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Yeah that's a more interesting question than you might think because both KC and TB have statistical properties more similar to SB losers than to...

lol yeah, got a bit lucky though. There's still such small sample size with SB's that the variance is pretty high, and last year just happened to...

Not seeing "NFL open", as in whether throwing in that tight window is something an NFL receiver has a high enough probability of catching that you...

The Arizona example is a bad one. Rosen and Tua are not comparable. Rosen couldn't even manage a SINGLE game at league average level...

Yes. First, the correlation between passer rating (efficiency stats) and win% has increased over that time: around 0.56 in the 80's, 0.63 in the...

It's easy to say we should factor in X, Y and Z, but how do you do that objectively? That's why it's often best to just leave it as z-scores,...

Two things: 1) You don't know how many teams have offered a massive deal for the 1st or 2nd pick since the RG3 trade since most offers aren't...

I don't think teams "learn" like that. The RG3 trade wasn't the first time a team traded a massive amount to move up in the draft. The Saints...

Oh I agree with all that. Just to be clear, I'm assuming that any backup or developmental QB you have doesn't prove he's the franchise QB you've...

Just so it's clear though, the proper comparison is percent of strong armed QB's in the NFL that become elite vs. percent of weak armed QB's in...

Drew Brees isn't the only weak armed QB that ended up great. Young and Montana were also weak armed QB's that statistically ended up #1 and #2 in...

I didn't come up with that. I think even announcers in some games said it. But it describes the issue well, and as I've said in so many previous...

Assuming he starts most games, I think stats alone are sufficient to gauge progress, especially Y/A. Not sure if it will get to "statistical...

Statistically Tua was average for a rookie QB (almost exactly so for rookies with 150+ attempts since 1978), but he was below average compared to...

How could I confuse someone who responded before me? It's what you wrote that's the problem, if indeed that's not what you meant. Regardless, my...

There's no reason to resolve the debate about Tua this offseason. Whether you like him or not (and I like him), the "resolution" to the debate...

It's not only in my head. Fireland in post #3 had the same "misunderstanding" thinking you meant Stafford would be as big a move as Watson or...

You equated Watson, Stafford and Lawrence as "Star QB's". Watson is proven elite, Lawrence is projected elite, and you put Stafford in the same...

I'm not as critical about a player's motives. What matters to me is whether they help the team win championships. There are so many highly selfish...

The only thing that makes sense is it's a power grab by his agent Mulugheta (one of the best in the NFL) who seems to have convinced Watson he can...

Yeah like I said the Rams valued him as "above average". That however doesn't change what the stats say. It also doesn't in any way support your...

Washington picks at #19. Based just on the trade value chart that's 1,325 points to make up after swapping 1sts. Those 1,325 points correspond to...

Yeah I'll be very surprised if KC doesn't win it. btw.. they already have odds for the 2022 SB lol:...

Actually, this increases the chances Detroit spends more to move up in the draft this year to draft a QB. I've been a proponent of trading back a...

Rams are going to be interesting to follow in that case. They had the best defense in the NFL in 2020 (by points), but only average on offense. So...

That's more than I thought. It's apparently a 3rd in 2021, a 1st in 2022 and a 1st in 2023, so not a 1st this year. Using the draft value chart...

Watson totally changes that rebuild strategy because you don't need great surrounding pieces on offense with him. He proved in 2020 that he...

lol THAT is what you think is impressive? That's entirely a function of passing attempts, which Stafford was #1 in twice: 2011 an 2012, and often...

Like what? Be specific. Dolfanmike only pointed out stats that were either team specific (i.e., comparing only to Detroit Lions QB's) which is...

You don't have to compare eras. Look at those z-scores. The z-scores tell you where he is compared to peers in his own era. He's only slightly...

Right, you're ignoring rule changes that have progressively made it easier for QB's to match what were previously historically impressive stats....

If you're really interested in a statistical analysis of Stafford, then he's close to average, though lately he's been better. You want to...

Tua is pretty valuable for us if we trade for Watson. If Houston wants him that should count as a mid/high 1st pick equivalent this year. If...

There is theoretically a way we could get both without sacrificing draft picks in the future if we trade back from #3 to #5 or #6 and use what we...

That's true for EVERY position, and the reason is because scouting in the NFL is not that good. I mean among QB's you have Aaron Rodgers who was...

What does draft position have to do with anything? Brady was picked in the 6th round and he's the most successful QB ever. All draft position...

Big picture: it doesn't really matter if we draft Smith or Chase, or even Sewell (though I prefer a WR as that's a bigger need). The MOST...

Yeah, but Mahomes isn't the best ever. Steve Young's career z-score (including all bad years) is 1.8627. Mahomes hasn't had a SINGLE year that...

It's much harder in football because the defense is a separate unit. The 2 greatest dynasties in NFL history are the Patriots 2001-2019 and 49ers...

History says otherwise. Except for the last 2 drafts, the trend has been LOTS of trade-ups for QB's in the 1st round, or even for top 10 picks,...

Is the Super Bowl any different than the playoffs in this regard? Giving teams potential home field advantage in the playoffs based on their play...

Because this specific reading comprehension issue with you (like.. EXACTLY the same thing about not understanding the difference between “most”...

Editing the post per request from Galant: Saying Brady's success was not mostly due to Belichick does not in any way imply Brady's success in NE...

lol.. I didn't redefine anything. I simply pointed out you were wrong about claiming that giving up a 1st is evidence the QB is better than...

Who said any of that? Once again you're not reading what people write correctly. I said this is showing Brady's success was not mostly due to...

Based on what? Mind reading? Carson Palmer was statistically average both before and after his trade. He lasted only 2 years in Oakland. That's...

Sorry no. Those QB's were considered at best average at the time of the trade. And Tampa won the SB with their defense. Their offense was ranked...

lol not even close. Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Brad Johnson, and many many other average QB's were traded for a 1st. That's more like par for...

Yeah for those teams an average QB is a pretty big upgrade! That doesn't mean they think Stafford is a franchise QB.

How do we know? It's not like he hasn't had big offensive weapons in his career. You know he did have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate and yet the...

Wow, Brady in the SB without Belichick. I wanted GB to win, but am still VERY happy Brady is showing his success isn't mostly due to Belichick and...

That's a bad deal. Stafford is merely average, or at best slightly above. He's no solution at QB, and we shouldn't be wasting the equivalent of a...

There's been some serious movement in the Vegas odds last 24 hours, specifically in terms of whether Watson stays in Houston or not. Up until...

Let's not compare Tua to Rosen. Rosen was a bust of epic proportions, at least statistically. Lots of QB's have been on bad teams with bad...

Seriously Alex, the way you keep trashing Tua in post after post is becoming tiresome. It's not even based on reality. So a 6 year old girl would...

In general, only the opening lines are the result of the bookmaker's analysis of the information available. They'll use both proprietary (or well...

It's actually one of the most accurate sources of predicting events precisely because changes in the flow of money usually reflect actual...

Vegas odds are still in favor of him staying in Houston, but they've been getting smaller. They're now at -125 = 55.56%. However.. there has been...

Packers are 4-1 in the SB. Tampa is 1-0. So of the two NFC teams you should root for Tampa if you want a different SB champion. Anyway, I...

AFTER the fact one could say that. But that's generally not the sentiment at the time. Many of those QB's were hyped, and there's a reason so many...

Yeah that's going to be an unavoidable conclusion if that happens. Brady's not the most efficient ever (that's Young followed by Montana), nor has...

You're overvaluing high draft picks when it comes to finding a great (or very good) QB. Just take a look at the 1st QB taken in the draft from...

Yeah that's more realistic. Keep in mind the Jets are a serious competitor though. They have 2 1sts in both 2021 and 2022 and with the #2 pick the...

Two 1sts and a 3rd is a FAR cry from what Houston will demand. I already posted a link saying they want 3 1sts, 3 2nds AND a Pro Bowl level player...

Some of the greatest players in team sports history have been highly selfish and arrogant, and you're making a grave mistake if you don't include...

Cam has been a huge disappointment for someone taken #1. He's been either around average or below average as a passer except for one year (2015)...

Nah.. he got it right only 2 times: McNabb and Mahomes. Other QB's drafted while he was HC: Feeley, Hall, Kolb, Kafka, Foles, Murray, Hogan....

btw.. just to put you on the spot too for that claim, which posters are you talking about? The Guy and KeyFin already said they aren't examples,...

I don't believe that at all. Only if you produce a record showing that would I believe it. Having "confidence" most likely means you've forgotten...

Which pros do it well? Consistently that is? And wisdom of the crowd is NOT one person. Yes, wisdom of the crowd is often better than any single...

People value different traits in QB prospects. Tua and Tannehill have different qualities. Neither did well their rookie year so depending on what...

Just to bring some closure to this, Texans are saying they won't trade Watson, but IF they were to consider a trade the asking price is 3 1sts, 3...

I doubt it. The greatest potential source of division — keep Tua or take a QB at #3 — has already been settled by the FO. We're keeping Tua. And...

There's nothing fallacious about my argument. You said it was clear Allen had the tools to be an elite QB. Fact is, almost everyone looked at his...

No it wasn't clear. I challenge anyone here to link to a post of theirs from back then saying they thought Allen "had the building blocks to be an...

As I said, few QB's "get their mechanics and mind right" when it's as bad as Allen's was. That's often the most difficult part. You shouldn't just...

Why no trading back? I still think that's the best option. Nothing wrong with perennially having 2 1st rounders. Anyway, whether we trade back or...

The average correlation between points per game and offensive penalties committed across NFL history is -0.04 so I think we can discount that as...

That was Dec 8th. It's now 127-128-1 for home teams so there was no home field advantage in 2020. Still don't see any reason to use Bayesian...

Yeah I think that's a good suggestion. There's too little value to debating Tannehill now. OK I'm bowing out of this thread.

It wasn't one play. Tua repeatedly led us to scores when Murray couldn't be stopped. And I've already made it clear that what I see on film is...

As with Tannehill my view of Tua will be completely determined by his stats after about 3 years, certainly 4. Rookie years count once you have...

Totall agree. I'm just responding to attacks on my position, but Tannehill is a Titan not a Dolphin. I don't wish him well at all regardless of...

You're acting like pressure stats are acceptable in that case but not in Miami. They're not that good stats regardless of the year. Doesn't matter...

Most here are arguing it's the nature of the pressure that changed, not Tannehill himself. I also agree that's the major reason, with less of the...

There is no such thing as "the story is the actual film". People interpret film to create a story and they disagree more often than not. Even the...

My argument is not flawed. My argument is that stats being incomplete is no justification for cherry picking. As to why I base my conclusions on...

Yes this I agree with, but you might not be able to investigate it with available stats. Only IF you can show that, but you can't. For that...

The question isn't whether statistics are incomplete. That's obvious. The question is whether there is SOME information in the Miami statistics...

Well.. if you take the belief by so many here (not me) that Tannehill himself hasn't changed at all, then he obviously isn't handling pressure...

So? You can't ignore what Tannehill did in Miami when evaluating him as a QB, even specifically regarding how he responds to pressure. I mean you...

We're just having a ball thinking about the possibility. Nothing more. It's highly unlikely any team would part with an elite QB in his prime....

QB's that run around a lot trying to make things happen tend to have high sack percentages. It tends to come with the territory. QB's with the...

If Watson comes here, with this defense, we are immediately a perennial playoff team and just a few pieces on offense away from being a SB...

Houston wouldn't do that IMO. From our point of view that looks great, especially since Flores seems to be producing a FAR better defense than...

I wouldn't pick Parsons. He's fantastic, but it's risky to assume we can get a top WR at #18 (I'd put that at 50/50). Trade down is great, but...

I think at minimum you'd have to offer Tua + their 2 picks + 1st next year. Tua's trade value is not that high IMO. I think you get at most one...

Yeah it's a huge barrier. I doubt Houston would want to trade him regardless of Watson's feelings. But let's not forget that Washington gave up 3...

QB's are highly prized so you never know, especially since you can spread those picks out over multiple years. But the slew of picks you'd...

Watson would command a ransom of picks, not just the 3rd overall. Not even sure our 1st 4 picks would be sufficient. This guy is proven elite...

Flores hiring Gailey was a bad decision. Not arguing that. But Flores firing Gailey was a good decision. You suggested in the post I responded to...

I actually don't think we take Penei at 3 because we have greater deficiencies at WR than at OL, though I'm not complaining if they do as long as...

No way. You get rid of bad assets and try again. This isn't a red flag for Flores it's a sign of a no-nonsense coach. VERY good sign. One could...

You don't keep around a bad asset for the sake of continuity.

Allen often overthrew WR's in ways that no WR could ever catch the ball. It was really bad. Regarding Tua, ask yourself why he doesn't push it...

I think you're making excuses with Allen. There was hardly any person who looked at him his rookie season and thought he would end up even...

If you're being technical about "rookie" season, then Mahomes is an example, even though he played only one game his rookie season. Same with...

HC is more important because he can affect the entire team. A full coaching turnover is more disruptive than a turnover at QB position, so I'd...

I've been against using the 3rd pick, or even any of our first 3 picks, on a QB because this is a great draft to try to address WR and RB with...

We're tied for 5th worst in dropped passes at 24: http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232 How many of those...

Waddle's the 3rd guy that's possible. He was just cleared to practice and might play for Alabama in the title game. If he plays really well we can...

Depends on who you are targeting. If you're targeting a top WR, then you can trade down for the sake of trading down because a top WR will be...

Here's the draft trade value chart that serves as a baseline: https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php Note how valuable #3 is compared to #4,...

I would trade down regardless. The #3 pick should be highly coveted, and we can pick a top rated WR with a top 10 pick. I would only trade down to...

Look around the NFL. Tons of teams take their QB before they have an OL in place. So suggesting that NFL teams are following OL first QB second...

You can't think of a worse human being than Tua? So Hitler wasn't a worse human being than Tua? You know, in another thread I pointed out you had...

Clearly not true. Seattle won a SB without a good OL and with a QB that people could see was elite despite a bad OL. But even if you leave out...

Clearly not. It seems like the board is split 50/50 on this issue. Like I said though it doesn't really matter because: 1) people aren't changing...

You know Tua was being compared to Steve Young while in Alabama by a bunch of people, including by Steve Young himself. Young said this about him:...

Exactly the opposite for me. I was afraid he wouldn't have the balls to fire Gailey (assuming the reports are true). Him doing this sends the...

That's going to be a real test for Flores. Does he have too much loyalty to coaches working with him? That was one of Shula's problems...

That's precisely why you trust Flores in this situation. He knows full well how important it is to get a true franchise QB. Thing is, based on...

Yeah SoS means we get the #3 pick: http://www.tankathon.com/nfl So it looks like we have picks #3 and #18.

Man.. Texans making it close: 31-28 Tennessee. Got to have Tennessee win that one. btw.. Derrick Henry has 205 yards rushing in that game and is...

I want to see us in the playoffs yes. And if Jacksonville can win, then we can beat the Bills too. Probability isn't 0%.

Jacksonville just scored. 20-14 Indy 3rd Qtr. lol would be amazing if we sneak into the playoffs with a Jacksonville win.

NFC East is sending either a 7-9 team or a 6-10 team as division winner to the playoffs, pending the 6-9 Washington vs. 4-10-1 Eagles game later...

I think we have the #18 pick locked up now (lowest possible for non-playoff team). The most important result now (other than some miraculous...

Obviously. We've been mediocre for way too long. But it's hard to ignore the progression from last year to this year. I mean it's not like you or...

OK, so it looks like Tua's season ends with a 87.05 rating, which is almost exactly (adjusted to 2020) average for rookies. Average rating for the...

What's all this talk about no longer being a fan or boycotting the team?? That better just be emotions of the moment. If not, then you're not...

Wow, that was a serious crapfest. I didn't expect a win against Buffalo but at least play like you want to win!!! The offense was putrid, yes,...

Ah.. except that the best known predictors of win% are models that only slightly modify Vegas odds. There is still no other known method that,...

If the Eagles beat Washington today, and the Giants beat Dallas, this will be the first time in NFL history since going to a 16 game season where...

Everything I said is true. It's the historical difference between "expected" and "actual". It doesn't matter how Vegas arrives at that expected...

By Vegas. Expected wins was 6 for this year, and the standard deviation in the difference between Vegas expected wins and actual wins is 2. That...

They both have the benefit of a #1 defense. I think the offense moves more with Fitz (statistically seen in the huge Y/A difference), but as you...

Coaches often do say negative things about a QB if they think they need to move on. Just look at how Ron Rivera responded when asked about...

We've already overachieved. I'm happy no matter the outcome tomorrow. Next year however I won't be happy if we don't make the playoffs. It...

Who knows what they're calculating. They also had Stafford and Prescott over both. Justify that if you want. Again, best to stick to transparent...

Like I said, ESPN's QBR is worse than flawed, it's not even known what they're calculating. You don't even know what the flaw is!! Again, please...

Every game matters, and Flores turned to Tua over Fitz midseason after liking what he saw in practice, and he also went back to Tua as starter...

There are many ways of answering a question. Flores went well beyond just dismissing criticism of Tua. He phrased his answer in a way to suggest...

It's not a concern to Flores apparently. For Flores it's the entire body of work (not just a knee jerk reaction after one or two games) and the...

I want Chase. For some reason he "looks" like he could be elite more than the others (to my casual eye). As far as the idea of picking 2 of the 3...

Bills offense is very good. They've scored only 7 fewer points all season than KC, which is saying something. Worse, defensively they've become...

They're mutually exclusive in this context. If you think the interview is making it too difficult to win, then you can't keep interviewing the...

I'm playing around with the playoff machine and if you assume Cleveland, Titans, Ravens, Colts all win, then Buffalo winning would lead to them...

I don't buy that theory. Why pull him TWICE to clearly try and win the game if it's an interview? If it's really an interview you leave the guy in...

Have to admit it's a tremendous vote of confidence by Flores to start Tua after benching him for a game we essentially have to win to make the...

It's hard to be "sure" about almost any rookie QB, with a few rare exceptions. I already mentioned how Prescott and RG3 are great examples of QB's...

Yeah if that's still happening next year I agree it's concerning. He's a rookie though. It's a big step up from college, so I'm not concerned yet....

Well.. I don't like all that Bayesian updating stuff in this context. Think about it: why care about draft position in evaluating QB performance...

I think it would be a serious mistake to pick a QB at #3 because it's not clear Tua will NOT develop into a consistently above average QB. It's...

There are actually 4 good receiving prospects: Chase, Smith, Waddle, and the TE Pitts. Unless we make a deep playoff run I can see us getting 2 of...

Have to give it a bit more time before proclaiming Herbert > Tua. Dak Prescott came in 3rd in league passer rating his rookie year compared to...

Obviously, but that doesn't change what I said. We have at best average receiving threats, with possibly Gesicki being a bit better than average....

You're WAY overestimating our receiving talent. This team has no serious receiving threats, though Gesicki does come close. Our WR's? None of them...

Pat White??? C'mon man. A few games yes, but he's also looked like a potential great in others. Mostly he's been straddling average which is...

Trust in Flores is correct. Look what he's done! And the celebrations you see by both Fitz and Tua when the other succeeds is real, that's not...

What the Jags and Jets are really showing is that it's near impossible to get an NFL head coach and the players to deliberately tank. Maybe the...

If we end up with the 3rd pick I would trade back 2-3 spots and either acquire another high 2nd rounder this year or a 1st rounder next year. At...

Man.. we may get REALLY lucky today. Colts are beating Pitt 24-7 and the Jets are beating the Browns 20-3 at the moment. Let’s say this holds....

Love it. A no nonsense coach. And I think this is something that rubbed off from Belichick who would bench anyone except Brady for poor...

Not sure if this was Tua's last game this season, but statistically he's been OK so far. His rating is now 93.2 when the league average is 93.8,...

Tua played well on his TD drive, but he was too afraid to try and make things happen, like Fitz did. I think Tua's decision making issues can be...

LOLOL!! Finally it's the Dolphins that get lucky. 'bout time. SOOO glad we won this game because this was not the way I wanted the Dolphins to...

Says a Bills fan. Only KC fans should be allowed to say stuff like that. The Bills are currently at +1000 moneyline for winning the SB which...

That’s why you use statistical tests. Not going through the entire argument again. Anyway I think we’ve reached the point where you’re just...

You’re missing or deliberately ignoring almost everything I’ve said. Even this latest debate started with me talking about his much improved...

Why do you have to resort to deliberate misrepresentations? That entire statistical hypothesis testing I did was to see if Tannehill was actually...

Like I said, the confidence intervals are large (i.e., the evidence is not strong), but it's still evidence. You don't just throw information like...

I don't have the links handy anymore, but the pressure stats argument was pretty well trodden for many years while Tannehill was in Miami. It was...

Absolutely amazing what Flores has done even if we don't end at the top, especially with our less than stellar talent. As far as Buffalo, they...

Using pressure stats alone I can't make such an inference. Is there a way to condition pressure stats on other stats that would improve predictive...

It's not that simple. There are many possible hypotheses, each making different predictions, and each having some likelihood of being correct...

No. I need to see which stats would have best predicted whatever we are about to see. That's how you improve on statistical methodology. Until...

Yeah. Better to test the method, see where it doesn't work, and develop a better one than keep adding ad hoc assumptions to something that isn't a...

Again I prioritize methodology over ad hoc approaches that might work in one case but won't in many others.

Has to be a method that can be applied. That is, you should be able to say do X, Y and Z and everyone who does that should: 1) come to the same...

For large sample size I think the stats based approach is superior. Obviously with Tannehill's move to Tennessee it didn't work, but more often...

Dude.. I don't mind being wrong. I just go with what the stats say. You're right though that Tannehill has bucked the predictions from statistics...

Not ignoring that, and if he keeps this up sure I'll change my opinion. But you can't just ignore all the data from Miami. That's the bulk of the...

I'm not making any exception to that 150 rule. I just told you that he was generally bad across many years in Miami, meaning that sample size adds...

I never said it answered the question. All I claimed is that I provided evidence for what I said even if the evidence isn't strong. You're only...

What you want to look at is how often he's pressured, and how well he does under pressure. I agree that every measure people have come up with,...

Most (including pro-football-reference) use the same definition: sacks + hits + hurries, and the data are provided by a 3rd party source like...

Every stat throws away information. It's a question of degree. That's why I said the uncertainty (i.e., the confidence intervals) surrounding...

"Meaningless" would result in near zero correlation to what you think is meaningful, at least over large enough sample size. Clearly, if you agree...

Whatever image you linked to isn't showing for me (this site has some issues even with some images I post), but it really does matter if you're...

It's incomplete but not meaningless. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers were best on that list. Even you have acknowledged Wilson as being a special...

That's the point though. You don't have the evidence on what those tools were. It's a supposition. The evidence we have so far suggests Tannehill...

Fair enough, but "almost never" is still accurate. Sure it does. Look at the passer rating differential between "pressure" and "no pressure"....

Even with an incomplete measure what I provided is still evidence for what I said. That's what you're missing. I'm not disagreeing with you about...

Didn't miss that. It's still evidence for what I said. Now.. if you can show me a different operational definition of pressure that distinguishes...

There's no good measure of OL so I can't give you a statistical argument. Pressure stats help but as resnor said they don't capture a lot....

No need to prove that since it has nothing to do with what I said (and I wouldn't make such an argument anyway). Again, I said different QB's deal...

His play in Tennessee supports the view you and others had that the OL was really important for him, so I conceded that long time ago. Doesn't...

Once again you missed the point. There's an operational definition for "pressure" they're using.

Both of those statements are true, yet have nothing to do with what I said, which is that QB's respond differently under pressure and that for...

You wouldn't have "pressure" stats on those QB if they were never put under pressure. There are operational definitions people use for those...

Yeah there are too many who have an unhealthy obsession with Tannehill. It's like the tiniest perceived slight sets them off into some kind of...

omg.. are you serious? You think all humans react equally to the same situations? If you want evidence try this: [IMG] That was from 2016. Note...

Nah. Watch the tape. This is less a stats argument than a tape argument even though the stats back it up. I NEVER saw Tannehill get his guys...

Once again, you deliberately make false statements (a strawman) to try and make a point. I said OL and coaching was subpar. How do you read from...

Absolutely. Depends on the QB how much the OL matters but for Tannehill it matters a ton. Coach is always important except for the most...

TDK your view of the influence of HC's is just completely unrealistic in that it doesn't fit the data at all. I went through a lot of this before...

That's pretty obvious. One of the best RB's in the league that others have to game plan against, an OL good enough to give Tannehill time to scan...

It's a catch-22. It's hard to put the right pieces around Tannehill, which is why we couldn't find out what he could do with those pieces. He has...

For teams, not for individual RB's because they don't all have the same load nor are they used in the same situations. You could apply it to...

That's the proper stat to use. Yards per game is confounded by running out the clock. Wallace was considered a top flight WR when we got him....

Eagles may be worth watching because so many mock drafts have them taking a WR. I'm really hoping we take Ja'Marr Chase with our first pick but if...

Jags now have the first pick due to strength of schedule! Oh man.. the Jets are SOOO bad they can't even suck enough lol http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

Sorry you're simply wrong about saying I'm wrong about us being average except at OL and coaching, and provably so w.r.t. the running game and...

He hasn't proven it yet, but the Arizona game showed potential. The fact he still played well today despite having no receiving threats is a good...

Our WR's were overall average. No one is looking at the WR's we had and saying they were crap. Even our own fanbase wasn't saying that for several...

Tua's rating for the year went down a bit after today even though he played well overall (that INT hurt him). He's now at 92.54 for the year...

What a satisfying win!!! NE loses 8 games for the first time since Brady + Belichick era started (with Brady gone Belichick can't overcome), the...

Doesn't matter what Tannehill does in Tennessee, it would have been a major mistake to keep Tannehill in Miami. Tannehill was average in Miami,...

You can adjust for offense. The correlation between points scored and points allowed across NFL history is -0.3 and since both axes are in the...

They're currently worst in 3rd down conversions against at 52.2%, but points are really all that matter. You can give up as many yards or 1st...

Not even close. They're slightly below average, ranked 21 out of 32 right now. Average points per game this year is 24.7 and the Titans are giving...

Miami is currently favored by 1.5 points: https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/nfl-game-lines.sbk That's only one site of course...

I predict Tua will play well even without all that. If he does you'll see why the threshold for "reasons vs. excuses" needs to be placed a lot...

I agree it would have been unreasonable to expect more from this team before the season began, but given where we are now I do think there are 2...

These are the new Dolphins. Have to recondition the fanbase to winning.

Parsons is a top 15 pick. We won't be able to get one of the top rated WR's if we pick him, and given that we have an elite defense already it's...

No, regular season only. Hayes actually had 5 INT's in the playoffs that year, and Oakland won the SB. Single game INT record is 4 held by lots...

The all-time record in the SB era is 13 by Lester Hayes in 1980. It's within reach.

People tout the rule because it's generally better to go with what tends to work. It's also worth noting that Tennessee isn't even one of the...

Can't leave the 49ers and Cowboys out because the salary cap coincided with the end of their dynasties, showing an effect. Regardless, there are...

The salary cap has measurably increased parity. You have about the same number of years pre-salary cap (started in 1994) and post in the SB era,...

Gesicki is the big one. I really hope he doesn't need surgery and he'll be back for the Raiders. Either way, good teams overcome, and I think...

Guys, it looks like the most likely path to the playoffs is: 1) We win 2 out of our last 3, with one of those wins against the Raiders (this...

Yeah go back and watch the game. Except for that one fumble return TD at the beginning of the game our defense could NOT contain Murray. I mean he...

I stopped updating stats many weeks ago on Tannehill. Like I said before that debate's basically over. Didn't watch the Titans today. Really not...

Defense played really bad against Murray. I mean you know that Murray had a 150.5 rating with 3 TD's and no INT's. Without Tua we lose that game....

So, Tua now has a 95.24 rating after 184 passing attempts. Compare that to 89.9 for Burrow (404 attempts) and 94.2 for Herbert (455 attempts,...

Great game today. Nothing like playing the best to see how far you are from where you need to be. Defense finally showed they could play well...

I think you have the effect of FA backwards. Free agency helped level the playing field. You're thinking only in one direction: getting that RB...

Defense might be reason #1, but RB was much more important back then than it is today and should be thought of as reason #2. From 1983-1995 during...

You only need to look at how good Belichick has been in the draft with an even more successful team than the Dolphins + Marino and the excuse that...

It actually came all in the 3rd quarter. Tua went 1-4 in the 4th and his incomplete passes in the 4th meant we settled for a FG in a drive that...

Yeah, that's no different than what I'd argue. The average difference between an elite QB and average is estimated 2-3 wins if you go by passer...

If you can show me evidence of how losing such pieces had a major effect on Brady in the past, then we can discuss this. Edelman isn't Randy Moss...

That's why I said the "only major change" was Brady. No question it's primarily Brady. They've lost WR's or other players before and hardly missed...

Like I said in my original post, it's a difference between average (Brady last season) vs. near-worst in the league (Cam Newton this season)....

I've consistently said HC > QB. Not sure how after all these debates you keep forgetting that. My point is that you consistently devalue the QB....

Tomlin may not end up being the biggest competition to win COTY. It could be Stefanski (Browns HC). Right now the Vegas odds are as follows:...

With a NE loss they'll have 7 losses on the season. Last time that happened was 2002. One more loss (which is likely given that they play both the...

Here are the other candidates for this week: Jonathan Taylor, RB (IND); James Robinson, RB (JAX); Cam Akers, RB (LAR); Justin Jefferson, WR (MIN);...

This board right now seems to have far fewer of those "jerks" and "trolls" than years ago. Some have been banned, but others seem to have found...

It's the only thing that explains the personal experience he was referring to. Because clearly, when you look at the threads since the Denver...

I can easily believe that's been your experience. Let's trace the origin of this "dismissal" of anti-Tua opinions you say you've experienced. It...

LOLOL Pittsburgh loses to Washington. Dolphins perfect season is still safe! Just goes to show a "low probability" of winning isn't the same...

Good estimate! That's almost exactly what Vegas thinks right now. A +7.5 underdog translates to 21.9% win probability.

This is correct, and so far the Dolphins defense has been relatively weak against mobile QB's. We couldn't contain Wilson, Murray, and even Cam...

Yeah they really squeaked by multiple times this season. But strength on paper isn't what counts if you go 19-0. As time passes and memories fade...

Pittsburgh has to lose one for that to happen, but yes if Pitt loses I think he should be, assuming we end strong. Getting more worried about...

This is also a test of Flores. I think Gailey has the wrong tendencies on how he thinks he needs to coddle Tua. Flores needs to step in and insist...

Doesn't matter how emotional it gets, players and coaches have to do what helps win games most, and that behavior from the players and coach was...

There was only one game where I saw a true "flash" with Tannehill his rookie year: against Wilson and Seattle. Tannehill actually helped lead the...

Just so everyone knows, the 49ers are favored by Vegas today, albeit only very slightly by 1 point. After that, Bills play the Steelers, which...

I think the fact Tua has now shown twice high level ability — Arizona (which IMO was more impressive because we needed to score on multiple drives...

First time we started 8-4 since 2003! Flores is the real deal folks. This KC game is a good barometer of where we are. They're the standard in...

Umm.. that's totally inaccurate dude. Check out pages 3 and 4 and the top of page 5 of the game thread:...

I see. Then I disagree. I think he played fantastic in the Arizona game, even more so than the 2nd half of today. I also think he played terrible...

Are you talking only about today or all games up until now? I ask because you say "has not played well" rather than "did not play well". If it's...

You have some serious issues man. Someone asks if Tannehill was at fault for the loss, I say no, and you say that's a double standard against...

I wouldn't make that assumption. Burrow has a good reputation from college but statistically he wasn't that good in his NFL rookie season. Passer...

Had that game on another screen. Titans defense was non-existent for a good part. Mayfield had a field day. That near comeback was due to a fumble...

Update: Tua's rating after 136 attempts is 99.45. League average is 93.3. I think after his next start we can do some really preliminary...

We're probably losing next week no matter who starts. Hey.. Tua started off poorly but rebounded in the 2nd half. It was enough to win. He'll...

That's a total lie. I put in the proper qualifiers when talking about Tannehill stats in Miami that showed he was no better than average (e.g.,...

OK let me see if I can write this response during halftime of a so far disappointing game. One way you'd measure the degree to which QB evals...

You're not following the discussion. It's about making accurate predictions in BOTH Miami and Tennessee. Generally, it's been one or the other,...

Clearly not. Looks like he's starting today. And unless you think Flores wants to deliberately decrease his chances of winning, this is Flores...

We have tons of evidence that the pros gets QB evals wrong at an alarming rate even when they get the pick of the litter. Often, the QB taken...

Maybe in your case it's true that you got Tannehill right in both Miami and Tennessee, but unless you can show you're better in general than those...

lol.. you're just so off base. The reason it seems like a double standard to you is precisely because YOU are cherry picking things, ignoring all...

It's not an indictment against Tannehill, just against supporters saying they were better at making predictions about Tannehill. Tons of...

I only brought up Montana just to make sure you weren't going back to your original claim that great QB's tend to go to teams that are already...

It's not revisionism. You guys actually made predictions. That's the point. And the predictions were wrong. That it took you longer to realize...

When people say "carry" they mean something like "often be predominantly responsible for winning when the rest of the team isn't playing well", or...

lol yes that's true. Actually it's one of the best examples out there of the rest of the team already built but missing the QB. Doesn't change the...

In 2016 and 2017 you were ranked #14 and #19 by points scored, so around average. It's only in 2018 that it dropped off precipitously, so you were...

The stats can't show which is more the engine because we don't have sufficient Tannehill without Henry data. Regardless, the general view around...

Probabilities are more reliable because you're looking at all possible combinations of W/L for each game weighted based on the probability of...

I don't think playoffs with 10 wins is as difficult as you're suggesting, assuming we beat the Raiders. It's not obvious the Ravens will win all 4...

We're the 6th seed right now and all our remaining games are against conference teams, so there's really no excuse to miss the playoffs. We...

I understand what you were saying. I still think my point is valid even after only 4 games. Using more information (i.e., what we thought...

Yes to all, but I don't think any of that is relevant to the point I made in post #69, which is that you're probably introducing rather than...

Nothing wrong with having an opinion, but like I said I think there's good reason to think the last part of that last sentence of yours is...

I never suggested that. I'm saying that even the best in the business don't know HOW to use such measurables from college to accurately predict...

I think it's better to ignore college performance if the goal is to predict or evaluate NFL performance. There are FAR too many busts among QB's...

Yeah absolutely. A WR that is considered a threat by the defense is top priority IMO (and we don't have one of those), but after that I'd...

I think it's more LB. In some of those earlier losses we didn't have the speed at LB to stop runs to the outside.

I like Gesicki. I also like overloading the offense with talent, especially the passing offense. Besides, many of the draft picks won't pan out,...

If we're lucky with that Houston pick I'm hoping we get Ja'Marr Chase with our 1st #1, but Houston might not play along. I'm still of the opinion...

Regarding the defense, we're now #2 in points allowed per game, trailing only Pittsburgh. In only 3 out of 11 games have we allowed more than 21...

Based on what? Arizona's defense is ranked 14th in points allowed per game while the Jets are 29th. Arizona's opponent passer rating is 12th best...

Right, you're adding conditions to Tua you're not adding to Fitz. Did you ever point out the number of bad passes Fitz has thrown that could have...

?? It's both in the Arizona and Chargers games that a Tua-led offense scored more than 20 points. In the case of the Chargers game that was 29...

??? Why do you think the real Tua is ONLY the Tua we saw in the Denver game? Give the guy credit where credit is due! Against Arizona, a FAR more...

I'm guessing by your edit you're talking about the original, long-standing argument about whether Tannehill is actually at minimum an above...

First of all, Fitzpatrick in almost every year he's started has ended up with a below average rating, so this year isn't some anomaly. In fact,...

Personally I think it's a little of both. IMO Flores is trying to get Tua the game experience but also not trying to rush him.

The thumb injury was sustained this week, so nothing to do with being pulled last week:...

Probably not good, but Fitz was pretty bad with a 83.48 rating over those 4 games. I doubt Tua does worse.. I mean his worst ratings so far are in...

As long as you're ascribing causality to the QB, sample size issues will be similar for passer rating and offensive EPA per play, and if anything...

But that's also true for all the arguments everyone else is making about which QB would be better going forward. Not really singling out my...

Well sure we don't know with certainty, but I've never seen Fitz play a game like Tua's Arizona game. I mean if we're playing Devil's advocate,...

I did that and said from the outset we can't use Tua stats yet. It's only when others used stats that I pointed out "luck" counts because you...

It counts because there's no way of quantifying "luck" in an objective way. We can all see obvious cases on film, though it's also obvious many...

Well that we can agree on. If Tua fails we're once again in a 3-4 year cycle to get the next guy = typical Dolphins. Just don't think that's the...

Right, your analysis is based off of primarily one game, namely Tua's worst game. It's like you've forgotten the Arizona game. Did that not...

Just got through telling you that sample size with Tua is too small to make much of anything. But if you're going to ignore that, why not quote...

Pros to playing Tua? He's the only QB on this team that could be considered a serious candidate for future franchise QB (certainly not Fitz), and...

You guys are way too down on Tua, a rookie who has started only 4 games, had one great game, had a total crap game, and two others so-so....

You don't need to do all 3 to win the SB. It's true that defense and offense are similarly important — offense has statistically been slightly...

Factually untrue. We won Wild Card games in 1998, 1999 and 2000 without Shula. Unless you're only looking at losses, in which case that's really...

They are taking steps towards becoming a solid team. Last year we were ranked 25th in points scored, this year 13th so far. Last year we were...

I actually scheduled a flight during this game because no team that's supposed to be a playoff contender should be losing to an 0-10 team and...

This Moo guy is "not a fan of passer rating" yet he doesn't understand that passer rating inflation is so huge over time that you have to equate...

The caveats go further than that. Anonymous responses may even be less accurate if the person feels they can say things that are untrue without...

Not necessarily. It's not always benching vs. not benching. A lot of stuff is just what to say in public and what not to. There's a reason...

The HC of the team the player is on is pretty clearly more biased. Their opinions will be made public and can impact team chemistry. That's why...

OK no problem. It's just that I'm the only one here arguing on the other side so it's hard to see the context you intended. I'm also high on Tua,...

Yeah he had a -0.2292 z-score last year. The year before was 0.4. It's straddling average. With one season worth of games the confidence intervals...

I've seen every Tannehill + Titans game since 2019 except one I think. Never did I think Tannehill was "carrying" the team. So no this isn't...

Revisiting this debate now after another month has passed, Brady's passer rating after today's game is 95 when the league average is 94.2. It's...

Once again, it's not the final output. Yes Tannehill had many "elite" games last year. Not the point. It's how those stats came to be. We all know...

Tannehill never had games like Tua's Arizona game where you could say he was "carrying" the team to a win like that. No, never. You're right...

You're talking about before the game? It might not have been something that was easily diagnosed without seeing how it affected his ability on the...

It was way more than 1 to 2 a year. I'd say on average more like once or twice a game where the issue popped up. It was a common source of...

I'm talking about in the NFL. Talk to anyone that's not a Tannehill fan and they'll tell you he often just took sacks he didn't have to. No, I'm...

Tannehill has never been known for having good pocket presence. Most people that have no stake in this debate will tell you that. And sacks are...

Tua at his best would have easily done what Tannehill did in your video IMO, while I don't think the reverse is true. And I'm pretty sure most...

Yeah I don't put that in the same category as the Tua example. Tua had to evade and weave through more defenders behind the line of scrimmage, and...

"Never" is correct. Check out 9:40 in the highlights. We have NEVER seen Tannehill do that, not in Miami nor in Tennessee. That also clearly shows...

I don't know about today. I know that yesterday your order is correct, but in the Arizona game it's clearly Tua at the top. I also think it's not...

Wait, I fully acknowledge Tua had a terrible game yesterday, including bad pocket awareness. So I'm giving Tua credit for pocket awareness we've...

Yeah, but it was sustained for 3 games. Something is wrong with your hypothesis if this is just to be treated as luck. I mean, you can see that...

Fitz hasn't played better or worse under Flores. That's the only comparison of different coaches with the same QB we have where one of the coaches...

Teams adapt, which is one reason it's so hard to predict games: it's not like the "same" team always shows up. I fully expect Flores to adapt and...

You keep saying smoke and mirrors, but that smoke and mirrors lasted FAR longer than you predicted. You suggested after the Rams game that this...

lol.. you're predicting we end 2-4, losing to the Jets. Man, I'd gladly bet real money with you (1:1 odds) that we get at least 3 more wins this...

"Had we kept Tannehill".. so not Tannehill the rookie. Of course a vet Tannehill would have done way better. Doesn't mean we would have won since...

Regardless of what Flores says I do think it had something to do with injury. First of all, Tua's known to be an accurate passer yet his throws...

Board isn't quiet anymore! lol.. maybe it should be more quiet if this kind of loss is what it takes to increase posting activity.

I agree Fitz showed today he was more likely to have helped us win THIS game, but Fitz would also have lost the Arizona game so it's not like it's...

Yeah I said it in another thread that Gailey is historically not a good OC. Just look at the rankings of his offenses:...

I don't think any of our WR's create fear in defenses. We have good #2 receivers but not someone who everyone worries about covering, and...

Sure but lack of better personnel in the passing game hinders it more. Really, anything you do to improve the team will help all other aspects of...

After one game? No, it's still a passing league and we should improve the passing game first. That alone will open up the running game. There's no...

Update on Tua stats after his worst game so far: passer rating after 97 attempts is 100.1. Hopefully the benching today is only temporary and...

Credit to Flores in that case. It's important to build a culture where whoever performs best gets the nod. I still think an injury was hampering...

We're still right in the thick of things, especially if the Raiders lose to KC later. Can't believe Indy is about to beat GB though. That doesn't...

Is it a classic Dolphins loss? Classic to me would have been playing well, even leading into the 3rd and just collapsing when it mattered. Today...

Right, which an injury can do to you. We've already seen him take command of an offense before, so it's not like he can't do it. It's that...

Wow.. disappointing game. Few players played well today. It's almost like everyone was jet lagged or so. Either way Flores has to show this was...

Someone needs to beat Pittsburgh. Coach of the year will definitely go to Tomlin if they stay undefeated. I don't think the Dolphins perfect...

Really? I've already turned that corner. I've personally seen enough from Flores and Tua to be confident this is the HC + QB duo we've wanted...

No such effect. First, all teams have played either 4 or 5 home games, and if bad home teams were playing good away teams more often the red line...

Look at it this way. If we win the Super Bowl that means we'll have played 11 more games. Throw in one loss to KC along the way and we can climb...

I actually can't make sense of it. Others I can't make sense of: https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/nfl-betting/nfl-game-lines.sbk Colts...

I do think Tua is going to end up a great QB. Could be wrong though. But I was very high on him pre-draft — kept saying this was the one QB out of...

You falsely claimed that I implied all the credit went to Tua. I never ever said nor implied that. All I said was that only Marino and Tua would...

Who said they can't?? The post you quoted explicitly mentioned 3 QB's that did, and post #16 showed the probability that an average QB would win a...

If you go by Vegas odds, with O/U at 45 and Miami with a -3.5 point spread, the prediction is Miami wins 25-21 or 25-22. Let's see how close that...

Totally untrue. How many times have I said the HC is the most important individual on a team, and that defense as a unit is FAR more important...

See that's the problem. You deliberately mischaracterize the argument I've been making and then argue against it. It's called a strawman, and this...

Right, but that's the exception not the rule. If you're building a franchise you go with what tends to work best, which is get a great HC and a...

So why did Gibbs fail when he returned to the Redskins from 2004-2007? Let me guess, by points scored their offense during that time ranked #31,...

Before worrying about 10-6 or 11-5, note how rare what's now likely to happen is. Our next three opponents are: Broncos (3-6), Jets (0-9),...

That's just not accurate. Last year they started 8-0 only to finish 12-4. The year before that they started 6-2 then went 5-3 in the 2nd half of...

Dream scenario is we pick #2, Lawrence refuses to play for the Jets AND Tua shows he's a great QB by year's end so that we can trade away the #2...

There's no need, but it can only help. If it's high enough, you can either pick a true blue chip player or trade back in the 1st, gather another...

There are 5 teams at 6-3 in the AFC vying for 3 WC spots which means that realistically there is no way a 9-7 team is making the playoffs because...

Who cares. If we make the playoffs consistently and it becomes clear even a Belichick-led NE is no longer a powerhouse without Brady then you...

If you look a bit more closely what's below average with Tua is Y/A, which I think is partly due to this team not having a WR that can threaten...

Interesting idea. Depends on what's at stake, as in which opponents you might have. Thing is this.. there's so much competition right now for...

Might as well update Tua's stats. He now has a rating of 104.8 after 77 attempts. As I always say wait till ~150 attempts to make much of passer...

That 5 TD and 0 INT is partly due to a lot of good luck though lol. Doesn't matter, Tua is generally accurate and a fast decision maker. Today...

I don't think it matters so much who wins the division in this covid year where home field advantage is so small. Only advantage really is for the...

Regarding playoff scenarios, check out how similar in difficulty the remaining opponents are for Miami vs. Buffalo: [IMG] One really strong team...

No that's just the market regression weight lol (look at the x-axis on that graph).

You're easy to understand once one realizes your priority is NOT winning. Instead you just want the football team to play a certain way because it...

Yeah nothing special there, basically fitting a curve to data on how well spreads predicted actual score differentials, and using that to improve...

You can prevent dying earlier than you otherwise would. I think when an individual has little ability to influence his/her environment to prevent...

Not this team. This team is different, and it's the first time I've said that on these boards. That doesn't mean I'm guaranteeing a win tomorrow,...

So it's clear resnor, there a reason I said "potential deaths". I was pointing out potential consequences of taking the view you described: don't...

The virus hasn't run its course, and there IS enough social distancing, mask wearing and partial shutdowns so that 1) not everyone gets it, and 2)...

This "COVID" year is a great opportunity for the Dolphins to go deep in the playoffs because home field advantage is so low. It's also an added...

That's why the "excess deaths" statistics are so useful. There's a sudden spike in deaths with the onset COVID-19 relative to 2015-2019, even if...

I don't think you could justify that. That's like searching for something that might show something lol. You either do an ANOVA where each year...

That's a tough question to answer because the t-test is operating on individual game passer ratings, not year-end passer ratings. It also depends...

Base numbers are from pre-COVID 2015-2019.

Yeah it is likely higher if you go by excess deaths (more deaths due to whatever cause during the pandemic):...

That's only explainable if it's user error because tests for genetic material specific to a pathogen tend to be really accurate. That means a lot...