99 mil

I’m ALMOST of the same mindset. Rip that mother fooking band aid off and take the pain in 2026.

The only reason I’m not COMPLETELY in that mindset, I see the POSSIBILITY of someone willing to trade for Tua, even if it’s a future conditional 6th round pick for 2027. If we could get a quarterback weak team like the Cardinals, Raiders, Jets, Falcons, Titans, Saints to bite and give Tua a “second chance”, that would alleviate a lot of the cap burden. Not all, but a lot of it. That would be IDEAL but will it happen? More than likely not.

 

There is value in making a decision and sticking to it. Waiting for the optimal path to open up has the risk of losing the opportunity to take other paths while waiting as well as the risk of the optimal path not coming to fruition.

 

Oh I agree but that "deadline" if you will hasn't come to pass yet. If we cut Tua prior to June 1st, we're ripping that band aid off. Its only February so there is still time to pursue other possibilities.

But this right here should be sending a strong message to Tua. The phones aren't ringing off the hook with other opportunities for him. If he plans on continuing a career in the NFL, he needs to work his asteroid off. He'll need to be twice as good just to be good enough.

But if nothing looks like its going to come to fruition by draft day, expect to see him cut then.

 

It seems like keeping Tua in 2026 will be the difference between winning 3-4 games versus 1-2 without that extra cap space. Cut Tua this year and avoid having that situation fester. Play Ewers and a bunch of rookies/UDFAs.

Miami would end up picking top 3 in the 2027 draft, maybe even getting the #1 pick. Combine that with lots of cap space and the rebuild could actually succeed this time.

 

I agree, it ultimately all comes down to Tua proving that the 2025 season was a fluke due to injury, coaching, or whatever. The tape doesn't lie though and he's going to have to come back better than ever to prove the doubters wrong.

Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No, because he has to prove it in the offseason.

I think we'll ultimately cut him and eat the 99M dead cap. Or we'll keep him and try to make him a serviceable QB for 2026, simply because that's the most cap-friendly path.

Or maybe we're smart and try to restructure his contract with an extra year or two added. That would explain why we haven't said anything outwardly negative about Tua...it's in our best interests to convince him to work with us. And honestly, it's in his best interests as well if he ever wants to land on a 2nd team. He needs that "prove it" year just as much as we do.

I don't see anything happening before June 1st though unless it's a trade or a restructure. And I can't imagine who would trade for him unless it's the Cardinals for their inept QB Murray and his huge contract (not as big as Tua's though). I'm not big on trading Tua AND paying a hefty portion of his contract; there's no direct benefit for 2026.

 

I get ya Key but if we could trade him and pick up any draft pick, with Sullivan and Hafley stating they want to rebuild through the draft, every pick is crucial.

 

That's true, but in this instance it would be trading money for a draft pick. There's no way he gets traded at his current salary without us incentivizing it, so how much of his contract would we pay...and for a pick in what round?

For instance, would Miami paying $30-40M of his contract be worth a 3rd rounder in compensation? I honestly don't know the answer to that.

 

Let the blood letting begin.

 

True when you look at the contract. Must admit Mc D got the most out of him but I n the end it was all razzle dazzle and no long term formula,especially when on the road. The dumbest move was the extension. That's why firing the GM came but years to late.

 

I don't think that drafting him was the worst mistake, but extending him absolutely was. If you watch his Dolphins tape from 2021-2023, he was a different player in the offense and moved like a smooth, balanced QB. That's completely gone now and to be honest, a lot of it was gone when we extended him.

Seriously, watch the tape...any random game from 2021 will do. You'll be shocked by how much his movement has declined.

I hope we find a way to trade him and his Miami saga ends this year. And hey, I hope he finds that younger Tua somewhere and completely balls out for awhile. I don't think it's possible though, I think his limitations are mental and that's so much harder to fix.

 

Tua wasn’t one of the worst draft picks. Nowhere near it. Where Grier screwed the pooch was never building a complete offense, before and after drafting Tua. And that’s not necessarily due to Tua’s injury risk, it’s the fact that Grier cared more about fancy shiny pieces rather than basics. Had Grier focused on basics…

We could have drafted any quarterback in that draft and with a complete offense, the quarterback would have had the opportunity to play well, including Tua.

Now I knew Tua wouldn’t have a long career in the league and I’m a layman. If I knew that, then the professionals should have as well. If you’re going to take that risk, then you better build to protect. Grier never did and now here we are. A bunch of shiny pieces and no solid base to plug it into.

 

I also think them being set super far back because of the contract is a bit of an oversell. Even if Tua wasn't under contract this team would still desperately need a rebuild.

 

Exactly.

I mean, people raged when we picked Ginn, but Ginn was the best pick of all time compared to taking Tua at 5 after that injury.

Tia shouldn't have been any higher than a 4th or 5th after that injury.

 

I saw somewhere yesterday that the Dolphins offered four 1st round draft picks to move up to #1 and get Burrow. Cinci wouldn't even consider it though and declined to talk further.

I don't know if that's 100% true or not, but at least we attempted to make the right move that draft.

There's been several outright busts in the 1st round- Dion Jordan, Igbinoghene, Ginn Jr, Austin Jackson, etc. I want to say Pat White as well but that was a 2nd rounder...it just stung since it was such a dumb reach. Other than Bob Griese (4th) Dion Jordan (3rd), Ronnie Brown (2nd overall), and Jake Long (1st overall), Tua was the highest pick and I can see why that would warp opinions.

We still paid more for Jordan though and didn't get anywhere near the productivity.

I mean, if you want to fault Ross, Grier, and the entire front office then I'd agree...maybe it was the dumbest pick ever. But that's not Tua's fault. The kid had a few good seasons and was a true leader, but his mind/body didn't cooperate.