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Depends on what exactly happens and what seems to be the problem that needs fixing. There’s no single answer. But if it ends like this year with...
Sad to hear that, but understand. Maybe you'll change your mind if we become a true contender. Much of the negativity should naturally go away....
I know. My entire argument is that you should use stats in making predictions (perhaps with other sources of information) because with large...
Whether it's a favorite or not definitely matters. It changes the probability of the outcome. Being able to predict which underdogs win for a...
Yes, but your predictions were always for the favorite except the Tennessee and first Jets game — you got one of those right and one wrong — and...
That intuition is correct. The Nick Foles part is correct. I was just arguing the use of Moneyball over fewer games.
Intuition is actually wrong there. Let's say you have a system that wins you 10 out of every 16 games (using 16 so we can multiply by 10 to get...
It's certainly important to demonstrate that statistics are applicable in given situation, I'll agree with that. What each fan cares about is up...
That's questioning which model is the best predictor, not whether comparing predictions to actual data is useful. resnor is saying we shouldn't...
No it's not. By demonstrating you have a more accurate model — increasing the predictive accuracy of models — you increase win% by using that same...
Why try to predict? To increase win%!!! Coaches need to win to keep their jobs. That's why analytics is making serious inroads. Also, if everyone...
The goal in sports is to win! Of course it matters what best predicts win%. Why would it not matter? Comparing model predictions to actual data is...
Practically everyone wanted Brees, so it's not hindsight. Even on draft day it was a total shocker for so many we didn't pick him. Also, the...
lol.. not every game is do or die. The probability of making the playoffs changes in very different ways whether you win a game early in the...
Tannehill would have been a dud no matter how long he sat. The guy never could carry a team when the rest of the team performed poorly. At least...
I think free agency is the primary reason for the "instant gratification" part. Before 1993 it wasn't easy to get players from other teams, at...
The rule changes, specifically those starting from 1978 and continuing to the present day, have made the passing game far more important than it...
Yeah, and while we're on the subject I do think Jackson and Allen are different. Jackson is just a consistent choker you can't win the SB with....
Several things: 1. Tua definitely has a problem under pressure. No question. However, it's not something you can just categorically say is "not...
Sorry. Lamar Jackson is a consistent choker in the playoffs. No way around it. His playoff ratings: 78.8, 63.2, 74.8, 61.5, 121.8, and 75.5....
Tuanigamanuolepola > Lamar 18 > 5 Ow3Nd!
But Lamar repeatedly chokes in the playoffs. It's totally hypocritical to complain about Tua choking in "big games" then ignore the much larger...
He needs 14 wins to match Shula and 15 to beat him, overall of course. Belichick does have the most postseason wins. Point is: Belichick will...
And before him Cam Newton. All hype and never delivered. These are really good examples of where it pays to look at stats because these QBs were...
He choked. He was missing lots of easy throws. No excuses. However, it's only one playoff game. I'd only condemn him if this becomes a pattern.
It doesn't matter what Lamar Jackson can do or how dangerous he is in some situations. We have lots of data on what the outcome is with Jackson...
That was SOOOO beautiful. I'm in Baltimore and kept hearing all this stuff about how they're winning the SB while the Dolphins aren't in the...
Yeah, once adjusted for era, you will find no "great" QB that has stats like Josh Allen. He's slightly above average as a passer and dangerous as...
He makes great plays, but he also chokes too much. Not the right QB for winning a SB.
Yeah he's happy to see the Dolphins lose if it's because Tua played bad. Can't respect that at all on a Dolphins message board.
Yet you think Jackson is great. That guy laid an egg many many times in the playoffs until last week where he finally played well, for one game at...
Doesn't matter. Allen often chokes in big games. Allen has been on a team that has had one of the best defenses and offenses year after year, and...
Oh I agree. I didn't say he was an elite QB, just that his sustained production is elite. Those are two different stats: sustained elite...
Sorry but until Buffalo wins a SB they haven't done squat either. If I were a Buffalo fan I'd be very disappointed with the repeated early exits...
Before you start using the Bills as some kind of template, let's note that they have yet to win a SB in the entire existence of their franchise....
Tua came in #1 last year. Pretty hard to repeat that. So sure he's down from last year but he still ended up #5 in passer rating, with a 101.1...
Like I said.. all that should have happened after last year. Our offense statistically was better this year than last. So no, the evidence...
Saying we have to evolve past this ignores how hard it is to improve on what we have. It's quite realistic that it might take another 10-20 years...
Give McD some credit. Those rehearsed celebrations mostly ended after the Titans game. Of course that's easier to do than implementing an all...
Personally, I don't think Tua will ever be good at sitting in the pocket and seeing the field. I think you have to keep up this quick release...
Statistically he was #1 last year and #5 this year, i.e., elite. The problem with Tua is how he plays in big games, not whether he can play at an...
However, making the playoffs two years in a row is 19% probability. So McD is in the top 1/5th from that perspective.
Yeah you answered your own question. The purpose of all those stats is to win the SB. So progress for us means getting one step closer to the SB...
No, you have to demonstrate progress. The only acceptable measure of progress given 2 straight seasons of playoff appearances is a playoff win....
Not Herbert. He also choked in the playoffs and tends to disappear in big games. Tua > Herbert thus far based on how good an offense you can build...
Yeah #1 and #2 offenses (Dallas ended #1) vastly underperforming historical averages in the playoffs. Funny year. I know lots of Dallas fans, and...
Yeah it's like the massive improvement you saw when Peyton Manning switched teams. I'm so glad Belichick kept coaching after Brady left because...
Brady was the primary factor. Nothing else explains the sudden collapse from 12-4 to 7-9 in addition to Brady winning the SB with Tampa the very...
Give me an explanation for the sudden collapse after Brady left. Cheating isn't going to do it because there's no reason for Belichick to suddenly...
So I'll ask again: he lost the ability to cheat once Brady left? Look, whatever the effect of cheating that must have still been there after...
The alternative view is we really aren't that far away from playoff success. Imagine we don't have that epic collapse against Tennessee. Just that...
Two different groups of posters. I was out on Tannehill by 2014. The stats didn't look right. I'm pro Tua because the stats still look right. He's...
Tua was missing a bunch of passes yesterday that he regularly makes, and some were fairly easy ones. That's the effect of stress on a person who...
lol.. so Belichick magically lost the ability to cheat after Brady? The cheating Belichick was penalized for doesn’t come close to accounting for...
To think no mental processing is necessary to throw the ball accurately when multiple players are in motion and not yet at the spot you’re going...
This is ridiculous. Have you seen the countless times Tua throws the ball right between defenders or just outside the reach of one? The touch on...
Something saving the stats argument a bit is that we ended up #2 in offense after our Buffalo debacle. Dallas ended #1. There’s actually a huge...
They played fantastic against Buffalo, so yes it’s possible. Defense lost us other games though.
Most QB’s can’t do that accurately, and it’s the primary skill set of Tua that enabled a top offense. So while it’s nothing in the league of...
Yeah, defense cost us some games no question. But it was the offense that cost us the division and playoff wins. So yes Vic needs to do better,...
No one compares to Manning. But acting like elite decision making isn’t a thing like StaleTacos suggested is just ludicrous.
It's the HC's responsibility to get the culture right, so however much of it is due to Hill is no excuse. McD has to fix it. At what point is...
It's the culture. The coach. McD has created a culture where it's supposed to be fun to play football. I think that really helped Tua gain...
Of course it is. Peyton Manning wasn't a physical specimen, but he had elite decision making to a degree almost no QB had. He was like an OC on...
I mean specifically the accuracy with quick release. There's generally a speed-accuracy trade-off in almost everything you do. At least when it...
He performed very well despite his physical limitations throughout much of the last 2 seasons. And yes you can tell when someone has the fire to...
Yeah because he has elite decision-making + accuracy assuming it's not a high enough pressure situation. We have 2 seasons of data with a large...
Like I said it's a mental issue. So many of those passes he missed today were passes he often completed throughout the regular season. Scheme is...
Let's remember the claim I was arguing against by StaleTacos: "highly unlikely Tua stays healthy another full season". Sorry, but that is not...
There's nothing that happened this year that suggests health is a concern. And that's with a bad OL. Yes, he demonstrated conclusively he can play...
He doesn't get tested because he's still very good. He made a lot of good plays for us. No you absolutely keep him.
Based on what? Tua conclusively showed health is no longer the concern. Right now the major concern is showing up in big games, not health.
Ramsey? He is very good.
Have to stay with the current core for at least one more year. This team clearly showed it is good enough to beat most teams in the NFL, but it's...
McD needs to do several things: 1. Have a plan B and C ready anticipating how a defense could adjust in-game. It's a lack of experience he...
Yup.. the mental fortitude necessary to win when it counts is much harder to teach. Not impossible, but harder to fix than what we faced last...
Yeah this season ended in a failure. It's actually good we got to see how Tua and McD play in the playoffs because that shows where we're...
Well.. total end-season collapse, like previous Dolphins teams. In that sense, no improvement. The issue isn't talent either. What the defense did...
Welcome to the board. It's the last chance this year for Tua and McD to redeem themselves. Still can't believe the NFL put this on Peacock. NBC...
Well.. yesterday was a nightmare lol.
It felt like a Bills home game for TV viewers too! That announcer was totally a Bills (or should I say Josh Allen) fan. It was excessive. A little...
lol the fortunes of no NFL team depends on you, rest easy. Also, Philly won the SB not too long ago so there's that.
If there is a silver lining to Tua's non-clutch performance it's that he can't command the same salary as he would have. Might as well see...
tbh that character building should have happened after the gashing we received in Baltimore. The play calling today by McD is what really upsets...
Yeah they're not that good this year. But as I pointed out earlier.. they're forecasting temps in single digits. That is BAD NEWS for the passing...
That's an overreaction. Have to see if they can learn from this. If they can't, then I agree. But you have to give people time to learn and...
KC hasn't played well.. but damn the biggest issue is going to be the weather. They're forecasting SINGLE DIGIT temps in KC next week. VERY hard...
Defense played great today. Don't blame them. 14 points allowed with 3 turnovers and a clutch stop on 4th down to give the putrid offense a chance...
Not taking the bet but I agree the team is letting its fans down big time. I'll still watch and root against KC.
CRAP!!! McD and Tua simply not mentally tough enough in clutch situations. That and stupid ST. However.. shout out to the defense. 3 turnovers...
Never argued differently. I took exception to you saying the eye ball test is more telling in that game than stats. Stats clearly support the idea...
I think the main value of this season prior to the Bills game is it's answered a bunch of key questions: 1. Tua is a franchise QB 2. McDaniel is...
Remember the context here is the claim "it's all injuries/backups" or "it's primarily injuries/backups" whether you believe that or not. So IF you...
Yeah that's a better example, at least for the Browns defense. Both don't have their starting QBs but the Browns are resting key players on...
lol.. I’ve been wrong before and have pointed it out when it happens. But given the argument I’ve consistently made in this debate, clearly that...
Yeah but I explicitly made an exception with QBs and the defense only gave up 17 so if anything that supports what I said.
A note on this comment. While I agree that the mental component is very important (if for no other reason than how you respond to stress matters...
Lots of good questions. Some I can answer, some I can try to answer. If you're willing to use a stat like passer rating to quantify QB...
lol. That is NOT a good idea. We spent decades trying to find a franchise QB. We have one now and you want to gamble again? Don't forget how much...
Fun fact about Josh Allen. He generally hasn't played that well this year against average or bad defenses lol. Buffalo's 6 losses came to:...
So glad we took Tua over Herbert! However, Tua isn't yet an All-Pro. He was selected to the Pro Bowl, which is pretty good, but it's not All-Pro....
What's your point? I think the injury stats I'm making people aware of are quite unfamiliar to them. As I said right at the outset when this...
You guys should be more positive. Statistically the #1 offense the last 14 years has made the playoffs (so with us it's 15 consecutive), with the...
lol Xavien Howard suffered his injury on the first pass play with the Ravens. We have NO data on how good or bad this defense would have been with...
Sorry resnor your intuition is wrong and that example proves it. Everyone can see that based on your post. That you can’t admit it and instead try...
Yeah I have no issue with people saying injuries have an effect, even specific to certain drives, i.e., timing. But the evidence is pretty strong...
Your intuition is wrong. Let's take that 70-20 drubbing by the Dolphins over Denver. According to your intuition, this would have only been...
We all saw the game. And many neutral observers will disagree with you. So you have an opinion, nothing else. It has no more credibility than the...
Right, and one can come up with tons of other possible explanations for what happened. You think most observers of that game would blame injuries?...
No, I'm saying giving up 33 more points than average for the team is a meteorite if you think most of that was due to injury. Want to explain a...
Stats tell you the probability of events occurring. That 5% variation takes all game situations during a decade of NFL play into account. For...
Number of starters. btw.. here are the injuries the Dolphins have had by week (but not in-game):...
lol.. you would have NEVER predicted what happened. Of course you were extremely surprised by how the game transpired. Don't act otherwise. But...
Yeah this team has its core. Need to address some weaknesses of course, but we're definitely on the right track. I just hope this season doesn't...
You completely ignored my post (the original one). Read it before responding. I pointed out the first 2 drives on offense were fantastic (except...
Yeah when I was younger, but not at any high level. What does that have to do with anything? There are many people who play sports at the highest...
Yup. The question is "What are we?" We'll find out Sunday.
It's important to remember what the current goalposts are with hitman8 lest he change them again:...
That's not really answering the question because we played fantastic the first two drives. Hill was fine. He wasn't showing signs of injury during...
Yeah, and they lost to Cleveland earlier in the season too. But there's a good chance a whole bunch of other teams would cause Jackson trouble:...
Ravens have many times looked strong in the regular season only for Jackson to crap in the playoffs. They have as much proving to do as we do when...
Something in that range. Home field advantage in recent years is a bit wacky. A lot less than historically, except for 2022. But yes that's...
But at what point is that? It's very interesting that it's very difficult to predict outcomes using injuries, except at QB. We're a -3 underdog...
Preseason futures odds for the Dolphins was 9.5 wins and slightly under 50% chance to make the playoffs. So I agree that compared to preseason...
The offense not having a plan B is one of McD's weaknesses. He generally does not have a plan B. He goes in with one plan and then tries to...
OK.. answer a few questions: 1. Our offense performed flawlessly the first 2 drives except for Hill not catching an easy-to-catch perfectly...
Exactly why saying we lost due to injuries is totally ridiculous. Our offense, despite injuries, had fantastic first 2 drives (except for Hill not...
Look at Vegas odds, not what some commentator says. Vegas odds for MVP are: https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/ -6000 to -20000 Lamar...
Howard isn't responsible for giving up 33 extra points on defense than what we on average give up.
Yes, I'll grant you Baker and Howard, not Holland though — he played. Either way, that's not responsible for 33 extra points allowed from our...
What's ridiculous about it? From the opening snap our defense couldn't stop the Ravens. Jackson had a perfect passer rating with 5 TDs no INTs. A...
It's unlikely we win the SB (it's unlikely for all teams actually), but there have been championship teams that limped into the playoffs....
We didn't lose because of injuries. Fangio had no answer for the Ravens offense regardless of who you put in there.
Exactly. No excuses. Championship teams overcome adversity when necessary, and the Dolphins need to finally demonstrate they can do this when it...
Yeah but Buffalo looked a lot stronger last year too. They were limping today. We're not the only ones looking bad right before season's end.
We have to win the division or win a playoff game for the claim "we improved" to be defensible, and I think we need to do both for it to be a...
Several things: 1. The point at which injuries become "too much" is usually well beyond what most fans think. It's really interesting that it's...
Yeah I've noticed some coaches need some "coaching" on how to interpret those 4th down stats. When the stats say go for it on 4th down it makes...
Yup. Still no excuses as long as Tua can play. Have to find ways to overcome. And btw that usually means coaching. Look at the lack of ability to...
I don't trust this team away from home. We could get 2 home playoff games with the #2 seed. Yes we want to win. Also important mentally. If we...
Our pass rush was never that effective against Allen. Key thing is to keep Allen in the pocket. If our coaches game plan this well we'll win. I...
Yeah I do.
Well that was just embarrassing. I made a bunch of posts earlier in this thread emphasizing there were no excuses for losing, and that winning or...
I just hope the refs don't screw us. What they did to the Lions is just insane. That (totally unjustified) call against the Lions had so much...
Yeah I've been saying the same thing since I've been on this board. Statistically, SB winning QBs are at around 1 standard deviation above the...
If we beat Baltimore, Tua plays well and Jackson doesn't, Tua will probably be at the top of the MVP voting list. Who leads MVP odds has been...
You won't find many SB teams that ended with a late season collapse. We lose out we're likely not making the SB (statistically). Like I said we've...
We beat the Cowboys with all those injuries so we're clearly not at such a disadvantage that we can't beat very good teams. And it's not like we...
Yeah I disagree. If we lose the next 2 it means they don't have the right mentality to overcome difficulties. You can get healthy afterwards and...
Hope he continues to not post. Board is better that way. Also means Tua and the Dolphins are doing real well.
Yeah, but Flores wouldn't have solved the "offense" part of the SB winner equation. He didn't know what to do with Tua, and his offenses ranked...
Statistically Flores wasn't a keeper though. He had 2 winning seasons in his first 3 years, but in point differential (the stat with the highest...
Dolphins have the 3rd best odds to win the SB right now. When's the last time that happened? SF, Ravens, Dolphins in that order. If we beat the...
Yeah he won't ever admit it, but his posting style is very clear: root for Tua to fail, and thus the Dolphins to fail — just so he can be right...
He's having a terrible game, but overall for the year he's the #1 QB in key efficiency stats. Jury is still out on him, but if he keeping playing...
The guy who said "Go wear your tua jersey and dance pantsless in front of a mirror" was canez06, a hardcore anti-Tua poster who hasn't posted much...
That Chiefs loss is really important because they could have won out and challenged for the #1 seed had we beaten Baltimore but lost to Buffalo....
You’ve moved goalposts more than anyone. Every one of the ones I listed is something you said he had to demonstrate, and he did. Yet no major...
Could've fooled me. You post with glee when Tua fails in some way or another, but rarely post when Tua does something really good (a meek "he...
He's definitely rooting against Tua. Of course Tua is our QB so that's like rooting against the Dolphins.
Next goalposts are: 1) win a playoff game, 2) win the SB, and 3) win with a strong arm. Let's see how far we get. I fear Tua will fail at #3.
Yeah the "elite" QBs of the new generation are Mahomes, Burrow, Tua and possibly Purdy if he can keep this up (let's see him do it another year...
So a perfect predictor thus far for whether the Dolphins win the game is whether we're leading at halftime. Every time we lead at halftime we win,...
I doubt he's going in the right direction. He's been adamant Tua is no better than Mac Jones even recently. You think someone as stubborn as...
lol.. just admit you were completely wrong about Tua for once. Like wrong about almost everything! And Tua IS elite over the last 2 years — this...
Fat chance you’ll get many apologies, much less loud ones. Some of those posters are actively rooting for Tua and the Dolphins to fail. Very happy...
Fantastic game! This game showed this team is a playoff team, not just because they clinched the playoffs, but because they won a game that is...
Champions find ways to overcome. There are no excuses, especially given that oddsmakers think this is an even matchup. If they have the right...
Have to add the qualifier: "when humans specify parameters in the model". The most complex models are machine learning models with no bias in the...
Bad context is worse than no context. ESPN's QBR is bad context. Stick with transparent stats that have high correlation to win%. Also, anyone...
He's #2 in passer rating. QBR is ESPN's sorry attempt to try to "account for context" by creating a black box method with 10,000 lines of code...
Because they're not really fans of the team. You can see the complete lack of joy among some here when we win. Maybe they'd be fans if we hadn't...
I know enough Dallas fans to be able to tell you many are like that when talking about Dak Prescott. For years many of them have been adamant he...
Eventually they'll get that right too. Success in numbers will do it. Just keep spending mid round picks and the occasional high round pick on OL...
I was happy when my parents divorced lol. They constantly fought. And yes I'm sure Gisele thought it was serious. Doesn't mean she and her kids...
Probably true, but that's not what we're talking about here. Nothing serious happened to Brady's family as far as I can tell, and certainly not...
He "didn't need to" play football is seeing things from your perspective. If your goal is to be the greatest player ever, what he did is exactly...
Fangio and Chubb go together like McDaniel and Tua. Fantastic moves by Grier. We’ll need this kind of defensive play in the playoffs.
Greatness often requires huge amounts of sacrifice, and also prioritizing what you want to be great at over everything else. So for me Brady’s...
No I don't know of a site that lists air yards for individual plays. You're right that Tua has 7 TDs over 40 yards, but not sure what the air...
It does however show you were wrong when saying Tua's WRs keep having to constantly stop and wait for the ball when Tua throws deep. Tua has now...
I know you don't want to start another RT conversation, but you're equating RT and Tua too much for me to let this go. RT would likely perform...
a 14th straight season without a playoff appearance.
No. Blaming Tannehill's failures on everyone else is like crediting Tua's success on everyone else. With large sample size it IS the player we're...
Your arm strength argument is a set up because you're not acknowledging that it's irrelevant in Tua's case. Tua's production is elite despite...
With Herbert out it's nearly impossible. What I don't understand is why the opening line of +14 for the Chargers is now +11. The slightly more...
Tannehill was never the right QB. You want two things in a QB: sustained elite production, and the ability to carry the team when the rest of the...
#1 seed is clearly better. Week off, home field advantage through the playoffs, and you've basically "won" a playoff game for free. I think this...
Just pointing out that you're not really arguing arm strength in isolation. It's a set up towards the larger goal of taking away credit from Tua....
Ahh! The truth comes out. Your evaluation of Tua, even after 2 straight years of elite play and him repeatedly proving your predictions wrong, is...
Yes you did. You've been arguing he's no better than Mac Jones who is a below average QB. Here's even a quote where you explicitly used the word...
hitman8, the problem is that you have a long history of harping on Tua's lack of arm strength to claim he's just a mediocre QB. You need to come...
I'm actually going to be in Dallas over Christmas so I'll be antagonizing a bunch of Dallas fans throughout the game! Never really had a beef with...
Offense scored 20. One TD was a pick 6 by the defense. Furthermore, the defense through a fumble recovery put the offense on the Tennessee 12 yard...
Not sure Wilson is better than Siemian. Wilson has a career 73.2 rating after 993 passing attempts while Siemian has a career 79.6 rating after...
Same thing fans of the Chiefs, Jaguars, Ravens, Eagles, Lions and of course Cowboys are saying. The Jets win is a reason to feel good about this...
With the Jets loss to Miami, they now own the longest active postseason drought in all major North American sports leagues: 13 seasons! Keep it up...
You can get burned in MMA. St. Pierre losing to Serra, Anderson Silva losing twice to Weidman (including a broken leg), list goes on with some...
NFL, MMA and MLB for me. But I have this rule of never betting using Vegas odds. I wait until someone emotionally invested enough is willing to...
Hopefully I'm pointing out the obvious, but how you bet has no influence on the Dolphins record. I'd focus on just making money when betting and...
He already is. He's clearly a "franchise QB", as in there's no uncertainty he should be given a long term contract. He's shown elite production 2...
On a slightly different note, Cowboys scoring only 10 points and us getting a shutout has made us the #1 offense by points again, and now the #14...
Yup, and add the GM to that too. It's important that the GM and HC are on the same page and not trying to build different types of teams. Grier...
Health was the ONLY legitimate concern other than demonstrating his high level play wasn't a one year fluke. Tua has passed with flying colors....
Yeah it's important to note three more goalposts that now have to be moved (running out of places to move the goalposts!) 1. Tua can't play well...
It's actually good Dallas flopped today. It shows they really are terrible away from home. Dallas has won all their home games but are 3-4 away,...
That's only true if the Ravens lose tonight. If the Ravens win, then we need to win out to get the #1 seed.
You mean they benched Tua again???
The win may not be surprising, but how we won is. In particular, Tua had a great day without Hill and put up a 119.4 rating against the 4th best...
You said "don't give me hope for the playoffs". And I told you that's fine, don't have hope, but I (and others will). This game proves there is...
Belichick and Brady did that best. Killer instinct and mechanical play till the end. Never become complacent — good lesson in life too.
They did a hitman job on the Jets lol.
Or of no team in particular.
You should watch it on replay. It's the first game I remember in long time where we were just dominant on both offense and defense. This defense...
It's so obvious there are some posters here rooting AGAINST this team. Man.. what a board lol.
He's changed the narrative already. This December Tua's ratings are: 141.0, 90.5, 119.4. Tua is proving to be a very good December QB.
We found out this team learned from the Titans disaster. McD is utilizing the run game more in short yardage situations, and they didn't act like...
Well.. great job all around by the Dolphins. 10-4 now. Chubb was MVP today on a defense that got its first shutout, Tua stepped up and played real...
At least Tua isn't injured and we have a chance for a run at the postseason. Contrast that with being a Jets, Chargers, Browns, Bengals or Vikings...
I think it's more than just player health. The mentality of this team needs to change. The Titans game is maybe the first time this feeling of "we...
You're the one viewing this in a vacuum. I'm saying it's just an anomaly that doesn't mean much. But so be it. Don't have hope for the playoffs...
You said you didn't understand the mindset of "it's just one loss". Because it's (so far) an anomaly, it's "just one loss". The severity of the...
Because it's an anomaly. Despite that loss we're still #2 in points scored per game. We beat every team with a losing record up until Tennessee....
Zach Wilson I think now deserves to be listed as one of the great QB busts of all time. Don't forget this guy was picked 2nd overall. He's not...
That's OK. We can still win, and those injuries aren't for the rest of the season. If Tua was out we're done.
Lots of injuries, but it's still no excuse. Have to win this one. Also cool Tua isn't injured. That monkey is off our back.
Great.. so you're calling me a leech, and without provocation. From a guy who contributes essentially nothing to this board. I've made a lot of...
Ravens winning or losing affects the Dolphins chances of a #1 seed, so it's related to the AFC East.
C'mon man.. after all the incorrect predictions you made about Tua you're going to act like you're somehow good at making predictions?? Based on...
Given where we are now it would be a disaster (still #2 seed). It means McD can't adjust. Based on yesterday alone I'm not worried. Crap happens....
Not stopping with the seeding talk. A bunch of other "top" teams just crapped the bed too. We're in the same boat. Doesn't mean this is how things...
Absolute crap performance. Arguably the worst loss by McDaniel. I really hope this teaches the Dolphins a much needed lesson for the playoffs....
Yeah the expectation some posters have that we're going to fail like in previous decades is totally unwarranted. It's one thing if you have...
3 sacks for 24 yards. Make sure to include each sack as a pass attempt. That's what they do for NY/A which has a higher correlation to win% than...
I think you keep it as completions per pass attempt. Better not to include rushing attempts in completion percentage, otherwise like you said it...
In principle there's no difference between rushing for 5 yards and passing for 5 yards. It's still 5 yards. So one could calculate Yards/Attempt...
NFC playoff seeds are so wacky this year. #1 and #2 seeds are 10-3, #3 seed is (Detroit) 9-4, #4 seed is 6-7!!!, and #5 seed is 10-3 LOL. The NFC...
Well we're perfect at home so far. I don't think that's just a coincidence. Home field advantage is real, partly due to ref bias, familiarity with...
I think the great thing about the AFC is there are no teams clearly better than us. Our biggest weakness is playing away from home in cold,...
I have confidence they'll lose 1-2 more. They've been losing a lot of games they shouldn't have lost. Big question for the Bills is whether they...
I think you're right. KC losing today made that possible because it's just head-to-head with the Ravens. Oh.. and I think now we're all on the...
Bills win!!! We can lose a game and still not have to worry about KC. Have to hope the Ravens lose another, against Jags, SF or Pitt so that we...
Sorry.. this team is totally different. Different players, different coach, vastly improved performance. Past does NOT apply here.
Why do you think what happened 5-10 years ago has any relevance today when practically every player on the team is different and the evidence is...
There have been no 0-0 games in the SB era, so I was hoping this would be the first one lol.
All games this week have gone our way thus far except the Ravens. Houston, Indy and Jags lose + Pitt losing earlier. So we're 4 out of 5. Problem...
Wow.. Bills are +1.5 against KC and Cleveland is favored -2.5 against Jags. Not sure if Rams can beat the Ravens (Rams are +7.5 underdogs), but we...
Too many differences between this team and last 20 years. - This is now the 4th consecutive year with a winning record. Last time was 2003 - This...
We didn't get to the SB in large part because our defense played like crap in the AFC championship game. They gave up 31 points, 255 yards rushing...
We're going to play more than 5 more games this season. We're making the playoffs! And if things work out right.. another 8 more games (or 9 more...
I don't remember that game, but I remember that era. Biggest problem for 25 years since Marino retired was finding a true franchise QB. We have...
Yeah I know. I was also thinking about the 10 worst Monday night games for the Dolphins.. clear #1 there is that Monday Night Miracle where the...
This game was historic. It's the only thing keeping the '72 Dolphins as arguably the greatest team ever, and of course the only undefeated team in...
It shows NE isn't dead yet, which is good for us. They play KC, Denver and Bills next. Might as well have slightly more credible competition than...
There are a bunch with Brad Pitt.. actually one shows him side by side with Benicio Del Toro with the caption: "Benicio Del Toro is just Brad Pitt...
lol.. there has to be something better than that.
We really should convert to the metric system while we're on the subject. Except for American football of course.
On a somewhat related note, I love how Tua is proving to be more durable this season than so many QBs that are out for the season due to injury: -...
7 TDs + 2 FGs = 55 points.
Looks like Tennessee is ranked 7th in 1st half points allowed (9.4) but ranked 22nd in 2nd half points allowed (11.3), so this hypothesis doesn't...
Back then Tennessee was the best team in the AFC, this year they're the 2nd worst. We're not only going 10-3 we're going 11-3. The big question...
That's due to us so often having a large lead. The primary difference in rushing stats between winning and losing teams is in the 4th quarter, so...
Spread is now at -13.5. Together with a 47 total points that's predicting a 30-17 or 31-17 final outcome, which is realistic (those are very...
Worth looking at the playoff picture from the Bills side, not our side. Basically, they need to win out and we need to go 2-3. If they don't win...
That may be true for a WC opponent, but it's not true if we have to travel to KC or Baltimore to win over there in the winter, with the inevitable...
Three reasons to root for the Bills: 1. The #1 seed is super important: you play one less playoff game and it's home field advantage rest of the...
It's actually realistic to get that #1 seed even losing one game as long as we beat the Ravens. KC losing another isn't out of the question...
Still good that we don't need help anymore to get that #1 seed. All the necessary losses — one loss by KC and one by Jags — just happened. So...
Jags lose! It's just us vs. Ravens for the #1 seed. lol.. even luck is on our side.
No it's not. Like I said earlier it's 90.9. You have 79 completions out of 140 attempts for 1,264 yards with 8 TDs and 5 INT's. That's 90.9.
Should probably add one more thing: there are so many "comfortable" wins this season. So much less anxiety about whether the team can overcome...
I actually don't think they'll make it. First, aside from the 4 division champs only 3 others make it and there are four 7-5 teams right now, all...
That's best season by receiving yards. By TDs it's 2020 where he had 15 TDs. Either way, Hill is on track to beat both receiving yards and TD...
Not sure if danmarino has you now on ignore, but you said "They've had the weakest schedule in football". That's what he responded to. Let's not...
That argument doesn't really work because of the constant goalpost moving. Tua has repeatedly "shown him" he can do things that he said he...
It's not THE way, especially because small sample size is so important one could actually argue one should dismiss every stat from a single game,...
Yeah, and Jets are giving up 78.6 rating to QBs this year, so Tua played average against the Jets. He just "struggled" relative to his otherwise...
Yeah Giants are #31 in points per game. To emphasize how bad their offense is, outside of 2 games where they scored 31 points, in the other 10...
He had a 77.5 rating. I think it's fine to say he "struggled" given that. Doesn't change the massive goalpost moving by StaleTacos over time....
I agree. Dolphins are 9-3, seem to have found a true franchise QB, and we have posters doing the utmost possible to find negatives about the...
To be clear.. while that year 4 statistical threshold is still in the future, it's looking real bad for Lawrence right now from a purely...
It's even more entertaining seeing people willing to defend him despite his obvious agenda of trying to find anything bad to say about Tua, even...
I think it's a near impossibility for us to not win the division regardless of what the Bills do. We would have to go 2-3 at best in our last 5...
I'm getting 90.9 combined rating for last 2 Decembers. But that's going to increase substantially over the rest of this season. And yes,...
Nowhere near yet. First three years his ratings are 71.9, 95.2 and 92.0. For reference, league average last 3 years is 90.8, 89.1, 88.7. He's...
KC lost!!! AWESOME!!! Can you imagine? Dolphins #1 seed?? Getting more realistic by the day!
GB now leading by 8 with 1:09 left, KC no timeouts!!
Just noticed that all the Jaguars losses are at HOME. Like, when's the last time you saw that? 8-3 with 3 home losses. They play Bengals and...
Yeah if KC loses today, the only impediment to us getting the #1 seed is Jacksonville. They lose one game and we win out the #1 seed is ours. GB...
Formula is simple: we win out + one KC loss + one Jacksonville loss and we're the #1 seed. No other conditions necessary. Also note that...
Then we can rejoice and laugh at Belichick not matching Shula's win record despite his massive ego.
That's why theoretically the Chargers actually makes sense. There's no question Belichick is a very good defensive mind, which they need, and they...
lol.. yeah, notice he said "Tyreek is a monster" to take away credit from Tua who threw a perfect TD pass, the antithesis of a guy with a weak arm...
He won't retire. Guy has too much ego for that. There are already rumors of him going to other teams. Thing is, some of those teams — like...
And a horrible offensive one. Zero points against the Charger's 23rd ranked defense? lol. Belichick got SOOOOOOO lucky with Brady. The more he...
The other stat people should pay attention to with Hill is TDs. The two most highly correlated stats (over a career) for "great" WRs are volume...
A little Schadenfreude never hurts. Herbert with a no TD, 75 rating against NE (who are now 2-10.. **** that Belichick!) lol.
With 157 more receiving yards today Hill now has 1,481 total receiving yards with 5 games to go. To beat Johnson's 1,964 yards over 16 games Hill...
See why I said it's an unbalanced stat? Tua's first December game in 2023 is a 141 rating. With large enough sample size you'll see there's no...
It's garbage time. Our running game wasn't good today. Anyway, nice easy win. Not much to say, except we're on our way to 11-3. It's a new...
I think this talk about Rodgers returning is half serious because his contract was designed to make the Jets a SB winner THIS year. Jets gave...
AI (at least in its current stage) generally can't do calculations. So if you ask it who the 4th best QB was in 2021 by passer rating it will give...
That's a product of longevity more than anything else, which is why volume stats don't matter that much for QBs. The great ones tend to do better...
Such a biased statistic. Have to first see what December + January stats look like after this year. Basically you have 10 December + January games...
Yeah, any claims about Herbert not having a good surrounding cast are revisionist history. Prior to this season, a bunch of outlets were...
Once in the playoffs you're going to face teams that can beat you. Bills or no Bills that will be the same. So all else considered I think the...
I hate the Bills too, but the Dolphins' only high probability chance of a SB run is that 1st round bye. So I'll root for the Bills against KC.
Yeah.. and they're not done stumbling! However, I do hope they somehow pull off an upset against KC. It's the only realistic hope for us to get a...
You expressed that sentiment many times. Looks like a bit over 3 weeks ago you still had that view:...
Yeah I don't think it's rigged, but European soccer is a warning in that regard. Serie A, the top Italian league (one of the big 4 leagues in...
Glad to see you're slowly coming around. Your prediction of the Dolphins going 10-7 and losing the division to the Bills is extremely unlikely...
I used to bet on online sports betting sites, did well with MLB, came out more or less even with NFL. Then, after Jackson got people so fired up...
That defense has been top 3 every year Jackson made the playoffs: 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022. And he's been terrible in the playoffs playing with a...
The main thing Tua has over Herbert is that he's an integral component of one of the best offenses in the league. Herbert is now in year 4 of...
It's going to say a lot about your brother if he's wrong this year, and all he does is start a new conspiracy theory without realizing almost no...
We're second tier compared to the elite teams, namely Philly, KC and possibly 49ers. As long as we have home playoff games I'm confident this team...
We'll all be rooting for "great arm" Herbert when the Chargers host the Ravens. East coast teams going to West coast isn't easy. So maybe, just...
Great that KC lost. Marginally keeps our hopes for the #1 seed alive. More importantly, Philly plays Buffalo next (in Philly). If they beat...
Welcome to the list of posters who have "reading comprehension" issues.
Yeah.. it's worth going back to arguments he made in the past to get the proper "context". Remember he was high on Tua until last year where Tua...
Ouch! You left out the QB they all wanted: Justin "great arm almighty" Herbert!
It's because your "reading comprehension" is lacking! Not just yours, but mine, FinFaninBuffalo's, dj's lol. Hilarious. Not being able to...
Go to this link: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm Scroll down to "Passing Defense" (3rd table), and just sort by "Rate".
We beat the Raiders.
I see. In the SB era, the average correlation between passer rating allowed and win% is -0.59, while it's -0.18 for passing yards allowed. That...
Umm.. I just linked to you the passer rating allowed. Raiders are ranked 14th in passer rating allowed (what I'm calling passing defense because...
Raiders are currently ranked 14th, giving up an 87.5 rating on average: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm [ATTACH]
I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked...
I think it depends a lot on the QB. SBs have been won with good offenses having a poor OL so you can definitely do it — just think of Russell...
Rhetorical question? Obviously to hold onto a point of view not supported by the evidence. It's like all those "almost interceptions" we heard Tua...
That's just scary to think about. Behind either a top flight OL or top tier TE this offense is unstoppable even against good defenses. I also...
We saw our first glimpse of Tua without Hill yesterday, and it was close to perfect. Tua without Hill (rest of 1st half after Hill went out): 8...
We won the game. Probably would not have won the game had the offense not done respectably outside of those key turnovers. Again, the offense...
Doesn't matter if there's variance. It's a statement about what the person said in the past that is provably wrong. There's no ambiguity here so...
That's close to Vegas odds prior to today's game, which was between -1000 and -1250 for the Dolphins to make the playoffs. After today those odds...
He came in a record 6 times first in passer rating. Statistically, adjusted for era, he's the most efficient passer ever, since the 1978 rule...
Try to follow the argument. You're now (not in the past) saying Tua is playing elite with elite weapons. Good. What I want to know is whether...
Really impressed how you stick to your guns on that. I remember you wanted to bet real money in a game thread. I'd bet you real money on whether...
They're not. This is the official version: https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture 1. Chiefs 7-2 2. Ravens 8-3 3. Jaguars 7-3 4. Dolphins...
Purdy is now #1 today. Perfect rating of 158.3. lol 21 for 25 and 333 yards, 3 TDs no INTs. Guy is really doing well. Will be interesting to see...
Purdy was #1 since last week. His lead is now much greater after posting a perfect passer rating today (158.3). Purdy's season rating is 115.1...
There are some people who will never stop lying no matter the proof that they're lying. There are known conditions like that. Doesn't really...
Unbelievable. We have the actual quotes to prove you said "at best" an average QB, not once but many times, and you continue to lie. Why can't you...
Well.. it's not trivial to me when someone accuses me of systematically misrepresenting their views despite me being able to literally prove...
We scored 20 points against a defense that on average allowed 20.5 points per game prior to today. The offense wasn't "bad" per se, but it was bad...
I have no problems with people changing their opinion, just so that's clear. The problem is acting like you had that opinion all along. Why is...
Dude.. you didn't even read those links! I showed what he said was false. There's no if's and but's about it. And it's not the first time either....
Yeah, but not on 3rd and 1. And McD does it repeatedly. Just run it. We should be able to get 1 yard for freaking sake.
Thankfully we won't need a complete performance against the Jets to win, as they have no offense. But we really cannot afford those crucial...
Yeah McDaniel gets a bit too cute sometimes. It's a mistake he can easily correct. I'd like to see him learn on this one.
I know our offense didn't do well today, but here are a few nice stats: Tua without Hill (rest of 1st half after Hill went out): 8 out of 8 for...
I'm not talking about opinions. I'm talking about provably false statements like when resnor said: Provably false. Please review the discussion...
Ramsey is AWESOME!!! Great game! Love the fact the defense won it for us. 7-3!!
lol.. can YOU read? Answer the question. If Tua keeps putting up elite stats, can you admit that Tua himself is an elite QB and that it's not...
We're talking about provably false statements, not preferring a different flavor of ice cream. You don't "let it go" or those false statements...
Right.. so you're saying the credit goes mostly to others, just like I said. Think about this. He's got Hill and Waddle, that's basically it. He...
Let's not annoint him either. Or suggest he'd do as well as Tua in this offense.
That's because in their mind Tua is no better than an average-ish QB. From their point of view you could replace Tua with Mac Jones or Tannehill...
It's been a long time since I've used that word. You should direct that request to others.
Imagine you took this view with everything else. Let it go when people argue the Earth is flat, or anything else demonstrably wrong. The world...
Does everyone “know” he and others were wrong? No. Statements like Tua will doom this franchise, that Mac Jones would do as well as Tua (as well...
You can just ignore the posts in question. In any case, I don't like it when people are saying things like Tua will doom this franchise, that Mac...
He’s been given ample opportunity to come out and say that a very large percentage, maybe a majority, of the reason for Tua’s elite stats is due...
Have you ever asked yourself the question why it's only you that seems to be systematically "misunderstood"? No one else has this problem. And I...
Baltimore with Lamar Jackson is not a threat to go deep in the playoffs. That guy is one of the worst playoff QBs around, and it's important to...
Yeah very fortuitous. The only real threat to a true SB run now is KC. Ravens look great but Jackson is one of the worst playoff QBs out there. So...
Rodgers of course. Given how good the Jets defense has been that's as important as the Bills underperforming in helping us win the division.
Of course they've attacked us. Lots of violations of ToS from them. I mean Tua supporters' views were claimed to be worse than ISIS of all things...
lol.. Confucius died 2000 years before that date in 479 BCE. Actually exactly 2000 because -479 + 2000 = 1521.
Dallas has only beaten teams with losing records. The criticism with them is worse than with us. They beat the Giants (2-8) twice, Jets (4-5),...
Both Watson and Rodgers. HUGE bullets dodged.
I'm decent at math, but I have never paid attention to contract related stuff. Some others here do however. Maybe they can provide a good answer....
Yes thanks. I forgot we won the division in 2008. We did that btw with the 21st ranked scoring offense lol. Haven't had a top 10 offense since 2001.
Seriously. Some people forget how long we were in QB purgatory. 20+ years of constantly searching for a franchise QB. Now we have one (barring...
How will the Bills losing come back to bite us? If "everyone else" beats the Bills and we lose to the Bills, that basically means we win the...
As long as they beat each other up it doesn't really matter. Buffalo has such a hard schedule ahead of them I'm not worried, and the Jets won't...
Seriously, after that game.. who really thinks the Bills are a threat? They play the Jets, @Philly, @KC, Dallas, @Chargers, NE, and at Miami. And...
OMG! Buffalo lost!!! Best bye week ever! Bills, Jets, Jacksonville, Ravens, Bengals all lose. Buffalo is overrated! Path becomes clearer for...
Yeah read my previous post lol.
Yeah, lead the league in passer rating 2 years in a row. So far only 6 QBs did that. Only 2 QBs have ever done it 3 years in a row: Peyton and...
One thing that did change is Purdy is now #1 in passer rating after a 148.9 rating game. Purdy's now at 109.9 vs. Tua's 106.4. Will be a tight...
Yeah it's worth emphasizing: a TE like Kelce makes this offense almost impossible to defend, and a LB like Parsons makes our defense top 5. So one...
No one knows. It's based on EPA, but then has 10,000+ lines of proprietary code trying to account for all kinds of "context", including "clutch"...
I'm not disagreeing that it would be nice to have that. I'm saying it's unrealistic in one offseason. However, it's definitely true you can have a...
I don't think we need much more. The one thing we never had during the last 20+ years was a high powered passing game. The pass opens up the run,...
Yeah, this team is almost complete. Need TE, LB and OL and we're set. I think the first two Grier can maybe do something in FA. Then he can spend...
It's not just Cinci losing, Jacksonville lost and Ravens lost!!! This is a fantastic day so far. Oh, and nice to see Belichick lose another one lol.
What was really impressive though is how porous his OL was with a non-existent running game in some cases, and he still put up elite stats. But...
Yeah that's an interesting case. That's a case where a stats-based approach would have gotten it wrong. Yes, we need larger sample size with his...
Belichick benched Mac Jones and played Zappe for the potential game-winning drive in the last 2 minutes of the game lol. Mac Jones is one of the...
I guess you'll have to wait 2 more months then, maybe less. In the meantime, see if you can enjoy the ride a bit more.
Move the goalposts if you want, but the previous one — that it wasn't clear if Tua could beat winning teams or playoff teams — has clearly been...
Yes, KC is underperforming on offense. They're ranked 12 in points per game, which is the first time they're not top 6 since Mahomes got there. In...
I listed all the games where Tua beat a team that eventually had a winning record or was a playoff team at the end of the year:...
Lots of examples of elite players performing far worse than Tua did in those losses. I mean, right before Mahomes played the Dolphins he put up a...
Bills chance of winning the division based on way-too-early simulations (so take this with a grain of salt) is 20%. The exact percentages are...
Sadly the sentiment of a bunch of posters goes well beyond that. We have posters saying Tua will doom the franchise once we sign him long term,...
More evidence Grier is a good GM. Guy is building a real winner here in Miami.
You've been consistent in that opinion, all the way from draft day. It's not just one post. Here are two others:...
Just simply a lie. You said "all along" that he was AT BEST a slightly above average QB:...