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I agree. I can specify the players taken at #50 and beyond between the years 1999 and 2009, put them in ascending order by number of games...

Wonderful. I don't pretend to believe everything I say is important to everyone. I'd suggest you let the moderators do the job you're doing here...

Yes, please. Just realize that I've made my point, it holds water, and let's move on. :)

No, what I'm doing is illustrating why Josh Boyce is highly unlikely to be any better a player than the guy we took, and neither player is likely...

Once again, you view that question as relevant to my point, and I do not. The question relevant to my point is, what percentage of players who...

Yes they are relevant, and yes they collectively comprise a good percentage of football teams. However, there are a whole lot more of them who...

Sure, and I stand by my original statement that players drafted beyond about #50 are unlikely to become starters (or as I said it originally,...

I conceded earlier in the thread that there is a chance that picks drafted at #50 or later will be successful. However, when you focus only on...

Sure. What percentage of slot receivers in the list I linked do you believe have become significant contributors?

Sure thing. I think you'll find here:...

Personally, I'm talking about the meaning that should be ascribed to "missing out" on Josh Boyce. IMO that meaning is very likely to be nil.

Sounds like you'll never get it. And if you see me as "buried," I'd suggest you move on. I mean what more do you need to do? I'm already...

I'd say a player who at any time was declared a starter for a reason other than an injury to the guy in front of him on the depth chart, or a guy...

This is real simple. Take a look at all the players drafted beyond #50 in the years between 1999 and 2009 (giving the most recent ones time to...

You aren't following my point. What determines the likelihood of success of a player drafted beyond #50 is the percentage of those players in the...

Wonderful, and I have no problem with that, but just realize that your favorite player who's picked in the 4th round is unlikely to succeed, and...

But not enough to feel strongly about getting any one of them over any other, IMO.

That question pertains to a different point entirely than the one I've been making. The relevant question to my point would be, over the past X...

Like I said, if you can't attack the evidence, attack the witness. :)

Do they ever contribute significantly to the game? Sure. Is any single pick more likely than not to? No.

"If you can't attack the evidence, attack the witness; if you can't attack the witness, bang on the table."

And to know how likely a pick beyond 50 is to be one of them, you would have to know the percentage of them who have been drafted out of the total...

No thanks. I'll just stick to the position that any player picked beyond about 50 is highly unlikely to be one of them. :)

Sure thing. Please, since you're providing numbers, tell me how likely a pick beyond 50 is to be a Ring of Honor player for any team in the...

I didn't say those picks are worthless. I said they're unlikely to be significant contributors in the NFL.

And you think that's valid evidence that picks beyond 50 are likely to be significant contributors in the NFL? Surely you've heard of the phrase...

I'm happy to be persuaded to the contrary by any objective evidence that picks beyond 50 are likely to be significant contributors in the NFL.

That should probably be the sentiment for any player picked beyond about 50.

Actually what he'll "probably" do is never contribute significantly to an NFL team.

What's the difference? The odds are that Boyce becomes a whole lot worse a player than Ken O'Brien. In what round do you stop feeling bad that...

The Jets beat us to the punch on Ken O'Brien, too. :)

Well they'd better hurry, because soon there won't be a great number of people who remember what it was like to watch the Dolphins in the Orange Bowl.

I don't think anybody drafted in the fourth round should be viewed as a potential replacement for either of those players. It's much more likely...

But what might that capability present in the way of 1) jamming bigger slot guys, like Aaron Hernandez, at the line, and/or 2) blitzing from that...

How do you think the college tape of Jordan lining up in slot coverage and either blitzing or covering from there factors into this?

Do you believe the impact Jordan can have from Misi's position warrants the trade up to #3 overall to get him?

Jordan also has the unique physical characteristics and style of play to defend the read-option, which of course goes beyond New England.

It's true when it comes to IQ. But no, not every variable is distributed in that way. Sounds like semantics. I just don't think we should assume...

The original post is not about behavior on NFL message boards, per se. It's about what NFL fans in general tend to do on days two and three of...

Nor does anyone else at this point. ;)

I'd rather see the slot manned by Dustin Keller, who can block linebackers in the run game, or flex out to the slot and create mismatches against...

And that's the other of your two choices, in terms of exercising control. In other words, you're fairly limited.

The primary premise of the original post is that players taken beyond about the middle of the second round infrequently contribute significantly...

Think critically, and humbly. :)

What I'm saying is that we're incapable of knowing all the effects on a team of taking one player over another. There is a lot more going on than...

I guess that's a common reaction to having a deep emotional investment in something one has no control over: thinking one could do a better job of...

You're proposing an "experiment" that can't be done. No one can possibly know all the variables at play for the NFL GM.

IMO there are likely a whole host of intra-team, inter-team, college player, salary cap, contract, locker room dynamics, and other variables that...

Born in Columbus like the rest of my family (all Buckeyes!), moved to Miami, where all the geniuses are from, at age two, and grew up there. ;)

I think Rishard Matthews made Davone Bess expendable, in fact. And don't forget Marcus Thigpen in the slot and as a "Danny Woodhead" type player.

Ireland likely has Ryan Tannehill's developmental period as his "leash" IMO, and if you've noticed, the effort of the team in the offseason and...

Or that we fans should realize that we're, well, fans, and not GMs. ;)

You mean deflating the egos of some members of the forum who think they know more than NFL front office personnel? ;)

What trend, exactly? That NFL teams do a better job of picking players than do fans? Is that something you feel is up for debate?

I say the same thing I did here.

Yes, if Swope wins Rookie of the Year, then that most certainly becomes the premise. However, if he doesn't, then we'll stick with this one. ;)

Sure, my statement and yours are identical. :rolleyes:

I can tell you've been here about a month. ;)

Pretty much! :lol: ;)

How do you feel about the trades of Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall? Now, I'm certainly not trying to portray myself as never wrong, but I...

The GM and head coach obviously felt that more talent was needed at the skilled positions on offense. Whether the level of talent at those...

Really? The team's improvment in 2013 isn't still hinging on Ryan Tannehill's performance? The relationship between winning and good quarterback...

Ah well, I thought you were a quicker learner than that? ;)

Really? I never would've thought so, with the certainty with which these opinions are typically expressed. ;)

And the obligatory, meaningless post by Sumlit, who can't seem to help but click on it. :lol:

How is it possible to "talk down" to people who hold themselves out to be such experts? :headscratch:

Ah, but the decisions of folks on a message board are routinely better, correct?

As one example of many, sure. :)

Sure, pretend that there aren't people here who profess to know better than the team in these matters. Pretend that those folks were humble,...

The only consideration in drafting a player is how he played in college? There isn't anything specific to the team doing the drafting that you...

Would you say people typically assume the humble position of believing they're unaware of all the relevant information, or the grandiose position...

Do you really think that, as a fan, that's the only thing you're unaware of in this process?

You mean the smartest people in the room aren't the ones who were pissed at the team when the 3rd round had ended and the Dolphins hadn't taken...

...or perhaps the public isn't aware of various things a good bit of the time, and Swope is just an example of such.

Wow, now not only do you know more about me than I do, but you presume to know what everybody else here knows, as well.

I don't think you know anything about me, pal.

Check the objective data. He's not a better athlete. What's left to explain why people may see him as one is the kind of explanation I proposed,...

I think he seems like a better athlete because he's black. Seriously. I don't think having "Fasano 2.0" is a bad thing, because I think the team...

I was born on the OSU campus, but now that I've achieved a better climate, I won't be coming back. ;)

I don't think Fasano is any worse or better than this guy projects to be. I think it's just a matter of having a cheaper, younger player who can...

I'm not seeing the agility on tape. To me he looks like Anthony Fasano Volume II.

What these folks don't seem to realize is that they're making me and what I do a topic for conversation, which is giving me a level of importance...

Sounds like "psychological incite" is exactly what I've done. :lol: ;)

All exceptions to the rule. Not a thing wrong with it. But thinking you know the players who will be, and believing the team was wrong for not...

There ya go. ;)

Sure, but the "finish line" in the horserace is three years from now, and at this point in the draft, no single player is likely to win (all are...

That's because those fans had somebody else in mind they had heard of, who is a player who is no more or less likely to make the future...

You've essentially echoed my original post, but all of that stands in contrast to believing, for example, that Terron Armstead is a "much better"...

The issue, in a nutshell, is that players like Dallas Thomas or Ryan Swope are perceived to have far more meaning than they likely do, simply...

True, but in terms of recognizing the dynamics at play I outlined in the original post, they might as well be functional morons. Few if any of...

Sure they are. Half of the population has below-average intelligence.

Expect to have some discomfort as the team drafts players who are other than sure things, develops them, and then puts them in the roles they were...

The money the unit will be making this year actually isn't all that great.

Don't worry. That won't be happening.

That slot coverage is amazing. A guy who has the height, speed, agility, and versatility to cover the Aaron Hernandezes of the world in the slot,...

As often as draft picks bust, we should be worried that every pick will be like that.

I think what he presents is the ability to keep read-option offenses off-guard by having him play a hybrid position in which he can do lots of...

Sign Eric Winston, draft Tyler Eifert #12.

Sounds like some others are "remembering" that one as well.

What people fail to realize IMO is that the kinds of plays Austin made in college have been made with far less frequency by similar players in the...

The one play thing is fine for forming a hypothesis to be either confirmed or refuted by a larger sample of data, but when that larger sample is...

The problem with "just watching the game" is that you're very likely to highlight and remember what's consistent with what you already believe...

You really profess to know "why the stats are the way they are," while continuing to hold the position that Welker is the much better...

Sounds like you missed about 98% of it.

You took the position (based on no objective data) that Welker is the much better downfield and big play receiver, and then when stats were...

This is per reception, not per year. Welker averages about 110 receptions a year, so he averages almost two 40+ yard catches a year.

Doesn't sound like it.

Welker, but if you had it to do over, would you have traded Welker to New England? That's the point. Trading Bess may be a similar mistake.

Actually these are pretty simple.

So Welker does it almost twice a year. Sounds meaningful.

No it isn't.

I suppose I'll have to take that on your authority, since you can't do anything sensible with the objective performance data that say they're very...

Including quarterback, which is actually an argument for Bess, not against him. Your argument makes sense of the overall numbers, not the...

Obviously you don't understand the stats I'm providing.

If he can rip up a seam route so much better than Bess, why only 1.4% more 40+ yard plays on his career? Why does Bess have 0.6% more 20+ yard...

So why only 1.4% more 40+ receptions on their careers? Why only 1.2% more TDs per reception?

Bess's percentage of 40+ yard receptions is only 1.4% less than Welker's on their careers, and of course Welker has been operating predominantly...

...that can elevate to a 2nd based on performance.

Sounds about like what people thought about Wes Welker once upon a time.

I think Cooper would be the better fit and yield the better effect on the run game.

Because if winning the game revolves around passing, which it does, then you want to maximize your performance in that area, and other positions...

I don't think it's nonsense to want to have a player who can, one-on-one, match up with the one player on the opposing team (usually the RDE or...

When you look at what people like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham can do in the league nowadays, I think you try to replicate that with someone...

Possible he's gained muscle and lost fat, however. He could've weighed 312 a year ago, with 50 pounds of fat, and 318 now, with 40 pounds of fat.

Classic play-by-play guy. Never forget him and Madden annually on Thanksgiving day.

When was Omar Kelly signed?

If we weren't in the middle of developing a relatively inexperienced quarterback, I might agree that banking on the potential of a 2nd-round...

A superficial analysis at best.

...which is precisely why a negative appraisal of Jeff Ireland by fans on an internet message board, who have no definitive knowledge of the...

That has nothing to do with how he's playing now and whether it's smarter to pay him like the Rams did or move up in the first round with an extra...

Trading up with extra picks for a tackle who will play better than Long and cost a whole lot less is a smart decision. That talent is probably not...

...as was the case prior to the offseason.

Must be the influence of Joe Philbin. ;)

Where is the evidence that Tannehill will ever be any better than Kolb? I didn't want Kolb personally, but Christ, you make it sound like Ryan...

Have you all forgotten about how there is a limited amount of money teams can spend under the cap, and how paying comparative peanuts for a left...

So, have we seen much of this play out?

But surely you've noticed how, after there's a lengthy exchange in which two people debate the issue back and forth, one of them always surrenders...

Is this official research for the front office? ;)

Supply and demand? Could it be that stud pass-rushers are more rare than their counterparts who are able to block them at least adequately?

The interesting thing here is that it seems the new logo has restored the original aqua color that transformed to more of a green shade in 1989....

You don't think Misi is a starting-caliber LB if he plays in the role of the two-down guy who comes off the field for the nickel corner in passing...

I think you can get a good idea of which positions will be targeted in the draft by looking at the current starters who are signed to only...

Wait 'til he's doing two-a-days in July and August in 99% humidity.

It looks like we may be moving toward using the orange like the Seahawks use their green, just as an accent color and not as a primary one. The...

Really I think that entire issue revolves around 1) whether Ryan Tannehill can become one of the league's better quarterbacks, and 2) whether, as...

A first-time head coach has no track record of winning to make his players buy in to his program, so he has to carefully construct the roster with...

Well you have to figure that as soon as the team re-signed Brian Hartline to a fairly large, long-term contract, people's perceptions of his...

What's critical is the tall tight end who can snag the ball out of the air down the middle and be a red zone threat for a developing QB with...

IMO the plan is to surround a quarterback who will be cheap to pay for the next few years with the players who can help him make a Super Bowl run....

...and for team chemistry's sake, you can't bring in a free agent and pay him more than Cameron Wake.

The biggest difference between Luck and Tannehill at this point, and it's supported by statistics, is that Luck is far better at making plays in...

The question is, can you get Austin at #12 and trade back into the 1st with the extra picks to nab Eifert. That would be a coup. Then you still...

I think the offensive line philosophy has changed from where we were with Parcells and Sparano. Instead of spending huge resources on the...

Right, but these defensive gameplans we're talking about have a whole lot more to do with Ryan Tannehill than with the running backs or the...

Also James Jett and Tim Brown. Question is, if that's the model that works, why do you need to pay the speed guy so much, if his contribution...

Regarding how teams are going to defend the passing game, IMO they're still going to make Ryan Tannehill beat them, since he hasn't proven he can...

That should be a tight end like Tyler Eifert.

All this talk about Tavon Austin is wonderful, but I'm not so sure the best mismatch player in this draft, and the best one in terms of Ryan...

The key thing about the personnel in the receiving corps at this point is that all areas of the field can be attacked. Wallace deep, Hartline...

This is why the salary is key IMO. If he's willing to sign for something consistent with the limited role he should have, you sign him. If not,...

I'll stick to the tight end position, which is where I think we should go hard in free agency. Brandon Myers (Raiders) He replaces Fasano and...

It's a "should've been squirted into a Kleenex" child.

And here's why: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_distinctiveness_theory When people are too distinct from the rest of us, based on their...

Never mind. You know what I mean.

Please, go on. Because it sounds like you could be describing an anomaly. ;)

Which is what? They're seeing the same games, right? Why would they disagree?

If watching the games tells you all you need to know, why is there ever any disagreement about anything among the people who watch all the games...

Don't flatter yourself.

An anomaly due to what, quarterback play? The kind Hartline's had his whole career? :headscratch:

Well, considering that the "inflation" of the argument is initiated by others, and I'm willing to repeat my original point numerous times to...

Is this where I'm supposed to feel emasculated if I don't do it? ;)

Sure, but as you can probably tell, I don't base what I think on how many people give a crap. :) Possibly. It's also possibly the problem that...

Ever. If I'm collecing data with my eyes alone, how would we know when I'm right or wrong?

And it reflects well on you when you move the goal posts and ask me to kick your field goal for you by doing the research, while telling me it...

How would we know when I was wrong?

Yes, that's my point, because whether wide receivers have that ability or not, their TD production is widely variable, and winning is much more...

Wait a minute: (and here's where your reading comprehension has suffered once again...) I said I'd do the research if you could tell me why we...

What exactly would the answer to that question prove, in your view?

None of that correlates with winning, however, when you control for the number of TD passes thrown overall. So again, why wouldn't we blame the...

Like I said, you tell me why we wouldn't blame the results, if they exist, on the quarterbacks involved, and I'll do the research you're wanting...

Not necessarily, because the data show that, in terms of winning games, you'll still be limited by your quarterback's ability to throw touchdowns...

No, but he might wanna save a little of his money so he can pay Tannehill if and when he pans out and his second contract comes up.

Then why look and see if anyone's made the playoffs with three or fewer TD receptions by the wide receivers? You're bouncing all over the place here.

OK, then why do the research you're talking about?

What does it matter if they're more able to score TDs if for whatever reason those TDs don't happen? :confused1: The point is that it makes sense...

How many hundreds of posts ago did I say that? 500? 700?

Let's say those special talents exist. How should we measure them?

I'll ask again, before you or I or anyone else spends (or wastes?) the time doing that research: what would tell us not to blame the quarterbacks...

Is anyone arguing that Brian Hartline and Calvin Johnson should be paid the same?

Correlations are based on the full range of data, which means those kinds of instances are included.

And then couple that with the fact that when you control for TD passes thrown overall, the correlation between TD catches by wide receivers and...

If the contention is that TDs by wide receivers vary randomly, how can that be "neither here nor there"? :confused1:

Well at least you're making a strong and genuine effort to discover the truth, objectively, while considering the relevant contextual variables. :up:

The career view is certainly more representative and informative. I just thought it was interesting that in both players' "contract years," where...

The objective data indeed show they are random. I'll admit it's certainly counterintuitive, but then again I have far less faith in my intuition...

I thought we already covered this? I told you I believe that wide receivers may indeed have special talents that distinguish them from each other...

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2013/01/fine-tes-important-20-years-ago-and-today.html Same thing as last year:

A bit of perspective: ...especially when you consider this: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?year=2012&pos=WR&season=reg You'll...

I think we can all agree that variable strongly correlates with "winning," however. :chuckle:

Is this the one? [IMG]

What exactly would I be "baiting" you to do with that post?

Sounds like we have a philosophical difference about what constitutes "solid evidence," and that's fine. :up:

And we still have yet to compare Brian Hartline to the receivers who make the money he's asking for with regard to variables that correlate with...

If it's the equivalent of "water is wet," why is it so hard to provide the large-scale data?

Have you noticed that you're incapable of providing anything other than single examples, without aggregating them into any meaningful, large-scale...

I don't think my behavior is the topic of the thread.

So then it should be relatively easy to provide the data I'm asking for.

So how do these sorts of examples combine to form large-scale data that controverts what I said in the post you quoted? Or are they just single...

Right. Move the goal posts and have me kick the field goal for you. :lol:

I can do only so much explaining to help people understand. At some point it becomes "believe what you want."

:rolleyes:

What concept?

Shouldn't be much trouble for you, then.

Once you understand what I'm saying, let me know.

You'll have to point me to that one.

But look at what he and Bess were able to do in terms of helping the team win (WPA) despite catching only one touchdown apiece, and despite...

No kidding. I didn't yell at my TV this year for any player more than Bush.

Yes, and fully intentional. In other words, I know nobody is saying that. I used the straw man only to illustrate a point. Now, sometimes...

I thought more about it and realized that with this line of reasoning, you've planted us squarely back at post #271 on this page:...

But he had only ONE this year! He can't score, and that's why Tannehill sucked! ;)

No, but then again I'm not an accountant or a statistician either, and look at all we've accomplished here. ;)

Actually I'll run the data on rookie quarterbacks' TD throws to wide receivers and post it. It's entirely possible the data support what you're...

Then I'm wrong.

I'm unable to do that data search myself due to time constraints, but let me ask you this: if no such teams existed, what would tell you that...

Actually you can agree with me either way, if you'd like, since I've made no claims at all about those criteria. ;) I'm just spitting out data...

The quarterback, since TDs thrown overall, rather than TDs to wide receivers, per se, drive the bus.

What if quarterbacks are differentially capable of throwing TDs to wide receivers?

Actually what they did prior to this season fits with the data, as well, since they had quarterbacks in those seasons, too, who didn't pass for a...

Not possible. I have a life. :)

I have no idea.

And it means more than that, as well. It means that you can do just fine not emphasizing TDs to wide receivers, as long as you're throwing for a...

Correct, though sometimes winning a certain number of games enables you to make the playoffs, and other times it does not.

Sure, and the data show that, in terms of winning, that person sure doesn't have to be a wide receiver. You can win just fine without throwing TDs...

What you're doing here overall is changing the criterion from "winning" to "making the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl," and yes, if that's...

Precisely. So what that points out is that when you have a QB who throws more TDs, regardless of to whom, you've made yourself much more likely...

...and how that relates to winning, compared to how it relates to winning when wide receivers, specifically, catch TDs. Correct.

Yes, really. Do you honestly think that by this point I'm interested in making this anything but as clear-cut as possible? You can do it yourself...

I have no idea what you mean by "implemented."

Not that it matters to me or anyone else, but there could be people who are going along with what I'm saying who are simply taking in the...

I haven't said that at all. What I've said is that if there is a special talent with regard to wide receivers' TD receptions, it isn't related to...

What the data show is that a finding such as that would likely be far more attributable to the quarterback's ability to throw TD passes in general...

Because, as seen with the correlation between WR TDs and winning when QB rating is controlled for, and the correlation between WR TDs and winning...

I'm happy to learn from any large-scale objective data showing that the relationship between winning and touchdowns by wide receivers is...

Because what we're focusing on specifically is whether the relationship between winning and passing TDs is driven more by the quarterback (i.e.,...

Numbers of TDs by wide receivers correlates with winning at 0.43. There is a direct and moderately strong relationship between winning and TD...

Actually that was where you should've provided the data that show the ways in which wide receiver play are strongly correlated with winning, and...

I misread your post and deleted my response when I realized my mistake. I did respond to another part of the post, however.

Might they contribute in other ways that are related to winning?

Actually it's based on the number of wide receiver TDs, not the percentage of them. Perhaps the "crickets chirping" response is due to poor...

I'll just stick with the fact that touchdowns by wide receivers isn't at all related to winning, which has been determined by large-scale...

Only in your world in which one example often means everything.

Statistically. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_correlation Quite nicely. That would be an exception to the rule. Some people often pick...

My God! How on earth did we go 6-3 during that period? :confused1:

Tell that to yourself the next time the Dolphins win and you use the score to determine they did.

So how can it be that the correlation between wide receivers' TDs and winning is just -0.19 when QB rating is controlled for? :headscratch:

He doesn't play like a leader, though. When you're playing like a leader, you hit the holes you're supposed to hit because doing so is consistent...

Also, his WPA was poor, which suggests his stuffed runs had the effect bolded above:...

We spend large amounts of time and space arguing the meaning of Brian Hartline's touchdown totals, yet this post elicits nothing more than a...

Ah, but when you can't attack the evidence, you attack the poster, so you've become the topic after all, much like I often am. ;)

You're on the planet in which you're comparing Eli Manning to Chad Henne, Matt Moore, and Ryan Tannehill, and in which TD catches by wide...

And with one simple post, the posting of video clips is rendered meaningless.

Sounds like you know little about what I do.

Patients? :headscratch:

Funny. My take on it is that your subjective belief is that lava is cold, and you're only a bit of objective data away from realizing it's hot....

More correlations: TD passes to wide receivers with win percentage = 0.43 TD passes to wide receivers with win percentage, controlling for total...

You're welcome. :)

Hell, if there are so many, and they're so egregious, why don't you just let them speak for themselves? The fact that you feel the need to...

No. I didn't figure the defense was throwing the wide receivers their passes. ;)

Good for you. Have fun with that. :)

The fact that this question is being asked at this point illustrates the insanity of this thread IMO. My God.

Do you see your purpose here as policing my activity?

I'm not sure you're understanding this correctly. By "holding QB rating constant," what I mean is that we're statistically removing the...

Wonder why so many people spend so much time responding, then? :headscratch: ;) I don't know about y'all, but when I see total BS, I ignore it...

I feel so conquered. :rolleyes:

I don't think you're going to be defining how much dignity I have anytime soon, but nice try, God. :)

I don't think convincing you, per se, of anything is on my agenda. I'm quite content with your going on believing whatever you'd like, as I'm...

My lord! You just want me to be a data mining machine, eh? :lol: :up: Here it is for QBs and WRs for the 2012 season: TEAM Passing TDs QB...

I'm still saying it's meaningless. When you control for QB rating, the corelation is -0.19. There is actually a negative relationship there....

I'm simply illustrating the point, with something other than a number, that TD receptions by wide receivers are weakly correlated with winning.

What, are you saying TDs by wide receivers can be compensated for by other parts of a team? :headscratch: ;) Careful! We're starting to dilute...

Sure, and that would mean Tannehill threw more, too.

My lord! How the hell'd we win seven games? :headscratch: Surely if your most targeted receiver catches only one touchdown, it should be...

Indeed. Billick's "toxic differential" (big plays and takeaways) is strongly associated with winning.

I can't tell if you're asking me for it or not. Happy to provide it if so.

I'm sure you're well aware that correlations of this kind, if they're to have any significant meaning, must be based on more than just one play.

I'd say a -0.19 correlation with winning when QB rating is controlled for is pretty darn meaningless.

No, because that would be only three fewer than the Miami Dolphins' wide receivers scored in 2012, and that would mean I'm probably getting...

Touchdowns by wide receivers are not strongly associated with winning, no, and when the variance associated with QB rating is partialled out, they...

The point is whether any of that is strongly associated with winning, and it isn't.

And here we are on page 17 (for me at least), and no one has controverted my statement that TDs by wide receivers are meaningless with any...

My subjective impression is that Tannehill often throws those passes far too hard. I'm not saying that explains all of Hartline's drops in the...

I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not, but certainly you're aware that all of the statistics are based on "what happens" as well.

Do you actually think I'm going to agree to that? :lol: ;)

So the best tack to take at this point is to investigate statistically the number of drops Hartline had in the end zone, and compare it to that of...

I'm well aware of your opinion in that regard by now. :)

Correct! And both of those statistical observations are better than one or a few pieces of game film IMO.

We did it! :yes: ;) The funny thing about this thread is that I believe Brian Hartline is nothing more than a significantly above-average...

Sure they do. Ryan Tannehill didn't throw more than 12 TD passes, for example.

Stats in general do, IMO. I don't own any stats, personally. ;)

Of course the problem with analyzing these single plays, even if there are several of them, is that there is no corresponding ability to balance...

I'd say the amount of response and discussion determines just how erroneous and insincere the involved questions or points are, regardless of your...

Well at least I'm only "almost" doing that. :lol: :up:

Is there really any way to make a definitive conclusion about those hypothetical scenarios? You're going to believe one thing about them, and...

And what exactly is "true," here? This is all opinion folks. Whatever you believed going in is probably what you still believe.

I'd say it's about time to end this, folks, don't you think? If there was ever anything I've learned from posting on these boards about...

That post was "beaten," soundly.

It certainly is, because there is far more objective evidence for the concept of TD passing ability than there is for the concept of TD receiving...

Going from a TD every 35 receptions to a TD every 74 receptions is indeed statistically significant, as is going from a TD every 60 some-odd...

What's the more parsimonious explanation, that Aaron Rodgers has 27 touchdowns more worth of "TD receiving ability" (there's that mythical concept...

And touchdowns per reception, past and present? :headscratch:

Well think about it. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 touchdown passes. Ryan Tannehill threw 12.

I'll choose what questions I want to answer and with whom I want to have discussions. The way you're conducting yourself in this discussion...

Well if you're amused, why are we bothering to discuss the issue? You just sit back and laugh, we'll agree to disagree, and we'll both move on. :up:

Actually what they sit on very directly and convincingly IMO is the idea that their performance with regard to TDs was compromised by their rookie...

Sure thing. I'm happy to agree to disagree. :)

Why would you not blame the rookie QB when 1) rookie QBs generally perform poorly in the NFL, 2) Tannehill's performance was not significantly...

And that's exactly the point. There is no solid evidence that wide receivers have such an "ability." When you take a look at the wide variation...

If the topic we're talking about is how many TDs he caught, why would I do all that when I can just look at the data and realize that in 2012, his...

The only thing I'm arguing in this regard is that it's quite possible Hartline's TD production would've increased in his breakout season if he...

There's a playmaker for ya, folks. :yes:

The point of from whom Hartline has received the ball was just introduced? :headscratch:

More like, "want to find out the truth?"

And twice the commitment it used to be! :lol: ;)

Or you can just gather the stats you think are important and call yourself right. Your call. :) And in the end we'll leave your conclusion as...

And those numbers were about sliced in half (0.78%) with Tannehill in 2012, despite that he had a sudden and significant jump in receptions and yards.

Now statistically account for the rate of receptions per TD he had previously in his career, while adjusting for the increase in the number of TDs...

Yet he was able to average nearly three times fewer receptions per TD previously in his career than with Tannehill.

The key information here IMO would be those quarterbacks' numbers of TD passes in those years. Of course we know Ryan Tannehill threw only 12...

You think? If Tannehill performs poorly with the "proper weapons," why won't it tell us that the weapons weren't as good as we thought they were,...

Correlation between rate of TDs scored from the red zone and QB rating = 0.75 Tannehill's QB rating was in the 19th percentile in the league....

Correlation between red zone attempts per game and win percentage = 0.71 Correlation between red zone attempts per game and win percentage,...

And by the way, red zone attempts per game correlates with QB rating at 0.70. The needed "playmaker" is the QB, folks.

Is the QB a "playmaker," or is he excluded from this equation? :headscratch:

You mean he doesn't just need a degree from the University of Your Eyes? :headscratch: ;)

Neither had Jordy Nelson through his first three years, and that was with Aaron Rodgers. I certainly don't think it's a guarantee that Hartline's...

Right, and that'll be about the time the rookie quarterback isn't playing like a typical one.

Why thank you! I'm good at lots of things. :) And I see you're still reading intently, and now even memorizing! :lol: ;)

0.55 As strongly as you'd thought? You know what happens to that correlation when you hold number of TDs thrown to wide receivers constant? It...

Sounds like you're both ready to attribute that, if it exists, to the developmental rookie QB nil.

What you haven't seen much (or any) of, from anyone who purports to place at least some of the blame on Tannehill, is some estimation of what...

Actually Aqua's thread did that most directly, in showing that Tannehill's QB rating would've improved by a mere three points.

Like I said, JMO. :)

Ask Packers fans what they thought Jordy Nelson deserved after his third year. Through those first three years, he averaged 33 catches, 423...

The reality of the situation, IMO, is that, in terms of their individual statistics, Tannehill played below average, as rookie QBs tend to, and...

I'd say you summed up the straw man version quite well. Good job. :up:

Right. That's been done elsewhere throughout the thread. But it sounds like you sure did read that post thoroughly though, eh? ;)

Finding fault with Hartline can have the effect of mitigating any potentially negative perception of Tannehill, whether Tannehill is mentioned or not.

And with that statement, there is absolutely no analysis at all done of whether his contract demands accurately reflect his performance, in terms...

Honestly, I think the issue is that everybody's tired of losing, Tannehill is supposed to be the savior, and in a year in which three of the other...

So how is that attributable to the QB? If anything that's a feather in Hartline's cap, because with the absence of alternative targets, he...

We can start with this, Jake: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/n-f-l-evolution-the-eminence-of-the-left-tackle-and-other-myths/

Why would his increase in targets be credited to the quarterback? And if his number of yards per target wasn't any different than it had been...

Wonderful. Happy to entertain. :)

:lol: Right.

How much time do you spend on these posts? :confused1: Here, I'll pick out the part that's relevant: Perhaps, though Hartline's number of yards...

And too bad. I was dying to get in. Figured I would've had a license to steal at that point. :lol: ;) Oh and BTW, the "oysters" thing explains...

Right, how dare someone blame a rookie QB, when they typically perform so doggone well. :rolleyes:

Come on man. We're talking about the difference between who many regard as the best QB in the league (Rodgers), with currently the best QB rating...

Last three seasons: Hartline: Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill. Jones: Aaron Rodgers.

Hope? :headscratch: ;)

How will I know that what I'm seeing isn't the exception to the rule, or an anomaly in that particular game?

And about double the production. Literally.

Yet his number of yards per target was no different than it was with Marshall present.

Actually I didn't. I said that in my opinion, they're more limited than players at other positions. But once again, I'm very happy to learn...

He just caught nearly double the passes and double the yards he had in any previous season. With that kind of jump in performance from one year...

I've said that in my opinion, receivers are less desirable targets in the red zone than players at other positions. Not at the present time, which...

Hartron? :headscratch: :lol: ;) Precisely. So in the previous two years, he scored a TD every 39 receptions. In 2012 he scored a TD every 74...