said he'd be open to an xfactor role, then I'd jump on him much earlier than the 6th round. I wasn't excited about the Pat White pick even though I supported the kid and loved him as a college player. However, I'd have an instant stiffie if Tyrod's name were called. 3 or 4 years from now we could be talking about a a major playmaking WR, but until then he can at least contribute to the offense in special packages and the return game, which IMO would be perfectly fine for a #5 WR. It beats the snot out of what we have right now. lol. What receivers in the NFL have his combination of size and athleticism/suddenness? Not many that I can think of. How would you feel if we traded Odrick for a late 2nd and a 5th..... that ended up becoming Kaepernick and Tyrod?........ And then traded our 1st back 2 times and grabbed Rudolph at 2a, Quizz Rodgers or Jernigan 2b, Greg Little 3a, Daniel Thomas 3b, Owen Marecic 4th, OLB Chris Carter 5th...... with proven, ready Olinemen coming in FA? The Patriots pull that kind of crap off, so why can't the Fins? I know you like Havili, but Marecic is my boy.
Watch the following video at your own risk, guys....... b/c doing so will only leave you wanting Marecic in Aqua & Orange in a bad way. lol. IMO we haven't seen the best of Owen yet b/c his duties have been split between 2 positions. If we draft him and let him settle into 1 position, he'll be an impact player for us for a long time. He's one of these guys who makes everyone around him better, regardless of how much time he spends on the field, and IMO that's worth a 4th round pick by itself. He might not be the most athletic etc etc, but he has the same heart, dedication, work ethic, desire, and passion that made Zach Thomas great under similar talent. Owen will become a master technician in all aspects of his game in the NFL, mark my words. [video=youtube;7WPFN4ClpiI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WPFN4ClpiI[/video]
Friend Larryfinfan is on the money with this one. RB, Center, Guard will where we'll probably spend our picks & treasure in 2011.
It makes me ill thinking about trading Odrick, I dont think you can get away with it without making it look like a really bad GM move..The dline situation is not gonna end all pretty, were gonna either lose MCD after turning him into a stud in his prime without compensation, or were not gonna get value in a trade with Starks...It sucks, but if Irish can work some small miracles, I would love to keep the top 5 and move Merling at all costs for a pick..Take the hit there if your gonna take the hit.. TT runnin that 4.45 made me drool...Hes gonna be a bastard I know it... Todd Iam not a big Thomas fan, and regardless of my fondness for Havili's versatile game, I like the toughness of Marecic, this offense needs more of that, I just think the better offensive football player is havili, and that is what this draft is all about for me..unless you think Marecic is good enough to take reps from crowder..lol. I like Colin Mccarthy, I think he could move inside and be a player, if hes around later, he or Sturdivant will be my only defensive pick later on, I see no need to add late round defensive depth over offensive role players and depth, and no way am I going defense early.. I think you gotta get Ckap in this draft, hes so raw but talented, you might get that deal this year that will pay off like a first rounder later..This guy has the right makeup..
Agree with your dline comment. I wouldn't trade Odrick unless McD were re-signed. Forget about JaQuizz in the first 3 rounds after that 4.6+ forty run. lol. Mikel LeShoure looks like a beast! Kaep is my favorite QB this draft, too. If I had to call out a QB with the best chance at becoming a probowler, it's Kaep IMO.
They had to use a sun dial to time Pouncey and Wisnieski today. If people are thinking either of these guys will contribute a lot as starters in 2011, think again. Pouncey is definately not his brother. Moffit needed needed an hourglass to be timed. Anyone even imagining that any of the above players could be pulling guards had better think again.
that's why i go back to MCD being the keg cog in how the DL shakes out ... assuming we retain Soliai - which is a no brainer in my book (but you 'could' trade him, get picks and then sign someone like Rogers) ... always looking for options. IF we keep MCD, to me it means we are going to deal someone .... and that can only be Starks or Merling in my book. Merling won't fetch much, and Starks could easily bring in a 2d. I do agree, depening on how it unfolds, that we could trade down twice in rd 1 and end up with at late 1, and 2 X 2s, the 3d and maybe another 5 or something. If we the CBA gets done and we make trades, then we could be in an even better position with either Carey or Starks. I don't think Odrick is very tradeable right now, and IF he isn't healthy - then Starks would be off the table even IF we resign MCD. The guy i want most out of this draft is Kaepernick in rd 2 .... i could mix and match around that for WR, and RB depending on who is there @ 15 not named Ingram, how many times a trade down can happen, and IF the CBA is done before the draft; because again - the only known threats to choosing a RB in rd 1 are NE (17, 28) and NO (24). But having potential trade bait in Starks (DE) and Carey (RT) in our back pocket could work out in our favor in the right circumstances.
