Where does Ronnie Brown rate among NFL running backs?

Hey anyone can dream

 

truth.

 

Ronnie has not so far proven he belongs in that top 5 list. He has to be considered in the top 10, but to me this was the most telling statement in that article:

 

I hate this debate. So many factors go into what makes a running back elite.

1. Offensive line. Would Ronnie be considered elite by now if he had been drafted by the Eagles, Vikings, or Chargers? Would Westbrook, Peterson, or Tomlinson be considered elite if they were drafted by the Dolphins? Interesting questions to ponder. Unfortunately we can never know the answer.

2. Offensive scheme. Before he was injured Ronnie was on his way to becoming the best running back in the league in 2007. Not one of the best backs but THE best back. In Cam Cameron's offense he was a beast. No doubt about it. Would Ronnie achieve elite status if he played for Cameron and the Ravens?
3. Draft status. Like or not the fact that Ronnie was taken with the #2 overall pick in the draft affects the way he is perceived around the league. Reggie Bush, Robert Gallery, Charles Rogers, Julius Peppers, and Leonard Davis were all taken #2 overall. Only Peppers has achieved elite status. Yet there are still certain expectations when you're drafted that high.

4. Number of carries. Adrian Peterson lead the league in yardage last year but he had 363 carries. If Ronnie had 363 carries he probably would have run for over 1500 yards placing him among the Top 3. Here's another way to look at it. Ronnie had 214 carries last season and ran for 916 yards. Cedric Benson had 214 carries and ran for only 747 yards. Brian Westbrook had 233 carries and ran for 936 yards. Marion Barber had MORE carries (238) and actually ran for LESS yards (885).

5. In part its a popularity contest. No love for Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, or Brandon Jacobs but those guys are all integral to their team's offense. At any given time one of them can take over a game. Week 5 Adrian Peterson ran for 32 yards and zero touchdowns against the Saints. That same week Jacobs ran for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Seahawks. I know the argument. "But the Seahawks sucked last year." However Westbrook only ran for 61 yards and had zero touchdowns against the Seahawks. When you start to look at individual performances the line between elite, great, very good, and average starts to get blurred.

Is Ronnie elite? Where does he rank? I don't know. However I will tell you this. When they lace 'em up on Sundays I like my chances with Ronnie Brown.

 

Iam not sure how projection of a healthy athlete does not come into play here...

Some of ya'll listed 10 to 15 guys over Ronnie.......there isnt 4 other guys in the league that have the overall talent of ronnie brown..So you go ahead and pick your 10 to 15 guys over him because he has an injury history, i now have a healthy back,that i know,from previous experience,can put up a 2000 total yard season.

If the guy was healthy and put up over a 1000 yards total in 8 games, you must take that seriously when projecting the player if he is healthy and in his prime.

Mark Higgs, mark logan, bernie parmalee, etc......i'am grateful,and theres only one guy that i would have to seriously contemplate on trading strait up for,and thats AD. I wouldnt trade ronnie brown for no LT, no westbrook, or thomas jones {what} or no marshawn stinkin lynchmob.

On top of everything,he is the frontman for a new offense that is taking the NFL by storm, an offense that sits itself front and center, in your backyard. How anyone would be so quick to part with this cat is beyond me.

 

No one wants to part with Ronnie Brow, DJphinfan. Posters just listed 10 to 15 backs that are better than him.
And thier right. To this day, Ronnie has not proved that he is a top 10 back. He does, however, have the potential. I'm not going to argue with that.

 

Potential is real brother, it can mean nothing if you dont have the proper makeup {we know that}, but in ronnie browns case, the potential is exactly what this is about.... All that matters is what will he do this year, just because a dozen or so backs have better statistical years does not make them better players or more importantly, project better..

If iam Jeff ireland, I take the health of a player coming into the year..I look at the versatility of the player... and I summize to the best of my ability, the talent of the player... When i put those 3 things together and include their age{27} about ronnie brown, i come up with a top 5 back.

We are going into unprescedented land with this offense, we know what amazing things he can do with the ball in his hands {not one fumble, not one bobble, or poor decision in the wc}, that has to account for something. If anyone thinks that just anybody can waltz into this offense and do what ronnie did last year, well , lets just say i would disagree with those who think that.

Iam just tired of hearing how many backs had better statistics, thats not how you decide who is a better football player, or whether or not you would sign the player long term.

If this thread is to have some meaning imo, then people should list the players that you would take right now over him strait up.

For this year, with this offense and its direction, with knowing what a healthy ronnie brown can do on a field, with this oline that i have built in front of him, here's my list of players that i would take over ronnie brown going into this year................

 

Sorry, DJphinfan, I disagree completely. How could you say players who have put up better numbers than Ronnie Brown are NOT better than Ronnie Brown? They put up the better numbers, therefore they are better than him.
Now, when it comes to potential, Ronnie Brown has more potential than any back in the league. His skills, plus the fact that he is in his prime and finally has a good offensive line in front of him, suggest that he will breakout. But until he does, I'm not ready to say he is one of the best backs in the league.

 

I understand your POV, for me, statistics can be misleading, and i believe a true gm does not rely on them when accessing a players future. If you know the players character and work ethic, then the players talent means everything, backs getting a thousand yards means nothing to me, to many variables that can help that player achieve that goal { oline being the first, coaching, system, amount of carries}.

Your projection of the players talent and circumstances {your football gut} is what its all about. If you based your rankings and signings on statistics and the past, you would not have a job for very long{shaun alexander}. You must project at some point on potential when its showtime.

In this case, its all about the player fitting into the system {and boy do we have one of those}, and how to maximize all the variables around him, so i can get the most out of the talent that i projected.

 

he'll answer the question on the field this season definitively one way or the other

 

Better numbers don't make a football player what he is or is not. Numbers are for ESPN neophytes to drool over while ineptly rambling on about their newest top 10 list of whatever. DJ is right, the right question for a real GM or a real football fan is not how their numbers stack up, but who else in this league right now would you rather have.

Just a couple of years ago everybody and their brother had Larry Johnson in the top 3 of their list of elite running backs in the NFL. Why? Because he reeled off back to back 1700 yard seasons. Many of the more astute fans here observed that those numbers just might be due to the superb OL he was running behind, and really wasn't any better of a back than our own Ronnie Brown, while others insisted that this perception was mere horse crap and that the numbers spoke for themselves: LJ is an Elite back plain and simple. Following those two great statistical years, LJ inexplicably proceeded to produce exactly 559 and 874 rushing yards over the next two seasons. But, how could this be? LJ is "elite", the numbers even say so, and the numbers are never wrong! Are they? How can an "elite" back become less than average in one season's time you ask? He didn't. He never was an elite back. He was a good back with a great OL and played in a system that suited his running style and he got the ball an average of 376 times a year during his two year tear. That's how he was PRODUCTIVE. Take away that OL, and suddenly he became UNPRODUCTIVE. He didn't become a less than average back, he just stopped PRODUCING.

So, while you rate your RBs by PRODUCTION (as so many ESPNers do), DJ rates his by who he'd rather have on his team when all the other variables are removed; when you disregard the number of carries, the quality of the OL, etc.

Me? I can honestly say that if Ronnie Brown were traded for any of the following RBs tomorrow I would not be disappointed (just sad ):
- Adrian Peterson
- Michael Turner (basing this on watching him run for years now; not stats)
- That's it!

 

i think this is exactly the argument that Parcells points to when it comes to paying a RB elite $$$$ .... get a good line and you can make a good RB look very good -- just look at DENs history.

statistcally speaking, we cannot at this time call Ronnie elite ... that is pretty clear.

out of any year, this is the year he must prove his worth -- its going into a contract year, and he has a real C in Grove; so the line won't be a scapegoat.

the one aspect that i question the most, is simply - can he carry the ball 20+ times a game for a whole season ?? since he hasn't, nor has he even come close ... until he proves otherwise - i have to believe that he can't ... or shouldn't. maybe he makes up for that with versatility ...

lastly though, if you wouldn't take AP straight up over Ronnie ... that is just stunning.

 

you totally just disregarding everything that myself and St. louisfinfan was trying to convey.

You say "statistically speaking, you cannot call ronnie elite"....I say, statistics do not change what my eye and instincts tell me..

You say.."Ronnie brown must prove his worth"....I say, ronnie has nothing to prove to me {he's healthy now}, i recognize what a talent he is, so i {if iam the gm} have to prove something to him, and thats putting the right variables around the talent that i know he has, hes already proved what he can do with below average variables. {bad coaching, bad oline}.

You say, because he hasnt carried the ball 20 times a game, he cant or he has to prove that he can..I say, those are formalities when projecting this mans talent, and iam confident that i have put good variables in place around him.

You say, its stunning that i would'nt take anyone else going into this year, not even AD..I say, thats right, with the direction that were going in this hybrid offense. I dont trust anyone more then i do ronnie brown...

If were talking about in a traditional sense, there are 2 guys guys that would make me sit up...AD and knowshon moreno.

 

Ronnie has elite ability, but until he's used in the same fashion that players like Peterson, LT, etc are being used by their respective teams, Ronnie can't be classified as an "elite player". Unfortunately no runningback is going to put up the same gaudy numbers that the top RB's of the league put up, we just don't have that type of offense.

 

L2G, how do you think ronnie brown is catergorized in the opposing teams film room? do you think they disregard the talent because of statistics? I dont understand how in one sentence you can call him an elite talent and then say he is not an elite player... injuries aside, its not the athletes fault that the athlete has'nt been exploited correctly, or that the talent has worked with subpar variables. I must think about those things when projecting the players future and production expectation.

I'll tell ya what i do see...A 230lb back with 4.5 speed with dancing feet, soft hands, the football iq and talent to handle a position that requires multi tasking at a hundred mph, a 27 year old multi dimensional running back that can catch the football, block, and run over mo fo's.

Let me put some variables around that kind of package, then we can find out what the difference between an elite talent and what an elite player is.

At some point, i either have the guts to sign him, based on projection of talent and proper variables , or, i risk losing him to free agency because i had to wait to see how that played out before i make moves..Iam sorry, thats now how i build a football team brother, they dont pay me to wait for results, they pay me to make the right projections.

 

dj, i agree with your stance about calling things as you see them ... i generally do much the same

i merely stated that Ronnie would not be considered elite by very many analysts - simply because of his statistics and overall production. i did not address the dangers he presents when he is on the field, or the game planning that coordinators must likewise do. most will agree that he does in fact have exceptional talent in addition to his versatility.

regardless, i will still take a productive year from him this year to warrant a big contract from us. Parcells won't pay premium $$$$ based solely on his talents ... it must be backed up with production.

this debate is akin to the Ginn one ... in that no matter what talent the player brings, exceptional as it may be .... it still comes down to production - regardless of the style of offense, injury history, touches, quality of supporting cast et all. don't get me wrong, i really like and appreciate Ronnie, he is tough and talented - but results are results.

 

alright then Phinanalyst, fair enough, but i have a question for you.. With where i see this franchise going and how were going about our business to get there, i'am not willing to risk ronnie brown to free agency...He is the ceterpiece to this offense moreso then anyone i can think of in the league. I know what he can do talent wise, variables are in place, and for me i dont have to wait to see what he can do, i already know, based on what my analysis and belief in my own talents tell me, i sign him before training camp...are you willing to take that risk and let him produce like you know he can?, cause if he does what we think he can do, theres a huge risk of losing the player, or paying the dear price after the fact.

 

Brother, take a deep breath

If you go back and read my posts on Ronnie you will see that I agree 100% with you. I don't believe that Ronnie is injury prone, he has just been a victim or 2 freak injuries. Ronnie is one of the strongest RB's in the league and one of the toughest to bring down. Ronnie has shown that he gets better as the game goes on, the more he gets the ball the more effective he is.

But....

When it comes to how the fans classify him and how stat monkeys view him, until he gets the same amount of carries and is able to put up the same numbers that an Adrian Peterson does, Ronnie isn't going to be an elite RB in their eyes. I can see the argument, until he does it, he isn't. I definitely think that Ronnie has elite talent and can be that type of back, but he's a part of a system, he's not going to get 300+ carries per season and it's pointless to make projections of stats because it's something that can't be proven.

If I'm running a football team, there is only one RB that I would choose above Ronnie (AP), other than that, I like what Brown brings to the team, the way he runs the ball and the attitude that he brings to the team.

I guess the easy answer is that I have a smaller list than most people of RB's that I think are "elite", there is Peterson, I still think LT is an elite back, and maybe Portis. Ronnie definitely falls into that 2nd tier of RB's, as does Marion Barber. I would actually take Brown and Barber over some of the names that other folks drool over, both players are top 5 RB's IMO.

 

Basically, what L2G said. Ronnie Brown can potentially be a great running back. I mean, really, how many running backs have the size and speed of Ronnie, IQ of Ronnie, soft hands of Ronnie, and blocking skills of Ronnie? He's a multi dimensional back.

BUT

Until he does it, I'm not ready to call him an elite back. The potential is there, but the results aren't.

 

StLouisFinFan, that Larry Johnson example was not a very good example. Couldn't you say that every running back in the league would produce results like LJ behind that terrible O-line? His stats prove that his O-line was horrible, not him. Also, he was run into the ground. You said it yourself, averaged 376 carries a year. That's a huge load on any running back.

 

dj, i would have to wait and see how this year turns out. Ronnie's added value is in the WC ... with White in the fold, his value or role might change. His talent of course remains the same - but again, it comes down to how much you are willing to pay for his talents vs the role he plays.

if he is not the centerpiece of the WC, and if he can't or shouldn't get 20+ touches a game ... just how much are you willing to pay him ? that is the question the FO needs to determine at the end of this year.

 

Actually, it was the perfect example who's point was missed. Yes, many backs would have had good PRODUCTION behind that KC line, IMO. That was the point. The controlling variable in that equation was the OL. When that variable changed (i.e. Roaf/Shields et.al retiring), the PRODUCTION changed. Moreover, this example suggests strongly (thus why it was a good example) that the RB is not always the controlling variable in a RB's production, and in many cases, it's the OL. And yet, despite this age old observation in football, people wanted to label LJ elite for one reason and one reason only, because he was STATISTICALLY PRODUCTIVE. This example points out just how fallable this line of reasoning is, similar to the fallacy being projected upon the STATISTICAL PRODUCTION of one Ronnie Brown. Now, in his case, it's not that he's statistically un-productive, he does have very good per catch and per carry numbers over his career. His problem is that he just hasn't gotten the requisite number of catches and/or carries of a long period of time to yield total yards commensurate with his talent level.

Furthermore, the one time in his short career in which a coach utilized him as the centerpiece of the offense (2007), Ronnie Brown went on a tear that made every fantasy footballer in the world wet their pants by leading the entire NFL in yards from scrimmage, including three consecutive games of more than 200 yards rushing/receiving. That year was cut short by his one and only major injury, but in terms of showing that "he can produce statistically", I would think an observant fan would have gotten the answer to the question at the center of this thread. No?

 

I think a lot of detractors are missing the point.

Yes, he excelled with WC. He also, when given the ball, he excelled as the feature back in a traditional run offense. So he fits into any offense you play.

He excels at receiving. He's fast. He's strong. He's hard to bring down. He rarely coughs the ball up. Other teams in our division, cringe when they have to tackle him. And not insignificantly, he's a non-diva, consummate team player.

His (lack of) stats are not due to him, they are due to the offense. Put him on any other team, that features an elite back, and he's the consensus #1 back in the league.

He is quite frankly, the perfect RB and far and away, the best player on the team, why the hell would we NOT lock him up for the rest of his career?

 

your taking a fans perspective, iam taking a GM's perspective.

 

I do not care as much about stats and how many carries Ronnie has. His stats are good for the amount of carries he has.

What I care about is what other teams say about Ronnie Brown. Bill Bellicheck said something along the lines of "Our game plan was to stop Ronnie Brown and we weren't able to do that."

That is all I need to know about Ronnie Brown. As long as teams are focusing most of their attention on him, he is an elite player on the team.

 

First of all I am thrilled Ronnie Brown is a Miami Dolphin. Couldn't be happier.

Second of all, Ronnie has never consistently made the plays AP has. Even in 2007 before the injury, the first two games he struggled. Again, maybe this is the year, but you really can't make an argument that Ronnie is the better back of the two at this point in time if we're speaking objectively.

 

I am a huge Ronnie Brown fan. I think Ronnie Brown is awesome! I think AP is special.

I believe that Ronnie Brown is an elite back and AP is ultra super mega elite. I feel AP will be a player mentioned with Jim Brown, Gayle Sayers, Jerry Rice, Brett Farve, Barry Sanders and the few other players that are just amazing. I love Ronnie Brown, I just don't see HoF in his future. I do in AP's. If injuries do not happen.

 

I can.

Ronnie was consistent, when he got the ball consistently. Dollars to donuts you swap RB & AP, AP would have RB stats & RB would have AP stats.

 

No, the first two games he split carries with Chatman...then Cam pulled his head out of his arse and went to Ronnie full time...and even with this two game drought of touches, after 7 games he was leading the entire NFL, AP included, in yards from scrimmage. I'm not saying he's better than AP, but you're not giving him his due either.

 

I would bet my next paycheck that if were to ever let RB go, BB and NE would be tripping over themselves to sign him...you can take that to the bank...and that is the best reflection of a players value/quality, how your opponent views you, not how ESPNers view you and your fantasy ratings.

 

I cant compare the two because i believe they both bring an entirely different set of skills to the table..

Is AD the best running back in the league?..yes, without question.

Is ronnie brown the best all around running back?...which is more important to us? relative to the offensive direction we are headed....

Iam too enamored with this hybrid to switch offensive philosophies and players.

 

I think this thread boils down to how you define elite. For myself, a player isn’t elite until he has shown it. You don’t really know until after the fact. How can you? Barry Sanders can retire, or Gale Sayers can blow out a knee. You can be elite one season and a nonplayer the next. Ronnie is good, good enough to be game planned for. But has he shown himself to be elite? Which single season would you say was a top 5 back season for him? (performance wise, not stats, and yes in football injuries count, no matter why they happen, no extra yards for a sprained ankle) I don’t think he’s had one, yet.

 

It's interesting you should bring up Sayers, because he's the quintesential case of being an elite player, even a HOF player, without having anywhere near the stats that other HOFers do. The record books don't say he was "elite", but every player who ever had to tackle him did. That's where a man makes his mark.

 

How i define elite...what my eyes tell me. Injuries i cannot control, if the player is 100 percent healthy, then its my eyes that determines whether to sign the player, not past statistics. I must extrapulate to some degree in combination with my eyes.

 

What has Ronnie done that compares to what Sayers did? Could Ronnie do it this year? Sure, but untill he does, how can you compare what Ronnie might do to what Sayers did?

 

His production changed because his O-line was terrible, and because he was coming off a 416 carry season. And it's not like he's still bad. He averaged 4.5YPC last season. That was better than Ronnie Brown, and his O-line was worse.

Stats are facts. And right now, the fact is Ronnie Brown is not putting up ELITE numbers. Does he have the potential? Of course. I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing whether he is elite right now.

 

I am taking a realistic perspective. When he touches elite numbers, then I'll call him elite.

 

Thank you.

 

I don't want anybody to think I hate Ronnie Brown. I don't. He is a top 10 running back, IMO. But I do not consider that elite. I consider a top 5 running back elite. Until Ronnie Brown shows me he is elite bu putting up those type of numbers, I would consider him a good to very good back. And there is nothing wrong with that.

 

Thats fine buddy..I disagree with your definition of elite but Really what iam talking about here is, whether or not he should be signed to an extension early...Imo, Your realistic perspective just may get you to lose the player.

Its contract time next year....you either go on your projection and sign him early because your confident in what he can do on the football field and how that benefits the franchise, or you wait til the end of the year and play with fire.

This is a business of projection and risk, and once again, i know what i have in a healthy ronnie brown right now, I dont need to wait, He fits with us perfectly on all levels.