New: Tim Tebow, the Wildcat.....and New England

Yeah. I guy I was gonna use would be Steve McNair. How much of a project was he when he was drafted by Tennessee.

 

That stuff happens.

I think hand strength is an overlooked component. If your hands are big but weak does it matter that your hands are big?

 

Yes, I think that it does matter. You have to be able to grip a football properly in order to throw it with velocity. Add rain to the equation and you've got a potentially big problem- note the pros wiping down the balls and trying to get new balls into the game in rainy, muddy weather- it's a problem. And I would say that hand size is more imprtant that hand strength. F=MA - you have to get velocity going to throw a baseball, football, blast a serve in tennis, etc. If you watch, for expample Dan Marino throw a football or Boris Becker crush a serve, there's a snap that delivers the power and velocity, and inside out movement akin to a screwball in baseball terms. It's tough to grip a football well enought to do that when it's wet or muddy, and having large hands helps. There are reasons why pro scouts pay attention to hand size on QBs, no doubt about it.

 

You too Keypusher.

 

So the answer to my question was........

 

I watch Tebow play a lot, so what's your point?

 

The answer is really a question- what is your point? UF uses a spread offense and Tebow is often working out of the shotgun and has to make timing throws to spread the defense horizontally. BFD- again, what's your point? He apparently did it well enough to beat out Bradford as player of the game, and more specifically he CAN make the timing throws, outs, mid-range throws, the deep throws which he has good touch on, etc. If you have a point somewhere do tell and please back it up.

I know how much guys like you are into stats, so here are some for you to chew on:

Tim Tebow #15 QB

2008 STATS
RATING YARDS TOUCHDOWNS
172.40 2,747 30

Stats Overview Passing
YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2006 22 33 358 66.7 10.85 55 5 1 0 201.73
2007 234 350 3286 66.9 9.39 66 32 6 13 172.47
2008 192 298 2747 64.4 9.22 70 30 4 15 172.40

 

So the answer to the question is, Tebow is a spread QB, Bradford isn't.

I think that's what you were looking for.

Have a look for the stats of Ty Detmer whilst he was at BYU, then lets talk about his NFL career.

 

You know better than that- what is far more relevant in my mind is the play of Tebow as compared to Bradford. You can honestly watch that game and tell me that Bradford is a #1 caliber pick and you wouldn't touch Tebow until the 4th round?

You keep focusing on Tebow playing in a spread offense, and I keep telling you that I really don't give a crap. My question to you is, how does Bradford playing out of shotgun almost all of the time effect your draft rating of him?

 

I guess we wont find out for another year as Tebow has just annouced he is staying at UF for another year

 

I think that is good news Derek, thanks

 

Good for him. Hopefully Urban Meyer works with him next year and they both try to alleviate the overhanging concerns. If he were to become a high pick and a multi millionaire, I can't think of anyone more likely to do some good in the world with that kind of money than him.

 

No. What's more relevant is that it's college football and it's systems. Sam Bradford is an NFL calibre QB. Tim Tebow is a like Major Harris and Steve Taylor and Charlie Ward and Tommie Frazier; system QB's. He jut happens to be the best of them.

I wouldn't judge the future NFL careers of Bradford and Tebow on that game anyway.

Bradford can play under center; he doesn't have 5 receivers out on routes every down, hence he's not got multiple looks and guys open every down. Bradford works his progressions better, gets the ball out quicker, is much more accurate despite having less targets and thus less of a target area. Et cetera. The shotgun didn't affect my draft rating of Jay Cutler and it won't affect my rating of Sam Bradford.

 

All of that makes sense and is fair enough. Our diffrernce of opinion lies in perceptions of what, arm wise, Tebow can and can't do, and how he will or will not be able to adapt to NFL defenses and offensive responsibilites, ie reading defenses, etc. The folly of this whole thing is that our collective opinions aren't worth the price of a cup of coffee- eventually we'll see what becomes of Tebow, and that will be that.

 

My point is that Tebow is an accurate passer. I don't know what your opinion is about his accuracy, but if you don't think he's an accurate passer then I disagree with you. Is that clear?

 

This debate is never going to end because from drive to drive his play changes all the time.So he gives everyone a'lot of reasons to like and dislike him as a future pro.

He has about 4 or 5 very bad passes every game, then he'll lead his team down the field like Chad does 4 or 5 times a game as well.

Any team that wants a born leader like Chad will love this kid,but odds are your going to have to live with his boneheaded plays " see favre " as well.

 

The hiring of new quarterbacks coach Scot Loeffler also played into the decision, Tebow said.
Loeffler, who was quarterbacks coach for the Detroit Lions in 2008, could help Tebow develop the skills he needs to play quarterback in the NFL. Loeffler helped coach Miami Dolphins rookie Chad Henne and New England Patriots star Tom Brady while at the University of Michigan.
He also developed a strong relationship with Tebow during Tebow's college recruitment. Their relationship has come full circle, with Tebow helping recruit Loeffler to Florida to replace Dan Mullen, who is now the head coach at Mississippi State.
"Coach Meyer really trusted me a lot with being in on that," Tebow said. Loeffler "is the best in the country, he's the best there is, and I'm excited about it."


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/dolphins/content/sports/epaper/2009/01/11/a1c_gators_0112.html

 

I'll add my 2 cents to this since Tebow has been on my mind after the most ridiculous verbal felatio that was performed on one player that I've ever heard from a broadcasting crew. "Spend 5 min. with Tebow and your life will be better for it." LMFAO.... most ridiculous thing ever and that was just one comment out of a gameful of non stop Tebow. Bradford was an afterthought and he was the Heisman trophy winner.

First off, to draft a player so highly for the specific purpose of enhancing a "wrinkle" of our offensive game plan would be absurd.

Secondly, we've heard nothing but praise from the coaching staff publicly and from "inner sources" for Henne and their projection that he has the tools to be a very good NFL QB. That alone to me, rules out our FO staff even considering Tebow. THat's even IF they really see him as a sold NFL QB prospect.

Thirdly, many have brought up some really good reasons as to why there are doubts to the way Tebow plays the game and how well that will translate to the NFL. I agree with them. Problem with all these "dual threat" QB's is that they usually don't spend enough time perfecting their craft as a QB to make a difference at the next level where an "open WR" is much different then an "open WR" when Florida is playing Southern Miss.

Michael Vick was going to revolutionize the NFL and the QB position wasn't he?

 

It's clear, but it isn't true.

 

X2....

 

Don't get me wrong; I'm a Gators fan...
Tebow takes an awful lot of snaps out of the shotgun. The original idea behind developing this formation was to give the QB more time to pass.
Tebow's wind ups and throws are s-l-o-w.
Every year you read about rookies being asked the question, how is the NFL different from college. They always reply the speed of the game.
Maybe I'm being overly simplistic in my view. But to me that says alot as to Tebow's chances of success at QB in the NFL.

 

Statistically, most people would consider a 65% comp. percentage as accurate. That is a true fact. It also a fact that he throws very few interceptions whether pressured or not. You may be of the opinion that those only occur b/c of the offense he plays in or b/c of the talent around him or whatever but it can't be proven as true. The most you could do is find some video of Tebow throwing an inaccurate pass (like you could of any QB) and that could be countered by the many examples of Tebow passing through some very tight windows, even under pressure. Having watched just about every snap he's taken as a Gator I can say with confidence that there are far more examples of the latter than the former.

 

It's quite clearly true that a) you're biased and b) that the system enables him to complete more passes.

Surely you have to see that the spread skews the completion rate. 65% is actually pretty low given the system. And how can't it be proven true? Look at the completion percentage of another high profile spread QB whose team actually does less motion and moving than Florida, Graham Harrell of Texas Tech.

 

Or even Chase Daniel of Missouri while I'm thinking about it. Daniel's completion percentage out of the spread is 72%. Tebow's is 64%. I don't have Daniel marked out as the next Jay Cutler. If you're struggling to complete 65% of your passes out of a wide open offense which, since time immemorial has skewed the stats of the QB's running it, then you're going to be in trouble in the NFL, especially when you have a very pedestrian release and you don't use thinsg like your feet to the best of your ability to deliver the ball with better velocity and better accuracy.

Those my friend, are true facts.

 

I am biased. I'm biased against spread QBs in the NFL. But every time I try to discount Tebow as just another spread QB who can only throw to wide open receivers he makes a throw that I didn't think he could make. I see him complete throws to well covered recievers. I see him make quick reads and throw into tight windows. I see him drop back and make quick three steps, plant your back foot and throw type passes. The offense he's in doesn't ask him to do it often but if you watch enough UF football they do it occasionally. I assumed (like I'm guessing most do) that they don't do it b/c Tebow wasn't capable. That assumption was proven incorrect as I've seen him do it successfully. In fact, they were successful almost every time they asked him to do that. So much so that I was calling for them to use a more conventional offense early in the year when the offense wasn't as prolific.

Now IMO Tebow will struggle with timing. He simply wasn't asked to do it enough for me to feel otherwise. But I can't say he can't complete those kinds of passes anymore b/c I've seen him do it too many times. I can't say he's inaccurate b/c I've seen him throw into too many tight windows. From watching his games he completed probably a third of his passes Murphy and Hernandez. These guys are not the speedsters you see running wide open in the Big 12. (Murphy is allegedly fast but most of his catches seem to be in traffic). These are guys that use their body position to screen out defenders. You need accurate throws to complete these passes. And that's what I see Tebow do.

So, yes I am biased. And so are most NFL scouts when looking at a QB that seems different from the prototype. But I've seen Tebow do enough prototypical things to not discount him out of hand.

 

1. Faith
2. Family
3. Education
4. Football

If that is a flaw then sign me up.

 

Look at the completions that Tebow makes compared to Daniels and the other Big 12 QBs. UF doesn't run a conventional spread. IMO their passing attack isn't as developed as a Texas Tech or Missouri type attack. UF does a great job with the run game of causing confusion but not as much with their passing game. Maybe it's the offense or maybe it's more NFL style defenses in the SEC but for whatever reason I don't see the Gator wrs running free like I do in many spreads. So I don't think Tebow gets as much of a bump in his stats as some of those other spread QBs get.

As for his footwork and release, I agree they need improvement but they are correctable with hard work. And when you have a player with legendary drive and work ethic those flaws wouldn't be enough to make say he can't be successful in the NFL.

 

Game, set, match.

 

Raf, I've known you a long time and I respect your opinion on this and moreso respect the fact that you've actually seen the games. But let me start by asking you; what offense is Tebow going to run in the NFL? I mean, could he run Philly's offense? What about in Carolina? Could he run the Jets offense?

The only offense he could run with any measure of success is the Patriots. Why? Because it's a spread attack. It spreads defenses out, it creates openings for QB's which wouldn't be there in other offenses, it uses all sorts of misdirection and trickeration and underneath stuff and picks and reverses. It sends 5 receivers out on every down, often with a man motioning as if they're going to take a handoff. What is the knock on effect to the defense? With 5 receivers on each play, linebackers are substituted for defensive back. And what does that mean? Well it means that you're essentially relying on two things: a) that your corners can cover and b) that you're leaving yourself open because you're continually expecting 4 men to get to the QB on every down because you can't afford to blitz people or leave people in to rush for fear of getting burned.

Now I'm with you; I have also seen Tebow make accurate throws. I've also seen him step into his passes and do it. But I haven't seen him do it with anything approaching the sort of consistency of mechanics and the consistency of accuracy that's required to be succesful in the NFL. And it's all well and good these cod wanabees coming out and saying that in a year he'll be fine to run this offense and in a day his footwork will be straightened out and his arm strength will get better and this and that. Fact is, if he's struggling at 64% accuracy in the most wide open spread out attack in modern college football, then how's he genuinely going to work out in Philadelphia when he's playing the Giants in the Meadowlands in a WC offense with 2 wideouts and a TE and a FB in the pattern and with Tuck and Umenyiora and Kiwanuka and Cofield and Robbins and Pearce all coming for him? And with Blackburn uncovered and Kenny Phillips uncovered, not weighed down by being in man coverage?

I've seen Florida 6 or 7 times minimum this season and I still have Thursday's National Title game to watch. I saw the same number last season. Too many times the footwork goes. Too many times he should hit wide open receivers with NFL throws - and let's just be clear here, not every college throw is an NFL throw - I saw him hit Louis Murphy in stride down the field against Alabama. Great throw. Ball looked like a wobbling duck that Phil Nethro would have been jealous of, but he got it in there in man coverage. But he also had an age to do it because Bama could only rush 4. They had McClain and Hightower running round underneath and they had Rashad Johnson and Justin Woodall in coverage. With pressure, with that very slow delivery, it's just not happening. In the same game, 1st half, may even have been 1st quarter, around the 25 yard line, to the end of the field where George Teague stripped the ball away from Lamar Thomas.....he steps up in the pocket, has a man wide open down the seam and with no pressure he flat out misses. You can't do that at the next level.

You take a guy like Bradford who plays from the shotgun, but who's percentage is up around 70%. Same for Colt McCoy who plays in a timing offense. Like I said, Harrell's is almost 71%. Chase Daniel, who no-one is mistaking as an NFL QB is throwing at almost 73% in a very similar offense to Florida's; lots of motion, 5 wideouts, etc. But the difference is that Daniel throws down the field more. And it's not like Chase is a statue back there. Dude has a set of wheels, so teams have to try and play him honestly, much the way they do with Tebow. And we're seriously not trying to argue that Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, Tommy Saunders, Denario Alexander, et al are in the same class as Mark Ingram, Jeff Demps, Percy Harvin , Louis Murphy, Aaron Hernandez are we?

You talk about Murphy; 4.38 speed and Hernandez; the top rated sophomore tight end who's no slouch, catching 1/3 of his passes. Again, Chase Daniel.....aside from Maclin and Coffman....which Big 12 speedsters are we talking about here?

Yes Tim is a legendary college football QB. So much fun to watch, the greatest college football player I've known. But having studied the draft for 22/3 years, I also know what constitutes an NFL QB. And at the moment, Tim doesn't. He doesn't know how to deal with consistent pressure, his delivery is far too slow because he'll have corners and safeties jumping routes, and if his feet and mechanics are problematic now, what are they going to be like facing the sort of pressure that Chad faced against the Ravens for example?

There is a reason Michael Vick and Vince Young didn't revolutionise the NFL the way many predicted. Young WON a National Title, Vick lost one against FSU, but neither has been a success in the NFL; both have better arms, both have better feet, both had quicker deliveries, all three have similar accuracy. I wish Tim well, but I just don't see it CONSISTENTLY enough and God only knows what sort of offense it would be in.

 

It's an amazing offense. But if his passing game isn't as far along as Chase Daniels' who is an 8% completion rated better passer with less weapons, and we're not mistaking Chase as an NFL QB, just what are we saying about Tim's chances? Missouri and Tech don't really HAVE run games so teams are EXPECTING Daniel and Harrell to throw. And STILL they complete more passes??

 

I don't expect Tebow to revolutionize the NFL. I think it's evolving on it's own. I don't see the wildcat as a one year flash. I think it's going to be around for a while b/c it's effective. (And with that rumor about the Dolphins looking at Pat White it would appear that Parcells may agree). I expect that more teams will incorporate spread tendencies. These offenses we're seeing in college are the future of the NFL. What kind of players do you think the colleges are looking for? IMO they are looking for the next Tebow. As they find and develop more of these types of QBs, what kind of QBs do you think the NFL will be drafting? You ask me what offense will Tebow run in the NFL and my answer is the next one.

If you asked me if Tebow would work in the NFL of 10, even 5 years ago I would agree with you and say no way. In fact, I did say that about Mcnabb. He was too inconsistent with his accuracy, he pulled it down too quick and even though Syracuse was a passing offense it was school yard, no sense of timing.

And I don't think Tebow would be ready in a year. I said three years. IMO that should be the default for any of these shotgun QBs. The transition to being under center has proven to be quite difficult for most QBs. It seems to throw off the timing and slow down their reads. IMO that has made busts out of many of these young QBs from prolific offenses. Fortunately, Tebow has some other skills so he wouldn't have to spend those three years just taking up bench space.

Bradford and McCoy are in timing offenses. That makes them more NFL ready and also pumps up their numbers. Tebow is not in a timing offense. That's why I think he will struggle there. But the few times he's been asked to throw on time he has demonstrated ability. Does he show enough consistency? No, he doesn't but that can be learned and he has demonstrated the ability to be coachable and to work hard. His mechanics have already improved considerably from last year to this. I don't see how anyone can say they can't continue to improve.

And while I agree that his release is slow, I don't think it's as slow as Leftwich and Vick. Leftwich was a decent QB at first and then his lack of mobility became even worse after that leg injury. Vick made it as far as the NFC championship game. So I don't see how anyone can say that he didn't have success. Young was a different issue. He had accuracy but apparently can only throw accurately to guys standing still. He also seems to lack character and the ability to read defenses. Tebow has deficiencies as well but his deficiencies are different and correctable. I don't think it's accurate to just look at these guys and think there is any correlation to what success Tebow may have.

 

IMO that's apples to oranges. Timing offenses pump up your numbers as does the defense they were going against.

 

Do you see some Drew Brees in Harrell?

 

But that's what a lot of people said about Vince Young. Even when he played poorly in Tennesee, he was hailed by a lot of people as the next coming because "he wins ballgames."

 

What a load of horse****. Yeah, it comes down to that- sure. Yu might as well draft Chase Daniel ahead of Tebow using that logic. Good luck with that.

 

Given that Tebow is playing in a wide open offense and STILL completing just 64% of his passes, you can easily deduct 7-10% for running a pro style attack. That puts him at what, 54%.

No QB is going to last in the pros completing 54% for very long.

 

I think your concerns are unfounded Travis. This sort of life priority is in my mind exactly what I would want to see with anyone I was investing in. To me, those items make him VERY desirable.. anyone who thinks these life priorities are a problem in any endeavour is missing the boat. This is just my honest opinion.

generally speaking here;

I think it speaks volumes of bad things about a person that would denigrate anyones missionary work to create an issue.. I say to them, why not share with us what YOU have done for your fellow man before you belittle another's effort.

back to Trav;

For all those priorities, how many times did they interfere with his college carreer?? so why invent an issue to worry about that was never an issue in college and IMO, doesn't exist for the pros?