Separate names with a comma.
Surprised I didn't think of this before -- perhaps you could point us toward a media organization that's used the data so we can see it in print...
We actually don't. And even if we did know it's bad, we wouldn't know why it's bad. It's entirely possible that the offensive line could be...
I wish I could afford that. Unfortunately it looks like we won't be privy here to the information you're going on.
I'm sorry if I've offended you. I was merely wanting to analyze the data along with you. I'd be happy to send the money via Paypal. Would that...
I'd be very interested in seeing them. If you would, please provide those statistics as well as the same ones for the rest of the teams in the...
What seems to be missing in this defense is that roving, sideline-to-sideline middle linebacker who can make the plays the defensive line creates...
How do we know Tannehill isn't largely the albatross hanging over the team's neck? Again, these viewpoints seem to start with the assumption or...
That doesn't seem to jibe with the fact that the defensive coordinator was fired.
This is the issue I have in general with this topic. It's as though the quarterback is understood by some to be merely a hapless victim of his...
I'm not sure what this has devolved to here, but I've made my contribution. Thanks folks. :up:
They aren't. When there isn't a sack, obviously the "time to sack" measurement isn't done.
Interestingly, if you flip those two statements around, you might actually have the reason why the Packers' running game is so good. The QB...
How about Blake Bortles?
Aaron Rodgers has the same "time to sack" as Tannehill this year (2.8 seconds), yet his QB rating and TD to INT ratio are above his career...
I don't refuse to account for them. I'm simply discounting pressure as one of them.
There is no "time to pressure" stat. Tannehill is getting sacked 0.35 seconds more quickly on average this year than last. When you consider the...
As I said above, there are obviously variables other than pressure that are far more influential in his performance.
Like I said, that belief works and jibes with the data if you also believe Tannehill is one of the most elusive QBs in the league when dropping...
That doesn't jibe with the data that show Tannehill isn't sacked anywhere near the most often in the league, nor anywhere near the most often in...
While it's true throwaways negatively affect QB rating, Tannehill has thrown the ball away 8 times this year. Twice per game on average. Last...
If the sort of pressure applied were significantly worse than last year's, don't you think Tannehill would be getting sacked more often, and more...
And does that include Tannehill, or is he absolved of blame because of what's supposedly going on around him?
He's actually attempting deep passes (20+ yards in the air downfield) more often this year than last year (14.6% in 2015 to 9% in 2014), despite...
He's actually getting sacked less often this year than last year, and less often when pressured this year than last year. In other words, he's...
Last year Ryan Tannehill was pressured once every 2.6 times he dropped back to pass, and his QB rating was 92.8, his YPA was 6.9, and his TD to...
Campbell needs to put that one up on the bulletin board.
There is little or no reliable or definitive evidence that Tannehill's play is attributable to what's going on around him.
I'm not sure you should attribute that to the head coach exclusively. If there is a winning culture in place, as there has been for over a decade...
The Packers were coming off a Super Bowl win, their offense was largely responsible for their success, and Ross and company thought that bringing...
Another good article here folks: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/dolphins/2015/10/14/dan-campbell-miami-joe-philbin/73967692/
...and even the late-career Marinos....
The only way the Suh signing was going to be worth it was if he made the run defense much better while at the same time collapsing the pocket...
What I know is that all QBs have variation in their performances from year to year, and QBs like Brees vary within a range of performance...
Does the bolded part below sound like that to you?
No kidding. The guy's coached four games for Christ's sake.
Right, what I mean is the establishment of a perennial winner, which is dependent on a QB and head coach mix that sustains that sort of success....
I suspect the Hall of Fame voters will disagree with you, when Drew Brees enters on his first ballot.
So much of this involves getting lucky enough to have a good quarterback and a good head coach at the same time. Look at what Bill Belichick did...
That era was probably a Drew Brees away from becoming something very solid and long-term. Saban had his issues with player relations, but a lot...
The one constant throughout that period: inadequate quarterback play.
Jim Bates.
A symptom of poor leadership among the players, which again may or may not be secondary to their disenchantment with the former head coach and...
The bigger problem in my opinion is that he still seems to have an inability to multi-task between progressing through his reads and recognizing...
There may have never been a more self-motivated player in the history of sports than Michael Jordan.
And here's why that's relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_loafing#Rope-pulling_experiments
Another great article here:...
All good points, especially the one I bolded. However, it's possible that Campbell has his finger on the pulse of the team enough to know that...
Basically the "miracle" here would need the following ingredients to occur: The players were so disenchanted with and demoralized by the former...
The way in which it was done may have some bearing on the issue, as well. This is quite a bit different from "cleaning house" during the...
Once bitten twice shy. There really isn't any evidence yet to suggest that the team is on any better a trajectory than it appeared to be on...
First there would have to be a being who everyone recognized as omniscient, and who intervened and determined the winner. Let me know when that...
There is an implicit philosophy in that statement that could be incorrect, however, in that what Tannehill is thought to need to "overcome" could...
The fact that Tannehill looks no different than he did at the beginning of last year in terms of his command of the position suggests the coaches...
It'll be interesting to see whether Dan Campbell, a man who seems to have his finger on the pulse of all areas of the team good and bad, and who...
And the way the game is played in this day and age, it is a problem, and it's what I meant above by how being 10th in the league isn't good. You...
Or perhaps he's saving the Dolphins from an even worse fate. Do we know?
Let's just say for the sake of argument that Tannehill is "top ten." If he is, then he's still in the bottom of the top ten (i.e., #9 or 10), and...
Those few things there are the key ingredients of a good head coach. Think about how far and wide you'd have to search to find someone with all...
How can you tell that the performance you're seeing on the field is attributable to deficits in physical talent versus deficits in emotional factors?
The norm in the league is that QBs don't become great. Until Tannehill achieves greatness, the default explanation and prediction surrounding it...
He can do it, but the lynchpin will be whether there is enough leadership among the players to pick up the message and run with it. If there...
Lots of shuffling going on here. The players are certainly getting the message that the team brass believes they have untapped talent. The...
Is this where we're supposed to go back and forth? ;)
And there's your indictment of the leadership among the players. Nobody knew? Come on. Campbell may be the second coming of Bill Cowher, but...
Awesome stuff here: http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/12/nfl-week-5-monday-morning-quarterback-peter-king
And who knows whether that's due at least in part to Tannehill's inability to hit the long ball and make plays under pressure. When you're unable...
The same thing also happened when Jim Bates took over for Wannstedt.
I think even in those cases, what you'll see is that the team plays better, because there are more quality elements of it (defense, running game,...
Not necessarily. The players may have leadership among them that was so disenchanted with the former coaching staff that it was essentially...
There seems to be an implicit philosophy that QBs are dependent on their surroundings to succeed, when I suspect the opposite is true, that QBs,...
The difficult thing to stomach about Tannehill is that he rarely makes a play that's based on his own athletic ability and his command of the...
I'll refrain from predicting the rest of the season, but I would bet the farm on the Dolphins next week.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/sports/football/former-teammates-coaches-describe-dan-campbell-as-/nnzLy/ Some of these perspectives on this...
At the very least there should be an attempt to replicate exactly what Suh was doing in Detroit. You don't pay this guy all that money and not do...
If inspiration didn't have that sort of effect, there would be no such thing as the upset. The team with more talent would win every time.
Leadership among the players. This team has essentially just been handed to the players on a silver platter. You now have a coaching staff with...
The Al Saunders addition and the shuffling of offensive coaches fits with what I said here. We'll see what happens when Campbell has time to turn...
That was in direct response to a question from the media of what he believes makes him qualified for the job. In that scenario he either says...
All players' performances vary.
The issue is that some people profess to know what Tannehill would be doing under different circumstances, when that in fact is a complete unknown.
And what does that say, if your pressures aren't coming at any greater rate than the league average?
No one with any desire to have a solid resume is going to take that job. It's going to have to be a promotion from within.
I think if you read the original post and truly try to understand it, you'll realize that it rests on something far greater than the meaning or...
The point is that the team's lethargy may have less to do with Joe Philbin's personality than with the players' belief that their best efforts...
Not sure, but if Campbell wants to start by toughening up the lines like he said, the team is going to have to run the ball a whole lot more....
The percentage of sacks Tannehill took on pass dropbacks last year actually wasn't above the average range in the NFL.
Well of course the intended result for Stephen Ross is that the team makes a turnaround.
True. You could really argue that if Philbin had this short a leash this season, he should've never been allowed to enter it. If you're going to...
Right, and that's another possibility, that Campbell makes changes in the coordination of the offense and defense that restore the players' faith...
I actually think that if the changes are made that allow the players to believe their talent can make them compete at a high level in the league,...
"Backfire" may have been a poor choice of words. By "backfire" I mean "not produce the intended results."
Frustration can be easily mislabeled as "passion."
I'm sure most of us saw this play Sunday night:...
If that's true, then I think it's probably part of what seemed to be angering Dan Campbell in his press conference today. He seemed pretty...
Just watched the full 20-minute press conference, and I was very, very impressed with this guy. Now you have a head coach who's going to create a...
Are you implying those players would've been good had they not been harassed so much early in their careers? If so, how do we know?
Wow. Has there ever been a case in NFL history where the head coach and the coordinators were fired mid-season? I can't remember one.
What tells us we should place the responsibility for that on the coaching staff versus placing it on the player himself? Is it always the case...
What bothers me about Tannehill at this point is that he still looks "young." Still no command of the offense, still no command of the position....
And talent is but one explanation for that. Otherwise, the more talented team would always win.
Tannehill needs to hit that open pass to Jennings.
But the same sample size is adequate to support a view that inferior talent explains the team's performance?
In a week in which the Dolphins had to play inspired to stave off questions about the stability of its head coach's job, to come out and play like...
They just posted a stat on TV about the differences in the number of sacks among the defensive linemen between this year and last. Another thing...
There's a significant difference in the team's ability to run the ball this year, however, that isn't anywhere near fully explained by any...
Painful to watch.
The whole team did that last week.
What's interesting is that Suh, the biggest detractor of Coyle that we know of, destroyed those two big gainers with tremendous effort on his...
How would you be able to tell the difference?
Heaven forbid they should ever run a constraint play at a time when the opposing defense is expecting pass.
Defense is really poor, folks. Bills scored 40+ with Tyrod Taylor at QB, Jets on-pace for 40 as well. Wait till this team plays somebody with an...
If Ivory wouldn't have stuttered there that could've been about a 30-yard run.
The problem here is that the leadership among the players isn't on-board with the leadership among the coaches. There isn't an organization where...
If so, that's not the sort of guy I'd spend that money on.
Another "inkblot" taken too far here.
It's worth considering, however, that the money Suh is making is preventing the team from improving those other areas of the defense.
No, we shouldn't, because optimism in an area like this is always likely to be based far more on hope than on something realistic and tangible.
And they may be, compared to some other circumstances (like coming into a final game with a 1-14 record, for example), but remember there's...
Why is that? Do you think for example that when a team is playing its last game of the year and has a 1-14 record, it's going to be motivated as...
Problems tackling and problems getting into a rhythm on offense would suggest to me an emotional flatness, and I believe we've seen that in each...
The problem with "the film" is that, despite its ability to be viewed by everyone, it's still to a large degree an "inkblot," in that the same...
And the fact that he occupies so much real estate despite his newness to the team suggests that there was indeed a void of player leadership...
I think that's a logical distinction that may have some weight, and it's certainly consistent with what we know about Philbin, but the key...
If two players can tell some other player where he isn't going to be in the locker room, that is indeed power. It may come from veteran status or...
I'm not saying it's necessarily unusual; I'm saying its a reflection of the power those two players have among their teammates. They get more...
Exhibit A: the "Manhattan" portion of the locker room we've heard about. Notice neither player has done a thing on the field so far. What we're...
The difference with this team now, however, is that Suh is going nowhere, and the "player in the locker room" right now may just be Suh, but in a...
Sounds familiar. ;)
If that were the case, I doubt it would deter Suh from giving less than 100% here. If he's in demand elsewhere, he'll make his money either way,...
My sense of what's going on here at this point is that Suh is dissatisfied with the coaching staff, and the "power" he has from having his job...
You're neglecting to consider that the team serves to harm itself more by parting with such players than by tolerating less than what's expected...
Entirely possible. We're a forum full of fans, of whom I am but one. It's entirely possible that 99.9% of what we say here is horse****.
How about Tony Dungy, who was also just as dry and emotionless as Philbin, but who won a Super Bowl?
I will write the following in first-person perspective, as though I'm a Miami Dolphins player, talking directly to Stephen Ross. Although its...
I've been reluctant to place blame on Philbin, preferring instead to speculate about a wide variety of possible causes, but I agree that if you...
What exactly has Bill Lazor done to be considered adequate head coaching material?
Might be time to give this a little reconsideration as well.
Might be time to give this a little reconsideration.
And you wouldn't see Bill Belichick doing that, yet he's coaching a dynasty.
Notice the constraint plays run on that drive.
I'm watching a flash flood warning by my local news right now that's more interesting than this game.
Watch how many constraint plays the Dolphins run in the second half here. Screens, draws, etc. The Bills know they'll be passing. The question...
Precisely. And don't discount the effect of Joey Porter on the other side of the ball that year, as well. That was the last time the Dolphins...
The point is that coming out flat (or getting behind early) may be far more a function of talent than of coaching. If Sparano's teams between...
How did they do in the three seasons prior to that? I'd be surprised to find that a team that didn't make the playoffs in those three years,...
I don't think the players look to the coach for that sort of thing. I think they witness their teammates being inspired and making plays, and...
Implicit in that hypothesis is your belief that Philbin can recognize what the opponent is doing, or he couldn't make the in-game adjustment...
If that were true, then you'd have a coaching staff that wasn't as good at gameplanning in the week's worth of time before the game, as it was at...
How exactly would a head coach get a team hyped up, if the team isn't already?
All of this stuff is indeed interrelated. Coming out fired up is related to having a long-term goal of winning big, which is related to the...
What that would suggest to me is that the team doesn't have a crystallized enough long-term goal, and so it has to function more on the much...
You could certainly choose to scapegoat him in that way, but that doesn't mean the mechanism of action in this area necessarily lies with him.
I thought we were starting with the premise that "flat" reflected an emotional state, at its root.
You could just as easily hypothesize that the teams with better leaders among the players are able to generate more drive in the locker room...
Just because the head coach is in a position of authority over the players and makes a great number of decisions about them, doesn't mean he has a...
But by virtue of his contract Suh is far more a fixture here than Philbin. So is Tannehill. That creates power. Those players have to use that...
You're neglecting to consider that Ndamukong Suh, for example, makes far more money than Joe Philbin. That creates a great deal of power. How...
To monitor closely the leadership structure among the players, and make adjustments if necessary, and monitor the performance of the assistants....
The misguidance some people have in this area in my opinion is in likening a football team to a troop of soldiers, awaiting their instructions...
Why isn't that on the players? You're essentially espousing a philosophy where the players are "emotional blank slates," sitting around waiting...
If that were true, then having a "team cancer" (a term usually reserved to describe players who derail the team culture and make it devolve into...
Not completely. Some of it depends on the dumb luck perhaps of somehow acquiring a quarterback (or a another very influential player, but it's...
The difference with Belichick is that he has a longstanding leader with a great deal of power within the organization, who's bought in to...
I think probably the most reliable measures you're going to get of "flatness" (or the lack thereof) are how surely the team is tackling on...
All of this stuff comes from leaders among the players who keep their teammates galvanized toward a post-season goal. Are there any of those on...
I can understand the rationale, but you possibly introduce all sorts of confounds when you do this in an imbalanced way for only one player. And...
Here's a question: how has the stadium looked and functioned for UM so far? Any noticeable difference?
You can do it, but unless you do it for every QB, you're inherently acting in a biased manner against Tannehill, perhaps under the guise that the...
But even then you'd need stats to determine what would happen to the league average YPA if you did the same thing for every other QB. In other...
There are strengths and weaknesses of every approach. The weakness of film is that, unless you're superhuman, you can't possibly make...
Once you have a pretty firm idea of what makes teams win in this league (and that knowledge is certainly readily available to anyone who seeks...
And what comes with that is the possibility that Tannehill's early-season YPA is an aberration, and may regress to where it was in the past as the...
If it wasn't, they would've shut down the sportsbooks years ago. Vegas doesn't do any losing propositions. ;) The area where this has been pretty...
No they sure don't. I suspect Dennis Lock is making more per year than any of us:...
Again, though, in this area, you have to consider the correlation between YPA and win percentage, and the expected increase in win percentage...
"Meaningfully" above average is what I'm getting at here. Once you're distinguished from the average range (at least a SD on either side of the...
Given the correlation between YPA and win percentage, what I'm looking at here is the increase in win percentage a team would be expected to get...
What I mean is the definition of above the average range in just one distribution. Everybody within one SD on either side I would term as being...
You simply do the team YPA across the league. Nobody else has thrown a pass for the Dolphins. Right, but not significantly so, that is if you...
I'm considering the upward trend for Tannehill, while also considering the upward trend for the league. Tannehill's current YPA, for example,...
I have the league average YPA this year as 7.38, with a standard deviation of 1.27, and so Tannehill's YPA so far this year isn't above average....
I haven't said a single thing about the future. What I'm saying is that his performance so far this year, while better for him, hasn't elevated...
And among 32 teams, 14th is average.
Well don't be so sure. After his rookie year, he's been merely average in the statistics that matter. In his rookie year he was even worse,...
It involves no "assuming" to talk about his performance so far. He's had a performance so far, and so far it's average among the league's QBs....
I'm talking about what's probable, not just possible. http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-part-1.html
The problem is that the rest of the league is getting "better" as well, in that the passing game is expanding to such a degree league-wide that...
The Dolphins' offense is looking really piss-poor so far. If that doesn't change prepare for a long season. And the defense isn't looking like...
I think they asked him to throw far too much in the fourth quarter Sunday.
Obviously, though, if you run the ball, you can't possibly be sacked.
Right, but in the absence of data that can refute the causal link between the percentage of rushing attempts and the offensive success, and in the...
Then you don't "physically" run the ball. You do it with traps, chops, counters, and other more "finesse" strategies. What you don't do is...
Again, how do you feel about the sacks? Those were negative yards on pass plays, and drive-stallers. Runs for zero yardage, or even slightly...
How'd the two sacks look in person?
The two bolded plays are problems. Sacks are usually drive stallers. Those were pass plays called on first down, and the starting left tackle...
By that logic, you should also say there was no point in trying to run the ball in quarters two and three, when the offense played very well and...
Defensive linemen and linebackers (and to some extent even safeties) react to a run regardless of whether it's been working previously, and that...
I'm sure you're aware that regardless of the defense that's called, defensive linemen and linebackers react to a pass play much differently than...
Only the portion I boldfaced.
And that (keeping the defense guessing) focuses only on the other team. There are also benefits to your own team of being balanced.
See below:
You're describing things there that would argue for more running, not less.
Precisely. And just as soon as you stop running because you aren't successful at it, when the game situation doesn't dictate the need to, then...
It's awfully hard to argue they would've hurt, when the team had a 4.9 YPA and punted four times on four possessions, with very little movement of...
We can debate whether it was extreme, but again, why change anything? When your offensive YPA is nearly 10, keep doing what you're doing! :yes:
YPA differential. Notice when the Dolphins were holding their own against the Jaguars with regard to YPA, the game was tied. When the Dolphins'...
Again, it's not the success or the lack thereof, but the frequency of run versus pass. The "desperation" you're seeing is a reflection less of me...
I'd say something about myself in response, but I'm really not all that interesting. Certainly not as interesting as the team, which is what...
Indeed. This team is already looking like it doesn't have the kind of character that's associated with the league's best teams. They were pretty...
And all that came to a crashing halt just as soon as the frequency of passing went from 63% to 94%. At that point Tannehill and the passing game...
My point has been only that, previously in the game, it was associated with that difference. The only sample of data that we have, and will ever...
Right, and it would be better to do neither, especially in a tie game when the game situation doesn't dictate that one approach be favored over...
And he may never be, but certainly not now. Essentially Bill Lazor called a fourth quarter as though he had one of the league's top QBs under...
In terms of success, yes. In terms of play-calling, no.
Assuming that's true and you aren't mistaken, despite that, it was only when the Dolphins' offense became one-dimensional by its own accord that...
So in the fourth quarter, were the Jaguars defending the run, or the pass. You tell me.
How do you know? What effect do you think it has on the offensive line when you become one-dimensional from a play-calling standpoint?
Sure there is. It's called balanced play-calling. There are reasons other than just running the ball. So at the same time that the Jaguars were...
You're focusing on the success of the running game, when, again, the productive factor is the attempts in the running game, i.e., balance. You...
Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills aren't looking too hot, so it looks like there will be room on a team that runs predominantly 3 WR sets.
I have to wonder if Tannehill is allowed to audible, and if not, why not, and if so, what his capabilities are in that regard.
Oh I gave up on that a long time ago. ;)
The correlation is with attempts in the run game (i.e., balance), not success.
Well that's what you saw. The offensive YPA went from nearly 10 down to 4.9 (indicative of a shorter passing game), and the team didn't score at...
Perhaps before their game-winning field goal? ;)
You seem to be incapable of understanding the point that there are benefits of being balanced and simply attempting to run, regardless of the...
If that was going on, it's an even better argument for running the ball, and an even greater indictment of the team that it didn't.
There might be an argument for not breaking the bank on a veteran player to the tune of Suh's contract until you have a coaching staff with a...
So why didn't the passing game keep on functioning in that way, or even better, when the thing that "wasn't working" was removed?
So then, once again, how did the pass offense function so much better, and the team erase a deficit on the scoreboard, by including so much more...
Right, but by the same token there is also an upper limit for everyone. There is really no evdience to suggest that Tannehill would be as good as...
The percentage of passes increased from 63% to 94% amidst a fourth-quarter tie. Look at it that way, then, if you want.
There's no reason to restrict the analysis to the running backs. Again, the Dolphins ran the ball 40% of the time in 2014 (with their running...
I wouldn't bank on that. The running game functioned very well last year, and Tannehill was only somewhat better than mediocre. The better...
The irony in the juxtaposition of those two statements in the same post is that Tannehill's performance declined tremendously (down to a 4.9 YPA,...
And 94% didn't work too well yesterday, either.
You won't find anywhere in this thread where I've asked for "more running" than the team exhibited in quarters one through three. What I've...
How did it help in quarters two and three, when the team ran the ball as frequently as it did in 2014, and erased its deficit on the scoreboard in...
The Dolphins ran the ball 37% of the time prior to the fourth quarter, which wasn't significantly less balanced than the 40% of the time they ran...
So then why not abandon the run earlier in the game, when it was clear the team wasn't running well? According to you it was a mistake to run the...
You don't seem to be getting the point that there are benefits to being balanced regardless of the production of one or the other elements of the...
He threw the ball 19 times in the fourth quarter. I'm not counting the last four, when it actually made sense not to run the ball. Again, the...
Prior to the fourth quarter: 25 passes (63%) 15 runs (37%) During the fourth quarter (prior to garbage time): 15 passes (94%) 1 run (6%) Over...
His numbers were very bad when the offense was the most imbalanced. When the offense was far more balanced, his numbers were far better.
But then why run the ball earlier in the game? If the run isn't having success after let's say the first quarter (as was the case yesterday), why...
But when you don't. run. the. ball., you also can't. pass. the. ball. That's the point.
The fourth quarter of yesterday's game began as a 20 to 20 tie. For nearly throughout that quarter, the game remained tied at 20. The Dolphins'...
I don't think necessarily anything in this regard. I'm merely describing a process that would help ensure a big expenditure of this sort isn't...
Then again, if you're going to pay somebody that sort of money, you ought to be comfortable giving him some sort of "voice" in this regard. That...
If you don't have a commitment to the running game, don't expect it to function well.
I would think you'd start by reviewing the film and taking a look at how the player played when his team was down on the scoreboard in meaningful...
And that's due to the imbalance toward the pass and away from the running game, not because they were "dinking and dunking." They need to get...
This was actually one of Tannehill and the passing offense's best games of his career in terms of pass efficiency. Its YPA was 8.2, which will...
I'd be interested to see how they did during the three years prior to that.
I'm with you there. I don't think he's capable of elevating a struggling team, but I think the team (including the coaches) has to go look itself...
This is why when you pay someone such a large percentage of your cap, you have to make sure it's someone with the sort of character that makes him...
I saw a lack of leadership. When the team was dominating in the second half, it should've put the nail in the coffin. Players have to show...
Now take a look at the likelihood of that by examining more than one game.
Imagine if Dion Jordan was out there playing the way the team intended for him to when it drafted him. He'd be in his prime disrupting plays...
I don't think you'll find many points being associated with teams whose offenses are imbalanced to the tune of 70% pass plays, as has the...
Inflation of stats via dinking and dunking isn't consistent with an 8.2 YPA. An 8.2 YPA on a season-long basis would've put Tannehill 3rd in the...
Folks, Tannehill had a 108 rating and an 8.2 YPA today. That wins 90+ percent of games in the NFL. Look elsewhere for your scapegoat.
Right, but by doing that, you're excluding the variation in winning associated with the poor teams in the league. What you want to do in this...
The team all of the sudden seems to have no pass-rusher, and that's a major problem in today's NFL.
Bottom of tier 2 most of the time, top of tier 2 the minority of the time (like today).
The dependent variable in any sort of analysis like this should simply be win percentage. Super Bowl appearances are a low base-rate phenomenon....
How are you defining importance? Remember that if you're using team rankings in terms of rushing yards allowed, you have the confound of how many...
What are those rankings based on? The most appropriate numbers to consider would be opposing teams' YPA (for pass defense) and opposing teams'...
If you want to determine whether run or pass defense is more important, take a look at the players teams are paying the highest amounts of money...
And that again would be a function of offensive YPA, i.e., the ability to put up points offensively and make other teams one-dimensional as they...
I don't think we can say that with certainty at this point. If a running back averaged let's say 3.2 yards per carry (another measure of...
What bothered me about Tannehill is that he didn't seem to show any more command of the offense than he has in the past, whether that be with...
This offense has to be far more balanced than it was yesterday for Tannehill to be effective.
I'll take the win, but what bothered me about the game was that the Dolphins didn't seem like a good team in any phase. Ask yourself if any part...
The correlation for carries 11 through 19 is -0.31 (0.24 for carries 1 through 10). Carries 11 through 19 were 28.7% of the total carries;...
So I went ahead and did this, correlating yards per carry with the carry #, over all of 2014's games, and that correlation is -0.30. So there is...
I'm not sure if you're understanding the first analysis that was done. Here's an example from one game in 2014: Patriots 1 13:05 1...
Why wouldn't that be the question of interest, with the hypothesis being that he performs either better or worse on later versus earlier carries...
The problem is that you're mixing two different analyses here. The first one is the correlation between the number of the rush and the yards...
In that situation you could stop there. No other analysis would be needed. True, but we don't have that situation here. Here, we have variation....
Here are the correlations between 1) the number of the rush within the game (rush #1, #2, #3, etc.), and 2) the yards gained on the rush, in each...
From 5.3 to 4.7: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14886/lamar-miller
The correlation is 0.45 for only the entire dataset (from 2014), taken from here:...
I'll recant that at this point and go with the more "middle ground" statement that he doesn't get worse. Looking more into the data, I think we...
Unless Tannehill gets hurt and Freeman plays during the regular season, there won't be a big enough sample size of meaningful play from which to...
No one is saying he gets better the more he carries the ball; they're simply saying he doesn't get worse the more he carries the ball. To show he...
What we know is that carries 11 and 12 in six games in 2014 were particularly bad (0.67 YPC on average), and carries beyond number 12 in other...
A mere 12% of 3rd-round picks become consistent starters in the league.
I'm not sure there are many lines in the league that produce at an exceptionally good level when their team has to have ground yardage, i.e., when...
You need to really focus in on post #63 here. Again, if Miller's performance is such that later carries result in better YPC than earlier...
You seem to have lost sight of the original statement that I responded to here, which was that he "was less effective the more carries he got"...
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillLa01/gamelog/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient
Hypothetically speaking, what if on carries 18 and 19, he averaged more yards per carry than on carries 1 through 10, but it wasn't sufficient to...
http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/A68809.html
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/370-carries-revisited http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/what-happens-after-300-carries/...
The original statement was that Miller "was less effective the more carries he got." That isn't true. He was actually more effective the more...
The problem there is that you had six games in 2014 in which he had only 11 or 12 carries total in a game, and in those games his number of yards...
If they're basing their beliefs about that on his past performance, as they should, then they should believe his production would increase if they...
You won't be able to find a post in which I've said that. What I'm saying, rather, is that the rationale for limiting Miller's carries because...
Nonetheless, he doesn't perform worse when he does carry the ball more. He performs better. Whether he would wear down or not clearly isn't...
Actually the correlation between his number of carries and his number of yards per carry, for his career, is 0.32. In 2014 that number was 0.45....
Assuming Welker can be signed for a contract consistent with a backup, he could be very valuable as depth at the slot position, given Lazor's...
And that's partially consistent with this: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol ...although you'll see that the Dolphins as a whole, to...
Right, but what I'm getting at is how much to attribute Miller's play to him versus his offensive line. If Miller is averaging more yards per...
Though, as the original post points out, Miller performed better on a yards per carry basis than DeMarco Murray, who was thought to be running...
That's a part of it, but the "success rate" statistic is a little more elaborate, in that it defines "success" as being more than just a positive...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2004/introducing-running-back-success-rate In that respect Miller was the "anti-Reggie Bush" in...
Lamar Miller is one of the best players on the team from a production-to-salary ratio perspective.
On the one hand I thought he was a good fit and wanted to see him signed, but on the other I'm glad to see the team holding fast to its appraisals...
Freeman's season in 2010 was better than any season Tannehill's had to date. Just about everything else he's done has been worse than anything...
You could certainly do that. Simply determine whether QB performance varies as a function of offensive line measures on a game-by-game basis, for...
I'm re-entering the discussion to address only this and not Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins specifically: And there may indeed be one, but its...
I'm done folks. Thanks for the discussion. :up:
You're not incoroporating the number of pass dropbacks the QBs in the table took. I covered that in post #126.
And the best we're going to do there is the percentage of pass dropbacks in which QBs are pressured. Or do you see a better method of extracting...
Not when Tannehill hasn't been pressured any more often than the average QB in the past two years.
And what does that mean, when his performance improved so much from one of those years to the next?
Both of them involve a statistic that 1) isn't strongly correlated with QB performance statistics, and 2) doesn't distinguish Tannehill from the...
So I suppose then that if you want to distinguish team sacks along the lines of the status of their QBs (starters or backups), then by definition...
Click on this link, scroll down to "Passing Offense," and click on the "Sk" column header: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2014/
What the video shows is that when people typically attribute a sack to the offensive line, there may be more to the story that isn't visible on...
Even if we were to go with the measure you prefer (sacks plus QB hits), it's still the case that the correlation between QB rating and the...
The Dolphins were 10th in the league in sacks in 2014.
What's interesting about these discussions about "sacks" is that Tannehill wasn't even sacked a significantly greater number of times than the...
I didn't say it was worse. I said it was a better and purer measure of offensive line play. You sound as if you're agreeing with me there, that...
I think you can when no one is providing the sort of subjective analysis that can counter what almost all of us, while watching the Dolphins'...
It isn't necessarily good or bad. It's simply the norm. You're not looking at the percentage of pressured pass dropbacks there.
That isn't a good argument because, by NFL standards, the frequency of pressure Tannehill has experienced isn't "adverse." It isn't significantly...
With regard to confirmation bias among people who are deeply emotionally invested in something, as we are here, I think we should simply...
This (the bolded portion above) is why I think the best and purest measure of offensive line play is the frequency of pressure surrendered on pass...
I think its influence pales in comparison to that of other variables. The issue here is that Ryan Tannehill was the first, first-round QB...
My position on it is summed up in post #83.
I raised the question hypothetically of whether it's negligible in post #81. I never said it was in fact negligible.
This is what I'm getting from Pro Football Focus for 2013: Team Passing Plays Sacks Allowed Hits Allowed Hurries Allowed Total...
My argument is simply that Tannehill's improvement from 2013 to 2014 didn't depend completely on the offensive line, and that's undebatable.
Good between 2009 and 2011, and then even worse than Tannehill's with Wallace in 2012, when Pittsburgh implemented a timing-based pass offense...
In terms of Tannehill's improvement in performance from 2013 to 2014, what do you make of the fact that the numbers you added (bolded above) were...
The relevant questions are: 1) how much variation there is in offensive line play throughout the league, which tells us how much of an...
What if, in contrast to conventional wisdom, the impact of offensive lines on QB play throughout the league is negligible? How much better do you...
I'm not saying anything about how much. I'm simply saying that his improvement obviously didn't depend completely on the improvement of the...
The fact that his performance improved significantly in the absence of improvement of the offensive line says that there are variables other than...
Right, it's only proof that there are highly influential variables at play that have nothing to do with the offensive line.
The fact that Tannehill improved a great deal from 2013 to 2014, with no measurable improvement in his offensive line in terms of pressure...
Ah, well hell, we might as well, eh? After all, we're Dolphins fans! :lol: ;) Sure, let's cut Tannehill's sacks down to a number that's 1.23...
Pressures indeed appear to have a much, much larger influence on QBs' performance than sacks. Again, however, when we look at the original...
The information I gave says that 1) he wasn't pressured significantly more than the average QB in the league, and 2) his completion percentage...
Given the data I mentioned, what would likely happen if you cut pressures in half -- across the league -- is that every QB's rating would increase...
That says nothing about whether it differentially explains Tannehill's performance, however, especially when you consider that 1) Tannehill wasn't...
Again, the issue is how much they affect QBs, in comparison to other variables. Just because a forum full of people have watched a QB get sacked...
And that's all I'm saying. :)
Sacks don't count as pass attempts when calculating QB rating. A pass wasn't thrown on those plays.
True. Speaking theoretically only. Regardless, the correlations are what they are.
Come on. You know what I mean. The correlations are weak when one is speaking of the percentage of the variance accounted for.
And if sacks affect those things -- the positive and the negative ones -- roughly equally, one would expect little to no relationship between...
I was addressing the comment that if sacks were halved, QBs' (or Tannehill's) performance would improve. That statement isn't supported by the...
What if it prevents an incompletion or an interception, which are also used to determine QB rating?
The question isn't whether it matters, but how much it matters, in comparison to other variables. Surely you don't believe that how much time a...
The above calculation hadn't been a part of the thread when I mentioned a "visual error," and so I wasn't referring to that, obviously. The...
What determines that is its relationship with winning, not its relationship with sacks.
You simply take a look at whether sacks are correlated with his YPA on a game-by-game basis, and they are not. In other words, when he's sacked...
Right, but the table alone isn't doing that for anyone, obviously, and the real relationships that are obtained when the relevant math is actually...
Then again, the whole area of exploration isn't really meaningful, because quarterback performance, as measured by certain statistics, isn't...
What you're saying is still a better argument for the percentage of sacks, rather than the sheer number. 25 sacks out of 100 pass attempts (25%)...
The question is whether that happened any more often for him than it did for other QBs. Obviously when we watch this team with a great deal of an...
Why would that be more explanatory than the percentage of times the QB is sacked per pass attempt? The sheer number of sacks would be a worse...
That would be easy enough to investigate objectively. Just take a look at whether the variation in performance, from year to year, among those...
For teams, the correlation between sack percentage (sacks per pass attempt) and QB rating in 2014 was -0.43. The correlation between sacks and...
This is what the guy said, however: There is nothing in the table that tells anyone (myself included) what would happen "if we remove half [of]...
Well the stats certainly shouldn't tell you that, since the passing stats in the original post are comprised only of plays in which passes are...
Cassel actually had a better year two years later in Kansas City.
As I said in the thread I linked to earlier here, the only way that should theoretically be the case is if the DT offers a big improvement in both...
And that would likely be true as long as the passing game is efficient. Winning across the league is far more a function of YPA than it is the...
This is where you could get some good mileage out of quarterbacks' WPA in the playoffs. Notice that Matt Ryan's contribution to the Falcons this...
Actually I'm quite comfortable saying that neither you nor I know that, and that my conclusion about Wallace's ineptitude in a timing-based...
And what do you know of how that differed, if at all, from Pittsburgh in 2012, when Roethlisberger threw him an even smaller percentage of...
Yes. That statistic is the percentage of catchable downfield balls the QB threw to the receiver. Tannehill's percentage to Wallace in 2014 was...
Win probability added is a better measure. Take a look here and see what Aaron Rodgers did in his game against the Dolphins in 2014:...
Simply take a look at Brady's playoffs WPA per game this past year, when arguably his only offensive weapon was Rob Gronkowski:...
And the Hall of Fame voters will agree, when he no doubt enters in his first year eligible.
The difference with Mike Wallace is that the very year prior (2012), he had the same problems in the same kind of system (a timing-based pass...
http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?85275-Is-N-Suh-Worth-the-Money-An-NFL-Analytics-Perspective
True, and it's still worth more than the subjective perception, about that particular issue, of a nobody (including myself) on a message board in...
Stills was targeted the second-most times per snap on his team, and so was Wallace.
I'm not sure what you're looking for.
You would simply determine how discrepant Brees's performance was from Tannehill's, and then determine whether that discrepancy is bigger or...
You're right to believe that yards per carry, alone, isn't sufficient to capture that part of the game. However, there are statistics that...
It would be relatively easy to determine statistically the degree to which the difference in performance between Stills and Wallace is explained...
Given that other variables can drive the bus on their performance, the correlation between sacks and wins would be the best measure of that...
...or until we simply measure it statistically at that point.
The Dolphins were sacked 10th most in the league as a team, and again, not significantly different from the league average. The percentage of...
If I present a statistic that supports your belief (bolded above), what will that mean to you? Will you then find your belief to be "confirmed,"...
Right, but absent some sort of attempt at an objective analysis, nobody here knows with any certainty when that is and is not happening, and if it...
I don't know that, and neither do you.
And the numbers I mentioned were simply the projection of what he would've done at his rate of production in New Orleans, had he been targeted the...