I know the first person who reads this will say don't get overly excited, take it one game at a time, overconfident or too happy about this team and I can understand that because I think the same way. However, you have to wonder, how good is this team? Can they go anywhere? Playoffs? The Dolphins are sitting at 5-4 right now, with a couple impressive wins and a let down win. That loss occurred a few weeks ago and this team has corrected their mistakes, weekly. The coaching staff, headed by Tony Sparano, have done a great job of patching up holes that have been exposed in wins and losses. In the first two weeks of the season, we had 12 penalties total. The two weeks following we have 6 total. Our base offense run game struggles in the first two weeks of the season, our leading rushers were 24 and 28 yards in the first two games. The next two games, the Wildcat is brought into the gameplan and the leading rushers have 113 yards and 125 yards. We get exposed by an all-pro WR in Andre' Johnson in the Houston game and then the secondary fixes up with Andre' Goodman playing at a high level, Jason Allen playing pretty well and Will Allen locking down his guy. They have even made Will Allen catch a ball. Point is that this whole coaching staff, much like New England's, knows how to patch up holes for the short term and work with what they have. They have our guys playing at a high level, Greg Camarillo, Chad Pennington, the DL, the OL, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams today, Ted Ginn, Channing Crowder, and Yeremiah Bell. All guys are playing good right now. They have turned over more than half of the roster in less than one year and are sitting above .500 just over the mid-season mark. We're +8 in turnover differential. As I mentioned in another thread, the best teams in the NFL last year averaged approximately 32 minutes of possession a game and the Dolphins are sitting at 31:19. Historically, teams that are in the Super Bowl have a yard per pass average of 7.5 and the Dolphins have one of 7.9. Our Quarterback is averaging 66% per completion which I believe is the highest in the league. We are one of the best in terms of turnovers committed. Many NFL coaches consider a percentage of 37 on third down conversions as very good. The Dolphins are at 34%. Not much is bad right now. Outside of Special Teams and third down conversions longer than seven yards, the team is looking pretty good. The base run offense is struggling but with the single-wing like formation involved in game plans, the rush offense is producing some. With all that said, can this team make the playoffs and possibly win a game?
Yes we can. I'm speaking on more than a "it's possible". It's probable. We're on a three game streak right now. That's momentum for us. We've got two games at home. That's momentum. Those teams are going to be clawing. The raiders gave the panthers trouble today at points and you know NE is pissed because of the wildcat; but they're coming to OUR HOUSE and OUR FANS. Pennington said in the postgame that the fans were loud and quite possibly caused a few false start penalties. If we're that loud we're getting to be the twelve man.. and I think as it has been posted elsewhere that is partially what this team needs. Not only in the stadiums but in posts like the one you made. They need confidence all around. They believe in themselves and you can tell by how they're coming away with wins. We need to believe, too. There's more but I think you get my point. EDIT: to speak of the talent to the team yes. It seems like if one area is lagging (usually special teams or the secondary or something like that) another part steps up and helps them along. ex. the 9 minute drive by our offense against the seahawks.
How good is Miami? Better then average. I'm excited about 5-4 (that Houston game still kills me), but I'm putting this into prospective. We struggle to run the ball consistently. Until we can, we have hit our ceiling on offense. Our defense is getting better. We're "finishing" on that side of the ball. I don't know how much better we can be. This D is very reminiscent of 06. Can we make the playoffs? Sure. Look at the schedule. Can we do anything in the playoffs? Not unless we can run the ball with consistency.
They are on the verge. At 5-4 they could just as easily be 7-2 (jets & texans) or 2-7 (seahawks, broncos, chargers) The difference is they are finishing games where they didn't in the past. I think a few of the wins they got this year would have been losses in prior years the game clinching drives and in today's case the last defensive stand are where they are going to separate from the dismal recent history. Looking at the rest of the season, knowing how they have played this season they can win every one of the remaining games (not saying they will) but I know they can if they play the way they are capable. 7 games left. I would be thrilled if they could sweep the rest of the division games and split the other 4 ending with a 5-2 run and a 10-6 season. Considering the teams they have beaten this year there isn't a team in the league that I don't think they can beat.
Other than the Arizona game, we looked decent in every game. I think we hae improved enough on offense and defense that we can beat any team in the league,,,,but we also can get beat by anyone if we go through the motions and don't focus. I think we let up after we went up 14-0 today, but our defense limited them to a lot of FGs instead of TD's. We have improved a great deal but I think we have to get better if we are going to be a playoff caliber team.
Well brother, ive been sittin here thinkin about your question, heres what i came up with, If this team can make it to the jet game with the chance to control their fate, i have confidence that they will play well on the road in that game...the result of it iam not concerned with as long as they play well. can they win it? hmmmmm, it would be a monumental task to ask for considering who they will be facing {brett farve}. from now moving forward those are my hopes and realistic expectations...to make it to that game and play well. If we can accomplish that there will be no pressure on us whatsoever.
Im still undecided. I know were good. I just don't know if we're playoff good yet. If yesterdays game is any indication, I think we may loose to one of these so called easy teams coming up. My concern is that were just too inconsistent. One week we come out and dominate, the next were just hanging on. Sure thats "normal" for the NFL, but its a concern i think. Had we found a way to beat houston, and the Jets in week one.. leaving us at 7 and 2 right now, id be all over this playoff talk. Thinking about it this way, if we win out, but loose to the Pats and Jets... that puts us at what... 9 and 7? thats just not going to get it done. Plus theres still a tough Bills team to play in there as well. I can't see us winning all 3 of those games against our division rivals. Id love to see it though. Only time will tell... Before I start thinking of these guys as a playoff team though, we need a few more weeks, with wins to come along.
The coaching staff has done great patching up every weakness EXCEPT special teams coverage. I'm sure they are working on it, but not there yet.
Well, yesterday's win was one of a different color...both Seattle and Miami players knew that Miami should win that game and we managed to pull it out, despite Seattle re-exposing our weaknesses in the short passing game and return coverage. You nailed the positives about this team. The one thing that you failed to mention, although anyone who's watched this team sees it and knows it, is that the individual players on this team believe in themselves, each other and the coaching staff. That is why they are 5-4 and on an upswing. Not because they have more talent than many of the other teams, but because they believe in each other and are playing like they are capable of winning every game, despite their discrepancies. Additionally, as I mentioned briefly, this coaching staff knows how to prepare the team to play each week. What this team is learning is that each individual is capable of playing in this league and being successful. By passing the baton to different players each week, they are all learning that they can make a difference...We all know the story here, this week it was Ricky, last week Camarillo, one week Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, Joey Porter...etc, etc... Each week, another young player is learning that they can be successful and together, their doing the job...and being successful. I don't believe this is random or unplanned. I believe each week, they have a plan to expose more and more of this team and building on what we've done to propel this team forward... This said, I still think this can only take us so far. I still think that our OL is not getting the job done consistently enough to get us to the playoffs or to win anything in the playoffs. I still think the D is too soft in the pass rush category and tho the secondary has been playing well of late, there just isn't a difference maker back there. This isn't the G-men where they learned to win on the fly last season. They had one thing that we don't have...more and better talent... I do however, feel confident that we'll get there, just not this season... This team is going to be formidable at some point in time, but it is coming along faster than I (or many of us) expected...Can we make the playoffs this year...based on schedule and the coaching staff's ability...sure, but we still have to not only build on what we've done, but not digress any from where we are now...can we get far in the playoffs with this group...I just don't think so...
Personally I am not sure what this team will do to close out the season. They have the ability to go 5-2 in their last 7 games to get to 10-6 which is where a team will have to be to make the AFC playoffs but I don't see that happening. Honestly my goal is to see this team get to at least 8-8 so its not a losing season and build from there. At the end of the year I think that Texans game is going to haunt this team in their nightmares. The one shot this team has of making the playoffs is to take the division because now the wildcard race looks to be out of the question.
I definitely think the playoffs are within our grasp. The more that I look at it, the game against the Jets could be the difference maker. I am kinda worried that our special teams are not putting it together right now. I do not think this game was as close as the score indicates, if we did not give them awesome starting field position.
We're above average. We have some holes but so does every other team in the AFC. I think it's probable that we'll make the playoffs and once in there's no AFC team we can't beat. On the other hand, anyone of those AFC playoff teams could beat us as well. Right now I'd guess that there's about a 75% chance we'll make the playoffs and in the playoffs we'd have about a 50% chance we'd win a game.
I'm just enjoying them being competitive again. I still say without a doubt that they have too many holes and weaknesses to be a playoff contender. We all knew that already going into the season though so it certainly won't be a dissapointment if they don't make the playoffs.
it's been a great season for sure. And it feels good to be a winner again. I almost forgot what it felt like. Are we a playoff team? Absolutely IMO. But I also understand that we are a very young team who may run into some issues over the next 7 weeks. I personally think we could go either way, playoffs or not. I know a lot of you won't agree with me, but it's a win-win situation in my eyes. Obviously making the playoffs would be beyond awesome. But if we were to miss the playoffs and still finish with 8-10 wins, that would be an amazing accomplishment based on where this team was not even a year ago, and that would set the tone for next year and beyond.
Yes we can make the playoffs, but I think to win anything, we'd have to take the division and have a home game. If we end up as a wild card - while that would be amazing in and of itself, I think it'd be tough to win. Let's look at it this way. Let's give Tenn home-field, and presume we don't win the division. Right now, it be between the Steelers/Ravens and AFC East Champ for the 2 seed. Let's say it goes to the AFC East champ. That would mean a game on the road in either Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Denver presuming they hold on to their division. Now, on paper, we could beat these teams (obviously Denver, w/ a cleaner game - possibly B-more, and Pittsburgh is a mirror image of B-more kind of). But I think given the cold weather of all three spots, in January .... it'll be tough. Not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on us. Or, let's say Pittsburgh/B-more get the 2 seed. We'd then have to travel to likley the Meadowlands, or Foxboro. Sure, we dominated in NE this year, but January is different, especially against THAT team. And is there a tougher place for us to play besides the Meadowlands??? Now, if we win the division, who knows, we could even end up with a bye! A bit much to count on at this point, of course, but it's not impossible! But even if we're the 3rd or 4th seed, we'd be hosting one of those aforementioned teams, and I'd feel decent about our chances at home, even if we hosted Indy. That said - let's be honest w/ each other. If we make the playoffs, and lose 21-0, after a few days, I think we'd all be very satisfied!!
I would agree, but I think our schedule just gives us an excellent chance at 10 wins. I think yesterday's win will be a wake-up call to not take anyone likley, and - believe it or not - I think we have a shot in Buffalo/Toronto now, when I had figured that game as a loss. If we had teams like the Titans, Colts, Steelers on our schedule the rest of the way, I'd be worried. But - presuming we come to play against the Raiders, Rams, Niners and the improving Chiefs, that could be nine right there. If we blow any of those, oh well, but I think we'll be favored in each right now.
Great posts by all you guys. I agree that this season has already been a success and any more wins than six (what I thought we would win) would be icing on the cake. I think the team can get there and I think there's a real possibility we will get in as rafael said. I want to compare this team to another Pennington led one and that's the 2002 Jets. Those Jets went 9-7 behind Pennington's efficient play and their defense in a competitive division that featured four teams above .500. Pennington had only six picks that year and completed 68% of his passes. They had a struggling run game that averaged 4.0 yards per carry between their two headed duo of LaMont Jordan and Curtis Martin. They had Laverneus Coles put up a 1200 yard season and Wayne Chrebet went for 600+ yards. We don't have that type of player yet but Camarillo is on pace for 960 while Ginn is on pace for 860+. The Jets had one guy with double-digit sacks in John Abraham and the next closest was Josh Evans with 6. The Dolphins have one guy with double-digit sacks in Joey Porter and the next closest is Matt Roth, Vonnie Holiday, Randy Starks and Kendall Langford with 2 each. The Jets had 15 interceptions that year and we have 7 after nine games. I don't expect us to get eight interceptions but coming into the Seattle game, we did have 12 takeaways in the last three games. In that 2002 season, the Jets made it to the AFC Wild Card game and won it but lost in the Divisional playoffs to Oakland. As Sparano says, why not us?
I agree alan, why not us? Also to rocky, it's a win win situation two fold. Not only do I think it sets the tone if we do make the playoffs but bow out and if we do unfortunately go in the opposite direction we'll get better draft picks. not that anyone plays for picks but at least we have a first and two second rounders to compensate for what many thought was going to be a crappy year in the first place.. outside the team anyway.
this team is making a statement, its young though and if they do make the playoffs i don't think they'll go far. i always hope though. next year when they mature i think they'll make a strong run.
This is a great post, dead on analysis IMO. Whats exciting about this team is that they are a team that has players that are realizing their potential as individuals while winning. They seem to be all ascending in their developement...sign of great coaching, letting them find their games while getting them in position to win. Still need one more season to add some speed and explosiveness on defense and some upgrades along the Oline I knew when donald thomas went out that it would be as serious as we all expected.
We need to take the wins we should get and tuck them away in the confidence bin for later retrieval. This team has many area's to work on, namely Run-blocking and pass defense. ST is a given but MUCH Kudos goes to Sparano!
in All likely hood we are going to be in last place in the East. Im guessing 9-7 record and looking outside the playoffs this year.. We could somehow piece together a 10-6 season but I have a feeling the Jets will get that last wild card spot due to Brett Farve.. Say what you will ut I think thats what will happen. New England wins the division, Buffalo or Jets in 2nd and 3rd and us in forth. But any given sunday we could finsihs in second place as well. That all said a 9-7 10-6 season from this team is WAYYYYYYYYYYY over what anyone expected and it's not a let down to me at all. Sure would be nice to sneak in the playoffs even if for 1 game this year, but its a great start to a new franchise and we will be getting some nice free agents next year. People will want to be on the team now!
This team has surprised the heck out of me so far and already surpassed the win total that I gave them in the preseason (4), so whatever they can do from this point forward is icing on the cake. I'm not thinking playoffs, I just want to see improvement from week to week.
